scholarly journals Global modeling studies of composition and decadal trends of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 2745-2764
Author(s):  
Adriana Bossolasco ◽  
Fabrice Jegou ◽  
Pasquale Sellitto ◽  
Gwenaël Berthet ◽  
Corinna Kloss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Module

Abstract. The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) traps convectively lifted boundary layer pollutants inside its upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). It is associated with a seasonal and spatially confined enhanced aerosol layer, called the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). Due to the dynamical variability of the AMA, the dearth of in situ observations in this region, the complexity of the emission sources and of transport pathways, knowledge of the ATAL properties in terms of aerosol budget, chemical composition, as well as its variability and temporal trend is still largely uncertain. In this work, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.2 version) based on the coupling of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) and the MAM7 (Modal Aerosol Model) aerosol module to simulate the composition of the ATAL and its decadal trends. Our simulations cover a long-term period of 16 years from 2000 to 2015. We identify a typical “double-peak” vertical profile of aerosols for the ATAL. We attribute the upper peak (around 100 hPa, predominant during early ATAL, e.g., in June) to dry aerosols, possibly from nucleation processes, and the lower peak (around 250 hPa, predominant for a well-developed and late ATAL, e.g., in July and August) to cloud-borne aerosols associated with convective clouds. We find that mineral dust (present in both peaks) is the dominant aerosol by mass in the ATAL, showing a large interannual variability but no long-term trend, due to its natural variability. The results between 120 and 80 hPa (dry aerosol peak) suggest that for aerosols other than dust the ATAL is composed of around 40 % of sulfate, 30 % of secondary and 15 % of primary organic aerosols, 14 % of ammonium aerosols and less than 3 % of black carbon. Nitrate aerosols are not considered in MAM7. The analysis of the anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols shows a positive trend for all aerosols simulated by CESM-MAM7.

scholarly journals Global modelling studies of composition and decadal trends of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana Bossolasco ◽  
Fabrice Jegou ◽  
Pasquale Sellitto ◽  
Gwenaël Berthet ◽  
Corinna Kloss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
Modelling Studies

Abstract. The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) traps convectively-lifted boundary layer pollutants inside its upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). It is associated with a seasonal and spatially-confined enhanced aerosol layer, called the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). The knowledge of the ATAL properties in terms of aerosol budget, chemical composition, as well as its variability and temporal trend is still largely uncertain, due to the dynamical variability of the AMA, the dearth of in situ observations in this region, the complex transport pathways of pollutants and its atmospheric chemical processes. In this work, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.2 version) based on the coupling of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) and the MAM7 (Modal Aerosol Model) aerosol module to simulate the composition of the ATAL and its decadal trends. Our simulations cover a long-term period of 16 years from 2000 to 2015. We identify a double-peak aerosols vertical profile for the ATAL. We attribute the upper peak (around 100 hPa, predominant during early ATAL in June) to dry aerosols, possibly from nucleation processes and the lower peak (around 250 hPa, predominant for a well-developed and late ATAL, in July and August) to cloud-borne aerosols associated with convective clouds. We find that mineral dust is the dominant aerosol by mass in the ATAL showing a large interannual variability, but no long-term trend, due to its natural variation. The results between 120–80 hPa (dry aerosol peak) suggest that for aerosols other than dust the ATAL is composed of around 40 % of sulfate, 30% of secondary and 15 % of primary organic aerosols, 14 % of ammonium aerosols and less than 3 % of black carbon. The analysis of the anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols shows a positive trend for all aerosols simulated by CESM-MAM7.

Long-term trends and transport of surface pollutants to UTLS  during the Asian summer monsoon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William K.M. Lau ◽  
Kyu-Myong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Asian Summer

<p>Using MERRA2 reanalyses, we have examined the long-term (2000-2019) trends and transport of surface pollutants, CO, BC and OC from surface to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon.    We find a strong linear trend indicating an expansion and strengthening of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA), in conjunction with increased concentration of CO, BC and OC in the UTLS, including the Aerosol Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). </p><p>The UTLS trend in CO can be tracked to increased upward transport primarily from surface sources near 25-35<sup>o</sup>N, in association with the expansion/strengthening of the AMA, and a northward displacement of ascending branch of the monsoon meridional circulation.  In contrast, near 25-35<sup>o</sup>N, BC and OC trends show significant reduction from surface to mid-troposphere, coupled a weak increase at UTLS (above 250 -100 hPa).  The reduction in surface and tropospheric BC and OC likely reflects reduced emission due to the clean air acts in East Asia.  Additionally, heavier rainfall associated with the enhanced ascent and wet scavenging may also contribute to the strong reduction in tropospheric BC and OC.  The increase in UTLS OC/BC appears to stem from increased and extended biomass burning near surface sources located in extratropical latitudes (70-130<sup>o</sup> E, 55-70<sup>o</sup> N).  The OC/BC aerosols are transported upward by vertical mixing over the source regions, and enter the tropical UTLS through horizonal diffusive processes.   Additionally, enhanced penetrative convection in the anomalous ascent regions during the peak monsoon season may also play a role in further enhancing the monsoon ascent, lifting ambient hydrophobic OC/BC and water vapor in the mid-to-upper troposphere to higher elevations, resulting in enhanced ice-cloud fraction, increased latent and radiative heating in the UTLS/ATAL region.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Simulation study on the indirect effect of sulfate on the summer climate over the eastern China monsoon region

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Hongbo Wang ◽  
Li Sun
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model

AbstractIn this study, we designed a sensitivity test using the half number concentration of sulfate in the nucleation calculation process to study the aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) of sulfate on clouds, precipitation, and monsoon intensity in the summer over the eastern China monsoon region (ECMR) with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5. Numerical experiments show that the ACI of sulfate led to an approximately 30% and 34% increase in the cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplet number concentrations, respectively. Cloud droplet effective radius below 850 hPa decreased by approximately 4% in the southern ECMR, while the total liquid water path increased by 11%. The change in the indirect radiative forcing due to sulfate at the top of the atmosphere in the ECMR during summer was − 3.74 W·m−2. The decreased radiative forcing caused a surface cooling of 0.32 K and atmospheric cooling of approximately 0.3 K, as well as a 0.17 hPa increase in sea level pressure. These changes decreased the thermal difference between the land and sea and the gradient of the sea-land pressure, leading to a weakening in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and a decrease in the total precipitation rate in the southern ECMR. The cloud lifetime effect has a relatively weaker contribution to summer precipitation, which is dominated by convection. The results show that the ACI of sulfate was one possible reason for the weakening of the EASM in the late 1970s.

scholarly journals Inter-annual and seasonal trends of vegetation condition in the Upper Blue Nile (Abay) Basin: dual-scale time series analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 617-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Teferi ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
W. Bewket
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Seasonal Trends ◽  
Modis Ndvi ◽  
Vegetation Condition ◽  
Gimms Ndvi

Abstract. A long-term decline in ecosystem functioning and productivity, often called land degradation, is a serious environmental challenge to Ethiopia that needs to be understood so as to develop sustainable land use strategies. This study examines inter-annual and seasonal trends of vegetation cover in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) or Abbay Basin. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-based Global Inventory, Monitoring, and Modeling Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used for long-term vegetation trend analysis at low spatial resolution. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data (MOD13Q1) were used for medium-scale vegetation trend analysis. Harmonic analyses and non-parametric trend tests were applied to both GIMMS NDVI (1981–2006) and MODIS NDVI (2001–2011) data sets. Based on a robust trend estimator (Theil–Sen slope), most parts of the UBN (~ 77 %) showed a positive trend in monthly GIMMS NDVI, with a mean rate of 0.0015 NDVI units (3.77 % yr−1), out of which 41.15 % of the basin depicted significant increases (p < 0.05), with a mean rate of 0.0023 NDVI units (5.59 % yr−1) during the period. However, the MODIS-based vegetation trend analysis revealed that about 36 % of the UBN showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05) over the period 2001–2011 at an average rate of 0.0768 NDVI yr−1. This indicates that the greening trend of the vegetation condition was followed by decreasing trend since the mid-2000s in the basin, which requires the attention of land users and decision makers. Seasonal trend analysis was found to be very useful to identify changes in vegetation condition that could be masked if only inter-annual vegetation trend analysis was performed. Over half (60 %) of the Abay Basin was found to exhibit significant trends in seasonality over the 25-year period (1982–2006). About 17 and 16 % of the significant trends consisted of areas experiencing a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year and extended growing season, respectively. These areas were found primarily in shrubland and woodland regions. The study demonstrated that integrated analysis of inter-annual and intra-annual trends based on GIMMS and MODIS enables a more robust identification of changes in vegetation condition.

scholarly journals Long-term changes of the ice regime of rivers in Latvia

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 782-798
Author(s):  
Inese Latkovska ◽  
Elga Apsīte ◽  
Didzis Elferts
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Ice Regime

The ice regime of rivers is considered a sensitive indicator of climate change. This paper summarises the results of research on the long-term changes in the ice regime parameters under changing climate conditions and their regional peculiarities in Latvia from 1945 to 2012. The ice cover duration on Latvian rivers has decreased during recent decades. The research results demonstrated that there is a positive trend as regards the formation of the ice cover and in 31.8% of the cases the trend is statistically significant at p &lt; 0.05. As regards the breaking up of ice, there is a statistically significant negative trend in 93.2% of the cases at p &lt; 0.05. This indicates an earlier ice break-up date, which in turn, displays a strong correlation with the increase of the air temperature. The same pattern applies to the reduction of the length of ice cover (a statistically significant trend in 86.4% of the cases at p &lt; 0.05). In approximately 60% of the cases, there is a statistically significant reduction of the ice thickness. The estimated winter severity index indicates warmer winters over the last 20 years as well as regional differences in the west–east direction.

scholarly journals A curved multi-component aerosol hygroscopicity model framework: 1 – Inorganics

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 8627-8676 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. O. Topping ◽  
G. B. McFiggans ◽  
H. Coe
Keyword(s):  
Surface Tension ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Dry Density ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Systematic Uncertainties ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Models Comparison

Abstract. A thermodynamic modelling framework to predict the equilibrium behaviour of mixed inorganic salt aerosols is developed, and then coupled with a technique for finding a solution to the Köhler equation in order to create a diameter dependent hygroscopic aerosol model (Aerosol Diameter Dependent Equilibrium Model – ADDEM). The model described here provides a robust and accurate inorganic basis using a mole fraction based activity coefficient model and adjusted energies of formation for treating solid precipitation. The model framework can accommodate organic components, though this added complexity is considered in a companion paper, whereas this paper describes the development of the modelling architecture to be used and predictions of an inorganic model alone. The modelling framework has been developed to flexibly use a combination of mixing rules and other potentially more accurate techniques where available to calculate the water content. Comparisons with other state-of-the-art general equilibrium models and experimental data are presented and show excellent agreement. The Kelvin effect can be considered in this scheme using a variety of surface tension models. Comparison of predicted diameter dependent phenomena, such as the increased relative humidity for onset of deliquescence with decreasing diameter, with another diameter dependent model is very good despite the different approach used. The model is subject to various sensitivities. For the inorganic systems studied here, the model is sensitive to choice of surface tension scheme used, which decreases for larger aerosol. Large sensitivities are found for the value of dry density used. It is thus likely that the history of the aerosol studied in a hygroscopic tandem differential mobility analyser (HTDMA), specifically the nature of the drying process that will influence the final crystalline form, will create systematic uncertainties upon comparisons with theoretical predictions. However, the magnitudes of all of the above sensitivities are potentially less than those introduced when using a semi ideal growth factor analogue for certain conditions.

scholarly journals High-resolution optical constants of crystalline ammonium nitrate for infrared remote sensing of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Wagner ◽  
Baptiste Testa ◽  
Michael Höpfner ◽  
Alexei Kiselev ◽  
Ottmar Möhler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ammonium Nitrate ◽  
Optical Constants ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Complex Refractive Index ◽  
Extinction Spectrum ◽  
Stable Phase ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Tropospheric Aerosol ◽  
Infrared Measurements

Abstract. Infrared spectroscopic observations have shown that crystalline ammonium nitrate (AN) particles are an abundant constituent of the upper tropospheric aerosol layer which is formed during the Asian summer monsoon period, the so-called Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). At upper tropospheric temperatures, the thermodynamically stable phase of AN is different from that at 298 K, meaning that presently available room-temperature optical constants of AN, that is, the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index, cannot be applied for the quantitative analysis of these infrared measurements. In this work, we have retrieved the first low-temperature data set of optical constants for crystalline AN in the 800–6000 cm−1 wavenumber range with a spectral resolution of 0.5 cm−1. The optical constants were iteratively derived from an infrared extinction spectrum of 1 micrometer-sized AN particles suspended in a cloud chamber at 223 K. The uncertainties of the new data set were carefully assessed in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis. We show that our data accurately fit aircraft-borne infrared measurements of ammonium nitrate particles in the ATAL.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend and variability over Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1000 (1000) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wakhidatik Nurfaida ◽  
Hendra Ramdhani ◽  
Takenori Shimozono ◽  
Indri Triawati ◽  
Muhammad Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Slope Estimator

Rainfall intensity seems to be increasing nowadays due to climate change as presented in many studies of both global and regional scale. Consequently, cities worldwide are now more vulnerable to flooding. In Indonesia, increasing frequency of floods was reported for the past decades by The National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure (BNPB). To understand the rainfall changes, long-term trend evaluation over a specific area is then crucial due to the large variability of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution. This study investigates the homogeneity and trend of rainfall data from 20 stations over the Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A long-term ground observation rainfall data whose period varies from 1979 to 2019 were analyzed. Non-parametric Mann – Kendall test was applied to assess the trend, while the magnitude was calculated using the Sen’s slope estimator. An increasing annual maximum of daily rainfall intensity was observed at four stations on a 0.95 confidence level based on the Mann – Kendall test, while the Sen’s slope estimator shows a positive trend at almost all stations. The trend of heavy rainfall frequency was also found to be significantly increased, with only one station showed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, this paper also described the spatial and temporal rainfall variability. Positive trend was mostly found during the rainy season, while the negative trend occurred during the dry season. This could pose a challenge for water resource management engineering and design, such as water supply systems or reservoir management. Understanding this phenomena will benefit hydrologists in preparing future water resource engineering and management.

scholarly journals An effective selection process is the key to quality job positions occupation conditional for long-term competitiveness

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (24) ◽  
pp. 5-9
Author(s):  
Katarína Stachová ◽  
Zdenko Stacho ◽  
Zuzana Papulová ◽  
Marek Jemala
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Employee Selection ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
Current State ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Effective Selection

Abstract The need for adaptation to rapid changes in the business environment, both on the part of employees and employers, implies dealing with new challenges, acquisition of new knowledge and skills and assumption of new roles and responsibilities. The base for companies is the availability of qualified human resources, which is ensured by the human resource management department mainly through an effective process of employee selection. The paper is oriented at the analysis of the current state of focus of organizations operating in Slovakia on systematicity and complexity of the selection process, the existence of an effective internal labor market and the regularity of development of used selection tools in the context of technological progress and changes in labor market requirements in regions of Slovakia. Results of the survey on (n = 343) enterprises show a positive trend, an increase of more than 10 percent in the orientation towards improvement of the process of employee selection, but on the other side it also confirm an increase in disparities between individual regions of Slovakia, some regions (Eastern Slovakia) progress much slower than the developed ones (Bratislava).

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