Occurrence and impacts of heat waves events in a glacierized basin in the subtropical Andes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Bravo ◽  
Pablo Paredes ◽  
Nicolás Donoso ◽  
Sebastián Cisternas
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Subtropical Andean glaciers are losing mass in response to the long-term atmospheric warming and precipitation decrease. Extreme events as heat waves, however, seems to potentially play a key role in the sustained ice loss detected in the last decades. Increased frequency of heat wave events have been detected in the central valley of Chile, however, the occurrence and impact of these events on the Andean cryosphere remain unknown. The main reason is associated with the lack of meteorological observations at higher elevations in the Andes. </p><p>In filling this gap, we present an assessment of the occurrence of heat waves in the glacierized Río Olivares basin (33°S), which comprise an elevation range between ~1500  and ~6000 m a.s.l. and where a strong ice loss has been detected during the last decades. The main aim is to analyse the correspondence of heat waves events occurred with those in the nearby city of Santiago located in the central valley of Chile and to assess the potential impacts of these events on the glaciers located in this basin. Using meteorological observations in Río Olivares basin and in Santiago between the years 2013 and 2020, heat wave events were determined. We estimated the heat wave events using the monthly 90th percentile and the adjustment of a harmonic function. An additional adjustment relative to the climate period 1981-2010 was also introduced. The results determined 66 events in the Río Olivares basin while in Santiago were 53 events. These results reveal high spatial variability in the occurrences of heat waves as only 49% of the events in Santiago were detected in the Río Olivares basin. Ongoing work is focused on analysing the impacts of these events over the glaciers of the basin. Here, through the use of the computed basin-scale 0°C isotherm, the relation between glacier area under melt (i.e. glacier area located below the 0°C isotherm) and the heat wave events will be shown. The findings of this works reinforce the need for more observational efforts over high elevations in the Andes in order to robustly assess and at a basin scale, the impact of extreme events on the Andean cryosphere.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Recent Heat Waves on Human Health in California

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen Guirguis ◽  
Alexander Gershunov ◽  
Alexander Tardy ◽  
Rupa Basu
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Temperature Threshold ◽  
Average Hospital ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North And South

AbstractThis study examines the health impacts of recent heat waves statewide and for six subregions of California: the north and south coasts, the Central Valley, the Mojave Desert, southern deserts, and northern forests. By using canonical correlation analysis applied to daily maximum temperatures and morbidity data in the form of unscheduled hospitalizations from 1999 to 2009, 19 heat waves spanning 3–15 days in duration that had a significant impact on health were identified. On average, hospital admissions were found to increase by 7% on the peak heat-wave day, with a significant impact seen for several disease categories, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dehydration, acute renal failure, heat illness, and mental health. Statewide, there were 11 000 excess hospitalizations that were due to extreme heat over the period, yet the majority of impactful events were not accompanied by a heat advisory or warning from the National Weather Service. On a regional basis, the strongest health impacts are seen in the Central Valley and the north and south coasts. The north coast contributes disproportionately to the statewide health impact during heat waves, with a 10.5% increase in daily morbidity at heat-wave peak as compared with 8.1% for the Central Valley and 5.6% for the south coast. The temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by subregion and timing within the season. These results suggest that heat-warning criteria should consider local percentile thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatological conditions as well as the seasonal timing of a forecast heat wave.

Abstract P069: Heat, Heat Waves and Hospital Admissions in Indianapolis, Indiana

Circulation ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Apparent Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Background: The association between heat and hospital admissions is well studied, but in Indiana where the regulatory agencies cites lack of evidence for global climate change, local evidence of such an association is critical for Indiana to mitigate the impact of increasing heat. Methods: Using a distributed-lag non-linear model, we studied the effects of moderate (31.7 °C or 90 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)), severe (33.5 °C or 95 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)) and extreme (36.4 °C or 99 th percentile of AT) heat on hospital admissions (June-August 2007-2012) for cardiovascular (myocardial infarction, myocardial infarction, heart failure) and heat-related diseases in Indianapolis, Indiana located in Marion County. We also examined the added effects of moderate heat waves (AT above the 90 th percentile lasting 2-6 days), severe heat waves (AT above the 95 th percentile lasting 2-6 days) and extreme heat waves (AT above the 99 th percentile lasting 2-6 days). In sensitivity analysis, we tested robustness of our results to 1) different temperature and lag structures and 2) temperature metrics (daily min, max and diurnal temperature range). Results: The relative risks of moderate heat, relative to 29.2°C (75 th percentile of AT), on admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and heat-related diseases (HD) were 0.98 (0.67, 1.44), 6.28 (1.48, 26.6), 1.38 (0.81, 2.36) and 1.73 (0.58, 5.11). The relative risk of severe heat on admissions for CVD, MI, HF, and HD were 0.93 (0.60, 1.43), 4.46 (0.85, 23.4), 1.30 (0.72, 2.34) and 2.14 (0.43, 10.7). The relative risk of extreme heat were 0.79 (0.26, 2.39), 0.11 (0.087, 1.32), 0.68 (0.18, 2.61), and 0.32 (0.005, 19.5). We also observed statistically significant added effects of moderate heat waves lasting 4 or 6 days on hospital admission for MI and HD and extreme heat waves lasting 4 days on hospital admissions for HD. Results were strengthened for people older than 65. Conclusions: Moderate heat wave lasting 4-6 days were associated with increased hospital admissions for MI and HD diseases and extreme heat wave lasting 4 days were associated with increased admissions for HD.

Characterizing hydro-meteorological extremes from a societal perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Bogdanovich ◽  
Lars Guenther ◽  
Markus Reichstein ◽  
Georg Ruhrmann ◽  
René Orth
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Apparent Temperature ◽  
Temperature Threshold ◽  
Temperature Thresholds ◽  
The Impact

<p>Extreme hydro-meteorological events often affect the economy, social life, health, and well-being. One indicator for the impact of extreme events on society is the concurrently increased societal attention. Such increases can help to measure and understand the vulnerability of the society to extreme events, and to evaluate the relevance of an event, which is important for disaster research and risk management. In this study, we analyzed and characterized hydro-meteorological extreme events from a societal impact perspective. In particular, we investigated the impact of heat waves on societal attention in European countries with contrasting climate (Germany, Spain, and Sweden) using Google trends data during 2010–2019. Thus, we seek to answer two general research questions: (i) how and when do extreme events trigger societal attention, (ii) are there temperature thresholds at which societal attention increases? </p><p>To describe heat waves, we used maximum, minimum, average, and apparent temperature, aggregated to a weekly time scale. We analyzed the relationship between temperature and societal attention using piecewise regression to identify potential temperature-related thresholds in societal attention. The threshold is determined as the breaking point between two linear models fitted to data. We determined the corresponding goodness of fit by computing R<sup>2</sup> for each temperature variable. The variable with the highest R<sup>2</sup> is considered as the most influential one.</p><p>The overall relationship between temperature and Google attention to heat waves is significant in all countries and reveals clear temperature thresholds. The variable with the highest explanatory power is the weekly average of the daily maximum temperatures, which accounts for 71% of google attention in Germany, 51 % in Sweden, and 38 % in Spain. For Germany, similar results are found with media attention. In Sweden, with its colder climate, a lower temperature threshold is identified, indicating higher heat vulnerability. No significant impact of temperatures from the previous weeks is found. While further work is needed to improve the understanding of the attention-heat coupling, the demonstrated significant societal attention response to heat waves offers the opportunity to characterize heat waves from an impact perspective using the identified temperature variables, time scales, and thresholds.</p>

scholarly journals Compound Droughts and Heat Waves in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Ye ◽  
Ke Shi ◽  
Zhuohang Xin ◽  
Chao Wang ◽  
Chi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
North China ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Central China ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
The Impact

Droughts and heat waves both are natural extreme climate events occurring in most parts of the world. To understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of droughts and heat waves in China, we examine changes in droughts, heat waves, and the compound of both during 1961–2017 based on high resolution gridded monthly sc_PDSI and daily temperature data. Results show that North China and Northwest China are the two regions that experience the most frequent droughts, while Central China is the least drought-affected region. Significant drought decreasing trends were mostly observed Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet provinces, while the belt region between Yunnan and Heilongjiang provinces experienced significant drought increasing trends. Heat waves occur more frequently than droughts, and the increase of heat wave occurrence is also more obvious. The increasing of heat wave occurrence since the 2000s has been unprecedented. The compound droughts and heat waves were mild from the 1960s to 1980s, and began to increase in 1990s. Furthermore, the significant increasing trends of the percentage of compound droughts and heat waves to droughts are observed in entire China, and more than 90% drought occurrences are accompanied by one or more heat waves in the 2010s. The results highlight the increased percentage of compound droughts and heat waves and call for improved efforts on assessing the impact of compound extremes, especially in an era of changing climate.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Impacts on Inland Waterways Transport of Yangtze River

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijun Liu ◽  
Yuanqiao Wen ◽  
Youjia Liang ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Tiantian Yang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Inland Waterways ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave > heavy rainfall > wind gust > cold spell > storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.

scholarly journals Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 3169-3207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Pavel Ya. Groisman
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Warming World

Abstract This article reviews the understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5). Key new results are 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave); 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST; and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in the understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

Forecasting climate extremes to aid decisions on multi-week timescales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine de Burgh-Day ◽  
Debbie Hudson ◽  
Oscar Alves ◽  
Morwenna Griffiths ◽  
Andrew Marshall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Defensive Responses ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

<p>Extreme events such as droughts, heat waves and floods can have significant and long lasting financial, infrastructural and environmental impacts. While probabilistic seasonal outlooks are commonplace, there are relatively few probabilistic outlooks available on multiweek timescales. Additionally, many services focus on the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes – e.g., forecasts of probability of above or below median, or probability of mean conditions exceeding some threshold. These do not encompass the types of extreme events that can be the most damaging, such as several consecutive days of extreme heat, unusually large numbers of cold days in a season, or an extended period where rainfall is in the lowest decile of historical years.</p><p>Advance warning of extreme events that impact particular industries enable managers to put in place response measures which can help to reduce their losses. This can involve:</p><ul><li>Active responses which aim to reduce the severity of the impact. For example, losses in dairy production due to extreme heat can be mitigated by adjusting grazing rotations such that cows are in shadier paddocks during these events</li> <li>Defensive responses which aim to account for any losses incurred due to an event. For example, the purchase of new farm equipment can be deferred if a forecast extreme event indicates a likely unavoidable financial loss in the near future</li> </ul><p>To meet this need, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is developing a suite of forecast products communicating risk of extreme events using data from the Bureau’s new seasonal forecasting system ACCESS-S. Each prototype forecast product is trialed with external users through a webpage to assess usefulness and popularity.</p>

scholarly journals Seagrass Recovery Following Marine Heat Wave Influences Sediment Carbon Stocks

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lillian R. Aoki ◽  
Karen J. McGlathery ◽  
Patricia L. Wiberg ◽  
Matthew P. J. Oreska ◽  
Amelie C. Berger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Shoot Density ◽  
Seagrass Meadows ◽  
C Stocks ◽  
Sediment Carbon ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Marine Heat Wave

Worldwide, seagrass meadows accumulate significant stocks of organic carbon (C), known as “blue” carbon, which can remain buried for decades to centuries. However, when seagrass meadows are disturbed, these C stocks may be remineralized, leading to significant CO2 emissions. Increasing ocean temperatures, and increasing frequency and severity of heat waves, threaten seagrass meadows and their sediment blue C. To date, no study has directly measured the impact of seagrass declines from high temperatures on sediment C stocks. Here, we use a long-term record of sediment C stocks from a 7-km2, restored eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadow to show that seagrass dieback following a single marine heat wave (MHW) led to significant losses of sediment C. Patterns of sediment C loss and re-accumulation lagged patterns of seagrass recovery. Sediment C losses were concentrated within the central area of the meadow, where sites experienced extreme shoot density declines of 90% during the MHW and net losses of 20% of sediment C over the following 3 years. However, this effect was not uniform; outer meadow sites showed little evidence of shoot declines during the MHW and had net increases of 60% of sediment C over the following 3 years. Overall, sites with higher seagrass recovery maintained 1.7x as much C compared to sites with lower recovery. Our study demonstrates that while seagrass blue C is vulnerable to MHWs, localization of seagrass loss can prevent meadow-wide C losses. Long-term (decadal and beyond) stability of seagrass blue C depends on seagrass resilience to short-term disturbance events.

scholarly journals The impact of the 2003 heat wave on daily mortality in England and Wales and the use of rapid weekly mortality estimates

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 15-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Johnson ◽  
S Kovats ◽  
G McGregor ◽  
J Stedman ◽  
M Gibbs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mortality Estimates

This paper describes a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in England and Wales, and compares this with rapid estimates based on the Office for National Statistics routine weekly deaths reporting system. Daily mortality data for 4 to 13 August 2003, when temperatures were much hotter than normally seen in England, were compared with averages for the same period in years 1998 to 2002. The August 2003 heat wave was associated with a large short-term increase in mortality, particularly in London. Ozone and particulate matter concentrations were also elevated during the heat wave. Overall, there were 2139 (16%) excess deaths in England and Wales. Worst affected were people over the age of 75 years. The impact was greatest in the London region where deaths in those over the age of 75 increased by 59%. Estimated excess mortality was greater than for other recent heat waves in the United Kingdom. The estimated number of deaths registered each week is reported by the Office for National Statistics. The first clear indication of a substantial increase in deaths was published on 21 August 2003. This provided a quick first estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the heat wave and reflected the pattern of daily deaths in relation to the hottest days, but underestimated the excess when compared with the later analysis.

scholarly journals An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 2285-2298 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Stegehuis ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
A. J. Teuling ◽  
D. G. Miralles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface scheme, with the goal of detecting the most sensitive physics and identifying those that appear most suitable for simulating the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. In total, 55 out of 216 simulations combining different atmospheric physical schemes have a temperature bias smaller than 1 °C during the heat wave episodes, the majority of simulations showing a cold bias of on average 2–3 °C. Conversely, precipitation is mostly overestimated prior to heat waves, and shortwave radiation is slightly overestimated. Convection is found to be the most sensitive atmospheric physical process impacting simulated heat wave temperature across four different convection schemes in the simulation ensemble. Based on these comparisons, we design a reduced ensemble of five well performing and diverse scheme configurations, which may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change during summer in Europe.

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