Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands to climate change and grazing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banzragch Nandintsetseg ◽  
Bazartsersen Boldgiv ◽  
Jinfeng Chang ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Masato Shinoda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
National Level ◽  
Grazing Intensity ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Climatic Hazards ◽  
The Future

<p>Robust changes in climatic hazards, including droughts, heatwaves and dust storms, are evident in many parts of the world and they are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in the future. At the same time, socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolian grasslands (MGs), which occur in arid and harsh cold climate and still support traditional nomadic livelihood and culture through the food supply, and agricultural and ecosystem services. In the 2000s, increasing climate disasters (droughts combined with anomalously harsh winters (dzuds in Mongolian), and dust storms) resulted in massive livestock deaths, causing socioeconomic stagnation. In this context, assessments of risk and vulnerability of MGs to climate change and grazing may support disaster risk management by helping to identify hazard risk hotspots, allowing herders in risky areas to be prepared for events, and to mitigate the future potential impacts. Here, we examine the risk and vulnerability of the MG ecosystem to droughts at the national-level during a 40-year (1976–2015) using simulations of a gridded process-based ecosystem model by contrasting the recent (1996–2015) and past (1976–1995) 20-years. In general, the model realistically simulates temporal and spatial variations of vegetation biomass and soil moisture that were captured by field and satellite observations during 2000–2015 over MGs. We apply a probabilistic risk analysis in which risk is the product of the probability of hazardous drought during June-August and ecosystem vulnerability. Results reveal that during 1976–2015, increases in droughts with rapid warming and slight drying occurred over MGs, particularly in the recent 20-year, accompanied by ever-increasing grazing intensity, which together resulted in declining trends in grassland productivity. During the recent 20-year, the risk of drought to productivity slightly increased over extended areas in MGs compared to the past 20-year. The increase in the risk to MGs predominantly caused by the climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought, and less by the vulnerability. Regionally, recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. Given the benefits of MGs for both ecosystem services and socio-economic consequences, recent increases in drought hazards and associated risk to MGs signal an urgent need to implement drought management policies that sustain MGs.</p>

scholarly journals Demand for provisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maitane Erdozain ◽  
Erika C. Freeman ◽  
Camille Ouellet Dallaire ◽  
Sonja Teichert ◽  
Harry W. Nelson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Provisioning Ecosystem Services ◽  
The Future

The Canadian boreal zone provides extractive goods and services (provisioning ecosystem services (PrES)) to domestic and global markets and makes a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. The intensity and location of these extractive activities, however, may positively or negatively affect the availability of other benefits that the Canadian and global society receive from the boreal. Where PrES compete, managing these activities along with their impacts to boreal ecosystems becomes a balancing act between the need for resource extraction and the continued availability of the other benefits from ecosystems. Management measures and policies are more likely to succeed if they are designed with foresight, which means accounting for how demand, a key driver of change in the boreal, may change in the future. To help this process, we present three divergent, yet plausible future scenarios based on the analysis of: (i) the capacity of the boreal to provide wood products, fossil fuels, metals and minerals, and hydropower and other renewables; (ii) past trends (1985–2015) and key events in the demand for these PrES; (iii) the interaction of demand for PrES with other drivers of change to the boreal zone; and (iv) the synergies and trade-offs between PrES. We find that historically and currently the capacity of the boreal to provide these PrES exceeds the amount currently supplied. However, the capacity of different PrES and location of extractive activities are spatially dispersed creating a spatial and temporal patchwork of associated risks to local ecosystem integrity and the supply of non-PrES. In addition, these scenarios suggest that the future of boreal PrES is very uncertain and highly dependent on how other drivers of change (namely governance and geopolitics, societal values and climate change) play out in the future. Given the spatial complexity, we find that the cumulative effect of these drivers (e.g., climate change) will determine what paths unfold for different areas of the boreal, and we conclude that careful consideration and planning must be given to ensure that the balance between PrES and non-PrES is maintained.

The Mediterranean viticulture in response to global climate change drivers, the lesson of the past

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Guiot ◽  
Nicolas Bernigaud ◽  
Alberte Bondeau ◽  
Laurent Bouby
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean

<p>Using a statistical emulator of a coupled climate-ecosystem model, this paper proposes a method to link the vine potential productivity and the viticulture extension in the Mediterranean area to global climate drivers, such as orbital parameters, solar and volcan activities and greenhouse gas concentrations. The emulator was calibrated on several tens of simulations of earth system models in various situations from the PMIP3 past (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, last millennium) and the CMIP5 future simulation up to 2100 under several RCP scenarios. The key climate variables produced by these simulations were introduced in an ecosystem model (BIOME4), so the ecosystem variables can be directly estimated from the global drivers. The large variation of situations used for calibration produces a robust emulator able to extrapolate to a large range of past and future climate states. Applied to the Mediterranean and European area, the emulator has been validated on several key periods of the past where the climate is known to have much changed. Finally, it was used to simulate the viticulture extension not only for these key past periods but also for different scenarios of the future, related to a global warming of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 5°C. Even if human groups are mainly responsible of viticulture extension, climate is a driver in the way that bad climate conditions may be a limit to extension or even a driver of regression.</p><p>The main findings are: (i) If the climate change projected for the future can be attributed to greenhouse gases increase as expected, the variations of the last millennia in the Mediterranean Basin can be attributed to the volcanic activity, the solar activity effect being negligeable; (ii) the effects of these volcanic forcing on the climate are not necessarily uniform across the basin and had a large impact on the viticulture as they were sufficiently important to be responsible of extension of viticulture on the whole Gaul during the Roman Climate Optimum; (iii) for the future, it is projected large difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. They will be particular important for a global warming of +3°C and more; (iv) there is little hope that an intense volcanic activity could slow down<strong> </strong>this regression.</p>

Engaging Regional Stakeholders in Scenario Planning for the Long-Term Preservation of Ecosystem Services in Northwestern Virginia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iara Lacher ◽  
Thomas Akre ◽  
William J. McShea ◽  
Marissa McBride ◽  
Jonathan R. Thompson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Shenandoah Valley ◽  
The Future

This case study describes the application of a framework for developing stakeholder-driven scenarios of the future. The purpose of these scenarios is to inform land use planning toward the protection of ecosystems and derivable ecosystem services in Northwestern Virginia. We held two scenario development workshops with regional experts in conservation, agriculture, land use planning, policy, and economic development to create scenarios of land use in the northern Piedmont and northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. We structured the workshops around a framework that guided stakeholders through several steps eventually resulting in four unique scenarios describing the region in 50 years. Scenario narratives were defined by the intersection of highly influential and uncertain drivers of change relevant to land use planning and ecosystem services. Participants from the northern Shenandoah Valley region selected population growth and climate change adaptation as their scenario defining drivers, while participants from the northern Piedmont region selected planning strategy and climate change impact as their scenario defining drivers. Participants fleshed out scenarios into descriptive narratives that incorporated qualitative and quantitative measures of change. Details from the scenario narratives informed land use change models to further quantify tradeoffs between land use planning decisions and ecosystem services. Individuals interested in using scenario planning to guide research efforts, conservation, or land use planning, or even to broaden perspectives on how to view the future, will find value in this case study.

scholarly journals Mapping tree species for restoration potential resilient to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina van Tiel ◽  
Lisha Lyu ◽  
Fabian Fopp ◽  
Johan van den Hoogen ◽  
Dirk Nikolaus Karger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Planting ◽  
Niche Width ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Ecological Conditions ◽  
The Future

The restoration of forest ecosystems is associated with key benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Where possible, ecosystem restoration efforts should be guided by a detailed knowledge of the native flora to regenerate ecosystems in a way that benefits natural biodiversity, ecosystem services, and nature's contribution to people. Machine learning can map the ecological suitability of tree species globally, which then can guide restoration efforts, especially in regions where knowledge about the native tree flora is still insufficient. We developed an algorithm that combines ecological niche modelling and geographic distributions that allows for the high resolution (1km) global mapping of the native range and suitability of 3,987 tree species under current and future climatic conditions. We show that in most regions where forest cover could be potentially increased, heterogeneity in ecological conditions and narrow species niche width limit species occupancy, so that in several areas with reforestation potential, a large amount of potentially suitable species would be required for successful reforestation. Local tree planting efforts should consider a wide variety of species to ensure that the equally large variety of ecological conditions can be covered. Under climate change, a large fraction of the surface for restoration will suffer significant turnover in suitability, so that areas that are suitable for many species under current conditions will not be suitable in the future anymore. Such a turnover due to shifting climate is less pronounced in regions containing species with broader geographical distributions. This indicates that if restoration decisions are solely based on current climatic conditions, a large fraction of the restored area will become unsuitable in the future. Decisions on forest restoration should therefore take the niche width of a tree species into account to mitigate the risk of climate-driven ecosystem degradation.

A world transformed by climate justice

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-365
Author(s):  
Madita Standke-Erdmann ◽  
Alina Viehoff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Climate Justice ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Guiding Principle ◽  
The Future

What will the world look like in 2040 and how did we get there? How will climate change, one of, if not the most pressing issue of our times be tackled on a global scale? With these questions in mind, this article invites the reader to perform a thought experiment into the future. Following an imagined snapshot of the year 2040, the reader is guided through major global developments regarding climate change, social movements and, eventually, climate justice from the 2020s to 2040s. By imagining social, political and economic consequences of climate change and responses to them, this article paints a picture of what the future could look like if climate justice became a guiding principle in the struggle of mitigating the effects of climate change. Suggesting a paradigm shift from securitizing climate change to securing climate justice, this ‘future’ calls for a discursive turn of the manner in which climate change is thought of and acted upon. It requires different entities, including academia, to recognize their role as political actors within society. Consequently, it is crucial to reflect upon whose security is (not) considered but also which responses are taken into account in what way to mitigate security risks related to climate change. The article concludes that imagining a future of climate justice is pivotal to finding solutions to the challenges we are confronted with, that is, keeping the metaphoric ship from crashing into the cliffs.

Nutrient constraints on the Amazon carbon sink: from field measurements to model projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin Fleischer ◽  
Carlos Alberto Quesada ◽  
David Lapola ◽  
Lucia Fuchslueger ◽  
Laynara Lugli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Soil Phosphorus ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The Future ◽  
Increasing Demand

<p>The Amazon rainforest faces immense pressures from human-induced deforestation and climate change and its future existence is largely indeterminate. Accurately projecting the forest’s response to future conditions, and thus preparing for the best possible outcome, requires a sound process-based understanding of its ecological and biogeochemical functioning. The intact forest acts as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), however, this invaluable function is slowing down for unclear reasons, according to long-term plot measurements of tree growth. Earth system models, on the other hand, assume a continuous sink of carbon into the 21<sup>st</sup> century, predominantly driven by CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, concurrently buffering against adverse effects by climate change. Advancing empirical and experimental evidence points to strong nutrient constraints on the Amazon carbon sink, foremostly by phosphorus and other cations, so that the projected strength of the future carbon sink is certainly unrealistic. It is highly uncertain, however, to which degree nutrients are and will diminish elevated CO<sub>2</sub>-induced productivity, and to which extent plant-based mechanisms may upregulate phosphorus supply or optimize phosphorus use to facilitate the increasing demand by elevated CO<sub>2</sub>. Site-scale ecosystem model ensemble analysis underscores the diverging hypotheses on phosphorus feedbacks we are currently facing. In addition, heterogeneous soil phosphorus availability across the Amazon basin, in combination with a hyperdiverse plant community, challenges current efforts to project phosphorus constraints on the future of the Amazon carbon sink. We here give an outlook of current progress and future research needs of model-experiment integration to tackle this pressing question.</p>

Social Capital and Climate Change Adaptation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Aldrich ◽  
Courtney M. Page-Tan ◽  
Christopher J. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
National Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
The Future

Anthropogenic climate change increasingly disrupts livelihoods, floods coastal urban cities and island nations, and exacerbates extreme weather events. There is near-universal consensus among scientists that in order to reverse or at least mitigate climate disruptions, limits must be imposed on anthropogenic sources of climate-forcing emissions and adaptation to changing global conditions will be necessary. Yet adaptation to current and future climate change at the individual, community, and national levels vary widely from merely coping, to engaging in adaptive change, to transformative shifts. Some of those affected simply cope with lower crop yields, flooded streets, and higher cooling bills. Others incrementally adapt to new environmental conditions, for example, by raising seawalls or shifting from one crop to another better suited for a hotter environment. The highest—and perhaps least likely—type of change involves transformation, radically altering practices with an eye toward the future. Transformative adaptation may involve a livelihood change or permanent migration; it might require shuttering whole industries and rethinking industrial policy at the national level. Entire island nations such as Fiji, for example, are considering relocating from vulnerable locations to areas better suited to rising sea levels. A great deal of research has shown how social capital (the bonding, bridging, and linking connections to others) provides information on trustworthiness, facilitates collective action, and connects us to external resources during disasters and crises. We know far less about the relationship between social capital and adaptation behaviors in terms of the choices that people make to accommodate changing environmental conditions. A number of unanswered but critical questions remain: How precisely does social capital function in climate change adaptation? To what degree does strong bonding social capital substitute for successful adaptation behaviors for individuals or groups? Which combinations of social factors make coping, adapting, and transforming most likely? How can social capital help migrating populations maintain cultural identity under stress? How can local networks be integrated into higher-level policy interventions to improve adaptation? Which political and social networks contribute to transformative responses to climate change at local, regional, and international levels? This article serves as a comprehensive literature review, overview of empirical findings to date, and a research agenda for the future.

100% renewable electricity by mid century in italy?

2012 ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
Gianni Silvestrini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
National Level ◽  
Electric Sector ◽  
Clear Vision ◽  
The Future ◽  
Reduce Carbon Emission ◽  
Geographical Scope

Climate change will be in the future one of the most influential driving force for energy policies. In the electric sector will therefore be important to find solution to reduce carbon emission. With the shrinking share of nuclear power, Carbon Capture Sequestration will play an important role, although the largest contribution will come from renewable energies. Ambitious roadmaps and new targets have already been set - Germany plans to cover 80% of its electric demand with renewables by 2050 - based on studies indicating the possibility to achieve 100% of the electric demand through renewable energy by 2050. The capital required is significant, although over a long period (over 40 years) the economic impact of this transition will be limited. With an increasing renewable share and the need to convert a large electricity market, Italy should incorporate a longer-term perspective and vision and a broader geographical scope. After the nuclear referendum, it is important to discuss scenarios at national level coherent with international indications and climate change constraints and launch a revolutionary approach; but at present is lacking the clear vision of the future required to do so.

scholarly journals Carbon variation of dry grasslands in Central Asia in response to climate controls and grazing appropriation

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shihua Zhu ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Xia Fang ◽  
Liangzhong Cao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Grazing Intensity ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
C Sequestration ◽  
C Dynamics ◽  
C Stocks ◽  
The Impact

AbstractQuantification of grassland carbon (C) variations is necessary for understanding how grazing and climate change interact to regulate carbon capture and release. Central Asia (CA) has the largest temperate grassland belt in the world and unique temperate dryland ecosystems, which experienced severe climate change and grazing-induced disturbances. However, the impact of grazing on C dynamics is highly uncertain owing to climate variations. Here, an arid ecosystem model (AEM) supplemented with a grazing module that specifically addressed physiological and ecological characteristics of dryland vegetation was developed to quantitatively simulate grassland C dynamics in response to changes in precipitation, temperature, grazing intensity, and CO2 level in the past decades. The regional simulation results showed that net primary productivity (NPP) was affected mainly by precipitation (in 59% of the studied area). Grazing had a negative effect on NPP and C stocks, whereas overcompensation occurred in 25.71% of the studied area, mainly in the dry western parts. The complex interaction effects of climate, CO2, and grazing negatively affected productivity, with a grassland NPP decrease of − 1.14 g C/m2/a and high interannual variability. We found that the temporal pattern of cumulative C sequestration, especially total C and vegetation C (VEGC), closely followed the annual fluctuations of precipitation. VEGC stocks decreased from 182.22 to 177.82 g C/m2, with a very low value between 1998 and 2008, when precipitation significantly decreased. The results indicate that southern Xinjiang and the Turgay Plateau of Kazakhstan are ecologically fragile areas due to grassland degradation.

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