Understanding changes in tropical circulations in a future warmer climate using a cloud-resolving model and a conceptual model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sramana Neogi ◽  
Martin Singh
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Thermodynamic Structure ◽  
Reference Profile ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Vertical Velocity Profile

<p>The interaction between large-scale tropical circulations and moist convection has been the focus of a number of studies. However, projections of how the large-scale tropical circulation may change under global warming remain uncertain because our understanding of this interaction is still limited.</p><p>Here, we use a cloud-resolving model (CRM) coupled with a supra-domain scale (SDS) parameterisation of the large-scale circulation to investigate how tropical circulations driven by sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients change in a future warmer climate. Two popular SDS parameterisation schemes are compared; the weak temperature gradient approximation and the damped-gravity-wave approximation. In both cases, the large-scale vertical velocity is related to the deviation of the simulated density profile from a reference profile taken from the same model run to radiative-convective equilibrium.</p><p>We examine how the large-scale vertical velocity profile varies with surface temperature for fixed background profile (relative SST) as well as how it varies with the surface temperature of the reference profile (background SST). The domain mean vertical velocity appears to be very top-heavy with the maximum vertical velocity becoming stronger at warmer surface temperatures. The results are understood using a simple model for the thermodynamic structure of a convecting atmosphere based on an entraining plume. The model uses a fixed entrainment rate and the relative humidity from the cloud-resolving model to predict a temperature profile. The vertical velocities calculated from these predicted temperature profiles is similar to the vertical velocity structures and their behaviour in a warmer climate that we see in the CRM simulations. The results provide insight into large scale vertical velocity structures simulated by SDS parameterisation schemes, providing a stepping stone to understanding the factors driving changes to the large-scale tropical circulation in a future warmer climate.</p>

scholarly journals Exploring Stratocumulus Cloud-Top Entrainment Processes and Parameterizations by Using Doppler Cloud Radar Observations

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 729-742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce Albrecht ◽  
Ming Fang ◽  
Virendra Ghate
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Dissipation Rate ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Derivative ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Cloud Radar ◽  
Velocity Variance ◽  
Entrainment Zone

Abstract Observations made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during uniform nonprecipitating stratocumulus cloud conditions for a 14-h period are used to examine cloud-top entrainment processes and parameterizations. The observations from a vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar provide estimates of vertical velocity variance and energy dissipation rate (EDR) terms in the parameterized turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget of the entrainment zone. Hourly averages of the vertical velocity variance term in the TKE entrainment formulation correlated strongly (r = 0.72) with the dissipation rate term in the entrainment zone, with an increased correlation (r = 0.92) when accounting for the nighttime decoupling of the boundary layer. Independent estimates of entrainment rates were obtained from an inversion-height budget using the local time derivative and horizontal advection of cloud-top height together with large-scale vertical velocity at the boundary layer inversion from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis model. The mean entrainment rate from the inversion-height budget during the 14-h period was 0.74 ± 0.15 cm s−1 and was used to calculate bulk coefficients for entrainment parameterizations based on convective velocity scale w* and TKE budgets of the entrainment zone. The hourly values of entrainment rates calculated using these coefficients exhibited good agreement with those calculated from the inversion-height budget associated with substantial changes in surface buoyancy production and cloud-top radiative cooling. The results indicate a strong potential for making entrainment rate estimates directly from radar vertical velocity variance and the EDR measurements.

scholarly journals Analysis of Atmospheric Energy Transport in ERA-40 and Implications for Simple Models of the Mean Tropical Circulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 5229-5241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Peters ◽  
Zhiming Kuang ◽  
Christopher C. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Vertical Profile ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Atmospheric Energy Transport ◽  
Convergence Zones ◽  
Mean Circulation

Abstract An analysis of atmospheric energy transport in 22 years (1980–2001) of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is presented. In the analyzed budgets, there is a large cancellation between divergences of dry static and latent energy such that the total energy divergence is positive over all tropical oceanic regions except for the east Pacific cold tongue, consistent with previous studies. The west Pacific and Indian Oceans are characterized by a balance between diabatic sources and mean advective energy export, with a small eddy contribution. However, in the central and eastern Pacific convergence zone, total energy convergence by the mean circulation is balanced by submonthly eddies, with a small diabatic source. Decomposing the mean advective tendency into terms due to horizontal and vertical advection shows that the spatial variation in the mean advection is due largely to variations in vertical advection; these variations are further attributed to variations in the vertical profile of the vertical velocity. The eddy energy export, due almost exclusively to eddy moisture export, does not exhibit any significant seasonal variation. The relationship between the eddies and the mean circulation is examined. Large-scale moisture diffusion is correlated with eddy moisture export on (500 km)2 spatial scales, implying that eddy activity preferentially dries narrow convergence zones over wide ones. Eddy moisture export is further linked to the depth of mean convection in large-scale convergence zones with larger eddy export associated with shallower circulations. This suggests a mechanism that could contribute to the observed variation in mean divergence profiles across the northern tropical Pacific whereby sea surface temperature gradients set the width of convergence zones and eddy activity modulates the tropospheric relative humidity and divergence profile. The importance of variations in the vertical profile of the vertical velocity and eddies in closing the energy budget implies that simple models of the mean tropical circulation should include these effects.

scholarly journals Estimating the Shallow Convective Mass Flux from the Subcloud-Layer Mass Budget

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (5) ◽  
pp. 1559-1574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphaela Vogel ◽  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Mass Flux ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
Convective Mixing ◽  
Convective Mass Flux

Abstract This paper develops a method to estimate the shallow-convective mass flux M at the top of the subcloud layer as a residual of the subcloud-layer mass budget. The ability of the mass-budget estimate to reproduce the mass flux diagnosed directly from the cloud-core area fraction and vertical velocity is tested using real-case large-eddy simulations over the tropical Atlantic. We find that M reproduces well the magnitude, diurnal cycle, and day-to-day variability of the core-sampled mass flux, with an average root-mean-square error of less than 30% of the mean. The average M across the four winter days analyzed is 12 mm s−1, where the entrainment rate E contributes on average 14 mm s−1 and the large-scale vertical velocity W contributes −2 mm s−1. We find that day-to-day variations in M are mostly explained by variations in W, whereas E is very similar among the different days analyzed. Instead E exhibits a pronounced diurnal cycle, with a minimum of about 10 mm s−1 around sunset and a maximum of about 18 mm s−1 around sunrise. Application of the method to dropsonde data from an airborne field campaign in August 2016 yields the first measurements of the mass flux derived from the mass budget, and supports the result that the variability in M is mostly due to the variability in W. Our analyses thus suggest a strong coupling between the day-to-day variability in shallow convective mixing (as measured by M) and the large-scale circulation (as measured by W). Application of the method to the EUREC4A field campaign will help evaluate this coupling, and assess its implications for cloud-base cloudiness.

scholarly journals Nonlinear Shear Effects of the Secondary Current in the 2D Flow Analysis in Meandering Channels with Sharp Curvature

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1486
Author(s):  
Jaehyun Shin ◽  
Il-Won Seo
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Profile ◽  
Secondary Flow ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Shear Effect ◽  
Meandering Channel ◽  
Meandering Channels ◽  
Vertical Velocity Profile ◽  
Shear Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Shear

In order to analyze the shear effect of secondary currents on the flow structures in a meandering channel, this research developed a two-dimensional shallow water model, which included the dispersion stress term accounting for the shear effect in the vertical velocity profile. A new equation for the vertical velocity profile that included nonlinear shear effects was derived from the equation of motion in the meandering channel with sharp curvature. Using the experiment data obtained from large-scale meandering channels, the ratio of the depth over the radius-of-curvature was incorporated into the shear intensity of the secondary flow in the proposed equation. Comparisons with the experimental results by Rozovskii (1957) showed that the computed values of the primary velocity distribution by the proposed model showed better fit with the observed data than the simulations with linear models and models without secondary flow consideration. The simulated results in the large-scale meandering channels demonstrated that simulations with the nonlinear secondary flow effect added into modeling gave higher accuracy, reducing the relative error by 19% in reproducing the skewed distributions of the primary flow in meandering channels, particularly in the regions where the effects from spiral motion were strong, due to sharp meanders.

scholarly journals Weakly Forced Mock Walker Cells

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (9) ◽  
pp. 2759-2786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiming Kuang
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Profile ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Momentum Balance ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Vertical Velocity Profile ◽  
Horizontal Momentum ◽  
Vertical Scales

Abstract Mock Walker cells driven by weak sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are studied using planetary-scale cloud system–resolving simulations and a simplified framework that represents convection with its linear response functions and parameterizes the large-scale flow based on the gravity wave equation. For sinusoidal SST forcings of the same amplitude, as the horizontal domain size increases, the mock Walker cells strengthen substantially and shorter vertical scales in the vertical velocity profile diminish. This is explained by the fact that temperature anomalies required to sustain a vertical velocity profile of given amplitude are stronger in cases of larger horizontal and smaller vertical scales. Such temperature anomalies become significant at planetary scales so that properly accounting for the horizontal momentum balance, including convective momentum transport (CMT), becomes necessary, while a weak temperature gradient approach that neglects horizontal momentum balance is no longer adequate. The downward advection component of the CMT in particular is important for capturing a number of features of the mock Walker cells. The extent of convective organization also affects the mock Walker cell through its effects on the sensitivities of convective heating and moistening to temperature and moisture anomalies. For strongly organized convection with deep inflows, these sensitivities are consistent with a layer mode of convective overturning, instead of the parcel mode as in unorganized convection, resulting in a weaker second baroclinic component in the mock Walker cells.

scholarly journals Numerical Tests of the Weak Pressure Gradient Approximation

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (9) ◽  
pp. 2846-2856 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Romps
Keyword(s):  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Velocity Profiles ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Positive Time ◽  
Weak Pressure Gradient ◽  
Negative Buoyancy

Abstract Cloud-resolving simulations of convection over a surface temperature hot spot are used to evaluate the weak pressure gradient (WPG) and weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximations. The premise of the relaxed form of WTG—that vertical velocity is equal to buoyancy times a positive time scale—is found to be violated by thick layers of negative buoyancy in steady-state ascent. The premise of WPG—that horizontal divergence and pressure anomalies are collocated—is validated by these simulations. When implemented in a cloud-resolving model, WPG replicates buoyancy transients exceptionally well, including the adiabatic lifting of air below buoyancy anomalies. WTG captures neither this effect nor the associated triggering of moist convection. For steady states, WTG produces vertical velocity profiles that are too top heavy. On the other hand, WPG generates velocity profiles that closely match fully resolved hot-spot simulations. Taken together, the evidence suggests that WPG is a relatively accurate method for parameterizing supradomain-scale (SDS) dynamics.

scholarly journals Relating Convection to GCM Grid-Scale Fields Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during MC3E Field Experiment

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Cheng ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Moisture Convergence ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model

In this study, a WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used as a cloud-resolving model to simulate a squall line observed on 20 May 2011 in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States. The model output is then used to examine the relationships between convective precipitation and coarse-grained variables averaged over a range of subdomain sizes equivalent to various global climate model horizontal resolutions. The objective is to determine to what extent convection within the subdomains can be related to these “large-scale” variables, thus that they can potentially serve as closure in convective parameterization. Results show that convective precipitation is well correlated with the vertical velocity at 500 hPa, column integrated moisture convergence and CAPE change due to large-scale advective forcing (dCAPE) for various subdomain sizes, but the correlation decreases with decreasing subdomain size. dCAPE leads convective precipitation for all subdomain sizes examined; however, the lead time decreases with decreasing subdomain size. Moisture convergence leads convective precipitation for subdomain sizes greater than 32 km but has no lead time for smaller subdomain sizes. Mid-tropospheric vertical velocity has no lead time or slightly lags convective precipitation. The lead/lag composite analysis with respect to maximum precipitation time indicates that peaks of large-scale variables increase with decreasing subdomain size. The peaks of 500 hPa vertical velocity and column integrated moisture convergence occur at the same time as maximum precipitation, but maximum dCAPE leads maximum precipitation by twelve minutes.

Midlatitude Cloud Radiative Effect Sensitivity to Cloud Controlling Factors in Observations and Models: Relationship with Southern Hemisphere Jet Shifts and Climate Sensitivity

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
Mitchell K. Kelleher
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Controlling Factors ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Advection

AbstractAn effective method to understand cloud processes and to assess the fidelity with which they are represented in climate models is the cloud controlling factor framework, in which cloud properties are linked with variations in large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical variables. This study examines how midlatitude cloud radiative effects (CRE) over oceans co-vary with four cloud controlling factors: mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, estimated inversion strength (EIS), near-surface temperature advection, and sea surface temperature (SST), and assesses their representation in CMIP6 models with respect to observations and CMIP5 models.CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude CRE to perturbations in vertical velocity, and underestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude shortwave CRE to perturbations in EIS and temperature advection. The largest improvement in CMIP6 models is a reduced sensitivity of CRE to vertical velocity perturbations. As in CMIP5 models, many CMIP6 models simulate a shortwave cloud radiative warming effect associated with a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet stream, an effect not present in observations. This bias arises because most models’ shortwave CRE are too sensitive to vertical velocity perturbations and not sensitive enough to EIS perturbations, and because most models overestimate the SST anomalies associated with SH jet shifts. The presence of this bias directly impacts the transient surface temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases over the Southern Ocean, but not the global-mean surface temperature. Instead, the models’ climate sensitivity is correlated with their shortwave CRE sensitivity to surface temperature advection perturbations near 40°S, with models with more realistic values of temperature advection sensitivity generally having higher climate sensitivity.

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