Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth

Author(s):  
Maximilian Kotz ◽  
Leonie Wenz ◽  
Annika Stechemesser ◽  
Matthias Kalkuhl ◽  
Anders Levermann

<p>Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate–economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models.</p>

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Wang ◽  
Wei Ji ◽  
Xinfang Yu ◽  
Xinliang Xu ◽  
Dong Jiang ◽  
...  

Global warming, which is representatively caused by CO2-based greenhouse gases, has caused widespread concern in the global scientific community and gets the high attention of each government in the world. Human activities impact climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes. The current study on the impact of urbanization on the annual average temperature of the recent 60 years in Beijing was conducted using 1951–2012 temperature data. Anomaly analysis, quadratic polynomial trend method, and moving average method were employed to indicate the temporal variation of temperature. The results showed that average temperature increased both in urban and rural areas. The temperature of urban Beijing increased during the period from 1951 to 2012, especially from 1971 to 1994. The temperature of rural Beijing showed a faster increase than that of the urban area from 1989 to 1998. However, the rate of temperature increase slowed down in recent years. This type of change was temporally consistent with the process of land use change and urbanization in Beijing. Economic restructuring and improvement of urban planning may have been one of the reasons that the regional warming has been slowed down in the rural area.


2014 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
Satyabrata Pal ◽  
Arunava Ghosh

SUMMARY Global annual average temperature (GAAT) is regarded as a precise indicator of the warming of the globe over the centuries, and its spectre is looming large with the passage of time and with the advancement of civilization. Global warming, caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has become the worst environmental threat to mankind. The phase 1981 to 2012 was the most crucial phase, and the impact of global warming in that phase indeed points to a disaster if not controlled now. Work on the building of appropriate models to represent the GAAT data can be found in the literature, although the precision levels (in terms of R2 values) of such models do not exceed 0.86. In this paper, six models are developed by using different combinations of mathematical functions. The developed models are superior to existing models in terms of their precision. In fact, to generate such models, extensive simulation work has been carried out not only with respect to the types of mathematical functions, but also with respect to the choices of initial values of the coefficients involved in each model. The models developed here have attained R2 values as high as 0.896.


REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 486-510
Author(s):  
Tatyana V. Mirolyubova ◽  
Marina V. Radionova

Introduction. The scientific problem under consideration is of particular relevance due to the need to assess the impact of the factors in the digital transformation of the regional economy and in the economic growth on the economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation. Based on the research conducted, the article presents an econometric assessment of the dependence of the level of the gross regional product per capita in the regions of Russia on such factors as digital labor and digital capital. Materials and Methods. The authors analyzed panel data from the Federal State Statistics Service covering 87 regions of Russia for the period from 2010 to 2018. The research methodology is based on the use of the Cobb–Douglas production function, statistical and correlation data analysis, as well as on econometric methods for studying panel data. Results. To analyze the impact of the digital transformation of the economy on the regional economic growth of the regions of Russia, various models based on panel data have been considered, such as the pooled model, fixed effects models, random effects models, as well as time-varying effects models using dummy variables. Based on statistical criteria, the best model has been chosen and conclusions have been drawn about the nature of the impact of the digital transformation indicators on the gross regional product per capita in the regions of Russia. Discussion and Conclusion. The results of econometric modeling have demonstrated that digital factors in economic growth (digital labor, digital capital), along with common factors in economic growth (labor and capital), affect the regional economic growth. According to the regional data for the period from 2010 to 2018, the time fixed effects model has proved to be the best model of the impact of the factors in economic growth and digital transformation on the economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation. The research results can be used when developing a public policy aimed at stimulating the digital transformation of the regional economy.


2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 1496-1499
Author(s):  
Guo Wei Xu ◽  
Xin Tian Yuan ◽  
Shu Ling Huang ◽  
Yang Gao

Selecting 50 years temperature observation data from1959 to 2008 and using statistical analysis, this paper revealed the characteristics of temperature variation in Hefei city. The results show that in past 50 years, the annual average temperature in Hefei city greatly increased, tendency rate of temperature change was 0.246°C/10 a, especially after 1993, the temperature increased significantly; the temperature in four seasons all increased somewhat, warming was most prominent in spring. The most significant temperature increase was in spring, winter following behind, temperature increase in autumn was not obvious, and the average summer temperature increased the most unobvious.


2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 2367-2395 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Yang ◽  
Y. Shi

Abstract. Ice caves exist in locations where annual average temperature in higher than 0 °C. An example is Ningwu ice cave, Shanxi Province, the largest ice cave in China. In order to quantitatively explain the mechanism of formation and preservation of the ice cave, we use Finite Element Method to simulate the heat transfer process at this ice cave. There are two major control factors. First, there is the seasonal asymmetric heat transfer. Heat is transferred into the ice cave from outside, very inefficiently by conduction in spring, summer and fall. In winter, thermal convection occurs that transfers heat very efficiently out of the ice cave, thus cooling it down. Secondly, ice–water phase change provides a heat barrier for heat transfer into the cave in summer. The calculation also helps to evaluate effects of global warming, tourists, etc. for sustainable development of ice cave as tourism resource. In some other ice caves in China, managers installed air-tight doors at these ice caves entrance intending to "protect" these caves, but this prevent cooling down these caves in winters and these cave ices will entirely melt within tens of years.


2011 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 286-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Chun ◽  
Mei Jie Zhang ◽  
Mei Ping Liu

The objective of this study is to analyse the climate changing patterns chronologically for exposing the coincident relationships between the lake area fluctuation and the climate change in Qehan lake of Abaga county of Inner Mongolia. The results show that there’s highly interrelation between the changes of the lake area and the climatic factors here, the annual average temperature and annual evaporation are negatively interrelate to the lake area fluctuation, and the annual precipitation interrelate to it is positive. The lake area has descended about 75 km2 during the nearly past 40 years. There were about two considerable lake expansions in 1973, 1998 through the generally lake area descending process.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-222
Author(s):  
Roman M. MEL'NIKOV ◽  
Valentina A. TESLENKO

Subject. The article explores the impact of changes in the educational structure of the employed population on the dynamics of economic growth. Objectives. The purpose is to evaluate the impact of changes in the share of employed persons, having secondary vocational and higher education, and researchers with academic degree on the growth rates of the Russian economy. Methods. The study employs the regression analysis of panel data of Russian regions, the specification with a quadratic dependence of economic growth rates on the share of employed persons, having the higher education and secondary vocational education. A fixed-effects model is used to analyze the short-term effects, the sustainability of results, and long-term effects, using the pool models and random effects models. Results. The increase in the share of researchers with academic degree has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, but only if adequate R&D funding is provided. The increase in the share of employed persons with higher education up to thirty percent is accompanied by an increase in the growth rate of real GRP in the long run, however, further expansion of higher education has no positive effect on economic growth. Conclusions. A powerful form of personnel training for Russian high-tech companies is a special model of ‘industrial postgraduate training’, which involves the collaboration of universities with industrial partners.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jaime Lancaster

<p>This thesis expands the literature on minimum and living wages by investigating local minimum wage ordinances and voluntary living wage programs. This thesis is presented as three distinct papers; the first explores a county-wide minimum wage ordinance in New Mexico, USA, while papers 2 and 3 explore New Zealand’s voluntary living wage program. In the United States, local minimum wage ordinances are growing in popularity, and research is emerging on their effects. Setting minimum wages at the local level is politically easier than enacting Federal legislation, and local minimum wages may be better targeted to local economic conditions. In my first chapter, “Local Minimum Wage Laws and Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from New Mexico,” I use fixed effects and synthetic control analysis to uncover the effects of a local minimum wage law on the Albuquerque/Bernalillo region of New Mexico, with a focus on how provisions exempting tipped workers affect gains in earnings. My findings reveal that these provisions can lead to reductions in hourly wages for workers exempted from the minimum wage even when the labour market is not harmed overall. I find that the minimum wage ordinance did not reduce teen employment but that it served to increase the supply of teen labour leading to an increase in the teen unemployment rate.  The second and third papers in this thesis address the voluntary living wage program in New Zealand. In the first quantitative work on New Zealand’s living wage, I utilize data from Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) to explore several facets of the living wage experience for employers and employees. In the second paper, “The New Zealand Living Wage: Earnings, Labour Costs and Turnover,” I investigate the characteristics of New Zealand living wage firms and use fixed effects to examine the impact of living wage certification on employment, worker earnings and turnover. My results provide some evidence for increases in labour costs and worker earnings following certification but find that this change is driven by changes in small firms that employ few workers. I find no evidence of a reduction in turnover.  In my final chapter, “Who Benefits from Living Wage Certification?” I investigate the distribution of benefits from the living wage based on an employees’ pre-treatment earnings, time of hire and whether or not they remained employed with the living wage firm. To do this, I utilize a worker-level panel dataset containing the full earnings history of all workers that were employed for a living wage or matched control firm between January 2014 and December 2015. I use fixed effects models containing fixed effects for worker, firm and month to compare patterns of earnings growth for workers hired before certification (‘pre-hires’) with those hired after certification (‘joiners’) and those who left their living wage job but remained in the workforce (‘leavers’). I also estimate the impact of living wage employment on the earnings of low-income workers. I find that the financial benefit of the living wage accrues almost exclusively to workers hired after certification and to low income workers. In addition, my analysis on the worker-level panel suggests that overall earnings growth in living wage firms lagged that in control firms over the observation period. This result is driven by relative declines in earnings for living wage workers in large firms and is attributed to increases in the published living wage rate that lags behind wage growth in the relevant segments of the job market.</p>


Author(s):  
Tracy Morse ◽  
Elizabeth Tilley ◽  
Kondwani Chidziwisano ◽  
Rossanie Malolo ◽  
Janelisa Musaya

Diarrhoeal disease in children under five in low income settings has been associated with multiple environmental exposure pathways, including complementary foods. Conducted from February to December 2018 in rural Malawi, this before and after trial with a control used diarrhoeal disease as a primary outcome, to measure the impact of a food hygiene intervention (food hygiene + handwashing) relative to a food hygiene and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) intervention (food hygiene + handwashing + faeces management + water management). The 31-week intervention was delivered by community-based coordinators through community events (n = 2), cluster group meetings (n = 17) and household visits (n = 14). Diarrhoeal disease was self-reported and measured through an end line survey, and daily diaries completed by caregivers. Difference-in-differences results show a 13-percentage point reduction in self-reported diarrhoea compared to the control group. There were also significant increases in the presence of proxy measures in each of the treatment groups (e.g., the presence of soap). We conclude that food hygiene interventions (including hand washing with soap) can significantly reduce diarrhoeal disease prevalence in children under five years in a low-income setting. Therefore, the promotion of food hygiene practices using a behaviour-centred approach should be embedded in nutrition and WASH policies and programming.


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