A new method for assessing the performance of general circulation models based on their ability to simulate the response to observed forcing

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
M.A. Altamirano del Carmen ◽  
F. Estrada ◽  
C. Gay-García
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adequate Representation ◽  
Warming Rate

AbstractThe reliability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is commonly associated with their ability to reproduce relevant aspects of observed climate and thus, the evaluation of GCMs performance has become a standard practice for climate change studies. As such, there is an ever-growing literature that focuses on developing and evaluating metrics to assess GCMs performance. In this paper it is shown that some commonly applied metrics provide little information for discriminating GCMs based on their performance, once uncertainty is included. A new methodology is proposed that differs from common approaches in that it focuses on evaluating GCMs ability to reproduce the observed response of surface temperature to changes in external radiative forcing (RF), while controlling for observed and simulated variability. It uses formal statistical tests to evaluate two aspects of the warming trend that are central for climate change studies: 1) if the response to RF produced by a particular GCM is compatible with observations and 2) if the magnitudes of the observed and simulated rates of warming are statistically similar. We illustrate the proposed methodology by evaluating the ability of 21 GCMs to reproduce the observed warming trend at the global scale and eight sub-continental land domains. Results show that most of the GCMs provide an adequate representation of the observed warming trend for the global scale and for domains located in the southern hemisphere. However, GCMs tend to overestimate the warming rate for domains in the northern hemisphere, particularly since the mid-1990s.

scholarly journals Relative Humidity in the Troposphere with AIRS

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 2516-2533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ruzmaikin ◽  
Hartmut H. Aumann ◽  
Evan M. Manning
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Drying Time ◽  
Clear Sky

Abstract New global satellite data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are applied to study the tropospheric relative humidity (RH) distribution and its influence on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for January and July in 2003, 2007, and 2011. RH has the largest maxima over 90% in the equatorial tropopause layer in January. Maxima in July do not arise above 60%. Seasonal variations of about 20% in zonally averaged RH are observed in the equatorial region of the low troposphere, in the equatorial tropopause layer, and in the polar regions. The seasonal variability in the recent decade has increased by about 5% relative to that in 1973–88, indicating a positive trend. The observed RH profiles indicate a moist bias in the tropical and subtropical regions typically produced by the general circulation models. The new data and method of evaluating the statistical significance of bimodality confirm bimodal probability distributions of RH at large tropospheric scales, notably in the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation. Bimodality is also seen at 500–300 hPa in mid- and high latitudes. Since the drying time of the air is short compared with the mixing time of moist and dry air, the bimodality reflects the large-scale distribution of sources of moisture and the atmospheric circulation. Analysis of OLR dependence on surface temperature shows a 0.2 W m−2 K−1 difference in sensitivities between clear-sky and all-sky OLR, indicating a positive longwave cloud radiative forcing. Diagrams of the clear-sky OLR as functions of percentiles of surface temperature and relative humidity in the tropics are designed to provide a new measure of the supergreenhouse effect.

scholarly journals Using an AGCM to Diagnose Historical Effective Radiative Forcing and Mechanisms of Recent Decadal Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 1193-1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Andrews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract An atmospheric general circulation model is forced with observed monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary conditions, as well as forcing agents that vary in time, for the period 1979–2008. The simulations are then repeated with various forcing agents, individually and in combination, fixed at preindustrial levels. The simple experimental design allows the diagnosis of the model’s global and regional time-varying effective radiative forcing from 1979 to 2008 relative to preindustrial levels. Furthermore the design can be used to (i) calculate the atmospheric model’s feedback/sensitivity parameters to observed changes in sea surface temperature and (ii) separate those aspects of climate change that are directly driven by the forcing from those driven by large-scale changes in sea surface temperature. It is shown that the atmospheric response to increased radiative forcing over the last 3 decades has halved the global precipitation response to surface warming. Trends in sea surface temperature and sea ice are found to contribute only ~60% of the global land, Northern Hemisphere, and summer land warming trends. Global effective radiative forcing is ~1.5 W m−2 in this model, with anthropogenic and natural contributions of ~1.3 and ~0.2 W m−2, respectively. Forcing increases by ~0.5 W m−2 decade−1 over the period 1979–2008 or ~0.4 W m−2 decade−1 if years strongly influenced by volcanic forcings—which are nonlinear with time—are excluded from the trend analysis. Aerosol forcing shows little global decadal trend due to offsetting regional trends whereby negative aerosol forcing weakens in Europe and North America but continues to strengthen in Southeast Asia.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic influence in observed regional warming trends and the implied social time of emergence

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Dukpa Kim ◽  
Pierre Perron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Anthropogenic Influence ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
Social Time

AbstractThe attribution of climate change allows for the evaluation of the contribution of human drivers to observed warming. At the global and hemispheric scales, many physical and observation-based methods have shown a dominant anthropogenic signal, in contrast, regional attribution of climate change relies on physically based numerical climate models. Here we show, using state-of-the-art statistical tests, the existence of a common nonlinear trend in observed regional air surface temperatures largely imparted by anthropogenic forcing. All regions, continents and countries considered have experienced warming during the past century due to increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing. The results show that we now experience mean temperatures that would have been considered extreme values during the mid-20th century. The adaptation window has been getting shorter and is projected to markedly decrease in the next few decades. Our findings provide independent empirical evidence about the anthropogenic influence on the observed warming trend in different regions of the world.

Land–Ocean Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Linked to Surface Temperature and Humidity Change

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4527-4545 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Angus J. Ferraro ◽  
Robin Chadwick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
Humidity Change ◽  
Cmip5 Gcms

A compositing scheme that predicts changes in tropical precipitation under climate change from changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) and temperature is presented. As shown by earlier work, regions of high tropical precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) are associated with high near-surface RH and temperature. Under climate change, it is found that high precipitation continues to be associated with the highest surface RH and temperatures in most CMIP5 GCMs, meaning that it is the “rank” of a given GCM grid box with respect to others that determines how much precipitation falls rather than the absolute value of surface temperature or RH change, consistent with the weak temperature gradient approximation. Further, it is demonstrated that the majority of CMIP5 GCMs are close to a threshold near which reductions in land RH produce large reductions in the RH ranking of some land regions, causing reductions in precipitation over land, particularly South America, and compensating increases over ocean. Recent work on predicting future changes in specific humidity allows the prediction of the qualitative sense of precipitation change in some GCMs when land surface humidity changes are unknown. However, the magnitudes of predicted changes are too small. Further study, perhaps into the role of radiative and land–atmosphere feedbacks, is necessary.

scholarly journals Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (36) ◽  
pp. 9647-9652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Niklaus E. Zimmermann ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Elke L. Hodson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Worst Case

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m−2 to 0.19 W·m−2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the “worst-case” RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

scholarly journals Influences of Local and Remote Conditions on Tropical Precipitation and Its Response to Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 4045-4063
Author(s):  
Marion Saint-Lu ◽  
Robin Chadwick ◽  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Ian Boutle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Precipitation Changes

AbstractBy comparing a single-column model (SCM) with closely related general circulation models (GCMs), precipitation changes that can be diagnosed from local changes in surface temperature (TS) and relative humidity (RHS) are separated from more complex responses. In the SCM setup, the large-scale tropical circulation is parameterized to respond to the surface temperature departure from a prescribed environment, following the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation and using the damped gravity wave (DGW) parameterization. The SCM is also forced with moisture variations. First, it is found that most of the present-day mean tropical rainfall and circulation pattern is associated with TS and RHS patterns. Climate change experiments with the SCM are performed, imposing separately surface warming and CO2 increase. The rainfall responses to future changes in sea surface temperature patterns and plant physiology are successfully reproduced, suggesting that these are direct responses to local changes in convective instability. However, the SCM increases oceanic rainfall too much, and fails to reproduce the land rainfall decrease, both of which are associated with uniform ocean warming. It is argued that remote atmospheric teleconnections play a crucial role in both weakening the atmospheric overturning circulation and constraining precipitation changes. Results suggest that the overturning circulation weakens, both as a direct local response to increased CO2 and in response to energy-imbalance driven exchanges between ascent and descent regions.

scholarly journals The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1375-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Marina Suzuki
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cross Model ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Arctic Climate Change

Abstract. There remain substantial uncertainties in future projections of Arctic climate change. There is a potential to constrain these uncertainties using a combination of paleoclimate simulations and proxy data, but such a constraint must be accompanied by physical understanding on the connection between past and future simulations. Here, we examine the relevance of an Arctic warming mechanism in the mid-Holocene (MH) to the future with emphasis on process understanding. We conducted a surface energy balance analysis on 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models under the MH and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario forcings. It is found that many of the dominant processes that amplify Arctic warming over the ocean from late autumn to early winter are common between the two periods, despite the difference in the source of the forcing (insolation vs. greenhouse gases). The positive albedo feedback in summer results in an increase in oceanic heat release in the colder season when the atmospheric stratification is strong, and an increased greenhouse effect from clouds helps amplify the warming during the season with small insolation. The seasonal progress was elucidated by the decomposition of the factors associated with sea surface temperature, ice concentration, and ice surface temperature changes. We also quantified the contribution of individual components to the inter-model variance in the surface temperature changes. The downward clear-sky longwave radiation is one of major contributors to the model spread throughout the year. Other controlling terms for the model spread vary with the season, but they are similar between the MH and the future in each season. This result suggests that the MH Arctic change may not be analogous to the future in some seasons when the temperature response differs, but it is still useful to constrain the model spread in the future Arctic projection. The cross-model correlation suggests that the feedbacks in preceding seasons should not be overlooked when determining constraints, particularly summer sea ice cover for the constraint of autumn–winter surface temperature response.

scholarly journals Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

2000 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 583-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Soon ◽  
E. Posmentier ◽  
S. Baliunas
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Solar Physics ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Solar Uv

Abstract. We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous) · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions)

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

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