Evaluation of three short-range (0-6h) rain ensemble forecasts: study of the Aude October 2018 flash floods (southeastern France)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer ◽  
Olivier Payrastre ◽  
Eric Gaume ◽  
Pierre Nicolle ◽  
François Bouttier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Evaluation Scores ◽  
Threshold Exceedance

<p>The Aude river flash floods that occurred on October 15 and 16, 2018 are among the most important in southeastern France in recent years. The triggering rainfall of the event was characterized by a very fast evolution and low predictability. During the night, nearly 243.5mm of rain in 6 hours was recorded near the city of Carcassonne. In addition to significant considerable material damage, 15 people lost their lives during this flood and 99 people were injured. After the event, the CNRM proposed new forecast ensembles, targeting the possibility of short-term nowcasting (0-6h) of this phenomenon. These ensembles are based on the several NWP models of Météo France: the first ensemble corresponds to the operational AROME-PE product (12 members), the second is a combination of the AROME-PE and AROME-PI models (18 members); finally, the last ensemble corresponds to the second one with a spatial perturbation (90 members). In addition to these ensemble forecasts, ANTILOPE J+1 high resolution observed precipitation data are available.  The work presented here aims to evaluate, from a hydrological point of view, these three rainfall ensembles specifically designed to improve short-range rainfall now casting. Based on the CINECAR distributed hydrological model, discharge ensembles are calculated for nearly 1200 sub-watersheds with an elementary drainage area of 5km². These  forecasts  are compared for each sub-basin with the CINECAR simulation obtained with ANTILOPE J+1 rainfall data.This evaluation approach enables to compensate the lack of discharge observations during the event and to enlarge the dataset used for evaluation. The evaluation results presented combine synthetic scores (CRPS and rank diagrams) often used for ensemble forecasts, but also a user-oriented evaluation framework based on threshold exceedance detection and anticipation. Thresholds for each sub-watershed correspond to the 5, 10, 20 and 50 year return period discharges (SHYREG database). ROC curves are at first established independently of the level of anticipation. In a second time, the anticipation delays are analyzed,. This work finally reveals that (1) synthetic ensemble forecast evaluation scores are not always sufficient to evaluate forecasts; (2) the user oriented evaluation shows a clear hierarchy between the three forecast product ensembles in terms of threshold exceedance detection, but not in terms of anticipation levels.</p>

scholarly journals Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1181-1198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharanya J. Majumdar ◽  
Ryan D. Torn
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Probabilistic Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Homogeneous Sample ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Two Samples

Abstract Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign (15 August–30 September 2010) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts during the 2010–12 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Quantitative criteria for tropical cyclone (TC) formation were first determined from model analyses based on threshold values of lower-tropospheric circulation, local thickness anomaly, and minimum sea level pressure. A binary verification was then performed for all ensemble forecasts with initial-time tropical disturbances. During the PREDICT period, the ECMWF and WRF–EnKF had similar verification statistics, with reliability diagrams of positive slope flatter than unity, and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves that demonstrate skill. For the 2010–12 ECMWF ensemble forecasts, the equitable threat score was small and positive, with skill mostly lost after 5 days. The reliability diagrams for 1–5-day forecasts were monotonic increasing, though an overly large number of short-range ensemble forecasts predicted a low probability of a TC when a TC was verified. The ROC curves exhibited similar skill for forecasts out to 5 days. The reliability curves were sensitive to parameters such as time tolerance and threshold values, and insensitive to cases that originated from African easterly waves versus those that did not. Qualitative investigations revealed case-to-case variability in the probabilistic predictions. While the sample size was limited, the ensembles showed the potential for probabilistic prediction out to 5 days, though it appeared that the model struggled with developing a warm core in the short-range forecast.

The holistic risk analysis of spent fuel pool considering the fuel route risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2199851
Author(s):  
Zhixin Xu ◽  
Ming Wang ◽  
Binyan Song ◽  
WenYu Hou ◽  
Chao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Spent Fuel ◽  
Nuclear Disaster ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Fuel Assemblies ◽  
Spent Fuel Pool ◽  
Large Water ◽  
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has raised the importance on the reliability and risk research of the spent fuel pool (SFP), including the risk of internal events, fire, external hazards and so on. From a safety point of view, the low decay heat of the spent fuel assemblies and large water inventory in the SFP has made the accident progress goes very slow, but a large number of fuel assemblies are stored inside the spent fuel pool and without containment above the SFP building, it still has an unignored risk to the safety of the nuclear power plant. In this paper, a standardized approach for performing a holistic and comprehensive evaluation approach of the SFP risk based on the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) method has been developed, including the Level 1 SFP PSA and Level 2 SFP PSA and external hazard PSA. The research scope of SFP PSA covers internal events, internal flooding, internal fires, external hazards and new risk source-fuel route risk is also included. The research will provide the risk insight of Spent Fuel Pool operation, and can help to make recommendation for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents which will be applicable for the SFP configuration risk management.

scholarly journals E-Tax Website Quality: An Evaluation Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 38-48
Author(s):  
Sadia Qadar ◽  
Amani Moazzam ◽  
Nighat Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Practical Implication ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Website Quality ◽  
Critical Characteristics

The study aims to evaluate the e-tax portal of Pakistan on the basis of the opinion of its users. It identifies the critical characteristics of quality that significantly exist in the e-tax portal and the characteristics that need to be given attention by the administrators as they are not up to the mark and do not show their significant presence. The study also highlights the problems faced by the users followed by the suggestions given by them in order to improve the quality of e-tax portal. As far as the practical implication of the study is concerned, it will help the FBR authorities to get an idea about the quality of e-tax website from the point of view of e-tax users which will enable them to take certain measure to improve the quality of e-portal and consequently the service level.

Abstract W P274: Developmental Evaluation Enhances Utility of the Toronto Stroke Networks Virtual Community of Practice

Stroke ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Fortin ◽  
Krystyna Skryabka ◽  
Gail Avinoam ◽  
Shelley Sharp ◽  
Jacqueline Willems ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Community Of Practice ◽  
Interprofessional Collaboration ◽  
Healthcare Providers ◽  
Virtual Community ◽  
Stroke Care ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Developmental Evaluation ◽  
Virtual Community Of Practice ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Value Add

Background: The Toronto Stroke Networks (TSNs) Virtual Community of Practice (VCoP) was developed to connect stroke healthcare providers (HCPs), enhance professional and organizational stroke expertise, foster implementation of best practices, and improve patient outcomes in stroke care. The VCoP is a secure social media platform fostering cross system interprofessional collaboration (IPC). Purpose: To use formative developmental evaluation to inform further improvement of the VCoP’s content and performance and to measure its efficacy as a KT tool to support IPC. Methods: An evaluation framework was developed based on “Promoting and assessing value creation in communities and networks” (Wengar, 2011). Stroke HCPs from 15 organizations in the TSNs were provided VCoP training to build virtual competence and to seek feedback for enhanced utility. The TSNs Education and KT Implementation Plan for 2013-2014 integrated activities that encourage VCoP use. These activities include co-development of educational material across sites, information sharing between meetings, and to support implementation of specific activities. Qualitative (e.g. value stories, narratives) and quantitative indicators (e.g. membership and usage) data are evaluated. Results: The TSNs VCoP currently has: 287 members and 26 groups (open and private groups with 4-19 members). There are 8 interprofessional discussions, with a total of 20 pre-populated and requested forums. Feedback from the membership has prompted investments to improve search features and identification of members within the site for more efficient collaborations. Uploading of Provincial Stroke Rounds, provision of a Research and Knowledge Translation Widget, and securing a space for HCPs to submit recommended presentations were added to increase the value-add of the site as a one-stop shop for Stroke HCPs seeking stroke care information. Qualitative analysis of value stories demonstrating the efficacy of the VCoP for IPC is in progress and will be available at time of publishing. Conclusions: The VCoP is an innovative approach to enhancing the system of stroke care. This formative developmental evaluation approach has enhanced the utility of the VCoP as a source for stroke information and HCP connections.

An Integrated Evaluation Approach for E-Learning Systems in Career and Technical Education

2009 ◽  
pp. 396-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenhao David Huang ◽  
Steven R. Aragon
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Load ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Learning Systems ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Evaluation Data ◽  
Career And Technical ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
E Learning ◽  
Future Evaluation

As E-learning is gaining popularity in higher education, its evaluation becomes more critical than ever, to ensure the achievement of intended learning outcome. The effectiveness of E-learning system evaluation under current practices, however, remains questionable. One reason for such uncertainty is the lack of direct measurement while learning occurs since most evaluation data is collected after the learning process. Thus this chapter proposes an integrated evaluation approach for E-learning systems based on Cognitive Load Theory and grounded in the 4C/ID-model. Both direct and indirect measurements will be deployed in the integrated approach in the context of cognitive load. Furthermore all evaluation data can be translated into practical E-learning design solutions by triangulating with the 4C/ID-model. This chapter also suggests that future evaluation framework on E-learning should include factors from attitudinal and social aspects of learning process.

scholarly journals Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Xuan ◽  
I. D. Cluckie ◽  
Y. Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Short Range ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty

Abstract. Advances in mesoscale numerical weather predication make it possible to provide rainfall forecasts along with many other data fields at increasingly higher spatial resolutions. It is currently possible to incorporate high-resolution NWPs directly into flood forecasting systems in order to obtain an extended lead time. It is recognised, however, that direct application of rainfall outputs from the NWP model can contribute considerable uncertainty to the final river flow forecasts as the uncertainties inherent in the NWP are propagated into hydrological domains and can also be magnified by the scaling process. As the ensemble weather forecast has become operationally available, it is of particular interest to the hydrologist to investigate both the potential and implication of ensemble rainfall inputs to the hydrological modelling systems in terms of uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we employ a distributed hydrological model to analyse the performance of the ensemble flow forecasts based on the ensemble rainfall inputs from a short-range high-resolution mesoscale weather model. The results show that: (1) The hydrological model driven by QPF can produce forecasts comparable with those from a raingauge-driven one; (2) The ensemble hydrological forecast is able to disseminate abundant information with regard to the nature of the weather system and the confidence of the forecast itself; and (3) the uncertainties as well as systematic biases are sometimes significant and, as such, extra effort needs to be made to improve the quality of such a system.

scholarly journals Historical School Buildings. A Multi-Criteria Approach for Urban Sustainable Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Rosaria Guarini ◽  
Pierluigi Morano ◽  
Francesco Sica
Keyword(s):  
Regulatory System ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
School Buildings ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Historic Center ◽  
Public Property ◽  
Evaluation Protocol ◽  
Multi Criteria Evaluation ◽  
Urban Intervention

It is recognized, in Europe and elsewhere, that there is a need to implement sustainable urban intervention policies based also on the recovery of existing public real estate assets. In Italy, the schools are a significant part of public property. At this time (2019), many buildings destined for teaching need to be redeveloped, both from a structural and plant engineering point of view, and with regard to the management of the spaces available for teaching and social activities. Although, there have been many attempts by the legislator to regulate the modus operandi in the school construction field, it is clear that there is a lack of a unique regulatory system in which the technical and functional-managerial aspects relating to the same school are considered together. On this basis, with this study a multi-criteria evaluation protocol to support intervention planning for the redevelopment of existing school buildings is proposed. The study defines an evaluation framework with which we can establish the design priorities to be carried out in accordance with the building features and community needs. The evaluation framework is tested on a renewal project regarding a school building located in the historic center of Rome (Italy).

scholarly journals Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts for the 27 April 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak in Alabama

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (8) ◽  
pp. 3044-3066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nusrat Yussouf ◽  
David C. Dowell ◽  
Louis J. Wicker ◽  
Kent H. Knopfmeier ◽  
Dustan M. Wheatley
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Type System ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Arw Model

Abstract As part of NOAA’s Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) initiative, a multiscale ensemble-based assimilation and prediction system is developed using the WRF-ARW model and DART assimilation software. To evaluate the capabilities of the system, retrospective short-range probabilistic storm-scale (convection allowing) ensemble analyses and forecasts are produced for the 27 April 2011 Alabama severe weather outbreak. Results indicate that the storm-scale ensembles are able to analyze the observed storms with strong low-level rotation at approximately the correct locations and to retain the supercell structures during the 0–1-h forecasts with reasonable accuracy. The system predicts the low-level mesocyclones of significant isolated tornadic supercells that align well with the locations of radar-derived rotation. For cases with multiple interacting storms in close proximity, the system tends to produce more variability in mesocyclone forecasts from one initialization time to the next until the observations show the dominance of one of the cells. The short-range ensemble probabilistic forecasts obtained from this continuous 5-min storm-scale 6-h-long update system demonstrate the potential of a frequently updated, high-resolution NWP system that could be used to extend severe weather warning lead times. This study also demonstrates the challenges associated with developing a WoF-type system. The results motivate future work to reduce model errors associated with storm motion and spurious cells, and to design storm-scale ensembles that better represent typical 1-h forecast errors.

scholarly journals Confidence Interval Estimation for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Using Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Sun Im ◽  
Keith Brill ◽  
Edwin Danaher
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Abstract The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) at the NCEP has produced a suite of deterministic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for over 40 yr. While the operational forecasts have proven to be useful in their present form, they offer no information concerning the uncertainties of individual forecasts. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology to quantify the uncertainty in manually produced 6-h HPC QPFs (HQPFs) using NCEP short-range ensemble forecasts (SREFs). Results presented herein show the SREFs can predict the uncertainty of HQPFs. The correlation between HQPF absolute error (AE) and ensemble QPF spread (SP) is greater than 0.5 at 90.5% of grid points in the continental United States, exceeding 0.8 at 10% of these, for the 6-h forecast in winter. On the basis of the high correlation, the linear regression equations of AE on SP are derived at each point on a grid covering the United States. In addition, the regression equations for data categorized according to the observed and forecasted precipitation amounts are obtained and evaluated. Using the regression model equation parameters for 15 categorized ranges of HQPF at each horizontal grid point for each season and individual forecast lead time, an AE associated with an individual SP is predicted, as is the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the AE. Based on the AE CI forecast and the HQPF itself, the 95% CI of the HQPF is predicted as well. This study introduces an efficient and advanced method, providing an estimate of the uncertainty in the deterministic HQPF. Verification demonstrates the usefulness of the CI forecasts for a variety of classifications, such as season, CI range, HQPF, and forecast lead time.

scholarly journals Application of a distributed hydrological model to the design of a road inundation warning system for flash flood prone areas

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 805-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-A. Versini ◽  
E. Gaume ◽  
H. Andrieu
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Erosion Processes ◽  
Stage Of Development

Abstract. This paper presents an initial prototype of a distributed hydrological model used to map possible road inundations in a region frequently exposed to severe flash floods: the Gard region (South of France). The prototype has been tested in a pseudo real-time mode on five recent flash flood events for which actual road inundations have been inventoried. The results are promising: close to 100% probability of detection of actual inundations, inundations detected before they were reported by the road management field teams with a false alarm ratios not exceeding 30%. This specific case study differs from the standard applications of rainfall-runoff models to produce flood forecasts, focussed on a single or a limited number of gauged river cross sections. It illustrates that, despite their lack of accuracy, hydro-meteorological forecasts based on rainfall-runoff models, especially distributed models, contain valuable information for flood event management. The possible consequences of landslides, debris flows and local erosion processes, sometimes associated with flash floods, were not considered at this stage of development of the prototype. They are limited in the Gard region but should be taken into account in future developments of the approach to implement it efficiently in other areas more exposed to these phenomena such as the Alpine area.

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