Future Holiday Climate Index (HCI) Performances of Urban and Beach Destinations in the Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Sibel Saygili Araci ◽  
O. Cenk Demiroglu ◽  
Aytac Pacal ◽  
C. Michael Hall ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Elevation Model ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Web

<p>Tourism is a major socioeconomic contributor to established and emerging destinations in the Mediterranean region. Recent studies introducing the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) highlight the significance of climate as a factor in sustaining the competitiveness of coastal and urban destinations. The aim of this study is to assess the future HCI performances of urban and beach destinations in the greater Mediterranean region. For this purpose, HCI scores for the reference (1971-2000) and future (2021-2050, 2070-2099) periods were computed with the use of two latest greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, based on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain and data. The outputs were adjusted to a 500 m resolution via the use of lapse rate corrections that extrapolate the climate model topography against a resampled digital elevation model. All periodic results were seasonally aggregated and visualized on a (web) geographical information system (GIS). The web version of the GIS also allowed for a basic climate service where any user can search her/his place of interest overlaid with index ratings. Exposure levels are revealed at the macro scale while sensitivity is discussed through a validation of the climatic outputs against visitation data for one of Mediterranean's leading destinations, Antalya. HCI:Urban results showed that Canary Islands hold suitable conditions for tourism during almost all four seasons and all five periods which will have certain implications when other core Mediterranean competitors lose their relative climatic attractiveness. HCI:Beach results for the summer season showed that Las Canteras, Alicate, Pampelonne, Myrtos, Golden Sands and Edremit all pose Very Good to Excellent conditions without any Humidex risks for the extreme future scenario (2070-2099 RCP8.5). <br>Much detailed outputs of the study can be viewed from the web service at: <br>http://climatechange.boun.edu.tr/en/holiday-climatology-of-the-mediterranean/</p><p>.</p>

scholarly journals Future Holiday Climate Index (HCI) Performance of Urban and Beach Destinations in the Mediterranean

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 911 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Cenk Demiroglu ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
Aytac Pacal ◽  
C. Michael Hall ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Elevation Model

Tourism is a major socioeconomic contributor to established and emerging destinations in the Mediterranean region. Recent studies introducing the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) highlight the significance of climate as a factor in sustaining the competitiveness of coastal and urban destinations. The aim of this study is to assess the future HCI performance of urban and beach destinations in the greater Mediterranean region. For this purpose, HCI scores for the reference (1971–2000) and future (2021–2050, 2070–2099) periods were computed with the use of two latest greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, based on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain and data. The outputs were adjusted to a 500 m resolution via the use of lapse rate corrections that extrapolate the climate model topography against a resampled digital elevation model. All periodic results were seasonally aggregated and visualized on a (web) geographical information system (GIS). The web version of the GIS also allowed for a basic climate service where any user can search her/his place of interest overlaid with index ratings. Exposure levels are revealed at the macro scale while sensitivity is discussed through a validation of the climatic outputs against visitation data for one of Mediterranean’s leading destinations, Antalya.

scholarly journals Assessment of gridded observations used for climate model validation in the Mediterranean region: the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX framework

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 024017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Philippe Drobinski ◽  
Marco Borga ◽  
Jean-Christophe Calvet ◽  
Guy Delrieu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Validation ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The Mediterranean

Investigation of the Climate Change Effects on the Mediterranean Region with the Hypothetical inclusion of the Istanbul Isthmus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elcin Tan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

<p>A debate on the probable Istanbul Isthmus Project that may have catastrophic impacts on our ecosystem has been recently accelerated in public, due to the fact that the approved environmental impact assessment (EIA) report of the hypothetical Istanbul Isthmus (HII) Project has recently been announced. The EIA report indicates that the assessment covers only the current conditions and the conditions that may arise during the construction of the HII. Unfortunately, The EIA report did not evaluate the climate change impact on either the Istanbul Area or Mediterranean Region after the inclusion of the HII, only the current conditions were evaluated. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of HII on the climate of the Mediterranean Region. The climate version of the WRF Model is utilized with 9 km resolution for the Region 12: Mediterranean (CORDEX) for the historical conditions and RCP8.5 scenarios of available climate model results from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projects. Land surface and land use maps are prepared by following the EIA report if the necessary information is included, otherwise, the current conditions are applied. The atmospheric conditions were not coupled to an Ocean Model, only the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values of the Ocean Models are coupled to the WRF model during both historical and future simulations. The model results are evaluated in terms of temperature, precipitation, and sea-level changes. Consequently, the results indicate that the HII may decrease the resilience of the Mediterranean Region to Climate Change.</p>

Impacts of model spatial resolution on intense and heavy precipitation events over the Mediterranean region.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Conte ◽  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Silvio Gualdi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Dynamical downscaling through coupled regional climate model plays an important role to improve climate information at regional fine-scale, since it modulates information produced by GCM, combining planetary scale processes with regional scale processes.  This study describes the impact of climate change  on rainfall over the Mediterranean region, downscaling, at two different horizontal grid resolutions (0.44 and 0.11 degs), a Global Climate Model (GCM at 0.75 degs) by means of a coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSM). We analyze the effect of adopting model version with different horizontal resolutions (0.11, 0.44 e 0.75 degs), considering  two climate representative concentration pathways (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5). The spatial pattern on different aspects of precipitation climatology are investigated such as increase/decrease in the intensity of precipitation events, extremes and annual amount of wet days. Moreover, since the grid models cover a wide and complex climate geographic area, the rainfall probability over six sub-regions are calculated: (1) Alps, (2) North-Western coast, (2) South Italy, (3) central part of the Mediterranean sea, (4) Greece Anatolia peninsula and Levantine basin. Although, the evaluation of RCSM downscaling is complex and depends on several factors such as: variables considered, geographic area, topography, model configuration and so on, the results show that it produces an significant improvement, adding information with regards to fine-scale spatial pattern, respect to that provided by GCM.</p><p><strong>ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:</strong> This contribution is based on work conducted by the authors within the SOCLIMPACT project, that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 776661. The fullname of the project is "DownScaling CLImate ImPACTs and decarbonisation pathways in EU islands, and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and Beyond". The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and should not be considered as representative of the European Commission’s official position.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong>  widespread heavy rainfall, coupled numerical models, daily rainfall, climate scenarios, climatology of heavy rainfall.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Erosion Modelling In A Mediterranean Subcatchment Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA)

2015 ◽  
Vol XL-7/W3 ◽  
pp. 359-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Cilek ◽  
S. Berberoglu ◽  
M. Kirkby ◽  
B. Irvine ◽  
C. Donmez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Soil Erosion Risk ◽  
The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is particularly prone to erosion. This is because it is subject to long dry periods followed by heavy bursts of erosive rainfall, falling on steep slopes with fragile soils, resulting in considerable amounts of erosion. In parts of the Mediterranean region, erosion has reached a stage of irreversibility and in some places erosion has practically ceased because there is no more soil left. With a very slow rate of soil formation, any soil loss of more than 1 t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> can be considered as irreversible within a time span of 50-100 years. The objectives of this study were i) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion under climate change scenarios in study area ii) to assess the hydrological runoff processes. <br><br> In this study, climate data, land use, topographic and physiographic properties were assembled for Egribuk Subcatchment at Seyhan River Basin in Turkey and used in a process-based Geographical Information System (GIS) to determine the hydrological sediment potential and quantify reservoir sedimentation. The estimated amount of sediment transported downstream is potentially large based on hydrological runoff processes using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model. The detailed model inputs included 128 variables derived mainly from, soil, climate, land use/cover, topography data sets. The outcomes of this research were spatial and temporal distribution of erosion amount in t ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> or month<sup>−1</sup>.

scholarly journals Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3235-3250 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Philandras ◽  
P. T. Nastos ◽  
J. Kapsomenakis ◽  
K. C. Douvis ◽  
G. Tselioudis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Rain Season ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010) and rain days (1965–2010) from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP) of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period) and the period 2071–2100 (future climate) were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI). The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B. The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level) negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL) appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level), appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These correlations are higher within the rain season (October–March) than the entire year. Based on the results of regional climate model RACMO2.1/KNMI, precipitation is very likely to decrease almost 20% in the period 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, under SRES A1B.

scholarly journals Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Brogli ◽  
Silje Lund Sørland ◽  
Nico Kröner ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Circulation Changes

&lt;p&gt;The Mediterranean is among the global 'hot-spots' of climate change, where severe consequences of climate change are expected. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle are among the leading causes of the vulnerability of the Mediterranean to greenhouse gas-driven warming. Specifically, precipitation is projected to decrease year-round, which is expected to have major impacts on hydrology, biodiversity, agriculture, hydropower, and further economic sectors that rely on sufficient water supply.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We investigate possible causes of the Mediterranean drying in regional climate simulations. To isolate the influence of multiple large-scale drivers on the drying, we sequentially add the respective drivers from global models to regional climate model simulations. We show that the causes of the Mediterranean drying depend on the season. We will present in detail how the summer drying is driven by the land-ocean warming contrast, lapse-rate and other thermodynamic changes, while it only weakly depends on circulation changes. In contrast, changes in the circulation are the primary driver for the projected winter precipitation decline. Since land-ocean contrast, thermodynamic and lapse-rate changes are more robust in climate simulations than circulation changes, the uncertainty associated with the projected drying should be considered smaller in summer than in winter.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reference: Brogli, R., S. L. S&amp;#248;rland, N. Kr&amp;#246;ner, and C. Sch&amp;#228;r, 2019: Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 114017, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals CHANGES IN PARAMETERIZATIONS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL REGCM4.4.5: THE ROLE OF LAND COVER ON REGIONAL CLIMATE OVER MEDITERRANEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1062
Author(s):  
K. Velikou ◽  
K. Tolika ◽  
Ch. Anagnostopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Mediterranean Forests ◽  
The Mediterranean

A parameter that affects significantly the local, regional and global climate system is land cover and the changes that may occur to it. During winter season, heavy precipitation assists vegetation growth of Mediterranean forests and woodlands, whereas during summer, absence of precipitation and severe heat waves result to arid and semiarid vegetation. For that reason, it was quite interesting to track the changes that may occur in the climate of the Mediterranean region due to land cover/land use changes on regional climate over the Mediterranean region. The main objective of the study is the assessment of the impacts of land cover/land use changes on regional climate over the Mediterranean region. The examined regional climate model used in the study is RegCM4.4.5. Its spatial resolution is 25x25km and different simulations were performed with changes in land cover/land use for the time period 1981-1990. The different simulated data were compared in order to examine the modifications that occur from land cover/land use changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo to direct and diffuse radiation in the domain of study.

Ostrea offreti Kilian 1889 du Miocene circummediterraneen

1961 ◽  
Vol S7-III (3) ◽  
pp. 288-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georges Lecointre ◽  
G. Ranson
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Type Specimen ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Almost all pelecypods from Miocene localities of the Mediterranean region which have been assigned to Ostrea boblayei should have been assigned to O. offreti instead. The type specimen of O. boblayei is actually only a very fine example of O. lamellosa. O. offreti is apparently the Miocene form, O. lamellosa the Pliocene form.

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