Heavy rainfall and flood risk assessment method considering the future climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomohito Yamada ◽  
Tsuyoshi Hoshino
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
The Future

<p>Existing flood control plans have been implemented based on rainfall estimated from observation data. However, we have data from the past several decades. Thus, it is not enough to project future extreme events from existing observation data. Therefore, Japan has been created huge ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulation based on the laws of physics. The data consist of past and future climate situations (past climate: total 3,000 years, 4 K warmer climate: total 5,400 years). It has enabled to quantitatively evaluate the probability of heavy rainfall and flooding on the future 4K-warmed earth.</p><p>Moreover, we apply the statistical theory of extreme value to evaluate the probability of heavy rainfall and flooding in the future. The results from statistical method is equivalent to the results from the huge ensemble data from climate model. It supports Japanese governments in formulating and carrying out their adaptation plans.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-120
Author(s):  
Suraj Lamichhane ◽  
Keshav Basnet ◽  
Nirmal Prasad Baral ◽  
Tek Bahadur Katuwal ◽  
Upendra Subedi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Kathmandu Valley ◽  
The Future

Anthropogenic activities are the major drivers of climate change and the climatic variability is the major threat for the world development especially in Nepal. The Kathmandu Valley (KV) is the most urbanized capital city of Nepal that has sensed the climatic variation in terms of increase in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and flood for few decades. For the adaptation of climatic variability, historical and future climate change is depicted by the trend, seasonal, and yearly variation analysis using climate models based on observed data. Historically, minimum temperatures of the all seasons are in increasing and the seasonal average rate of precipitation in the KV watershed is declining. After analysis of the projected future climate using climate model (ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5 and CCSM4) with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), minimum and maximum temperature in the future (up to 2050) is increased by 0.66°C – 0.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 1.21°C –1.04°C in RCP8.5 scenario. The rise in temperature means the warmer day will be increased and the erratic behavior of the precipitation will be expected in the future and the basin is expected to be drier in dry season and wetter in wet season. The analysis provides the alternative information for the planner for better planning, management, and adaptation strategy.

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

Change in thunderstorm activity in a projected warmer future climate over Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahana Akter Esha ◽  
Nasreen Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Thunderstorm Activity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Increasing Risk

<p>Thunderstorms can have a wide range of impacts on modern societies and their assets. Severe thunderstorms associated with thunder squall, hail, tornado, and lightning cause extensive damage and losses to lives, especially in the densely populated sub-tropical countries like Bangladesh. In this study the future changes in thunderstorm conducive environments, in terms convective available potential energy (CAPE), have been assessed under the RCP 8.5 scenario for the selected major cities of Bangladesh. Results show an increase in CAPE for all the selected cities and in the range of 44%–106%. Later, a statistical thunderstorm frequency prediction model has been developed based on CAPE and convective precipitation and the probable scenario of thunderstorm frequency in the 21st century under future climate has been projected. The simulations were carried out for three different time slices (Early, Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century) with CMCC-CM (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model) model data. The future projection of thunderstorm shows an increase in thunderstorm frequency for all the season in a warmer future climate. But pre-monsoon and monsoon are found to be the most thunderstorm frequent season. Given the substantial damage from severe thunderstorms in the current climate, such increases imply an increasing risk of thunderstorm-related damage in this disaster-prone region of the world.</p>

Investigation of direct solar proton impact on Arctic stratospheric ozone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Jia ◽  
Antti Kero ◽  
Niilo Kalakoski ◽  
Monika E. Szeląg ◽  
Pekka T. Verronen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Individual Case ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Ozone Level ◽  
Superposed Epoch Analysis ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
The Individual

<p>Recent studies reported up to a 10 % average decrease of lower stratospheric ozone at ∼ 20 km altitude following solar proton events (SPEs), based on superposed epoch analysis (SEA) of ozonesonde anomalies. Our study uses 49 SPEs that occurred after the launch of Aura MLS (2004–now) and 177 SPEs that occurred in the WACCM-D (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with D-region ion chemistry) simulation period (1989–2012) to evaluate Arctic polar atmospheric ozone changes following SPEs. At the mesospheric altitudes a statistically significant ozone depletion is present. At the lower stratosphere (<25 km), SEA of the satellite dataset provides no solid evidence of any average direct SPE impact on ozone. In the individual case studies, we find only one potential case (January 2005) in which the lower-stratospheric ozone level was significantly decreased after the SPE onset (in both model simulation and MLS observation data). However, similar decreases could not be identified in other SPEs of similar or larger magnitude. We find a very good overall consistency between WACCM-D simulations and MLS observations of SPE-driven ozone anomalies both on average and for the individual cases, including case in January 2005.</p>

scholarly journals Changes to the tropical circulation in the mid-Pliocene and their implications for future climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn Corvec ◽  
Christopher G. Fletcher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Projections

Abstract. The two components of the tropical overturning circulation, the meridional Hadley circulation (HC) and the zonal Walker circulation (WC), are key to the re-distribution of moisture, heat and mass in the atmosphere. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3 Ma) is considered a very rough analogue of near-term future climate change, yet changes to the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP are poorly understood. Here, climate model simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) are analyzed to show that the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP were weaker than preindustrial circulations, just as they are projected to be in future climate change. The weakening HC response is consistent with future projections, and its strength is strongly related to the meridional gradient of sea surface warming between the tropical and subtropical oceans. The weakening of the WC is less robust in PlioMIP than in future projections, largely due to inter-model variations in simulated warming of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). When the TIO warms faster (slower) than the tropical mean, local upper tropospheric divergence increases (decreases) and the WC weakens less (more). These results provide strong evidence that changes to the tropical overturning circulation in the mPWP and future climate are primarily controlled by zonal (WC) and meridional (HC) gradients in tropical–subtropical sea surface temperatures.

scholarly journals Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (19) ◽  
pp. 5921-5926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong-Yeon Park ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Jürgen Bader ◽  
Rebecca Rolph ◽  
Minho Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Marine Phytoplankton ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Model ◽  
The Future

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

scholarly journals Caring for the future: Climate change and intergenerational responsibility in China and the UK

Geoforum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Diprose ◽  
Chen Liu ◽  
Gill Valentine ◽  
Robert M. Vanderbeck ◽  
Katie McQuaid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfried Hagg ◽  
Elisabeth Mayr ◽  
Birgit Mannig ◽  
Mark Reyers ◽  
David Schubert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Tian Shan

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.

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