scholarly journals Food security risk in Ukraine: assessment and forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Iryna Voronenko ◽  
Andriy Skrypnyk ◽  
Nataliia Klymenko ◽  
Dmytro Zherlitsyn ◽  
Yevhenii Starychenko
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Caloric Content ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Macroeconomic Instability ◽  
Security Index ◽  
Economic Indices ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. The paper’s purpose is to analyze and predict the food security index in Ukraine and to estimate the risk level of its reduction. Methodology / approach. The following models are used for forecasting: the Holt’s two-parameter model – to forecast the dynamics of caloric content of the daily diet and integral food security index; the ARIMA model – for modeling the food economic affordability. The autocorrelation function structure analysis is used to determine the adequacy of the models. The article discusses the procedure of assessing food security risk based on the properties of the econometric forecast error. The annual data of Ukraine were used for assessing the forecasts for the time interval between 1995 and 2018. Results. The paper presents the results of predicting the food security index in the context of macroeconomic instability. The trend (deterministic) and random components for the level of calorie consumption are revealed. The forecast of food availability is presented. The forecast estimates of the Food Security Index of Ukraine for the period up to 2022 are considered. The assessment of price elasticities, household incomes and inflation for basic food products is made. As a result of assessing the level of macroeconomic instability, the structural elements of food security for Ukraine were identified. The article assesses the dynamics of changes in consumption of certain commodity items of foodstuff as components of food security. There is a creation of an alternative methodology for forecasting individual economic indices in the absence of stable trends in the economy of the country based on the use of econometric analysis proposed in the research. It substantiates the use of multi-step methods of forecasting economic indices. It is proved that the integrated forecast of the food security index of Ukraine is in satisfactory state and shows a slight upward trend during the period 2020–2022, but the risks of a decline in the integral index are somewhere beyond satisfactory. Originality / scientific novelty. The results of the individual food security indices forecast, and the integral Food Security Index of Ukraine analysis it is possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change in the near future. The alternative forecasting method for individual economic parameters in conditions of the unstable national economy trends is firstly proposed. Practical value / implications. The reported forecast values indicate a decrease in the adequacy of consumption for most foodstuffs. This is most pronounced for the consumption of products of animal origin, which are far from the norm. The non-structural forecasts indicate current trends in the state of food security, which will persist if the impact on the food system by the general state of the country's economy remains unchanged. The main results of the study can be used to estimate the food affordability risks and risks of health deterioration for the population.

scholarly journals The Current State of the Agricultural Sector in the Context of Food Security in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-118
Author(s):  
Karina Utenkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Security Index ◽  
Global Food

Introduction. The article is devoted to the problems of agricultural development as a basis for ensuring food security in Ukraine. Food security is one of the important components of economic security, which creates a basis for further progress and development of the state. Achieving food security is one of the Global Goals for Sustainable Development by 2030, set by the UN to member countries at the Summit on Sustainable Development. The purpose of the article is to reveal the problems and prospects for the development of the agricultural sector in the context of ensuring food security in Ukraine. Results. It has been determined that the contribution of agricultural production to the GDP in Ukraine is quite significant. According to the results of 2018, 89% of agricultural enterprises have received a profit. The consumption of main types of food products by the population of Ukraine is less than the scientifically substantiated norms, namely: the actual consumption of meat is 64% of the norm; milk and dairy products – 52%; eggs – 94.8%; fish – 59%; fruits, berries and grapes – 53%. At the same time, there is a steady increase in the share of agricultural products in the structure of exports (in 2019 – 44.2%). According to the Global Food Security Index, Ukraine does not have the best positions and yields not only to all European countries, but also to those countries to which it exports food. Conclusions. Ukraine occupies the 76th out of 112 positions in the 2019 Global Food Security Index. Problems that pose potential threats to food security are acute, particularly, the lack of balance in the diet of Ukrainians. Due to the products of animal origin, the caloric value of the diet is provided only by 28% at the optimal level of 55%. The share of the population’s expenditures on food products is unacceptably high: more than half of the total aggregate expenditures, which is higher than the similar indicators of the EU countries by 3-5 times. The increase in agricultural production should take place in compliance with environmental norms and international food quality standards.

scholarly journals Changes in Eating Behaviors During COVID-19 and Association With Food Insecurity: Results From a Nation-Wide Online Survey

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 202-202
Author(s):  
Shahmir Ali ◽  
Niyati Parekh ◽  
Ariadna Capasso ◽  
Yesim Tozan ◽  
Abbey Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Eating Behaviors ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Household Food Security ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives The COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed both a health and economic crisis in the US, with growing concerns on how eating behaviors and food security (risk factors of non-communicable disease) have changed. This study examines changes in food insecurity and eating behaviors during the early months of the pandemic among US adults. Methods A nationwide survey of US adults was conducted in April 2020 through social-media advertisement-based recruitment to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Food insecurity was measured using a six-item validated USDA Household Food Security instrument. Eating behaviors were assessed by asking participants how their eating has changed since the pandemic (“Much More” to “Much Less”). Sociodemographic differences in food behaviors were assessed with chi-square tests, and an adjusted logistic regression model evaluated the association between food insecurity and eating behaviors. Results Overall, 5256 participants had data on eating behaviors; 58.6% were female, 43.8% aged 40–59 years old, and 56.4% were employed. Eating remained unchanged for most participants (52.7%), while 34.6% noted eating more, and 12.7% noted eating less since the pandemic. 85.3% of participants displayed high/marginal food insecurity, while 14.7% displayed low/very-low food security. Compared to those eating more during the pandemic, those eating less were more likely to be younger (24.7% vs. 17.4% aged 18–39), male (42.0% vs. 33.4%), not working, or unemployed (17.1% vs. 13.7%), and make <$30,000 a year (20.7% vs. 12.6%). When adjusting for socio-demographic variables, compared to those whose eating behavior did not change, the adjusted odds of low/very-low food insecurity was higher among both those who were eating less (AOR:6.44, 95%CI:4.96–8.37) and eating more (AOR:1.67, 95%CI:1.33–2.09). Conclusions Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed significant food insecurity, with food insecurity being associated with bidirectional changes in food consumption. Public health professionals must critically examine the various contributors of eating behaviors during the pandemic and their link with food insecurity to develop targeted interventions. Funding Sources N/A

scholarly journals Impact of Antibiotics Residues on Food Microbiological Quality in Togo: Cases of Chicken Meat and Eggs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banfitebiyi GAMBOGOU ◽  
Abla Judith Estelle GNAMEY ◽  
Raouf T. MENSAH ◽  
Délia Carmen DIABANGOUAYA ◽  
Messanh KANGNI-DOSSOU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Microbiological Quality ◽  
Chicken Meat ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Antibiotic Residues ◽  
Bacteriological Quality ◽  
Antibiotics Residues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Meat And Eggs

Abstract Purpose: The use of antibiotics in veterinary medicine has greatly promoted the intensification of animal production in recent decades. However, the improper use of these veterinary antibiotics causes their residues to be present in foodstuffs of animal origin and thus creates public health issues. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the impact of the presence of antibiotic residues on bacteriological quality of meat and chicken eggs in Togo.Methodology: a survey was carried out among hundred chicken farmers in six markets in the city of Lomé. Then, AFNOR's routine method and the rapid Test method (Premi test) were used to assess the bacteriological quality and the presence of antibiotics in Chicken meats (54 samples) and eggs (36 samples). The statistical analysis is done with software SPSS v25.Results: The results of surveys of our operators have shown that broilers and laying hens are the most represented in the six markets. None of the interviewees ever received any training in biosecurity, food security and good hygiene practice. Out of 90 samples analyzed, 18.89% are positive for antibiotic residues with 99.51% of correlation between antibiotic residues and origin of the sample (p<0.05). Regarding microbiological quality, 16,7% (13/78) of compliance sample are positive to antibiotic residues and 33.3% (4/12) of no compliance sample are positive for antibiotic residues with 92.91% of correlation between microbiology quality and antibiotics residues (p <0.05).Conclusion: The presence of antibiotic residues in the chicken meat and eggs influence the detection of microorganisms. This leads to a food security problem in Togo.

scholarly journals Impact of Credit access and Cooperative membership on Food Security of Rural Households in Southwestern, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayodeji Kehinde ◽  
Mary Kehinde
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
Household Size ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Southwestern Nigeria ◽  
Credit Access ◽  
Binary Logit ◽  
Security Index ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of credit access and cooperative membership on food security of rural households in Southwestern Nigeria. A multi stage sampling procedure was employed to select 300 rural households for the study. Data were analyzed using food security index, binary logit model, propensity score matching (PSM) and Augmented inverse probability weighting model (AIPW). Binary logit estimate reveals that age, household size, years of education, farm size, farm income and non-farm income significantly influenced the likelihood of rural households being members of cooperatives while household size, years of education, farm size, gender, asset and farm income significantly influenced the likelihood of rural households’ access to credit. Food security index revealed that about 66 percent of the households are food insecure. PSM revealed that cooperative membership and credit access is expected to increase the food security of rural households by approximately 1446 and 1496 kilocalories per person per day, respectively. AIPW revealed that cooperative membership and credit access is expected to increase the food security of rural households by approximately 1888 and 1899 kilocalories per person per day, respectively. The study concluded that credit access and cooperative membership has a positive and significant impact on food security of rural households. Thus, any programmes targeted at ensuring rural households’ food security, particularly southwest should take into cognizance their credit access and cooperative membership.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on the household food security of upland rice farmers in Sidomulyo, Lampung Province, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ktut Murniati ◽  
Abdul Mutolib
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Upland Rice ◽  
Household Food Security ◽  
Rice Farmers ◽  
Household Food ◽  
Security Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Murniati K, Mutolib A. 2020. The impact of climate change on the household food security of upland rice farmers in Sidomulyo, Lampung Province, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 3487-3493.  Climate change in the agricultural sector, particularly food crops, significantly decreases the production, causing the anomaly influences of El-Niño (drought) and La-Nina (flood). Climate change will have an impact on food availability and accessibility, thereby disrupting the food security and vulnerability of farmer households. This study aimed to: analyze the livelihood vulnerabilities, determine the food security level, and assess the livelihood vulnerability on the food security of upland rice farmer households against climate change. This study was conducted in Sidomulyo Sub-district, South Lampung District. The samples were randomly selected among farmers, resulting in 66 selected farmers. The analysis included: the livelihood vulnerability index– intergovernmental panel of climate change (LVI-IPCC), food security index based on the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, and the Ordinal Model Logit (Ologit). The results showed that the upland rice farmer’s household had a livelihood vulnerability of 0.071, belonged to the medium category.  Most farmer households (77.27%) were categorized as food secure.   The “secure” category in the food security index is obtained if the upland rice farmers fulfill three criteria includes food availability, food stability, and food sustainability.  The strategy of climate change adaptation, rice price, and phonska fertilizer price affects the food security of farmers’ households.  Climate change adaptation strategies are indispensable for sustainable food security.

Food Security Indices In Ukraine: Forecast Methods And Trends

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yevhenii Starychenko ◽  
Andriy Skrypnyk ◽  
Vitalina Babenko ◽  
Nataliia Klymenko ◽  
Kateryna Tuzhyk
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Satisfactory Condition ◽  
Security Index ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Integrated Food Security

The paper offers the calculation procedure of the integrated Food Security Index (FSI) based on the three-component analysis: economic accessibility, physical security, the sufficiency of consumption. It offers the methodology for forecasting under the conditions of macroeconomic instability based on the Food Security Indices. It shows that the standard forecasting methodology based on the separation of trend (deterministic) and random components cannot be applied in conditions of alternating intervals of economic growth and crises. In particular emphasis is placed on Jackson-Watson's methodology, which is based on the analysis of the internal structure of the process. The three-parameter ARIMA model was used in the forecast estimates of the Food Security Indices. The applied methods are complemented by exponential smoothing, damped trend model, linear and exponential smoothing, namely, Brown method, and two-parameter smoothing method (Holt's method), Pearl-Reed curve model. The research offers a food security risk assessment procedure in virtue of the econometric forecast error properties. Based on data mining, the results of forecasting the individual indices and the integrated Food Security Index make it possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change shortly.

Role of Credit Rating in determining Capital structure: Evidence from Non-Financial sector of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Muhammad Naveed
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Capital Structure

This paper aims to examine the impact of external credit ratings on the financial decisions of the firms in Pakistan.  This study uses the annual data of 70 non-financial firms for the period 2012-2018. It uses ordinary least square (OLS) to estimate the impact of credit rating on capital structure. The results show that rated firm has a high level of leverage. Moreover, Profitability and tanagability are also found to be a significantly negative determinant of the capital structure, whereas, size of the firm has a significant positive relationship with the capital structure of the firm.  Besides, there exists a non-linear relationship between the credit rating and the capital structure. The rated firms have higher leverage as compared to the non-rated firms. The high and low rated firms have a low level of leverage, while mid rated firms have a higher leverage ratio. The finding of the study have practical implications for the manager; they can have easier access to the financial market by just having a credit rating no matter high or low. Policymakers must stress upon the rating agencies to keep improving themselves as their rating severs as the measure to judge the creditworthiness of the firm by both the investors and management as well.

Remittances, Economic Growth and Poverty: A Case of African OIC Member Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-143
Author(s):  
Nasim Shah Shirazi ◽  
Sajid Amin Javed ◽  
Dawood Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of remittance inflows on economic growth and poverty reduction for seven African countries using annual data from 1992-2010. By using the depth of hunger as a proxy for poverty in a Simultaneous Equation Model (SEM), we find that remittances have statistically significant growth enhancing and poverty reducing impact. Drawing on our estimates, we conclude that financial development level significantly increases the remittances inflows and strengthens poverty alleviating impact of remittances. Results of our study further show a signficant interactive imapct of remittances and finacial develpment on economic growth, suggesting the substitutability between remittance inflows and financial development. We further find that 3 percentage point increase in credit provision to the private sector (financial development) can help eliminate the severe depth of hunger in the region. Remittances, serving an alternative source of private credit, can be effective in this regard. Keywords: Remittance Inflow, Poverty Alleviation, Financial Development, Simultaneous Equation Model

THE IMPACT OF STATE REGULATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ON FOOD SECURITY IN RUSSIA

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-54
Author(s):  
Vladimir Ivanovich Hajduk ◽  
S.A. Kalitko ◽  
Y.A. Nikiforova ◽  
M.G. Paremuzova
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
The Impact
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