Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Integrated Modeling for Climate and Water Resources Scenarios: The Case of Lake Karla Over-Exploited Aquifer

Groundwater quantity and quality degradation by agricultural practices is recorded as one of the most critical issues worldwide. This is explained by the fact that groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, since it is a source of natural enrichment for rivers, lakes, and wetlands and constitutes the main source of potable water. The need of aquifers simulation, taking into account water resources components at watershed level, is imperative for the choice of appropriate restoration management practices. An integrated water resources modeling approach, using hydrological modeling tools, is presented for assessing the nitrate fate and transport on an over-exploited aquifer with intensive and extensive agricultural activity under various operational strategies and future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change affects nitrates concentration in groundwater, which is likely to be increased due to the depletion of the groundwater table and the decrease of groundwater enrichment in the future water balance. Application of operational agricultural management practices with the construction and use of water storage infrastructure tend to compensate the groundwater resources degradation due to climate change impacts.

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A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽

10.3390/w13233358 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 3358

Author(s):

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Roman Výleta ◽

Kamila Hlavčová ◽

Michaela Danáčová ◽

Milica Aleksić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Time Horizons ◽

The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

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Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11174764 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (17) ◽

pp. 4764 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Anna Sperotto ◽

Josè Luis Molina ◽

Silvia Torresan ◽

Andrea Critto ◽

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Bayesian Networks ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Large Variability ◽

Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

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ICDP workshop on scientific drilling of Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau: 1 million years of paleoenvironmental history, geomicrobiology, tectonics and paleomagnetism derived from sediments of a high-altitude lake

Scientific Drilling ◽

10.5194/sd-25-63-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 25 ◽

pp. 63-70

Author(s):

Torsten Haberzettl ◽

Gerhard Daut ◽

Nora Schulze ◽

Volkhard Spiess ◽

Junbo Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Deep Biosphere ◽

Nam Co ◽

Societal Relevance

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau is of peculiar societal relevance as it provides freshwater from the so-called “Water Tower of Asia” to a large portion of the Asian population. However, future climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in this area. To define parameters for future climate change scenarios it is necessary to improve the knowledge about thresholds, timing, pace and intensity of past climatic changes and associated environmental impacts. Sedimentary archives reaching far back in time and spanning several glacial–interglacial cycles such as Nam Co provide the unique possibility to extract such information. In order to explore the scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling effort at Nam Co would provide, 40 scientists from 13 countries representing various scientific disciplines met in Beijing from 22 to 24 May 2018. Besides paleoclimatic investigations, opportunities for paleomagnetic, deep biosphere, tectonic and paleobiological studies were discussed. After having explored the technical and logistical challenges and the scientific opportunities all participants agreed on the great value and need to drill this extraordinary archive, which has a sediment thickness of more than 1 km, likely covering more than 1 Ma.

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Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Water ◽

10.3390/w13243636 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (24) ◽

pp. 3636

Author(s):

Adeline Umugwaneza ◽

Xi Chen ◽

Tie Liu ◽

Zhengyang Li ◽

Solange Uwamahoro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

The Impact

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

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Present and future water security under socioeconomic and climate changes in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5306 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Andres Goyburo ◽

Pedro Rau ◽

Waldo Lavado ◽

Fabian Drenkhan ◽

Wouter Buytaert

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Water Security ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Current Water ◽

The Impact

This research assesses present (2009-2016) and future (until 2100) levels of water security taking into consideration socioeconomic and climate change scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool for semidistributed hydrological modeling. The study area covers the&#160; Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in the southern Peruvian Andes and presents a complex water demand context as a glacier-fed system.Current total water demand is estimated in 5.12E+9 m3/year and includes agriculture (6674.17 m3/year), domestic (7.79E+07m3/year), industrial (1.01E+06 m3/year) and energy (5.03e+9 m3/year) consumption. For assessing the current water supply, observed flow data is used to simulate and validate the model (also accounting for glacier melt contribution). The analysis of unmet water demand for the period 2016&#8211;2100 was computed using the soil moisture scheme of the WEAP model, which simulates the hydrological cycle and generates future scenarios for water demand. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth and increasing agriculture area) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system.&#160;These results will allow for the first time to evaluate the impact of changes in glacier melt contributions on water security taking into account also changes in water demand.This study also further explores the importance of incorporating science and policy within a broader study of water security. As a result, it is expected to deliver high spatial resolution water demand maps and adaptation strategies for stakeholders. This research is part of the RAHU project as a new multidisciplinary collaboration between UK and Peruvian scientists.

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Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modeling study to support better resource management

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-15-2245-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 15 (7) ◽

pp. 2245-2258 ◽

Cited By ~ 211

Author(s):

L. M. Mango ◽

A. M. Melesse ◽

M. E. McClain ◽

D. Gann ◽

S. G. Setegn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

East Africa ◽

River Basin ◽

Management Practices ◽

Cultural Landscapes ◽

Dry Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Resource Managers

Abstract. Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

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Plant Breeding and Management Strategies to Minimize the Impact of Water Scarcity and Biotic Stress in Cereal Crops under Mediterranean Conditions

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy12010075 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 75

Author(s):

Néstor Pérez-Méndez ◽

Cristina Miguel-Rojas ◽

Jose Antonio Jimenez-Berni ◽

David Gomez-Candon ◽

Alejandro Pérez-de-Luque ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Biotic And Abiotic Stress ◽

Fungal Disease Resistance ◽

New Varieties ◽

Rice Water ◽

The Impact

Wheat and rice are two main staple food crops that may suffer from yield losses due to drought episodes that are increasingly impacted by climate change, in addition to new epidemic outbreaks. Sustainable intensification of production will rely on several strategies, such as efficient use of water and variety improvement. This review updates the latest findings regarding complementary approaches in agronomy, genetics, and phenomics to cope with climate change challenges. The agronomic approach focuses on a case study examining alternative rice water management practices, with their impact on greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity for ecosystem services. The genetic approach reviews in depth the latest technologies to achieve fungal disease resistance, as well as the use of landraces to increase the genetic diversity of new varieties. The phenomics approach explores recent advances in high-throughput remote sensing technologies useful in detecting both biotic and abiotic stress effects on breeding programs. The complementary nature of all these technologies indicates that only interdisciplinary work will ensure significant steps towards a more sustainable agriculture under future climate change scenarios.

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Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.12201 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e12201

Author(s):

Panpan Du ◽

Ming Xu ◽

Renqiang Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Stress ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Belt And Road ◽

The Belt And Road

Background Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). Methods In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° by the random forest model. Results Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change.

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Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

The Scientific World JOURNAL ◽

10.1155/2014/672360 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-9 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Chang-An Yan ◽

Wanchang Zhang ◽

Zhijie Zhang

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Management Practices ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Water Environment ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Hydrological Simulation ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Hspf Model

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin.

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An analysis of unmet water demand under climate change scenarios in the Gualí River Basin, Colombia, through the implementation of Hydro-BID and WEAP hydrological modeling tools

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.118 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Darwin Mena ◽

Abel Solera ◽

Lina Restrepo ◽

Melissa Pimiento ◽

Miguel Cañón ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Planning System ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Limited Information ◽

Modeling Tools ◽

Modeling Tool ◽

Hydrological Services ◽

Real Challenge

Abstract Climate change can affect hydrological services in Andean basins, so a possible reduction in water supply can lead to not meeting the needs of different users, which has become a real challenge for decision-makers with regards to water management. This paper presents the results obtained from hydrological modeling exercises in the Gualí River Basin (Colombia) by combining the Hydro-BID modeling tool, which consists of an analytical hydrology database for Latin America and the Caribbean that provides a great advantage for countries with limited information and the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) modeling tool, in order to determine the potential impacts of climate change on unsatisfied demand for water in the basin. The results show a possible decrease in flow compared to current conditions; between 5.8% and 9.56% for CPR 2.6, and between 2.18% and 6.86% for CPR 8.5. The approach presented is useful to ensure that timely decisions are made to meet the demands of users under the conditions of climate change.

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