systematic uncertainties
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2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 705
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Di Sciascio

Cosmic rays represent one of the most important energy transformation processes of the universe. They bring information about the surrounding universe, our galaxy, and very probably also the extragalactic space, at least at the highest observed energies. More than one century after their discovery, we have no definitive models yet about the origin, acceleration and propagation processes of the radiation. The main reason is that there are still significant discrepancies among the results obtained by different experiments located at ground level, probably due to unknown systematic uncertainties affecting the measurements. In this document, we will focus on the detection of galactic cosmic rays from ground with air shower arrays up to 1018 eV. The aim of this paper is to discuss the conflicting results in the 1015 eV energy range and the perspectives to clarify the origin of the so-called `knee’ in the all-particle energy spectrum, crucial to give a solid basis for models up to the end of the cosmic ray spectrum. We will provide elements useful to understand the basic techniques used in reconstructing primary particle characteristics (energy, mass, and arrival direction) from the ground, and to show why indirect measurements are difficult and results are still conflicting.



Author(s):  
Dimitri Estevez ◽  
Nicolas Andres ◽  
Maria Assiduo ◽  
Florian Aubin ◽  
Roberto Chierici ◽  
...  

Abstract We describe the method used by the Multi-Band Template Analysis (MBTA) pipeline to compute the probability of astrophysical origin, pastro, of compact binary coalescence candidates in LIGO-Virgo data from the third observing run (O3). The calculation is performed as part of the offline analysis and is used to characterize candidate events, along with their source classification. The technical details and the implementation are described, as well as the results from the first half of the third observing run (O3a) published in GWTC-2.1. The performance of the method is assessed on injections of simulated gravitational-wave signals in O3a data using a parameterization of pastro as a function of the MBTA combined ranking statistic. Possible sources of statistical and systematic uncertainties are discussed, and their effect on pastro quantified.



2022 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 09002
Author(s):  
Glen Cowan

The statistical significance that characterizes a discrepancy between a measurement and theoretical prediction is usually calculated assuming that the statistical and systematic uncertainties are known. Many types of systematic uncertainties are, however, estimated on the basis of approximate procedures and thus the values of the assigned errors are themselves uncertain. Here the impact of the uncertainty on the assigned uncertainty is investigated in the context of the muon g - 2 anomaly. The significance of the observed discrepancy between the Standard Model prediction of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment and measured values are shown to decrease substantially if the relative uncertainty in the uncertainty assigned to the Standard Model prediction exceeds around 30%. The reduction in sensitivity increases for higher significance, so that establishing a 5σ effect will require not only small uncertainties but the uncertainties themselves must be estimated accurately to correspond to one standard deviation.



2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Zhibin Xue ◽  
Liangliang Li ◽  
Yixiao Song

In this study, the C-turning, pitching, and flapping propulsion of a robotic dolphin during locomotion were explored. Considering the swimming action required of a three-dimensional (3D) robotic dolphin in the ocean, we propose a maneuverability model that can be applied to the flapping motion to provide precise and stable movements and function as the driving role in locomotion. Additionally, an added tail joint allows for the turning movement with efficient parameters obtained by a fluid-structure coupling method. To obtain a mathematical model, several disturbance signals were considered, including systematic uncertainties of the parameters, the perpetually changing environment, the interference from obstacles with effective fuzzy rules, and a sliding mode of control. Furthermore, a combined strategy of environment recognition was used for the positional control of the robotic dolphin, incorporating sonar, path planning with an artificial potential field, and trajectory tracking. The simulation results show satisfactory performance of the 3D robotic dolphin with respect to flexible movement and trajectory tracking under the observed interference factors.



Metrologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shisong Li ◽  
Stephan Schlamminger

Abstract The magnet system is an essential component of the Kibble balance, a device that is used to realize the unit of mass. It is the source of the magnetic flux, and its importance is captured in the geometric factor $Bl$. Ironically, the $Bl$ factor cancels out and does not appear in the final Kibble equation. Nevertheless, care must be taken to design and build the magnet system because the cancellation is perfect only if the $Bl$ is the same in both modes: the weighing and velocity mode. This review provides the knowledge necessary to build a magnetic circuit for the Kibble balance. In addition, this article discusses the design considerations, parameter optimizations, practical adjustments to the finished product, and an assessment of systematic uncertainties associated with the magnet system.



2021 ◽  
Vol 258 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
N. A. Schwadron ◽  
E. Möbius ◽  
D. J. McComas ◽  
J. Bower ◽  
E. Bower ◽  
...  

Abstract The Sun's motion through the interstellar medium leads to an interstellar neutral (ISN) wind through the heliosphere. Several ISN species, including He, moderately depleted by ionization are observed with pickup ions and directly imaged. Since 2009, analyzed Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observations returned a precise 4D parameter tube associated with the bulk velocity vector and the temperature of ISN flow distribution. This 4D parameter tube is typically expressed in terms of the ISN speed, the inflow latitudinal direction, and the temperature as a function of the inflow longitudinal direction and the local flow Mach number. We have used IBEX observations and those from other spacecraft to reduce statistical parameter uncertainties: V ISN ∞ = 25.99 ± 0.18 km s−1, λ ISN ∞ = 75 .° 28 ± 0 .° 13 , β ISN ∞ = −5 .° 200 ± 0 .° 075 , and T ISN ∞ = 7496 ± 172 K. IBEX ISN viewing is restricted almost perpendicular to the Earth–Sun line, which limits observations in ecliptic longitude to ∼130° ± 30° and results in relatively small uncertainties across the IBEX parameter tube but large uncertainties along it. Operations over the last three years enabled the IBEX spin axis to drift to the maximum operational offset (7°) west of the Sun, helping to break the ISN parameter degeneracy by weakly crossing the IBEX parameter tubes: the range of possible inflow longitudes extends over the range λ ISN ∞ = 75 .° 28 − 2.21 + 2.27 and the corresponding range of other ISN parameters is V ISN ∞ = 25.99 − 1.76 + 1.86 km s−1, β ISN ∞ = −5 .° 200 − 0.085 + 0.093 , and T ISN ∞ = 7496 − 1528 + 1274 K. This enhances the full χ 2 analysis of ISN parameters through comparison with detailed models. The next-generation IBEX-Lo sensor on IMAP will be mounted on a pivot platform, enabling IMAP-Lo to follow the ISN flow over almost the entire spacecraft orbit around the Sun. A near-continuous set of 4D parameter tube orientations on IMAP will be observed for He and for O, Ne, and H that cross at varying angles to substantially reduce the ISN flow parameter uncertainties and mitigate systematic uncertainties (e.g., from ionization effects and the presence of secondary components) to derive the precise parameters of the primary and secondary local interstellar plasma flows.



Instruments ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Simone Michele Mazza

PIONEER is a next-generation experiment to measure the charged pion branching ratios to electrons vs. muons Re/μ=Γπ+→e+ν(γ)Γπ+→μ+ν(γ) and pion beta decay (Pib) π+→π0eν. The pion to muon decay (π→μ→e) has four orders of magnitude higher probability than the pion to electron decay (π→eν). To achieve the necessary branching-ratio precision it is crucial to suppress the π→μ→e energy spectrum that overlaps with the low energy tail of π→eν. A high granularity active target (ATAR) is being designed to suppress the muon decay background sufficiently so that this tail can be directly measured. In addition, ATAR will provide detailed 4D tracking information to separate the energy deposits of the pion decay products in both position and time. This will suppress other significant systematic uncertainties (pulse pile-up, decay in flight of slow pions) to <0.01%, allowing the overall uncertainty in to be reduced to O (0.01%). The chosen technology for the ATAR is Low Gain Avalanche Detector (LGAD). These are thin silicon detectors (down to 50 μm in thickness or less) with moderate internal signal amplification and great time resolution. To achieve a 100% active region several emerging technologies are being evaluated, such as AC-LGADs and TI-LGADs. A dynamic range from MiP (positron) to several MeV (pion/muon) of deposited charge is expected, the detection and separation of close-by hits in such a wide dynamic range will be a main challenge. Furthermore, the compactness and the requirement of low inactive material of the ATAR present challenges for the readout system, forcing the amplifier chip and digitizer to be positioned away from the active region.



2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (2) ◽  
pp. 259
Author(s):  
M. Millea ◽  
C. M. Daley ◽  
T-L. Chou ◽  
E. Anderes ◽  
P. A. R. Ade ◽  
...  

Abstract We perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg2 of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 μK arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly suboptimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the amplitude of the gravitational lensing potential to be A ϕ = 0.949 ± 0.122 using the Bayesian pipeline, consistent with our QE pipeline result, but with 17% smaller error bars. The Bayesian analysis also provides a simple way to account for systematic uncertainties, performing a similar job as frequentist “bias hardening” or linear bias correction, and reducing the systematic uncertainty on A ϕ due to polarization calibration from almost half of the statistical error to effectively zero. Finally, we jointly constrain A ϕ along with A L, the amplitude of lensing-like effects on the CMB power spectra, demonstrating that the Bayesian method can be used to easily infer parameters both from an optimal lensing reconstruction and from the delensed CMB, while exactly accounting for the correlation between the two. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach on real data, and pave the way for future analysis of deep CMB polarization measurements with SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, where improvements relative to the QE can reach 1.5 times tighter constraints on A ϕ and seven times lower effective lensing reconstruction noise.



2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
R. Aaij ◽  
A. S. W. Abdelmotteleb ◽  
C. Abellán Beteta ◽  
T. Ackernley ◽  
...  

Abstract A search for the doubly charmed baryon $$ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $$ Ξ cc + is performed in the $$ {\varXi}_c^{+}{\pi}^{-}{\pi}^{+} $$ Ξ c + π − π + invariant-mass spectrum, where the $$ {\varXi}_c^{+} $$ Ξ c + baryon is reconstructed in the pK−π+ final state. The study uses proton-proton collision data collected with the LHCb detector at a centre- of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 5.4 fb−1. No significant signal is observed in the invariant-mass range of 3.4–3.8 GeV/c2. Upper limits are set on the ratio of branching fractions multiplied by the production cross-section with respect to the $$ {\varXi}_{cc}^{++} $$ Ξ cc + + → ($$ {\varXi}_c^{+} $$ Ξ c + → pK−π+)π+ decay for different $$ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $$ Ξ cc + mass and lifetime hypotheses in the rapidity range from 2.0 to 4.5 and the transverse momentum range from 2.5 to 25 GeV/c. The results from this search are combined with a previously published search for the $$ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $$ Ξ cc + →$$ {\varLambda}_c^{+} $$ Λ c + K−π+ decay mode, yielding a maximum local significance of 4.0 standard deviations around the mass of 3620 MeV/c2, including systematic uncertainties. Taking into account the look-elsewhere effect in the 3.5–3.7 GeV/c2 mass window, the combined global significance is 2.9 standard deviations including systematic uncertainties.



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