Can Machine Learning help us in [re]assessing historical earthquakes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María del Puy Papí Isaba ◽  
Christa Hammerl ◽  
Maurizio Mattesini ◽  
Vicenta María Elisa Buforn Peiró
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Hydro Power ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Focal Parameters ◽  
First Time

<p>Tyrol is one of the provinces with the highest seismicity in Austria. Most of the stronger historical earthquakes occurred around Innsbruck and Hall in Tirol (1572, 1670, 1689).</p><p>Within the framework of the project[1] “Historical and recent earthquake activity in Tyrol - sources, data, seismological analysis”, a study was carried out from 2014-2020, which mainly deals with historical earthquakes in Tyrol up to 1900 but also in detail with damaging earthquakes in Tyrol in the 20th century. The project’s purpose was to create a new earthquake catalog for Tyrol, which for the first time also includes Macroseismic/Intensity Data Points (M/IDPs).</p><p>An essential aspect of this study is that the sources and literature references used for all Tyrolean earthquakes up to 1900 are largely documented. Furthermore, selected damaging earthquakes of the 20th century are reported in detail. Numerous Tyrolean archives, such as the Tyrolean Provincial Archives, and the City Archives of Hall in Tyrol, were searched for contemporary earthquake sources. Likewise, the seismic archive of the Austrian Seismological Service at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik) contains a wealth of valuable recent information, such as the questionnaires on earthquakes of the entire 20th century.</p><p>The very time-consuming research and documentation are followed by the conversion of the written information into earthquake parameters. Briefly outlined, this comprises the following working steps: Interpretation of the sources, assignment of geographical coordinates to the pieces of evidence, evaluation of the intensity according to the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98), (re)calculation of the focal parameters of all damaging earthquakes and numerous newly found earthquakes.</p><p>The latter is the content of this presentation, namely to (re-)evaluate the focal parameters for historical and recent earthquakes in Tyrol for the first time using the intensity prediction equations (IPE) with the Grid Search (GS) technique. GS has been widely used in many Machine Learning types of research when it comes to hyperparameter optimization, which in this study corresponds to the earthquake focal parameters.</p><p>We used IDPs whose intensities were mostly assessed from contemporary historical sources, such as annals, chronicles, questionnaires, newspapers, etc.</p><p>A total of 1750 M/IDPs for 35 damaging earthquakes from the Austrian Earthquake Catalogue (AEC2020) could be determined based on the historical sources. The focal parameters for these earthquakes were reevaluated by means of the IPE and GS. </p><p>Likewise, 726 new M/IDPs from a total of 154 non-damaging earthquakes not yet included in the AEC2020 were determined. For 38 of them, it was possible to calculate new sets of focal parameters.</p><p>Problems encountered, accuracy, and error of the results will be introduced in the presentation. </p><p><br><br><br></p><p> </p><div><span>[1]The project was funded by TIWAG-Tiroler Wasserkraft AG, ASFINAG Alpenstraße GmbH, Fachgruppe der Seilbahnen Tirol, Verbund Hydro Power GmbH, Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung - Abteilung Allgemeine Bauangelegenheiten, Landesgeologi, ÖBB Infrastruktur AG and ZAMG.</span></div>

Historical Sources for Earthquakes before 1900 on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Offshore Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2487-2496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustín Udías ◽  
Elisa Buforn ◽  
José Manuel Martínez-Solares ◽  
Carlos Sousa Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Lisbon Earthquake ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Focal Parameters ◽  
The Many ◽  
Regional Histories

Abstract Information about historical earthquakes in the Iberian Peninsula going back to Antiquity (Roman times) can be found in different types of documents, such as unpublished contemporary manuscripts preserved in archives, general, and regional histories in Spain and Portugal, published documents and reports on the damage of specific earthquakes, and reports in newspapers and magazines. The 1755 Lisbon earthquake marks an important point for the study of historical earthquakes in the peninsula. The compilation and interpretation of historical data presents many problems, one of which is how to express the many uncertainties in the focal parameters of historical earthquakes in earthquake catalogs.

scholarly journals TO THE ORIGINS OF MUSEUM SCIENCE IN ALTAI CITY OF BIYSK (LATE 19TH TO EARLY 20TH CENTURY)

2020 ◽  
pp. 252-260
Author(s):  
Ivan A. Golev ◽  
◽  
Nadezhda M. Dmitrienko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Great Success ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Cultural Center ◽  
Rural Teachers ◽  
Sociocultural Development ◽  
History Of ◽  
First Time

This article is devoted to the unexplored issue of the birth of museum science in the small pro-vincial town of Biysk in southern Siberia. Reliance on historical sources, many of which are intro-duced into scientific circulation for the first time, allows the authors to carry out a historical recon-struction of the sociocultural development of Biysk in the second half of 19th – early 20th century. The article reports on the increasing role of the city bourgeoisie and intellectuals in the life of Biysk, shows the charity of merchants Kotelnikov, Vasenev, Assanov, Sychev, Morozov. The authors emphasize donations of Biysk townspeople to the museums of Imperial Tomsk University. They reveal the role of G.N. Potanin who involved some residents of Biysk in studying of the southern part of Altai and Mon-golia, in collecting and descripting of natural and historical memorials. All these events are considered as the most important prerequisites for the origin of the museum science in Biysk. Then the article shows that the first idea of establishing Biysk museum was expressed in 1886. However, it was not possible to implement it. New attempts to open the museum were made in 1911. There were the funds of the merchant Kopylov, who wanted to use them for the sake of culture and education. They also failed. Only the events of the Revolution of 1917 allowed starting works on the creation of the museum. Now it is known about People's University opened in Biysk in 1918 and the museum, which was created under it. The purpose of the museum was educating of townspeople. The first head of Biysk museum was A.A. Khrebtov, a graduate of Riga Polytechnic Institute. He managed to attract knowledgeable people, who conducted expeditions and delivered collections of minerals, archaeology and ethnography to the museum. From the first days of opening rural teachers, employees of the county land (zemstvo) and others visited the museum. The museum became a center of educa-tional work in Biysk and its county. The Society of Nature Lovers was based on People's University and its museum. Members of this society turned to the study of the nature and history of Biysk district. The representative of the department of out-of-school education V.V. Belyanin planned to create a network of museums of the Biysk district. The authors point out that in the future he became a well-known Soviet writer V.V. Bianchi. The article shows that the museum funds, created in 1918–1919, were used as the basis of Biysk Soviet People's Museum. It was opened in April 1920 by section on organization of museums in Biysk district, established in the department of public education of Biysk district revolutionary committee. The authors of the article express their opinion that the preparatory period, which lasted 44 years, had finished with great success. Scientific and cultural center was created in the southern part of Altai, and it still works today as the Biysk Regional Museum named after V.V. Bianchi.

A Regionalized Seismicity Model for Subduction Zones Based on Geodetic Strain Rates, Geomechanical Parameters, and Earthquake‐Catalog Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (5) ◽  
pp. 2036-2049 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Antonio Bayona Viveros ◽  
Sebastian von Specht ◽  
Anne Strader ◽  
Sebastian Hainzl ◽  
Fabrice Cotton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Strain Rates ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Geodetic Strain

Abstract The Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high‐resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long‐term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3. We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake‐rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces. Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction‐zone seismicity.

scholarly journals Documentary Films on the Ethnic Studies of the Ainu People in the Collections of Sakhalin Museums and Archives

2021 ◽  
pp. 24-33
Author(s):  
Ivan Golovnev
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Ethnic Studies ◽  
Scientific Discourse ◽  
Documentary Films ◽  
Scientific Interest ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
First Time

The article is based on visual-anthropological materials from the Sakhalin archives and museums collected by the author during his expedition undertaken in June–August 2019. In addition to the general review of the filmography with respect to the Ainu ethnic studies of the first half of the 20th century, this study is focused on two major documentary films: “Traditional Life and Rites of the Ainu people” (Japan, 1920) and “Across Sakhalin” (USSR, 1948). These films, being unique records of material and spiritual culture of the Ainu people living on Hokkaido and Sakhalin, who were earlier an authentic ethnic group, but currently assimilated into the Japanese environment, are introduced into the scientific discourse for the first time. The cinematic works are analyzed in the historical and anthropological context against the study results of the scholars studying the Ainu people. The paper provides a conclusion about the archival films being multi-layered documentary films of their time that upon proper scholarly criticism can be valuable historical sources of scientific interest with respect to a wide range of humanitarian studies.

Private letters of Siberian exiles about the ‘Turukhansk revolt’: 1908–1912

2018 ◽  
pp. 508-521
Author(s):  
Dmitrii A. Baksht ◽  
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Police Department ◽  
General System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Russian Revolution ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Revolutionary Movement ◽  
State Management ◽  
Management Institutions

The article studies the Turukhansk region as a territory with distinct climatic conditions and, consequently, with distinctive state management institutions and does so in the context of modernization processes of late 19th – early 20th century. This part of the Yenisei gubernia having become a region of mass exile after the First Russian Revolution of 1905–1907, its integration into a general system of management slowed down. Private letters of exiles are an important historical source, they reveal many aspects of the daily life of the persons under supervising in the inter-revolutionary period. The ‘Turukhansk revolt’ in the winter of 1908/09 revealed not only the ineffectiveness of exile as a penal measure, but also severel major problems of the region: archaic and scanty management institutions, lack of transport communication with southern uezds of the gubernia, underpopulation, and also gubernia and metropolitan officials’ ignorance of local affairs. The agencies of the Police Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs expanded the practice of perlustration as involvement in the revolutionary movement grew. Siberian exiles had their correspondence routinely inspected, and yet in most cases they were inexperienced enough not to encrypt their messages. Surviving perlustration materials offer an ambivalent picture of the ‘Turukhansk revolt’: there were both approval and condemnation of the participants’ actions. The documents tell a tale of extreme cruelty of the punitive detachments even towards those who were not involved in the resistance. The subject of the Siberian exile of the early 20th century has research potential. There is virtually no scholarship on the exiles’ self-reflection concerning the ‘common violence’ of both anti-governmental groups and state punitive agencies. Diversification in political/party or social/class affiliation is not enough. The new materials have revealed a significant gap between several ‘streams’ of exiles: those banished to Siberia in midst of the First Russian Revolution differed from those exiled in 1910s. The article concludes that, having departed from the previous approach to studying the exile, ego-sources cease to be of lesser importance than other types of historical sources. Their subjectivity becomes an advantage for a high-quality text analysis.

scholarly journals Catalogue of the primatological collection of the Torino University

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mara Calvini ◽  
Maria Stella Siori ◽  
Spartaco Gippoliti ◽  
Marco Pavia
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Great Part ◽  
Type Specimen ◽  
Zoological Garden ◽  
Historical Material ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
First Time

The revised catalogue of primatological material stored in the Museo Regionale di Scienze Naturali of Torino and in the Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi of the Università degli Studi di Torino and belonging to the historical material of the Torino University is introduced. The material, 494 specimens belonging to 399 individuals of 122 taxa, is of particular importance since specimens were mainly obtained during the 19th Century and the beginning of the 20th Century. A relevant part of the collection was created by the collaborators of the Museum, among which it is worth to mention F. De Filippi, A. Borelli and E. Festa, while other material came from purchases and donations from private people or the Royal Zoological Garden of Torino. Great part of the specimens is stuffed but also the osteological materials are of particular importance, as many of them derived from the specimens before being prepared and consisting of skulls or more or less complete skeletons. After this revision, the Lectotype and Paralectotypes of <em>Alouatta</em> <em>palliata</em> <em>aequatorialis</em> have been selected, and the type-specimen of the <em>brunnea</em> variety of <em>Cebus</em> <em>albifrons</em> <em>cuscinus</em> has been recognized. In addition, some specimens of particular historical-scientific importance have also been identified and here presented for the first time.

scholarly journals Digital Graphic Documentation and Architectural Heritage: Deformations in a 16th-Century Ceiling of the Pinelo Palace in Seville (Spain)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Juan Reinoso-Gordo ◽  
Antonio Gámiz-Gordo ◽  
Pedro Barrero-Ortega
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Digital Image ◽  
Digital Images ◽  
Laser Scanner ◽  
16Th Century ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Architectural Heritage ◽  
Digital Documentation ◽  
First Time

Suitable graphic documentation is essential to ascertain and conserve architectural heritage. For the first time, accurate digital images are provided of a 16th-century wooden ceiling, composed of geometric interlacing patterns, in the Pinelo Palace in Seville. Today, this ceiling suffers from significant deformation. Although there are many publications on the digital documentation of architectural heritage, no graphic studies on this type of deformed ceilings have been presented. This study starts by providing data on the palace history concerning the design of geometric interlacing patterns in carpentry according to the 1633 book by López de Arenas, and on the ceiling consolidation in the 20th century. Images were then obtained using two complementary procedures: from a 3D laser scanner, which offers metric data on deformations; and from photogrammetry, which facilitates the visualisation of details. In this way, this type of heritage is documented in an innovative graphic approach, which is essential for its conservation and/or restoration with scientific foundations and also to disseminate a reliable digital image of the most beautiful ceiling of this Renaissance palace in southern Europe.

scholarly journals Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Pattern Recognition of Synthetical Complete Earthquake Catalog

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4905
Author(s):  
Chen Cao ◽  
Xiangbin Wu ◽  
Lizhi Yang ◽  
Qian Zhang ◽  
Xianying Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Earthquake Migration ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Exploring the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake activity, especially earthquake migration of fault systems, can greatly to understand the basic mechanics of earthquakes and the assessment of earthquake risk. By establishing a three-dimensional strike-slip fault model, to derive the stress response and fault slip along the fault under regional stress conditions. Our study helps to create a long-term, complete earthquake catalog. We modelled Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks for pattern recognition of the synthetical earthquake catalog. The performance of the models was compared using the mean-square error (MSE). Our results showed clearly the application of LSTM showed a meaningful result of 0.08% in the MSE values. Our best model can predict the time and magnitude of the earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Mw = 6.5 with a similar clustering period. These results showed conclusively that applying LSTM in a spatiotemporal series prediction provides a potential application in the study of earthquake mechanics and forecasting of major earthquake events.

scholarly journals Meta-analysis cum machine learning approaches address the structure and biogeochemical potential of marine copepod associated bacteriobiomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Balamurugan Sadaiappan ◽  
Chinnamani PrasannaKumar ◽  
V. Uthara Nambiar ◽  
Mahendran Subramanian ◽  
Manguesh U. Gauns
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Iron Transport ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Zooplankton Community ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
16S Rdna Gene ◽  
Marine Copepod ◽  
Form Of Life ◽  
First Time

AbstractCopepods are the dominant members of the zooplankton community and the most abundant form of life. It is imperative to obtain insights into the copepod-associated bacteriobiomes (CAB) in order to identify specific bacterial taxa associated within a copepod, and to understand how they vary between different copepods. Analysing the potential genes within the CAB may reveal their intrinsic role in biogeochemical cycles. For this, machine-learning models and PICRUSt2 analysis were deployed to analyse 16S rDNA gene sequences (approximately 16 million reads) of CAB belonging to five different copepod genera viz., Acartia spp., Calanus spp., Centropages sp., Pleuromamma spp., and Temora spp.. Overall, we predict 50 sub-OTUs (s-OTUs) (gradient boosting classifiers) to be important in five copepod genera. Among these, 15 s-OTUs were predicted to be important in Calanus spp. and 20 s-OTUs as important in Pleuromamma spp.. Four bacterial s-OTUs Acinetobacter johnsonii, Phaeobacter, Vibrio shilonii and Piscirickettsiaceae were identified as important s-OTUs in Calanus spp., and the s-OTUs Marinobacter, Alteromonas, Desulfovibrio, Limnobacter, Sphingomonas, Methyloversatilis, Enhydrobacter and Coriobacteriaceae were predicted as important s-OTUs in Pleuromamma spp., for the first time. Our meta-analysis revealed that the CAB of Pleuromamma spp. had a high proportion of potential genes responsible for methanogenesis and nitrogen fixation, whereas the CAB of Temora spp. had a high proportion of potential genes involved in assimilatory sulphate reduction, and cyanocobalamin synthesis. The CAB of Pleuromamma spp. and Temora spp. have potential genes accountable for iron transport.

scholarly journals Domain Adaptation Using a Three-Way Decision Improves the Identification of Autism Patients from Multisite fMRI Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 603
Author(s):  
Chunlei Shi ◽  
Xianwei Xin ◽  
Jiacai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Domain Adaptation ◽  
Recognition Accuracy ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Fmri Data ◽  
Target Domain ◽  
Sample Distribution ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
First Time

Machine learning methods are widely used in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis. Due to the lack of labelled ASD data, multisite data are often pooled together to expand the sample size. However, the heterogeneity that exists among different sites leads to the degeneration of machine learning models. Herein, the three-way decision theory was introduced into unsupervised domain adaptation in the first time, and applied to optimize the pseudolabel of the target domain/site from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) features related to ASD patients. The experimental results using multisite fMRI data show that our method not only narrows the gap of the sample distribution among domains but is also superior to the state-of-the-art domain adaptation methods in ASD recognition. Specifically, the ASD recognition accuracy of the proposed method is improved on all the six tasks, by 70.80%, 75.41%, 69.91%, 72.13%, 71.01% and 68.85%, respectively, compared with the existing methods.

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