Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701–1850 AD from documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

Abstract. In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1701–1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assesed within the context of the climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values. Results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring, and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790–1820 and 1960–1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lesser (higher) than during the reference period. In spring and autumn it was detected an increase (decrease) in the frequency of wet (dry) seasons. Future research challenges are outlined.

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Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701–1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-8-117-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 117-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

F. S. Rodrigo ◽

J. J. Gómez-Navarro ◽

J. P. Montávez Gómez

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Extreme Values ◽

Mean Value ◽

Winter Temperature ◽

Climate Simulation ◽

Minor Importance ◽

Reference Period ◽

Threshold Values ◽

The Mean ◽

Dalton Minimum

Abstract. In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701–1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885–1915 and 1960–1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10–90 and 25–75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781–1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960–1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701–1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960–1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960–1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790–1820 and 1960–1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960–1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

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Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau climate simulation using the regional climate model RegCM3

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr01167 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 57 (3) ◽

pp. 173-186 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

X Wang ◽

M Yang ◽

G Wan ◽

X Chen ◽

G Pang

Keyword(s):

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Simulation

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Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-94222-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Tokuta Yokohata ◽

Go Iwahana ◽

Toshio Sone ◽

Kazuyuki Saito ◽

Noriko N. Ishizaki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Alpine Ecosystems ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Freezing And Thawing ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Statistical Relationships ◽

The Stability ◽

Slope Displacement

AbstractPermafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km2 by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km2 by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.

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Control Strategies for Multistage Solar Collector Systems

Journal of Solar Energy Engineering ◽

10.1115/1.3268262 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 110 (3) ◽

pp. 230-232

Author(s):

C. Saltiel

Keyword(s):

Comparative Study ◽

Flow Control ◽

Numerical Simulations ◽

Control Strategy ◽

System Performance ◽

Solar Collector ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

High Threshold ◽

Threshold Values

A comparative study of the yearly performance of multistage solar collector systems, (comprised of more than one collector type) with a single on/off flow control strategy for all the collectors and separate on/off controls for each collector stage, is performed. Detailed numerical simulations under a range of climatic conditions showed that there is little advantage in using individual collector controls over a single on/off control strategy when the systems operate at low collector thresholds, but differences in system performance can be quite significant at high threshold values. In addition, the choice of the single control strategy (i.e., which collector the strategy is based on) at low thresholds is not critical in terms of system performance.

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Climate Change and Conflict

Annual Review of Political Science ◽

10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 343-360 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Vally Koubi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Research ◽

General Effect ◽

Substantial Agreement ◽

Political Factors ◽

Academic Literature ◽

The Past ◽

Level Of Economic Development

The link between climate change and conflict has been discussed intensively in academic literature during the past decade. This review aims to provide a clearer picture of what the research community currently has to say with regard to this nexus. It finds that the literature has not detected a robust and general effect linking climate to conflict onset. Substantial agreement exists that climatic changes contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the literature shows that climatic conditions breed conflict in fertile grounds: in regions dependent on agriculture and in combination and interaction with other socioeconomic and political factors such as a low level of economic development and political marginalization. Future research should continue to investigate how climatic changes interact with and/or are conditioned by socioeconomic, political, and demographic settings to cause conflict and uncover the causal mechanisms that link these two phenomena.

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Diversidade e sazonalidade de coccinelídeos (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) em pomar no município de Ponta Grossa, Paraná

EntomoBrasilis ◽

10.12741/ebrasilis.v12i3.832 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 108-112

Author(s):

Bruno Piotrovski Begha ◽

Jana Magaly Tesserolli de Souza ◽

Carlos Henrique Antunes ◽

Julianne Milléo

Keyword(s):

Local Community ◽

Harmonia Axyridis ◽

Fruit Trees ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Research ◽

Agricultural Pests ◽

Consequent Reduction ◽

Prey Aphids ◽

Harmonia Axyridis Pallas ◽

Citrus Trees

Resumo. Uma análise sobre a flutuação populacional da entomofauna associada a culturas de interesse econômico pode fornecer subsídios para o manejo integrado de pragas. Dentre os grupos economicamente relevantes podemos citar os coccinelídeos, conhecidos por serem predadores naturais de pragas agrícolas como afídeos. O presente trabalho se faz necessário visto que os Campos Gerais ainda carecem de dados sobre Coccinellidae relacionados a pomares de árvores frutíferas. O estudo foi realizado no pomar do Colégio Agrícola Estadual Augusto Ribas (Ponta Grossa-PR) de julho de 2004 a junho de 2006. As coletas foram feitas usando cada espécie do pomar, sendo elas agrupadas em dois grupos: cítricas e decíduas. Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) foi a espécie mais representativa na amostragem, compreendendo 38,35 % das coletas. as árvores cítricas apresentaram o maior número de insetos totalizando 82,19% da amostragem. É pertinente sugerir que a presença da H. axyridis pode ter afetado a diversidade da comunidade local, sendo ela uma espécie invasora e considerada uma melhor competidora. As árvores cítricas se apresentaram como as mais diversas. Podemos atribuir essa distribuição a maior presença de afídeos nas árvores cítricas, que foram atraídos pelos óleos voláteis secretados por essas plantas. No período final da amostragem houve uma queda populacional, que pode ser atribuída a condições climáticas desfavoráveis, e consequente redução a abundância dos afídeos presa e dos próprios coccinelídeos. Uma maior quantidade de recursos de presa permitiria que mais espécies de joaninhas coexistissem sem competir fortemente. Uma pesquisa futura poderia comparar situação da comunidade, analisando a influência da H. axyridis nas espécies locais.Diversity and seasonality of coccinellids (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) in an orchard in the city of Ponta Grossa, ParanáAbstract. An analysis of the population fluctuation of entomofauna associated with crops of economic interest can provide subsidies for integrated pest management. Among the economically relevant groups we can mention the Coccinellidae, known to include natural predators of agricultural pests such as aphids. The present work is necessary since Parana's Campos Gerais still lack data on Coccinellidae related to orchards of fruit trees. The study was conducted in the orchard of Augusto Ribas State Agricultural College (Ponta Grossa-PR) from July 2004 to June 2006. Samples were collected from each species of the orchard, grouped into two groups: citrus and deciduous. Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) was the most representative species in the sample, comprising 38.35% of the collections. Citrus trees had the highest number of insects totaling 82.19% of the sample. It is pertinent to suggest that the presence of H. axyridis may have affected the diversity of the local community, being an invasive species and considered a better competitor. The citrus trees presented themselves as the most diverse. We can attribute this contribution to the greater presence of aphids in the citrus trees, which were attracted by the volatile oils secreted by these plants. In the final period of sampling there was a decrease in population size, which can be attributed to unfavorable climatic conditions, and consequent reduction in the abundance of prey aphids and of the coccinellids themselves. A greater amount of prey resources would allow more species of ladybugs to coexist without competing strongly. A future research could compare community situation by analyzing the influence of H. axyridis on local species.

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Adaptive genetic variation at three loci in South African vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) and the role of selection within Primates

10.7287/peerj.preprints.26577v3 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Willem G Coetzer ◽

Trudy R Turner ◽

Christopher A Schmitt ◽

J Paul Grobler

Keyword(s):

Genetic Variation ◽

South African ◽

Vervet Monkey ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Primate Species ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Future Research ◽

Vervet Monkeys ◽

Adaptive Genetic Variation ◽

Chlorocebus Pygerythrus

Vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) are one of the most widely distributed non-human primate species found in South Africa. They occur across all the South African provinces, inhabiting a large variety of habitats. These habitats vary sufficiently that it can be assumed that various factors such as pathogen diversity could influence populations in different ways. In turn, these factors could lead to varied levels of selection at specific fitness linked loci. The Toll-like Receptor (TLR) gene family, which play an integral role in vertebrate innate immunity, is a group of fitness linked loci which has been the focus of much research. In this study, we assessed the level of genetic variation at partial sequences of two TLR loci (TLR4 and 7) and a reproductively linked gene, acrosin (ACR), across the different habitat types within the vervet monkey distribution range. Gene variation and selection estimates were also made among 11 – 21 primate species. Low levels of genetic variation for all three gene regions were observed within vervet monkeys , with only two polymorphic sites identified for TLR4, three sites for TLR7 and one site for ACR . TLR7 variation was positively correlated with high mean annual rainfall, which was linked to increased pathogen abundance. The observed genetic variation at TLR4 might have been influenced by numerous factors including pathogens and climatic conditions. The ACR exonic regions showed no variation in vervet monkeys, which could point to the occurrence of a selective sweep. The TLR4 and TLR7 results for the among primate analyses was mostly in line with previous studies, indicating a higher rate of evolution for TLR4. Within primates, ACR also showed signs of positive selection, which was congruent with previous reports on mammals. Important additional information to the already existing vervet monkey knowledge base was gained from this study, which can guide future research projects on this highly researched taxon as well as help conservation agencies with future management planning involving possible translocations of this species.

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The early Spörer Minimum – a period of extraordinary climate and socio-economic changes in Western and Central Europe

10.5194/cp-2016-7 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chantal Camenisch ◽

Kathrin M. Keller ◽

Melanie Salvisberg ◽

Benjamin Amann ◽

Martin Bauch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Central Europe ◽

Climate Model ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Food Prices ◽

External Forcing ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Model Simulations ◽

15Th Century

Abstract. Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

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Data-Driven Recommendations for Establishing Threshold Values for the NIS Trend Indicator in the Mediterranean Sea

Diversity ◽

10.3390/d14010057 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 57

Author(s):

Marika Galanidi ◽

Argyro Zenetos

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Time Lag ◽

Series Data ◽

Indigenous Species ◽

Reference Period ◽

Threshold Values ◽

Basin Scale ◽

The Mediterranean

In the present work, we analysed time series data on the introduction of new non-indigenous species (NIS) in the Mediterranean between 1970 and 2017, aiming to arrive at recommendations concerning the reference period and provisional threshold values for the NIS trend indicator. We employed regression analysis and breakpoint structural analysis. Our results confirm earlier findings that the reference conditions differ for the four Mediterranean subregions, and support a shortening of the reporting cycle from six to three years, with a two-year time lag for the ensuing assessment. Excluding Lessepsian fishes and parasites, the reference period, defined as the most recent time segment with stable mean new NIS values, was estimated as 1997–2017 for the eastern Mediterranean, 2012–2017 for the central Mediterranean, 2000–2017 for the Adriatic and 1970–2017 for the western Mediterranean. These findings are interpreted primarily on the basis of a basin scale temperature regime shift in the late 1990s, shifts in driving forces such as shellfish culture, and as a result of intensified research efforts and citizen scientist initiatives targeting NIS in the last decade. The threshold values, i.e., the three-year average new NIS values during the reference period, are indicative and will ultimately depend on the choice of species and pathways to be used in the calculations. This is discussed through the prism of target setting in alignment with specific management objectives.

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Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-2133-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 2133-2155

Author(s):

Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽

Marie Pontoppidan ◽

Erle Kristvik ◽

Knut Alfredsen ◽

Tone M. Muthanna

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Reference Period ◽

Future Period ◽

The Mean ◽

Model Chain ◽

Small Catchments ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

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