Impact of climate change on superficial water resources in the South of France: statistical modelling over historical and future scenario periods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Labrousse ◽  
Sébastien Pinel ◽  
Mahrez Sadaoui ◽  
Wolfgang Ludwig ◽  
Guillaume Lacquement
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Strong Argument ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Climatic Indices ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Annual Water Discharge

<p>In the Mediterranean, climate change and human pressures are expected to significantly impact surface water resources. We studied these impacts on the water discharge of six coastal drainage basins of the Gulf of Lions in southern France over the sixty-years period 1959-2018. Our approach was based on statistical analyses of hydrological, climate, land use and water management data. Results suggested that the annual water discharge of the six rivers studied can be predicted with high confidence by only two climatic indices, exclusively calculated from monthly temperature and precipitation data. This is a strong argument that climate is clearly the dominant driver of water discharge trends in the study region. These models also easily allow individual testing of the role of temperatures and precipitations on the evolution of annual water discharge. The latter decreased with about 30-45% in the study catchments over the 1959-2018 period and 25% can be attributed solely to the annual temperatures increase. Considering future projections of different climate models under a RCP 8.5 scenario, which depicts the strongest climatic changes, the annual water discharge could still decrease about 49-87% during the 2006-2100 period. For all models, we furthermore examined the relationships between the observed and simulated climatologies, our climatic indices and the large scale teleconnection patterns in order to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in the predicted water discharge series.</p>

scholarly journals Unravelling Climate and Anthropogenic Forcings on the Evolution of Surface Water Resources in Southern France

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3581
Author(s):  
Camille Labrousse ◽  
Wolfgang Ludwig ◽  
Sébastien Pinel ◽  
Mahrez Sadaoui ◽  
Guillaume Lacquement
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Southern France ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Annual Water Discharge

In the Mediterranean, climate change and human pressures are expected to significantly impact the availability of surface water resources. In order to quantify these impacts during the last 60 years (1959–2018), we examined the hydro-climatic and land use change evolution in six coastal river basins of the Gulf of Lion in southern France. By combining observed water discharge, gridded climate, mapped land use and agricultural censuses data, we propose a statistical regression model which successfully reproduces the variability of annual water discharge in all basins. Our results clearly demonstrate that, despite important anthropogenic water withdrawals for irrigation, climate change is the major driver for the detected reduction of water discharge. The model can explain 78–88% of the variability of annual water discharge in the study catchments. It requires only two climatic indices that are solely computed from monthly temperature (T) and precipitation (P) data, thus allowing the estimation of the respective contributions of both parameters in the detected changes. According to our results, the study region experienced on average a warming trend of 1.6 °C during the last 60 years which alone was responsible for a reduction of almost 25% of surface water resources.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Srepok watershed, Central Highland of Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 524-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Huyen ◽  
Le Hoang Tu ◽  
Vo Ngoc Quynh Tram ◽  
Duong Ngoc Minh ◽  
Nguyen Duy Liem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Third ◽  
Central Highland ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Annual Water Discharge ◽  
Second Period

The Srepok watershed in the Central Highland of Vietnam plays an important role in the economic development of the region. Any harmful effects of climate change on natural resources may cause difficulties for social and economic development in this area. The present study aims to predict and evaluate changes of water resources in the Srepok watershed under the impact of climate change scenarios by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The study used observed weather data from 1990 to 2010 for the first period and climate change scenarios A1B and A2 from 2011 to 2039 for the second period and from 2040 to 2069 for the third period. According to the climate change scenarios of the studied watershed, future minimum and maximum daily average temperature will rise in all climate change scenarios and the amount of annual precipitation will fall in scenario A1B and go up in scenario A2. Based on the simulation results, the annual water discharge in scenario A1B decreased by 11.1% and 1.2% during the second and third periods, respectively, compared with the first. In scenario A2, annual water discharge increased by 2.4% during the second period but decreased by 1.8% during the third period.

QARABAĞ ÇAYLARININ SU EHTİYATLARI

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-37
Author(s):  
R.A. İsmayılov
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Average Observation ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Annual Water Discharge

Abstract. Karabakh is one of the main regions in Azerbaijan where local water resources are formed. The article calculated the water resources of the area using the data of hydrological observation stations operating on the Karabakh rivers before the occupation. For research and analysis of average annual water discharge, multiyear observation data of hydrological stations operating on the Karabakh rivers were collected and integrated into the SpSS Statistics program. For the study multi-year average observation data of 32 hydrological stations in 20 rivers were collected. In order to determine the exact location of the hydrological stations operating in the area, a map was compiled using the Geographic Information System with reference to the fund and archive materials. In addition, hydrological zoning of the flow was carried out depending on the orographic features of Karabakh. During the analysis, two hydrological regions were identified. The first hydrological region is the Tartarchay-Guruchay hydrological region, and the second region is hakari-Oлchuchay hydrological region. As a result of the study, it was determined that the water resources of the Karabakh rivers are 1.64 km3 , which is 5.31% of the total water resources of Azerbaijan. During the implementation of water management measures in the area, in order to ensure the water security of the area, the resource potential of atmospheric precipitation and river flow for the area was analyzed and maps were compiled. Keywords: Karabakh rivers, hydrological station, water catchment area, water resources, water balance, hydrological zoning

scholarly journals Repeated surveying over 6 years reveals that fine-scale habitat variables are key to tropical mountain ant assemblage composition and functional diversity

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulalo M. Muluvhahothe ◽  
Grant S. Joseph ◽  
Colleen L. Seymour ◽  
Thinandavha C. Munyai ◽  
Stefan H. Foord
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Functional Diversity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Composition Analysis ◽  
Fine Scale

AbstractHigh-altitude-adapted ectotherms can escape competition from dominant species by tolerating low temperatures at cooler elevations, but climate change is eroding such advantages. Studies evaluating broad-scale impacts of global change for high-altitude organisms often overlook the mitigating role of biotic factors. Yet, at fine spatial-scales, vegetation-associated microclimates provide refuges from climatic extremes. Using one of the largest standardised data sets collected to date, we tested how ant species composition and functional diversity (i.e., the range and value of species traits found within assemblages) respond to large-scale abiotic factors (altitude, aspect), and fine-scale factors (vegetation, soil structure) along an elevational gradient in tropical Africa. Altitude emerged as the principal factor explaining species composition. Analysis of nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity indicated that ant assemblages are specific to each elevation, so species are not filtered out but replaced with new species as elevation increases. Similarity of assemblages over time (assessed using beta decay) did not change significantly at low and mid elevations but declined at the highest elevations. Assemblages also differed between northern and southern mountain aspects, although at highest elevations, composition was restricted to a set of species found on both aspects. Functional diversity was not explained by large scale variables like elevation, but by factors associated with elevation that operate at fine scales (i.e., temperature and habitat structure). Our findings highlight the significance of fine-scale variables in predicting organisms’ responses to changing temperature, offering management possibilities that might dilute climate change impacts, and caution when predicting assemblage responses using climate models, alone.

scholarly journals Mapping the Distribution of Water Resource Security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region at the County Level under a Changing Context

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Yin ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Croke ◽  
Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
County Level ◽  
Populated Region ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jingjinji) region is the most densely populated region in China and suffers from severe water resource shortage, with considerable water-related issues emerging under a changing context such as construction of water diversion projects (WDP), regional synergistic development, and climate change. To this end, this paper develops a framework to examine the water resource security for 200 counties in the Jingjinji region under these changes. Thus, county-level water resource security is assessed in terms of the long-term annual mean and selected typical years (i.e., dry, normal, and wet years), with and without the WDP, and under the current and projected future (i.e., regional synergistic development and climate change). The outcomes of such scenarios are assessed based on two water-crowding indicators, two use-to-availability indicators, and one composite indicator. Results indicate first that the water resources are distributed unevenly, relatively more abundant in the northeastern counties and extremely limited in the other counties. The water resources are very limited at the regional level, with the water availability per capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP) being only 279/290 m3 and 46/18 m3 in the current and projected future scenarios, respectively, even when considering the WDP. Second, the population carrying capacity is currently the dominant influence, while economic development will be the controlling factor in the future for most middle and southern counties. This suggests that significant improvement in water-saving technologies, vigorous replacement of industries from high to low water consumption, as well as water from other supplies for large-scale applications are greatly needed. Third, the research identifies those counties most at risk to water scarcity and shows that most of them can be greatly relieved after supplementation by the planned WDP. Finally, more attention should be paid to the southern counties because their water resources are not only limited but also much more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. This work should benefit water resource management and allocation decisions in the Jingjinji region, and the proposed assessment framework can be applied to other similar problems.

scholarly journals Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dobler ◽  
G. Bürger ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Station Data

Abstract. The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7621-7655 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

scholarly journals Determining regional limits and sectoral constraints for water use under climate change

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 4695-4727
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
C. A. Sullivan ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Environmental Water ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Water Volumes ◽  
Main Determinants

Abstract. Water is an essential input to the majority of human activities. Often, access to sufficient water resources is limited by quality and infrastructure aspects, rather than by resource availability alone, and each activity has different requirements regarding the nature of these aspects. This paper develops an integrated approach to assess the adequacy of water resources for the three major water users, the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Additionally, we include environmental water requirements. We first outline the main determinants of water adequacy for each sector. Subsequently, we present an integrated approach using fuzzy logic, with allows assessing sector-specific as well as overall water adequacy. We implement the approach in two case study settings to exemplify the main features of the approach. Using results from two climate models and two forcing RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) as well as population projections, we further assess the impacts of climate change and population growth on the adequacy of water resources. The results provide an important step forward in determining the most relevant factors, impeding adequate access to water, which remains an important challenge in many regions of the world. The methodology allows to directly identify those factors most decisive in determining the adequacy of water in each region, pointing towards the most efficient intervention points to improve conditions. Our findings underline the fact that in addition to water volumes, water quality is a limitation for all sectors and especially for the environmental sector, high levels of pollution are a threat to water adequacy.

scholarly journals The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8315-8337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence S. Jackson ◽  
Declan L. Finney ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Rain Belt ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Mean Climate

AbstractThe Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5% vs 14%) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17% vs 10%). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Model Emulator based on Deep Learning: Concept and First Evaluation of a Novel Hybrid Downscaling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Doury ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Sébastien Gadat ◽  
Aurélien Ribes ◽  
Lola Corre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Way

Abstract Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The aim of this tool is to enlarge the size of high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost.We build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. Furthermore, the emulator relies on a neural network architecture, which grants computational efficiency. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM and in particular the way the RCM refines locally the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a huge computational benefit in running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 hours on GPU, and the prediction is nearly instantaneous. However, further work is needed to improve the way the RCM-emulator reproduces some of the temperature extremes, the intensity of climate change, and to extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest.

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