scholarly journals Effects of black carbon mitigation on Arctic climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 5527-5546
Author(s):  
Thomas Kühn ◽  
Kaarle Kupiainen ◽  
Tuuli Miinalainen ◽  
Harri Kokkola ◽  
Ville-Veikko Paunu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Member States ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract. We use the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulfate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower troposphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about −0.4 W m−2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol–cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC- and OC-containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime and counteracts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally, the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that originate from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the TM5-FASST model to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions for human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global number of premature deaths by 329 000 by the year 2030, which amounts to 9 % of the total global premature deaths due to particulate matter.

scholarly journals Effects of Black Carbon Mitigation on Arctic Climate

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kühn ◽  
Kaarle Kupiainen ◽  
Tuuli Miinalainen ◽  
Harri Kokkola ◽  
Ville-Veikko Paunu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Council Member ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Member States ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract. We use the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulphate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower atmosphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about 0.4 W/m2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol-cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC and OC containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime, and counter-acts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that origin from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the model TM5-FASST to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions on human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global amount of premature deaths by 339 000 by 2030.

scholarly journals Assessment of co-benefits of black carbon emission reduction measures in Southeast Asia: Part 2 emission scenarios for 2030 and co-benefits on mitigation of air pollution and climate forcing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didin Agustian Permadi ◽  
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh ◽  
Robert Vautard
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Premature Deaths

Abstract. Following Part 1 (Permadi et al., 2017a) which focuses on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF/CHIMERE performance in 2007, this paper presents Part 2 of our research detailing the quantification of co-benefits resulted in the future (2030) from black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries. The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007) assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past decadal activity data (Indonesia and Thailand) and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emission in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (on-road transport, residential cooking, industry, and biomass open burning) while for other countries the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF/CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the SEA domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ/INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD assuming the internal mixing state for the two future scenarios. Health benefits were analyzed in term of the avoided number of premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction while the climate benefits were quantified using the reduction in the BC radiative forcing under RED2030. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100,000 population in the domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut-down (avoided) by 59 from the RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC radiative forcing in SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2 which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial co-benefits on human health and BC climate forcing reduction in SEA could be resulted from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other benefits such as for the agricultural crop production, and the cost benefit analysis of the measures implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.

scholarly journals Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3321-3334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didin Agustian Permadi ◽  
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh ◽  
Robert Vautard
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF–CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming “no intervention” with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF–CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2, which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production, and the cost–benefit analysis of the measures' implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.

The Arctic Council and the Search and Rescue Agreement: the case of Norway

Polar Record ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svein Vigeland Rottem
Keyword(s):  
Search And Rescue ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Member States ◽  
Key Features ◽  
Binding Agreement

ABSTRACTOn 12 May 2011 at the seventh ministerial meeting, the member states of the Arctic Council (AC) signed the Arctic SAR agreement, the first legally binding agreement negotiated under the auspices of the AC. Its objective is to strengthen search and rescue cooperation and coordination in the Arctic. The purpose of this article is to explore why an agreement on search and rescue under the auspices of the AC has been negotiated; what its key features are; and lastly, how it is and will be implemented. It is argued that the SAR agreement is more important for the AC than for Norway. It has had limited practical consequences in that country. The agreement may be politically and symbolically significant but it has neither financially nor organisationally changed Norwegian search and rescue policy.

scholarly journals ARCTIC SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING RUSSIAN CHAIRMANSHIP AT THE ARCTIC COUNCIL

2021 ◽  
Vol 228 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-235
Author(s):  
JULIA V. ZVORYKINA ◽  
◽  
KIRILL S. TETERYATNIKOV ◽  
DANEK А. PAVLOVSKY ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
International Law ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Member States ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article is meant to analyze new opportunities of the forthcoming presidency of the Russian Federation in the Arctic Council designed to implement the Arctic Development Strategy of the Russian Federation, strengthen international cooperation and give a new impetus to largescale national and international sustainable development projects in the Arctic, focused on improving the resilience of the environment and population of the Council member states. The authors considered the approaches to formulation of sustainable development priorities in international law and Russian legislation, peculiarities of sustainable development projects in the Arctic, prospective directions of Russian chairmanship in the Arctic Council taking into account postpandemic development of the world economy. Relevant proposals and recommendations on specific areas of cooperation and major projects that could be implemented in the interests of all member states of the Arctic Council are given. A proposal for Arctic Development Bank foundation has been put forward and substantiated.

Iceland: A Small Arctic State Facing Big Arctic Changes

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margrét Cela
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Member States ◽  
Sovereign State ◽  
Priority Area ◽  
Arctic State ◽  
A Priority ◽  
Policy Fields

Abstract Iceland is one of eight member states of the Arctic Council and claims to be the only sovereign state that is entirely located in the Arctic. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that the region has gained a priority status in Iceland’s foreign policy. The developments in the Arctic will inevitably affect the country in one way or the other. This paper is divided into three sections; the first one discusses recent internal and external developments. The second section is about three different aspects of security, traditional, human and environmental, and furthermore, discusses those types of security in Icelandic context. The last section is on Iceland’s priorities in the Arctic, which are then measured against Lassi Heininen’s policy fields or indicators, and Arctic solutions presented by Alyson Bailes. Main conclusions are that even though Iceland has been going through challenging times in the resent years, the Arctic still remains somewhat a priority area, policy wise, and the Icelandic priorities, for the most part, fit within the frameworks of Arctic solutions and the policy fields they are measured against.

scholarly journals HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciao-Kai Liang ◽  
J. Jason West ◽  
Raquel A. Silva ◽  
Huisheng Bian ◽  
Mian Chin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Pollution Transport ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract. Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We build on results from previous studies of the TF-HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 emissions, with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290,000 (95 % CI: 30,000, 600,000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. In addition, EUR, MDE and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extraregional mortality is estimated as 10,300 (6,700, 13,400) deaths/year and 42,000 (12,400, 60,100) deaths/year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

scholarly journals United States Resists Efforts to Have the Arctic Council Make Climate-Related Statement

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 831-833
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Member States ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Related Statement

The Arctic Council convened for the eleventh time in early May 2019 in Rovaniemi, Finland, for a two-day conference. On May 7, the Arctic Council released a Joint Ministerial Statement that affirmed the desire of the eight member states to work together to face upcoming challenges but made no substantive commitments and no mention of climate change. In remarks to the Council, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed wariness about collective decision making and warned against potential effects of Chinese activity in the Arctic.

scholarly journals HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 10497-10520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciao-Kai Liang ◽  
J. Jason West ◽  
Raquel A. Silva ◽  
Huisheng Bian ◽  
Mian Chin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract. Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air-pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone and the avoided deaths due to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, power and industry (PIN), ground transportation (TRN), and residential (RES), and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF HTAP2), and epidemiologically derived concentration response functions. We build on results from previous studies of TF HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290 000 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 30 000, 600 000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O3-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS, and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE, and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6000 (−3400, 15 500) deaths per year and 25 100 (8200, 35 800) deaths per year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

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