Projections and simulation of water balance in the Southern Ice Field, Patagonia, Chile

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catalina Jerez Toledo ◽  
Ximena Vargas Mesa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Natural State ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
Ice Field

<p>The Southern Ice Field (CHS) corresponds to one of the largest continental ice plains, representing a water source for the entire globe. It extends from 40°20' S to 51°30' S, covering an area of approximately 16.800 km<sup>2</sup> and consisting of 49 glaciers distributed in the southern territory of Chile and part of the Argentine Patagonia. Due to climatic change, the CHS has been affected, like all the ecosystems that compose the planet, generating disturbances in their natural state, consequently, the systems that constitute the CHS tend to look for a new balance. However, the new state(s) of equilibrium can present a great deal of variability, which is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has drawn up the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), which aim to account for the effects of climate change by representing the total radiative forcing calculated for the year 2100 and including the net effect of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), in addition to other anthropogenic forcing. Based on this, the main objective of the present study is to give an account of a projection and simulation of the water balance in the CHS, informing about the physical processes occurred in the historical period (1970 - 2005), the current period considering a near past and future (2006 - 2050) and a projection to the distant future (2051 - 2100). The simulation of the water balance considers two General Circulation Models (GCMs: MPI-ESM and CSIRO-Mk3-6-0), which are numerical models frequently implemented to simulate the effects of climate change. These models are evaluated under two RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, giving the most unfavorable results under the latter scenario when evaluating the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, since temperature increases of up to 8°C and an oscillating precipitation regime are observed. On the other hand, the MPI-ESM model indicates increases of 1.5°C and 2.5°C accordingly to each scenario and decreases of ± 1/3 of the current observed precipitation. Both models, when evaluated in the previously mentioned scenarios, indicate that the basins that make up the CHS present an emptying to a greater or lesser degree according to the scenario, for which reason, the ice mass that makes up the CHS will follow the behavior it has experienced up to now and will continue to detach itself. To this last, we must add the effect of the decreases in precipitations that reach an average deficit of 30 mm by year 2050 and increases in temperature that exceed the values reported by the IPCC (2019), which they look for to control the effects of the climatic change in the present situation.</p>

Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Andres Romero-Duque ◽  
Maria Cristina Arenas-Bautista ◽  
Leonardo David Donado
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Hydrological cycle dynamics can be simulated through continuous numerical modelling in order to estimate a water budget at different time and spatial scales, taking a specific importance when considering climate change effects on the various processes that take place on a basin. With the purpose of estimating potential impacts of climate change on the basin water balance, the present study takes place on the catchment area of the Carare-Minero river, a basin located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia), a zone in which important economic activities unfold such as stockbreeding and agriculture, where regional climate change scenarios were made for the precipitation and temperature variables, along with a continuous hydrological modeling of the basin using the HEC-HMS software. The regional scenarios for the precipitation and temperature were developed through statistical downscaling based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with projections to 2100 for seven of the new set of CO2 emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that take into account different socioeconomic assumptions for climate policies, with a baseline of 25 years between 1990 and 2014; the emission scenarios evaluated from lowest to highest CO2 emission were SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The obtained data were used as an input for the model of the basin in HEC-HMS obtaining a new water balance for each scenario comparing the results with the baseline case for current conditions, resulting in an evapotranspiration increase due to higher temperatures that, alongside changes in precipitation, produces lower flows for the higher SSP’s of SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, in contrast with the low emission scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 were the changes in temperature and precipitation are less drastic generating minor alterations in the hydrological balance.</p><p>Key words: Hydrological modeling, Middle Magdalena Valley, regional climate change scenarios, water balance.</p>

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

Evaluating the effects of climate change for groundwater quantitative status in Denmark

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annesofie Jakosben ◽  
Hans Jørgen Henriksen ◽  
Ernesto Pasten-Zapata ◽  
Torben Sonnenborg ◽  
Lars Troldborg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Ecological Flow

<p>By use of transient and distributed groundwater-surface water flow models, simulated time series of stream discharge and groundwater level for monitoring networks, groundwater bodies and river reaches have been analysed for a historical period and four different future scenarios toward 2100 in two large-scale catchments in Denmark. The purpose of the climate scenarios has been to qualify the existing knowledge on how future climate change most likely will impact hydrology, groundwater status and Ecological Quality Elements (EQR- Ecological flow in rivers). Another purpose has been to identify whether foreseen climate changes will be detected by the surface water and groundwater monitoring networks, and to which degree the River Basin Management Plan measures for supporting the goal of good quantitative status are robust to the projected changes in water balance and ecological flow. The developed hydrological models were run with climate inputs based on selected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate model runs (RCP8.5 wet, median, dry and RCP4.5 median). Changes in groundwater quantitative status and ecological flow metrics were calculated based on 30-year model runs driven by RCP8.5 for 2071-2100 (RCP4.5 for 2041-70) and compared to 1981-2010.</p><p>Overall the four scenarios results in very significant water balance changes with increased precipitation: 3% to 27%, evapotranspiration: 6% to 17%, groundwater recharge: 0% to 49%, drainage flow: 0% to 71%, baseflow: 0% to 31% and overland flow: 16% to 281%. For one catchment an increase in abstraction of 23% to 171% due to an increase in irrigation demand by 36% to 113% is foreseen. The results have wide implications for groundwater flooding risks, quantitative status and ecological flow metrics. Most sensitive is changes in ecological flow conditions in rivers for fish, showing a relative high probability for decreased state for 10-20% of the reaches for the RCP8.5 wet and dry scenarios due to more extreme hydrological regimes toward 2071-2100. Maximum monthly runoff is increased for winter months by 100% for RCP8.5 wet and median scenarios and around 10% for RCP8.5 dry scenario. Annual maximum daily flows is simulated to increase by up to a factor of five, and late summer low flows decreased.</p><p>Impacts on groundwater levels and water balances of groundwater bodies will be significant, with increased seasonal fluctuations and also increased maximum and decreased minimum groundwater levels for 30 year periods for 2071-2100 compared to 1981-2010.</p><p>More rain, both when we look back on historical data and when we look forward with latest climate projections will result in more frequent flooding from groundwater and streams in the future. At the same time, the temperature and thus evapotranspiration rises. This means that in the long term we will have increased challenges with drought and increased irrigation demands on sandy soils while evapotranspiration will also increase on the clayey soils. This will result in greater fluctuation in the flow and groundwater levels between winters and summers, and between wet and dry years, challenging sustainable groundwater abstraction and maintaining good quantitative status of groundwater bodies.</p>

The Bakerian Lecture, 1991 The predictability of weather and climate

1991 ◽  
Vol 337 (1648) ◽  
pp. 521-572 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Milankovitch Cycles ◽  
The Past ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Sst Anomalies

There is large public and political interest in the predictability of weather and climate, in particular in the influence of human activities on the likely climate change during the next century. Numerical models are the main tools which enable the nonlinear processes involved in the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere and other components of the climate system to be integrated in an effective way. The performance of such models used for weather forecasting has continued to improve as more accurate data with better coverage has become available, as improved descriptions of the physics and dynamics have been incorporated and as computing capacity and speed have increased. Studies of the predictability with models suggest that with further improvements in data and models deterministic forecasting of detailed weather may ultimately have useful skill up to 2-3 weeks ahead. Beyond the limit of deterministic forecasting, some skill remains for the forecasting of general weather patterns which can be pursued by studying ensembles of model forecasts from slightly varying initial conditions. The largest difficulty with further improvements of numerical models lies in their inadequate treatment of the motions too small to be explicitly resolved. Interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean are responsible for substantial variations on seasonal, interannual and longer timescales. Forecasts are being provided of seasonal precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa based on a knowledge of global sea surface tem perature (SST) anomalies together with the assumption that such anomalies tend to persist from one season to the next. Attempts to forecast SST anomalies have centred on tropical regions in particular on the El Nino. Simple models show some skill in forecasting El Nino events 3-9 months in advance. Studies with more elaborate models which as yet only show partial success in simulating these events demonstrate the complex nature of the interactions involved. Turning to the likely changes in climate next century: if no changes occur in the atmosphere other than the increase in C0 2 and other greenhouse gases due to human activities, the increase in radiative forcing due to a doubling of atmospheric C0 2 concentration would lead to an increase of about 1.2 °C in global average temperature. Water vapour and ice-albedo feedbacks raise this to a figure of about 2.5 °C (with an uncertainty range of 1.5—4.5 °C) as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Such a change would dominate over forcing likely to arise from other factors, and this estim ated rate of change next century is probably greater than any which has occurred on earth during the past 10000 years. The main uncertainties in climate change predictions arise from the inadequacies of the models in their descriptions of cloud-radiation and ocean circulation feedbacks. Until there is more confidence in the treatment of these feedbacks there are bound to be large uncertainties associated with any predictions of regional climate change. To reduce the uncertainties there need to be improvements in computer power, in model formulation and in our understanding of climate processes together with a large programme of observations of climate parameters to provide early detection of climate change and to provide validation of climate models and to provide data for initialization of model integrations. An important question is whether changes in climate due to changes in radiative forcing are predictable. It is pointed out that the response to climate over the past half million years to changes in forcing due to the variations in the Earth ’s orbit (Milankovitch cycles) is a regular one; some 60% of variations in the global temperature as established from the palaeontological record occur near frequencies of the Milankovitch cycles. We can, therefore, expect the changes in climate due to increasing greenhouse gases to be a largely predictable response. Large, but probably predictable, changes in the circulation of the deep ocean have modified climate change during past epochs and could have significant influence on future climate change.

A new method for assessing the performance of general circulation models based on their ability to simulate the response to observed forcing

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
M.A. Altamirano del Carmen ◽  
F. Estrada ◽  
C. Gay-García
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adequate Representation ◽  
Warming Rate

AbstractThe reliability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is commonly associated with their ability to reproduce relevant aspects of observed climate and thus, the evaluation of GCMs performance has become a standard practice for climate change studies. As such, there is an ever-growing literature that focuses on developing and evaluating metrics to assess GCMs performance. In this paper it is shown that some commonly applied metrics provide little information for discriminating GCMs based on their performance, once uncertainty is included. A new methodology is proposed that differs from common approaches in that it focuses on evaluating GCMs ability to reproduce the observed response of surface temperature to changes in external radiative forcing (RF), while controlling for observed and simulated variability. It uses formal statistical tests to evaluate two aspects of the warming trend that are central for climate change studies: 1) if the response to RF produced by a particular GCM is compatible with observations and 2) if the magnitudes of the observed and simulated rates of warming are statistically similar. We illustrate the proposed methodology by evaluating the ability of 21 GCMs to reproduce the observed warming trend at the global scale and eight sub-continental land domains. Results show that most of the GCMs provide an adequate representation of the observed warming trend for the global scale and for domains located in the southern hemisphere. However, GCMs tend to overestimate the warming rate for domains in the northern hemisphere, particularly since the mid-1990s.

Robust Late 21st Century Shift in the Regional Monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX Simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moetasim Ashfaq ◽  
Tereza Cavazos ◽  
Michelle Reboita ◽  
José Abraham Torres-Alavez ◽  
Eun-Soon Im ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Monsoon Period

<p>We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability. </p>

Future changes of circulation types associated with extremes over Sweden

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicitas Hansen ◽  
Danijel Belusic ◽  
Klaus Wyser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>The large-scale atmospheric circulation is one of the most important factors influencing weather and climate conditions on different timescales. Its short- and long-term changes considerably determine both mean and extreme values of surface parameters like temperature or precipitation rates. Future changes of circulation patterns are of particular interest as these may significantly alter or amplify the expected thermodynamic changes due to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, albedo and land use. We analyse both historical as well as future climate simulations of the SMHI large ensemble (S-LENS) performed with the EC-Earth3 global climate model to examine large-scale circulation situations and their association to extremes in precipitation and temperature over Sweden. Various methods exist to classify mostly sea level pressure or geopotential height fields into characteristic circulation types, and we compare several of these methods for their applicability to represent precipitation and temperature variability over our region of interest. S-LENS consists of a 50-member ensemble for a historical period (1970-2014) and four 50-member climate change scenario ensembles covering the 21st century differing in terms of assumptions made for future radiative forcing development. We study the efficiency of circulation types in the historical period to give rise to extremes, and examine further the frequency and within-type changes of those circulation types associated with extremes by the middle and the end of the 21st century under the different climate change scenarios. S-LENS with its comparatively large number of both multi-decadal scenarios and realizations for each scenario serves as a perfect testbed to study potential changes in events of low frequency within the environment of a single model.</p>

Sensitivity of Predicted Agro-Ecosystem Variables to Errors in Weather Input Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Zhang ◽  
Keith Paustian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Crop Modeling

Abstract. Statistically interpolated weather station data, outputs from climate reanalyses, and results from downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations are widely used to drive a variety of agro-ecosystem model applications, including regional- and national-scale crop modeling. In this study, we compared these three types of gridded weather datasets (total of nine datasets) with actual point-level weather station observations and analyzed the biases in predicted ecosystem variables of evapotranspiration (ET), crop grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) change, and soil N2O emissions using the process-based DayCent ecosystem model. As a reference system, we defined continuous corn cropping systems for three different regions in the U.S. Our results suggested that the predicted ecosystem variables can be highly sensitive to the sources of weather input data. Interpolated weather data from the PRISM and Daymet data products provided relatively accurate estimations of important ecosystem variables. Compared with the bias-corrected constructed analogs (BCCA) method, GCM results downscaled with the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA) method performed better for agro-ecosystem simulations under climate change; for datasets using BCCA, the rainfall frequency was positively biased and likely caused models to significantly underestimate solar radiation. For regional climate change studies that use a baseline simulation (historical period) for comparison, we suggest including the uncertainty of the baseline due to biases in the weather data in addition to the uncertainty in the projected weather data. Keywords: Agro-ecosystem model, DayCent model, Prediction bias, Weather data.

scholarly journals Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 4581-4601 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ali ◽  
D. McFarlane ◽  
S. Varma ◽  
W. Dawes ◽  
I. Emelyanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Unconfined Aquifer ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Confined Systems ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Aquifer Systems

Abstract. This study assesses climate change impacts on water balance components of the regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia, an area that has experienced a marked decline in rainfall since the mid 1970s and is expected to experience further decline due to global warming. Compared with the historical period of 1975 to 2007, reductions in the mean annual rainfall of between 15 and 18 percent are expected under a dry variant of the 2030 climate which will reduce recharge rates by between 33 and 49 percent relative to that under the historical period climate. Relative to the historical climate, reductions of up to 50 percent in groundwater discharge to the ocean and drainage systems are also expected. Sea-water intrusion is likely in the Peel-Harvey Area under the dry future climate and net leakage to confined systems is projected to decrease by up to 35 percent which will cause reduction in pressures in confined systems under current abstraction. The percentage of net annual recharge consumed by groundwater storage, and ocean and drainage discharges is expected to decrease and percentage of net annual recharge consumed by pumping and net leakage to confined systems to increase under median and dry future climates. Climate change is likely to significantly impact various water balance components of the regional unconfined aquifer systems of south-western Australia. We assess the quantitative climate change impact on the different components (the amounts) using the most widely used GCMs in combination with dynamically linked recharge and physically distributed groundwater models.

scholarly journals Using an AGCM to Diagnose Historical Effective Radiative Forcing and Mechanisms of Recent Decadal Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 1193-1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Andrews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract An atmospheric general circulation model is forced with observed monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary conditions, as well as forcing agents that vary in time, for the period 1979–2008. The simulations are then repeated with various forcing agents, individually and in combination, fixed at preindustrial levels. The simple experimental design allows the diagnosis of the model’s global and regional time-varying effective radiative forcing from 1979 to 2008 relative to preindustrial levels. Furthermore the design can be used to (i) calculate the atmospheric model’s feedback/sensitivity parameters to observed changes in sea surface temperature and (ii) separate those aspects of climate change that are directly driven by the forcing from those driven by large-scale changes in sea surface temperature. It is shown that the atmospheric response to increased radiative forcing over the last 3 decades has halved the global precipitation response to surface warming. Trends in sea surface temperature and sea ice are found to contribute only ~60% of the global land, Northern Hemisphere, and summer land warming trends. Global effective radiative forcing is ~1.5 W m−2 in this model, with anthropogenic and natural contributions of ~1.3 and ~0.2 W m−2, respectively. Forcing increases by ~0.5 W m−2 decade−1 over the period 1979–2008 or ~0.4 W m−2 decade−1 if years strongly influenced by volcanic forcings—which are nonlinear with time—are excluded from the trend analysis. Aerosol forcing shows little global decadal trend due to offsetting regional trends whereby negative aerosol forcing weakens in Europe and North America but continues to strengthen in Southeast Asia.

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