Stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation under intermediate (MIS3) and full glacial (LGM) conditions and its relationship with Dansgaard-Oeschger climate variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Background Climate ◽  
Millennial Scale

<p>Paleoclimatic records reveal that millennial-scale climate variability during the Pleistocene was most pronounced during intermediate glacial conditions, like Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3), rather than during interglacial and fully glaciated climates, like the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The rapid transitions between cold stadials and warm interstadials recorded in Greenland ice cores during MIS3, referred to as DansgaardeOeschger (D-O) events, have been correlated with millennial-scale climate variations worldwide. Although the origin of D-O events is a matter of controversy, striking evidence shows that<br>variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) were involved.Therefore, understanding the stability properties of the ocean circulation under different background climate conditions is key to understanding D-O millennial-scale climate variability. In the present study,the stability of the AMOC to northern high-latitude freshwater perturbations under MIS3 and LGM boundary conditions is investigated by using the coupled climate model CCSM3. Stability diagrams constructed from a large set of equilibrium experiments reveal a nonlinear dependence of AMOC<br>strength on freshwater forcing under both MIS3 and LGM conditions. The MIS3 baseline state is close to an AMOC stability threshold, which makes the MIS3 climate unstable with respect to minor perturbations. A similar threshold behavior in AMOC stability is observed under LGM conditions; however, larger freshwater perturbations are necessary to pass the threshold and weaken the AMOC. The threshold’s displacement relative to the MIS3 background climate is attributable to differences in the atmospheric hydrologic cycle and North Atlantic sea ice transport. Different atmospheric moisture transports are attributable to thermodynamic and dynamic processes related to differences in greenhouse gas forcing and ice-sheet height between MIS3 and the LGM. We conclude that the higher stability of the AMOCduring the LGM is a physically plausible explanation for millennial-scale D-O-type climate variability being suppressed under full glacial conditions, whereas minor perturbations in freshwater fluxes could<br>have triggered D-O climate shifts during MIS3.</p>

Reduced Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation due to Wind Stress Feedback during Glacial Times

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 6260-6282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Arzel ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
Willem P. Sijp
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A previous study by Mikolajewicz suggested that the wind stress feedback stabilizes the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. This result was obtained under modern climate conditions, for which the presence of the massive continental ice sheets characteristic of glacial times is missing. Here a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model of intermediate complexity, set up in an idealized spherical sector geometry of the Atlantic basin, is used to show that, under glacial climate conditions, wind stress feedback actually reduces the stability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The analysis reveals that the influence of the wind stress feedback on the glacial MOC response to an external source of freshwater applied at high northern latitudes is controlled by the following two distinct processes: 1) the interactions between the wind field and the sea ice export in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and 2) the northward Ekman transport in the tropics and upward Ekman pumping in the core of the NH subpolar gyre. The former dominates the response of the coupled system; it delays the recovery of the MOC, and in some cases even stabilizes collapsed MOC states achieved during the hosing period. The latter plays a minor role and mitigates the impact of the former process by reducing the upper-ocean freshening in deep-water formation regions. Hence, the wind stress feedback delays the recovery of the glacial MOC, which is the opposite of what occurs under modern climate conditions. Close to the critical transition threshold beyond which the circulation collapses, the glacial MOC appears to be very sensitive to changes in surface wind stress forcing and exhibits, in the aftermath of the freshwater pulse, a nonlinear dependence upon the wind stress feedback magnitude: a complete and irreversible MOC shutdown occurs only for intermediate wind stress feedback magnitudes. This behavior results from the competitive effects of processes 1 and 2 on the midlatitude upper-ocean salinity during the shutdown phase of the MOC. The mechanisms presented here may be relevant to the large meltwater pulses that punctuated the last glacial period.

scholarly journals Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Lenton ◽  
V. N. Livina ◽  
V. Dakos ◽  
M. Scheffer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Bifurcation Point ◽  
Younger Dryas ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The Last Deglaciation

Abstract. The last deglaciation was characterised by two abrupt warming events, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying causes are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations. However, the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last ice age were probably triggered by stochastic fluctuations without bifurcation or early warning, and whether the onset of the Bølling-Allerød (DO event 1) was preceded by slowing down or not is debated. Here we show that the interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas, as recorded in three Greenland ice cores with two different climate proxies, was accompanied by a robust slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability, consistent with approaching bifurcation. Prior to the Bølling warming there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The Bølling warming marked a distinct destabilisation of the climate system, which excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. There is some evidence for slowing down in the transition to and during the Younger Dryas. We infer that a bifurcation point was finally approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. The lack of a large triggering perturbation at the end of the Younger Dryas, and the fact that subsequent meltwater perturbations did not cause sustained cooling, support the bifurcation hypothesis.

scholarly journals Response of North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to Atmospheric Weather Regimes

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Barrier ◽  
Christophe Cassou ◽  
Julie Deshayes ◽  
Anne-Marie Treguier
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Wind Stress Curl ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Weather Regimes

Abstract A new framework is proposed for investigating the atmospheric forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation. Instead of using classical modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the east Atlantic pattern, the weather regimes paradigm was used. Using this framework helped avoid problems associated with the assumptions of orthogonality and symmetry that are particular to modal analysis and known to be unsuitable for the NAO. Using ocean-only historical and sensitivity experiments, the impacts of the four winter weather regimes on horizontal and overturning circulations were investigated. The results suggest that the Atlantic Ridge (AR), negative NAO (NAO−), and positive NAO (NAO+) regimes induce a fast (monthly-to-interannual time scales) adjustment of the gyres via topographic Sverdrup dynamics and of the meridional overturning circulation via anomalous Ekman transport. The wind anomalies associated with the Scandinavian blocking regime (SBL) are ineffective in driving a fast wind-driven oceanic adjustment. The response of both gyre and overturning circulations to persistent regime conditions was also estimated. AR causes a strong, wind-driven reduction in the strengths of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, while NAO+ causes a strengthening of the subtropical gyre via wind stress curl anomalies and of the subpolar gyre via heat flux anomalies. NAO− induces a southward shift of the gyres through the southward displacement of the wind stress curl. The SBL is found to impact the subpolar gyre only via anomalous heat fluxes. The overturning circulation is shown to spin up following persistent SBL and NAO+ and to spin down following persistent AR and NAO− conditions. These responses are driven by changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea.

Co-variability of salinity and temperature changes in the North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Levke Caesar ◽  
Gerard McCarthy
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Cold Anomaly ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>While there is increasing paleoclimatic evidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened over the last one to two hundred years (Caesar et al., 2018; Thornalley et al., 2018), this is not confirmed by climate model simulations. Instead, the new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a slight strengthening of the multimodel mean AMOC from 1850 until about 1985 (Menary et al., 2020), attributed to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Arguing for a recent weakening of the AMOC, some studies attribute the emergence of the North Atlantic warming hole as a sign of the reduced meridional heat transport associated with a weaker AMOC (e.g. Caesar et al., 2018), yet this cold anomaly has also been interpreted as being aerosol-forced (Booth et al., 2012) and therefore not necessarily a sign of a weakening AMOC but rather a possible driver of a strengthening of the AMOC.</p><p>Looking beyond temperature, a fresh anomaly has recently emerged in the subpolar North Atlantic (Holliday et al., 2020). While a strengthening AMOC has been linked with an increase in salinity in the subpolar gyre region (Menary et al., 2013), an AMOC weakening would, due to the salt-advection feedback, likely lead to a reduction in salinity in the North Atlantic region. To shed some light on the question of whether the cold anomaly is internally (AMOC) or externally (aerosol-forced) driven we consider the co-variability of salinity and temperature in the North Atlantic in respect of changes in surface fluxes or alternate drivers.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Booth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Halloran, P.R., Andrews, T. and Bellouin, N., 2012. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature, 484(7393): 228–232.</p><p>Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G. and Saba, V., 2018. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature, 556(7700): 191-196.</p><p>Holliday, N.P., Bersch, M., Berx, B., Chafik, L., Cunningham, S., Florindo-López, C., Hátún, H., Johns, W., Josey, S.A., Larsen, K.M.H., Mulet, S., Oltmanns, M., Reverdin, G., Rossby, T., Thierry, V., Valdimarsson, H. and Yashayaev, I., 2020. Ocean circulation causes the largest freshening event for 120 years in eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Nature Communications, 11(1): 585.</p><p>Menary, M.B., Roberts, C.D., Palmer, M.D., Halloran, P.R., Jackson, L., Wood, R.A., Müller, W.A., Matei, D. and Lee, S.-K., 2013. Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(4): 2087-2096.</p><p>Menary, M.B., Robson, J., Allan, R.P., Booth, B.B.B., Cassou, C., Gastineau, G., Gregory, J., Hodson, D., Jones, C., Mignot, J., Ringer, M., Sutton, R., Wilcox, L. and Zhang, R., 2020. Aerosol-Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14): e2020GL088166.</p><p>Thornalley, D.J.R., Oppo, D.W., Ortega, P., Robson, J.I., Brierley, C.M., Davis, R., Hall, I.R., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Rose, N.L., Spooner, P.T., Yashayaev, I. and Keigwin, L.D., 2018. Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature, 556(7700): 227-230.</p>

scholarly journals What climate signal is contained in decadal- to centennial-scale isotope variations from Antarctic ice cores?

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 2053-2070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Münch ◽  
Thomas Laepple
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Relative Magnitude ◽  
True Temperature ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales

Abstract. Ice-core-based records of isotopic composition are a proxy for past temperatures and can thus provide information on polar climate variability over a large range of timescales. However, individual isotope records are affected by a multitude of processes that may mask the true temperature variability. The relative magnitude of climate and non-climate contributions is expected to vary as a function of timescale, and thus it is crucial to determine those temporal scales on which the actual signal dominates the noise. At present, there are no reliable estimates of this timescale dependence of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Here, we present a simple method that applies spectral analyses to stable-isotope data from multiple cores to estimate the SNR, and the signal and noise variability, as a function of timescale. The method builds on separating the contributions from a common signal and from local variations and includes a correction for the effects of diffusion and time uncertainty. We apply our approach to firn-core arrays from Dronning Maud Land (DML) in East Antarctica and from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). For DML and decadal to multi-centennial timescales, we find an increase in the SNR by nearly 1 order of magnitude (∼0.2 at decadal and ∼1.0 at multi-centennial scales). The estimated spectrum of climate variability also shows increasing variability towards longer timescales, contrary to what is traditionally inferred from single records in this region. In contrast, the inferred variability spectrum for WAIS stays close to constant over decadal to centennial timescales, and the results even suggest a decrease in SNR over this range of timescales. We speculate that these differences between DML and WAIS are related to differences in the spatial and temporal scales of the isotope signal, highlighting the potentially more homogeneous atmospheric conditions on the Antarctic Plateau in contrast to the marine-influenced conditions on WAIS. In general, our approach provides a methodological basis for separating local proxy variability from coherent climate variations, which is applicable to a large set of palaeoclimate records.

scholarly journals Milankovitch Forcing and Meridional Moisture Flux in the Atmosphere: Insight from a Zonally Averaged Ocean–Atmosphere Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (18) ◽  
pp. 4841-4855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Antico ◽  
Olivier Marchal ◽  
Lawrence A. Mysak ◽  
Françoise Vimeux
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Milankovitch Forcing

Abstract A 1-Myr-long time-dependent solution of a zonally averaged ocean–atmosphere model subject to Milankovitch forcing is examined to gain insight into long-term changes in the planetary-scale meridional moisture flux in the atmosphere. The model components are a one-dimensional (latitudinal) atmospheric energy balance model with an active hydrological cycle and an ocean circulation model representing four basins (Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans). This study finds that the inclusion of an active hydrological cycle does not significantly modify the responses of annual-mean air and ocean temperatures to Milankovitch forcing found in previous integrations with a fixed hydrological cycle. Likewise, the meridional overturning circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean is not significantly affected by hydrological changes. Rather, it mainly responds to precessionally driven variations of ocean temperature in subsurface layers (between 70- and 500-m depth) of this basin. On the other hand, annual and zonal means of evaporation rate and meridional flux of moisture in the atmosphere respond notably to obliquity-driven changes in the meridional gradient of annual-mean insolation. Thus, when obliquity is decreased (increased), the meridional moisture flux in the atmosphere is intensified (weakened). This hydrological response is consistent with deuterium excess records from polar ice cores, which are characterized by dominant obliquity cycles.

An Adjoint Analysis of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Hybrid Coupled Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3751-3767 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véronique Bugnion ◽  
Chris Hill ◽  
Peter H. Stone
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract Multicentury sensitivities in a realistic geometry global ocean general circulation model are analyzed using an adjoint technique. This paper takes advantage of the adjoint model’s ability to generate maps of the sensitivity of a diagnostic (i.e., the meridional overturning’s strength) to all model parameters. This property of adjoints is used to review several theories, which have been elaborated to explain the strength of the North Atlantic’s meridional overturning. This paper demonstrates the profound impact of boundary conditions in permitting or suppressing mechanisms within a realistic model of the contemporary ocean circulation. For example, the so-called Drake Passage Effect in which wind stress in the Southern Ocean acts as the main driver of the overturning’s strength, is shown to be an artifact of boundary conditions that restore the ocean’s surface temperature and salinity toward prescribed climatologies. Advective transports from the Indian and Pacific basins play an important role in setting the strength of the overturning circulation under “mixed” boundary conditions, in which a flux of freshwater is specified at the ocean’s surface. The most “realistic” regime couples an atmospheric energy and moisture balance model to the ocean. In this configuration, inspection of the global maps of sensitivity to wind stress and diapycnal mixing suggests a significant role for near-surface Ekman processes in the Tropics. Buoyancy also plays an important role in setting the overturning’s strength, through direct thermal forcing near the sites of convection, or through the advection of salinity anomalies in the Atlantic basin.

14C Ventilation ages suggest a brief reversal of ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation during deglacial ‘Heinrich Stadial 1’

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sarnthein ◽  
Pieter M. Grootes
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Age Difference ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Deep Waters ◽  
Global Correlation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

<p>Changes in the geometry of ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) are crucial in controlling changes of climate and the carbon inventory of the atmosphere. However, the accurate timing and global correlation of short-term glacial-to-deglacial changes in the MOC of different ocean basins still present a major challenge. The suite of jumps and plateaus in the record of past atmospheric radiocarbon (<sup>14</sup>C) concentrations offers a unique opportunity of age control and global correlation. The upper and lower boundaries of atmospheric <sup>14</sup>C plateaus in the <sup>14</sup>C records of both tree rings and Lake Suigetsu (age calibrated on the basis of Hulu U/Th model ages)­ provide a detailed stratigraphic ’rung ladder’ of ~30 age tie points from 29 to 10 ka that can be used for dating of planktic <sup>14</sup>C records and an age correlation, by now employed to ~20 sediment cores obtained from key locations of MOC all over the global ocean. The age difference between paired planktic and benthic <sup>14</sup>C ages provides an estimate of the ventilation age of deep waters since their last contact with the atmosphere. <sup>14</sup>C ventilation ages of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) deep waters reveal coeval opposed geometries of Atlantic and Pacific MOC. Similar to today, LGM Atlantic deep-water formation went along with an estuarine inflow of old abyssal waters from the Southern Ocean up to the northern North Pacific and an outflow of upper deep waters. Vice versa, low <sup>14</sup>C ventilation ages of N.E. Pacific deep waters suggest a reversed, anti-estuarine MOC during early Heinrich Stadial 1 with a ~1500 year-long flushing of the deep North Pacific up to the South China Sea, when the North Atlantic was marked by an estuarine circulation geometry, gradually starting near 19 ka. Elevated <sup>14</sup>C ventilation ages of LGM deep waters reflect a major drawdown of atmospheric carbon. Subsequent massive age drops accompanying changes in MOC reflect major events of carbon release to the atmosphere as recorded in Antarctic ice cores. These contemporaneous features of the MOC and the carbon cycle offer a great test case for comparison with model simulation.</p>

scholarly journals Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7167-7186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Wunsch ◽  
Patrick Heimbach
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Boundary Current ◽  
Gaussian Stochastic Process ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The zonally integrated meridional volume transport in the North Atlantic [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19 yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian stochastic process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance of apparent trends. Gaussian behavior is consistent with the central limit theorem for a process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal instabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin.

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