Climate change impact assessment of sub-alpine vegetation in national park using CMIP5 GCMs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaeuk Kim ◽  
Huicheul Jung ◽  
Insang Yu ◽  
Sung-Hun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
National Parks ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Alpine Vegetation ◽  
Distribution Method ◽  
The Impact

<p>In South Korea, national parks occupy the largest area among the protected areas designated to protect biodiversity and ecosystem. Among the 17 mountainous national parks, the vegetation in alpine and sub-alpine regions are very vulnerable to climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on sub-alpine vegetation considering uncertainties of future climate and the species distribution method. Observation data were gridded to 3 km spatial resolution from 1981 to 2010 using the Improved GIS-based Registry Model(IDW-IGISRM) based on the Inverse distance weighting(IDW). To reduce future uncertainty of climate change, future climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 GCM were utilized. In order to increase the spatial resolution of the GCM, Simple Quantile Mapping, one of the various bias correction and downscaling techniques, was applied. Bioclim DB, a bioclimatic variable considering temperature and moisture conditions, was established using monthly maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation data among detailed GCM data. Impact assessment was held using Biomod2 of R package, for endangered sub-alpine vegetation in the National Forest Inventory(NFI). Verification of the species distribution models were carried out using AUC(Area Under the Curve) and TSS(True Skill Statistics). The result of this study is expected to be utilized for protected area management measures for biodiversity conservation in forests.</p><p>※ This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Climate Change Correspondence Program, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(2018001310004).</p>

scholarly journals Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santosh Pingale ◽  
Jan Adamowski ◽  
Mahesh Jat ◽  
Deepak Khare
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Temporal Shift ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Ajmer District ◽  
The Impact

Abstract While assessing the effects of climate change at global or regional scales, local factors responsible for climate change are generalized, which results in the averaging of effects. However, climate change assessment is required at a micro-scale to determine the severity of climate change. To ascertain the impact of spatial scales on climate change assessments, trends and shifts in annual and seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon), rainfall and temperature (minimum, average and maximum) were determined at three different spatial resolutions in India (Ajmer city, Ajmer District and Rajasthan State). The Mann–Kendall (MK), MK test with pre-whitening of series (MK–PW), and Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, along with other statistical techniques were used for the trend analysis. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney (PMW) test was applied to detect the temporal shift in climatic parameters. The Sen’s slope and % change in rainfall and temperature were also estimated over the study period (35 years). The annual and seasonal average temperature indicates significant warming trends, when assessed at a fine spatial resolution (Ajmer city) compared to a coarser spatial resolution (Ajmer District and Rajasthan State resolutions). Increasing trend was observed in minimum, mean and maximum temperature at all spatial scales; however, trends were more pronounced at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city). The PMW test indicates only the significant shift in non-monsoon season rainfall, which shows an increase in rainfall after 1995 in Ajmer city. The Kurtosis and coefficient of variation also revealed significant climate change, when assessed at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city) compared to a coarser resolution. This shows the contribution of land use/land cover change and several other local anthropogenic activities on climate change. The results of this study can be useful for the identification of optimum climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies based on the severity of climate change at different spatial scales.

scholarly journals Predicting the current and future distribution of four original plants of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix in China under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houkang Cao ◽  
Xiaohui Ma ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Shaoyang Xi ◽  
Yanxiu Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Gentiana Macrophylla ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe wild resources of the four original plants (Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk, Gentiana daurica Fisch, Gentiana straminea Maxim, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall) of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix are becoming exhausted. Predicting the distribution under current and future climate scenarios is of significance for the sustainable utilization of resources and ecological protection. In this study, we constructed four species distribution models (SDMs) combining species distribution informations, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that these 4 plants prefer a cool and humid climate. Under the future climate scenarios, the areas of the highly suitable habitats for Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk and Gentiana daurica Fisch were likely to decrease, while Gentiana straminea Maxim was likely to expand, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall was less affected. In addition, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats for the four species shifted north or west. Most notably, most of the highly suitable habitats for the four species remained unchanged, which would be the preferred area for semi-artificial cultivation. The above information in this study would contribute to the development of reasonable strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the four original plants.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of the Current and Future Climate on the Yield, Quality, and Climate Suitability for Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze]: A Systematic Review

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Tea Quality ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
The Impact

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals How will future climate depending agronomic management impact the yield risk of wheat cropping systems? A regional case study of Eastern Denmark

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
J. Macholdt ◽  
J. Glerup Gyldengren ◽  
E. Diamantopoulos ◽  
M. E. Styczen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Catch Crops ◽  
Agronomic Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
Management Factors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

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