scholarly journals Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Allen ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
David Neubauer ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
North Asia ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. Over the next few decades, policies that optimally address both climate change and air quality are essential. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone and precursor gases (but not methane), should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. How future policies affect the abundance of NTCFs and their impact on climate and air quality remains uncertain. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak versus strong levels of air quality control measures. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decrease by −15 % and −25 %, respectively, over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.24 K and 1.1 %, respectively, with similar increases in extreme weather indices. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting trends occur over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.56 K and 2.1 %), south Asia (0.48 K and 4.6 %) and east Asia (0.44 K and 4.7 %). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occurs at 0.41 K and 2.1 %, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality, but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet mitigation goals.

scholarly journals Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (16) ◽  
pp. 9641-9663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Allen ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
David Neubauer ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
North Asia ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by -2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and -4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

scholarly journals Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (21) ◽  
pp. 31385-31432
Author(s):  
Y. H. Lee ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
G. Faluvegi ◽  
R. W. Pinder
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Indirect Forcing

Abstract. We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that reduces 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using NASA GISS ModelE2, we look at the impacts in year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions and the rest of the world emissions are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in the future but result in positive radiative forcing. Surface PM2.5 is reduced by ~ 2 μg m−3 on average over the US, and surface ozone by ~ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the US, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (~ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduces the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) by both aerosols direct and indirect forcing: total RF is ~ 0.04 W m−2 over the globe; ~ 0.8 W m−2 over the US. Under the hypothetical climate policy, future US energy relies less on coal and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it leads to climate dis-benefits over the US. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m−2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is −0.06 W m−2 due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multi-national efforts to reduce GHGs emissions and (2) to target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides co-benefits to air quality and public health.

scholarly journals Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (D22) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Katragkou ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
I. Kioutsioukis ◽  
I. Tegoulias ◽  
D. Melas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Surface ozone and its precursors at Summit, Greenland: comparison between observations and model simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 14661-14674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaoxian Huang ◽  
Shiliang Wu ◽  
Louisa J. Kramer ◽  
Detlev Helmig ◽  
Richard E. Honrath
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The Us ◽  
Coarse Model

Abstract. Recent studies have shown significant challenges for atmospheric models to simulate tropospheric ozone (O3) and its precursors in the Arctic. In this study, ground-based data were combined with a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to examine the abundance and seasonal variations of O3 and its precursors at Summit, Greenland (72.34° N, 38.29° W; 3212 m a.s.l.). Model simulations for atmospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), ethane (C2H6), propane (C3H8), carbon monoxide (CO), and O3 for the period July 2008–June 2010 were compared with observations. The model performed well in simulating certain species (such as CO and C3H8), but some significant discrepancies were identified for other species and further investigated. The model generally underestimated NOx and PAN (by  ∼  50 and 30 %, respectively) for March–June. Likely contributing factors to the low bias include missing NOx and PAN emissions from snowpack chemistry in the model. At the same time, the model overestimated NOx mixing ratios by more than a factor of 2 in wintertime, with episodic NOx mixing ratios up to 15 times higher than the typical NOx levels at Summit. Further investigation showed that these simulated episodic NOx spikes were always associated with transport events from Europe, but the exact cause remained unclear. The model systematically overestimated C2H6 mixing ratios by approximately 20 % relative to observations. This discrepancy can be resolved by decreasing anthropogenic C2H6 emissions over Asia and the US by  ∼ 20 %, from 5.4 to 4.4 Tg year−1. GEOS-Chem was able to reproduce the seasonal variability of O3 and its spring maximum. However, compared with observations, it underestimated surface O3 by approximately 13 % (6.5 ppbv) from April to July. This low bias appeared to be driven by several factors including missing snowpack emissions of NOx and nitrous acid in the model, the weak simulated stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange flux of O3 over the summit, and the coarse model resolution.

scholarly journals Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 10271-10311 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Corbett ◽  
D. A. Lack ◽  
J. J. Winebrake ◽  
S. Harder ◽  
J. A. Silberman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Coverage ◽  
Arctic Shipping ◽  
Rich Natural Resource ◽  
Emissions Inventories

Abstract. The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

scholarly journals Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (23) ◽  
pp. 7101-7113 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Shindell ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
N. Unger ◽  
D. Koch ◽  
G. Faluvegi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
North America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Economic Sector ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Fuel Burning ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Domestic Fuel

Abstract. We examine the air quality (AQ) and radiative forcing (RF) response to emissions reductions by economic sector for North America and developing Asia in the CAM and GISS composition/climate models. Decreases in annual average surface particulate are relatively robust, with intermodel variations in magnitude typically <30% and very similar spatial structure. Surface ozone responses are small and highly model dependent. The largest net RF results from reductions in emissions from the North America industrial/power and developing Asia domestic fuel burning sectors. Sulfate reductions dominate the first case, for which intermodel variations in the sulfate (or total) aerosol optical depth (AOD) responses are ~30% and the modeled spatial patterns of the AOD reductions are highly correlated (R=0.9). Decreases in BC dominate the developing Asia domestic fuel burning case, and show substantially greater model-to-model differences. Intermodel variations in tropospheric ozone burden changes are also large, though aerosol changes dominate those cases with substantial net climate forcing. The results indicate that across-the-board emissions reductions in domestic fuel burning in developing Asia and in surface transportation in North America are likely to offer the greatest potential for substantial, simultaneous improvement in local air quality and near-term mitigation of global climate change via short-lived species. Conversely, reductions in industrial/power emissions have the potential to accelerate near-term warming, though they would improve AQ and have a long-term cooling effect on climate. These broad conclusions appear robust to intermodel differences.

scholarly journals Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanji Wang ◽  
Jeffrey Key ◽  
Yinghui Liu ◽  
Charles Fowler ◽  
James Maslanik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Surface Warming

Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

scholarly journals Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 11609-11642 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Shindell ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
N. Unger ◽  
D. Koch ◽  
G. Faluveg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
North America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Economic Sector ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Fuel Burning ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Domestic Fuel

Abstract. We examine the air quality (AQ) and radiative forcing (RF) response to emissions reductions by economic sector for North America and developing Asia in the CAM and GISS composition/climate models. Decreases in annual average surface particulate are relatively robust, with intermodel variations in magnitude typically <30% and very similar spatial structure. Surface ozone responses are small and highly model dependent. The largest net RF results from reductions in emissions from the North America industrial/power and developing Asia domestic fuel burning sectors. Sulfate reductions dominate the first case, for which intermodel variations in the sulfate (or total) aerosol optical depth (AOD) responses are ~30% and the modeled spatial patterns of the AOD reductions are highly correlated (R=0.9). Decreases in BC dominate the developing Asia domestic fuel burning case, and show substantially greater model-to-model differences. Intermodel variations in tropospheric ozone burdens are also large, though aerosol changes dominate those cases with substantial net climate forcing. The results indicate that across-the-board emissions reductions in domestic fuel burning in developing Asia and in surface transportation in North America are likely to offer the greatest potential for substantial, simultaneous improvement in local air quality and near-term mitigation of global climate change via short-lived species. Conversely, reductions in industrial/power emissions have the potential to accelerate near-term warming, though they would improve AQ and have a long-term cooling effect on climate. These broad conclusions appear robust to intermodel differences.

scholarly journals Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Allen ◽  
Larry Horowitz ◽  
Vaishali Naik ◽  
Naga Oshima ◽  
Fiona O'Connor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Methane Mitigation ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Reactive Gases

&lt;p&gt;Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality--so called &quot;win-win&quot; mitigation policies. &amp;#160; Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. &amp;#160;Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. &amp;#160;Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. &amp;#160;NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. &amp;#160;This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Balancing Waste and Nutrient Flows Between Urban Agglomerations and Rural Ecosystems: Biochar for Improving Crop Growth and Urban Air Quality in The Mediterranean Region

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 539
Author(s):  
Anastasia Zabaniotou ◽  
Katerina Stamou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Urban Agglomerations ◽  
The Mediterranean

Mediterranean ecosystems are threatened by water and nutrient scarcity and continuous loss of soil organic carbon. Urban agglomerations and rural ecosystems in the Mediterranean region and globally are interlinked through the flows of resources/nutrients and wastes. Contributing to balancing these cycles, the present study advocates standardized biochar as a soil amendment, produced from Mediterranean suitable biowaste, for closing the nutrient loop in agriculture, with parallel greenhouse gas reduction, enhancing air quality in urban agglomerations, mitigating climate change. The study’s scope is the contextualization of pyrolytic conditions and biowaste type effects on the yield and properties of biochar and to shed light on biochar’s role in soil fertility and climate change mitigation. Mediterranean-type suitable feedstocks (biowaste) to produce biochar, in accordance with biomass feedstocks approved for use in producing biochar by the European Biochar Certificate, are screened. Data form large-scale and long-period field experiments are considered. The findings advocate the following: (a) pyrolytic biochar application in soils contributes to the retention of important nutrients for agricultural production, thereby reducing the use of fertilizers; (b) pyrolysis does not release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, contributing positively to the balance of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, with carbon uptake by plant photosynthesis; (c) biochar stores carbon in soils, counterbalancing the effect of climate change by sequestering carbon; (d) there is an imperative need to identify the suitable feedstock for the production of sustainable and safe biochar from a range of biowaste, according to the European Biochar Certificate, for safe crop production.

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