The impact of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on UTLS composition, local radiative effects and air quality

Author(s):  
Ryan Williams ◽  
Michaela Hegglin ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Hella Garny ◽  
Keith Shine ◽  
...  

<p>Midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), characterised by the reversal of the temperature gradient poleward of 60°N and the 10 hPa climatological zonal mean wind from westerly to easterly at 60°N, are known to have pronounced impacts on tropospheric circulation which lead to regional changes in temperature, precipitation and other meteorological variables. Such abrupt events are furthermore known to be associated with large-scale changes in the distribution of stratospheric chemistry constituents, such as ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and water vapour (H<sub>2</sub>O), although the implications for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) have not been previously investigated. The evolution of O<sub>3</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O anomalies during an SSW life cycle are first examined from the surface up to 1 hPa using specified-dynamics simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model over the period 1979-2013. We show that significant positive anomalies in O<sub>3</sub> occur around the onset of an SSW in the middle to lower stratosphere, with persistence timescales of around 50 days in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS). Similarly, we find significant H<sub>2</sub>O anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere (± 25 %) for up to 75 days. The extent and magnitude of the anomalies are largely confirmed in both Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis and ozonesonde measurements at five different Arctic stations. These chemical perturbations result in local temperature changes of up to 2 K, which may impact numerical weather prediction (NWP) of the tropospheric response to SSWs. Evaluation of the vertical residual velocity (w*) support the notion of transport changes being the driver of the temporal evolution of the anomalies. Using a stratospheric-tagged O<sub>3</sub> tracer, a signal for enhanced STE of ozone is subsequently inferred (~ 5-10 %), which is maximised around 50 days after the SSW onset date. We furthermore attempt to elucidate STE transport pathways using a tropopause fold identification algorithm applied to ERA-Interim during this period, and assess such changes in folding frequency and distribution during such events. Our results highlight that SSWs can induce significantly disturbed O<sub>3</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O distributions in the UTLS, leading to enhanced STE of O<sub>3</sub>, with potentially significant implications for radiative fluxes, atmospheric heating rates and air quality.</p>

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Si Li ◽  
Tao Huang ◽  
Jingyue Mo ◽  
Jixiang Li ◽  
Xiaodong Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Wind farms have been found to alter local and regional meteorology and climate. Here, we show that multiple large-scale wind farms might disturb air quality forecasts and affect PM2.5 air pollution. We explore the impact of large-scale wind farms on PM2.5 concentrations and forecasts in the Northern China Plain in winter and summer using a coupled weather forecast – atmospheric chemistry model (WRF-Chem). Modelling results reveal that the large-scale wind farms decrease PM2.5 levels within the wind farms and increase PM2.5 concentrations by 49 % and 16 % of the modelled monthly mean PM2.5 concentrations in proximate areas and regions hundreds of kilometres downstream. The wind farm-forced changes in PM2.5 are more evident in the simulated hourly PM2.5 concentrations. The model sensitivity studies reveal that hourly concentration fractions in winter induced by wind farms vary from −40 % to 250 % in nearby and distant downstream regions and metropolises, comparing with the cases without the wind farms. The impact of wind farms on modeled PM2.5 during the nighttime is stronger than that in the daytime. Our results suggested that the wind farm perturbed changes in PM2.5 should not be overlooked because such changes might affect air quality forecast on an hourly basis, particularly in heavily contaminated Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region by PM2.5.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 2153-2165 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Ivey ◽  
H. A. Holmes ◽  
Y. T. Hu ◽  
J. A. Mulholland ◽  
A. G. Russell

Abstract. An integral part of air quality management is knowledge of the impact of pollutant sources on ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM). There is also a growing desire to directly use source impact estimates in health studies; however, source impacts cannot be directly measured. Several limitations are inherent in most source apportionment methods motivating the development of a novel hybrid approach that is used to estimate source impacts by combining the capabilities of receptor models (RMs) and chemical transport models (CTMs). The hybrid CTM–RM method calculates adjustment factors to refine the CTM-estimated impact of sources at monitoring sites using pollutant species observations and the results of CTM sensitivity analyses, though it does not directly generate spatial source impact fields. The CTM used here is the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the RM approach is based on the chemical mass balance (CMB) model. This work presents a method that utilizes kriging to spatially interpolate source-specific impact adjustment factors to generate revised CTM source impact fields from the CTM–RM method results, and is applied for January 2004 over the continental United States. The kriging step is evaluated using data withholding and by comparing results to data from alternative networks. Data withholding also provides an estimate of method uncertainty. Directly applied (hybrid, HYB) and spatially interpolated (spatial hybrid, SH) hybrid adjustment factors at withheld observation sites had a correlation coefficient of 0.89, a linear regression slope of 0.83 ± 0.02, and an intercept of 0.14 ± 0.02. Refined source contributions reflect current knowledge of PM emissions (e.g., significant differences in biomass burning impact fields). Concentrations of 19 species and total PM2.5 mass were reconstructed for withheld observation sites using HYB and SH adjustment factors. The mean concentrations of total PM2.5 at withheld observation sites were 11.7 (± 8.3), 16.3 (± 11), 8.59 (± 4.7), and 9.2 (± 5.7) μg m−3 for the observations, CTM, HYB, and SH predictions, respectively. Correlations improved for concentrations of major ions, including nitrate (CMAQ–DDM (decoupled direct method): 0.404, SH: 0.449), ammonium (CMAQ–DDM: 0.454, SH: 0.492), and sulfate (CMAQ–DDM: 0.706, SH: 0.730). Errors in simulated concentrations of metals were reduced considerably: 295 % (CMAQ–DDM) to 139 % (SH) for vanadium; and 1340 % (CMAQ–DDM) to 326 % (SH) for manganese. Errors in simulated concentrations of some metals are expected to remain given the uncertainties in source profiles. Species concentrations were reconstructed using SH results, and the error relative to observed concentrations was greatly reduced as compared to CTM-simulated concentrations. Results demonstrate that the hybrid method along with a spatial extension can be used for large-scale, spatially resolved source apportionment studies where observational data are spatially and temporally limited.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 18511-18543 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Aschmann ◽  
B. M. Sinnhuber ◽  
E. L. Atlas ◽  
S. M. Schauffler

Abstract. The transport of very short-lived substances into the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is investigated by a three-dimensional chemical transport model using archived convective updraft mass fluxes (or detrainment rates) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's ERA-Interim reanalysis. Large-scale vertical velocities are calculated from diabatic heating rates. With this approach we explicitly model the large scale subsidence in the tropical troposphere with convection taking place in fast and isolated updraft events. The model calculations agree generally well with observations of bromoform and methyl iodide from aircraft campaigns and with ozone and water vapor from sonde and satellite observations. Using a simplified treatment of dehydration and bromine product gas washout we give a range of 1.6 to 3 ppt for the contribution of bromoform to stratospheric bromine, assuming a uniform source in the boundary layer of 1 ppt. We show that the most effective region for VSLS transport into the stratosphere is the West Pacific, accounting for about 55% of the bromine from bromoform transported into the stratosphere under the supposition of a uniformly distributed source.


Időjárás ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-646
Author(s):  
Zita Ferenczi ◽  
Emese Homolya ◽  
Krisztina Lázár ◽  
Anita Tóth

An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the area of Hungary and three big cites of the country (Budapest, Miskolc, and Pécs). The core of the model system is the CHIMERE off-line chemical transport model. The AROME numerical weather prediction model provides the gridded meteorological inputs for the chemical model calculations. The horizontal resolution of the AROME meteorological fields is consistent with the CHIMERE horizontal resolution. The individual forecasted concentrations for the following 2 days are displayed on a public website of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. It is essential to have a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty in model output arising from uncertainties in the input meteorological fields. The main aim of this research is to probe the response of an air quality model to its uncertain meteorological inputs. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. During the past decades, meteorological ensemble modeling has received extensive research and operational interest because of its ability to better characterize forecast uncertainty. One such ensemble forecast system is the one of the AROME model, which has an 11-member ensemble where each member is perturbed by initial and lateral boundary conditions. In this work we focus on wintertime particulate matter concentrations, since this pollutant is extremely sensitive to near-surface mixing processes. Selecting a number of extreme air pollution situations we will show what the impact of the meteorological uncertainty is on the simulated concentration fields using AROME ensemble members.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 31891-31932 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Paoli ◽  
O. Thouron ◽  
J. Escobar ◽  
J. Picot ◽  
D. Cariolle

Abstract. Large-eddy simulations of sub-kilometer-scale turbulence in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) are carried out and analyzed using the mesoscale atmospheric model Méso-NH. Different levels of turbulence are generated using a large-scale stochastic forcing technique that was especially devised to treat atmospheric stratified flows. The study focuses on the analysis of turbulence statistics, including mean quantities and energy spectra, as well as on a detailed description of flow topology. The impact of resolution is also discussed by decreasing the grid spacing to 2 m and increasing the number of grid points to 8×109. Because of atmospheric stratification, turbulence is substantially anisotropic, and large elongated structures form in the horizontal directions, in accordance with theoretical analysis and spectral direct numerical simulations of stably stratified flows. It is also found that the inertial range of horizontal kinetic energy spectrum, generally observed at scales larger than a few kilometers, is prolonged into the sub-kilometric range, down to the Ozmidov scales that obey isotropic Kolmorogov turbulence. The results are in line with observational analysis based on in situ measurements from existing campaigns.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5087-5139 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Pommrich ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
J.-U. Grooß ◽  
P. Konopka ◽  
F. Ploeger ◽  
...  

Abstract. Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO) and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11), CCl2F2 (CFC-12), and CO2) in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the free troposphere is deduced from MOPITT measurements (at ≈ 700–200 hPa). Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in-situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈ 10–20 ppbv). Further, the model results are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns) simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations. The simulations show a too rapid upwelling compared to observations as a consequence of the overestimated vertical velocities in the ERA-interim reanalysis data set. Moreover, the simulated tropical anomaly patterns of N2O are in good agreement with observations. In the simulations, anomaly patterns for CH4 and CFC-11 were found to be consistent with those of N2O; for all long-lived tracers, positive anomalies are simulated because of the enhanced tropical upwelling in the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leïla Simon ◽  
Valérie Gros ◽  
Jean-Eudes Petit ◽  
François Truong ◽  
Roland Sarda-Esteve ◽  
...  

<p>Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) have direct influences on air quality and climate. They also play a key role in atmospheric chemistry, as they are precursors of secondary pollutants, such as ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and secondary organic aerosols (SOA).</p><p>Long-term datasets of in-situ atmospheric measurements are crucial to characterize the variability of atmospheric chemical composition. Online and continuous measurements of O<sub>3</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub> and aerosols have been achieved at the SIRTA-ACTRIS facility (Paris region, France), since 2012. Regarding VOCs, they have been measured there for several years thanks to bi-weekly samplings followed by offline Gas Chromatography analysis. However, this method doesn’t provide a good representation of the temporal variability of VOC concentrations. To tackle this issue, online VOC measurements using a Proton-Transfer-Reaction Quadrupole Mass-Spectrometer (PTR-Q-MS) have been started in January 2020.</p><p>The dataset acquired during the first year of online VOC measurements is analyzed, which gives insights on VOC seasonal variability. The additional long-term datasets obtained from co-located measurements (O<sub>3</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, aerosol physical and chemical properties, meteorological parameters) are also used for the sake of this study.</p><p>Due to Covid-19 pandemic, the year 2020 notably comprised a total lockdown in France in Spring, and a lighter one in Autumn. Therefore, a focus can be made on the impact of these lockdowns on the VOC variability and sources. To this end, the diurnal cycles of VOCs considered markers for anthropogenic sources are carefully investigated. Results notably indicate that markers for traffic and wood burning sources behave quite differently during the Spring lockdown in comparison to the other periods. A source apportionment analysis using positive matrix factorization allows to further document the seasonal variability of VOC sources and the impacts on air quality associated with the lockdown measures.</p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 14387-14401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Prodromos Zanis

Abstract. Using a transient simulation for the period 1960–2100 with the state-of-the-art ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) global model and a tropopause fold identification algorithm, we explore the future projected changes in tropopause folds, stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone, and tropospheric ozone under the RCP6.0 scenario. Statistically significant changes in tropopause fold frequencies from 1970–1999 to 2070–2099 are identified in both hemispheres, regionally exceeding 3 %, and are associated with the projected changes in the position and intensity of the subtropical jet streams. A strengthening of ozone STT is projected for the future in both hemispheres, with an induced increase in transported stratospheric ozone tracer throughout the whole troposphere, reaching up to 10 nmol mol−1 in the upper troposphere, 8 nmol mol−1 in the middle troposphere, and 3 nmol mol−1 near the surface. Notably, the regions exhibiting the largest changes of ozone STT at 400 hPa coincide with those with the highest fold frequency changes, highlighting the role of the tropopause folding mechanism in STT processes under a changing climate. For both the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) and Afghanistan (AFG) regions, which are known as hotspots of fold activity and ozone STT during the summer period, the year-to-year variability of middle-tropospheric ozone with stratospheric origin is largely explained by the short-term variations in ozone at 150 hPa and tropopause fold frequency. Finally, ozone in the lower troposphere is projected to decrease under the RCP6.0 scenario during MAM (March, April, and May) and JJA (June, July, and August) in the Northern Hemisphere and during DJF (December, January, and February) in the Southern Hemisphere, due to the decline of ozone precursor emissions and the enhanced ozone loss from higher water vapour abundances, while in the rest of the troposphere ozone shows a remarkable increase owing mainly to the STT strengthening and the stratospheric ozone recovery.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henri Diémoz ◽  
Gian Paolo Gobbi ◽  
Tiziana Magri ◽  
Giordano Pession ◽  
Sara Pittavino ◽  
...  

Abstract. This work evaluates the impact of trans-regional aerosol transport from the polluted Po basin on particulate matter levels (PM10) and physico-chemical characteristics in the northwestern Alps. To this purpose, we exploited a multi-sensor, multiplatform database over a 3-years period (2015–2017) accompanied by a series of numerical simulations. The experimental setup included operational (24/7) vertically-resolved aerosol profiles by an Automated LiDAR-Ceilometer (ALC), verticallyintegrated aerosol properties by a sun/sky photometer, and surface measurements of aerosol mass concentration, size distribution and chemical composition. This experimental set of observations was then complemented by modelling tools, including Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Trajectory Statistical (TSM) and Chemical Transport (CTM) models, plus Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) on both the PM10 chemical speciation analyses and size distributions. In a first companion study (Diémoz et al., 2019), we showed and discussed through detailed case studies the 4-D phenomenology of recurrent episodes of aerosol transport from the polluted Po basin to the northwestern Italian Alps, and particularly to the Aosta Valley. Here we draw more general and statistically significant conclusions on the frequency of occurrence of this phenomenon, and on the quantitative impact of this regular, wind-driven, aerosol-rich atmospheric tide on PM10 air quality levels in this alpine environment. Combining vertically-resolved ALC measurements with wind information, we found that an advected aerosol layer is observed at the receptor site (Aosta) in 93 % of days characterized by easterly winds (thermally-driven winds from the plain or synoptic circulation regimes), and that the longer the time spent by air masses over the Po plain the higher this probability. On a seasonal basis, frequency of advected aerosol layers from the Po basin maximises in summer (70 % of the days classified using the ALC profiles) and minimises in winter and spring (57 % of the classified days). Duration of these advection events ranges from few hours up to several days, while aerosol layer thickness ranges from 500 up to 4000 m. This phenomenon was found to largely impact both surface levels and column-integrated aerosol properties, with PM10 and AOD values respectively increasing up to a factor of 3.5 and 4 in dates under the Po Valley influence. Similar variations in PM10 values observed at different stations within the Aosta Valley also indicated the phenomenon to act at the regional scale and to be related to non-local emissions. Pollution transport events were also shown to modify the mean chemical composition and typical size of particles in the target region. In fact, increase in secondary species, and mainly nitrate- and sulfate-rich components, were found to be effective proxies of the advections, with the transported aerosol responsible for at least 25 % of the PM10 measured in the urban site of Aosta, and adding up to over 50 μg m−3 during specific episodes, thus exceeding alone the EU established daily limit. This percentage is expected to be higher in the rural, pristine areas on the northwestern Alps, where chemical data were not available and trans-boundary contribution to PM10 might thus exceed the local one. Advected aerosols were also found to be on average finer, more light-scattering and more hygroscopic than the locally-produced ones. From a modelling point of view, our CTM simulations performed over a full year showed that the model is able to reproduce the phenomenon but underestimates its impact on PM10 levels. As a sensitivity test, we employed the ALC-derived identification of aerosol advections to re-weight the emissions from outside the boundaries of the regional domain in order to match the observed PM10 field. This simplified exercise indicated that an increase of such external emissions by a factor of 4 in the model would reduce the PM10 mean bias forecasts error (MBE) from −10 μg m−3 to less than 2 μg m−3, the normalised mean standard deviation (NMSD) from over −50 % to less than −10 % and would halve the model PM10 maximum deviations.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 205
Author(s):  
Laura Rontu ◽  
Emily Gleeson ◽  
Daniel Martin Perez ◽  
Kristian Pagh Nielsen ◽  
Velle Toll

The direct radiative effect of aerosols is taken into account in many limited-area numerical weather prediction models using wavelength-dependent aerosol optical depths of a range of aerosol species. We studied the impact of aerosol distribution and optical properties on radiative transfer, based on climatological and more realistic near real-time aerosol data. Sensitivity tests were carried out using the single-column version of the ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system, set up to use the HLRADIA simple broadband radiation scheme. The tests were restricted to clear-sky cases to avoid the complication of cloud–radiation–aerosol interactions. The largest differences in radiative fluxes and heating rates were found to be due to different aerosol loads. When the loads are large, the radiative fluxes and heating rates are sensitive to the aerosol inherent optical properties and the vertical distribution of the aerosol species. In such cases, regional weather models should use external real-time aerosol data for radiation parametrizations. Impacts of aerosols on shortwave radiation dominate longwave impacts. Sensitivity experiments indicated the important effects of highly absorbing black carbon aerosols and strongly scattering desert dust.


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