scholarly journals Meteorological, soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater data from the St Denis National Wildlife Area, Saskatchewan, Canada

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward K. P. Bam ◽  
Rosa Brannen ◽  
Sujata Budhathoki ◽  
Andrew M. Ireson ◽  
Chris Spence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Availability ◽  
Surface Water And Groundwater

Abstract. Long-term meteorological, soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater data provide information on past climate change, most notably information that can be used to analyze past changes in precipitation and groundwater availability in a region. These data are also valuable to test, calibrate and validate hydrological and climate models. CCRN (Changing Cold Regions Network) is a collaborative research network that brought together a team of over 40 experts from 8 universities and 4 federal government agencies in Canada for 5 years (2013–18) through the Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) Initiative of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). The working group aimed to integrate existing and new data with improved predictive and observational tools to understand, diagnose and predict interactions amongst the cryospheric, ecological, hydrological, and climatic components of the changing Earth system at multiple scales, with a geographic focus on the rapidly changing cold interior of Western Canada. The St Denis National Wildlife Area database contains data for the prairie research site, St Denis National Wildlife Research Area, and includes atmosphere, soil, and groundwater. The meteorological measurements are observed every 5 seconds, and half-hourly averages (or totals) are logged. Soil moisture data comprise volumetric water content, soil temperature, electrical conductivity and matric potential for probes installed at depths of 5 cm, 20 cm, 50 cm, 100 cm, 200 cm and 300 cm in all soil profiles. Additional data on snow surveys, pond and groundwater levels, and water isotope isotopes collected on an intermittent basis between 1968 and 2018 are also presented including information on the dates and ground elevations (datum) used to construct hydraulic heads. The metadata table provides location information, information about the full range of measurements carried out on each parameter and GPS locations that are relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data. The compiled data are available at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0115.

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Groundwater Levels

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

scholarly journals Surface Water Temperature Predictions at a Mid-Latitude Reservoir under Long-Term Climate Change Impacts Using a Deep Neural Network Coupled with a Transfer Learning Approach

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1109
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Kimura ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
Daichi Baba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Surface Water Temperature

Long-term climate change may strongly affect the aquatic environment in mid-latitude water resources. In particular, it can be demonstrated that temporal variations in surface water temperature in a reservoir have strong responses to air temperature. We adopted deep neural networks (DNNs) to understand the long-term relationships between air temperature and surface water temperature, because DNNs can easily deal with nonlinear data, including uncertainties, that are obtained in complicated climate and aquatic systems. In general, DNNs cannot appropriately predict unexperienced data (i.e., out-of-range training data), such as future water temperature. To improve this limitation, our idea is to introduce a transfer learning (TL) approach. The observed data were used to train a DNN-based model. Continuous data (i.e., air temperature) ranging over 150 years to pre-training to climate change, which were obtained from climate models and include a downscaling model, were used to predict past and future surface water temperatures in the reservoir. The results showed that the DNN-based model with the TL approach was able to approximately predict based on the difference between past and future air temperatures. The model suggested that the occurrences in the highest water temperature increased, and the occurrences in the lowest water temperature decreased in the future predictions.

scholarly journals A Review of Case Studies on Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Cycle: An Indian Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 249-266
Author(s):  
P K Bhunya ◽  
Sanjay Kumar ◽  
Sunil Gurrapu ◽  
M K Bhuyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Level Fluctuations ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Flood Characteristics

In recent times, several studies focused on the global warming that may affect the hydrological cycle due to intensification of temporal and spatial variations in precipitation. Such climatic change is likely to impact significantly upon freshwater resources availability. In India, demand for water has already increased manifold over the years due to urbanization, agriculture expansion, increasing population, rapid industrialization and economic development. Numerous scientific studies also report increases in the intensity, duration, and spatial extents of floods, higher atmospheric temperatures, warmer sea, changes in precipitation patterns, and changing groundwater levels. This work briefly discusses about the present scenario regarding impact of climate change on water resources in India. Due to the insufficient resolution of climate models and their generally crude representation of sub-grid scale and convective processes, little confidence can be placed in any definite predictions of such effects, although a tendency for more heavy rainfall events seems likely, and a modest increase in frequency in floods. Thus to analyses this effect, this work considers real problems about the changing flood characteristics pattern in two river regions, and the effect of spatial and temporal pattern in rainfall. In addition to these, the work also examines the trend of groundwater level fluctuations in few blocks of Ganga–Yamuna and Sutlej-Yamuna Link interfluves region. As a whole, it examines the potential for sustainable development of surface water and groundwater resources within the constraints imposed by climate change.

scholarly journals A plea for a novel kind of ecohydrology: the interaction between hydrological processes and - endangered or not - wildlife

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasper Griffioen ◽  
Martin Wassen ◽  
Joris Cromsigt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Ecosystem Engineer ◽  
Sewage Water ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Nature Reserves ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Nature Restoration ◽  
The Impact

<p>Ecohydrology usually refers to the effects of hydrological processes on the occurrence, distribution and patterns of plants. Here, we emphasize a new kind of ecohydrology in which the effects of hydrological processes on the occurrence of – endangered or not - wildlife become addressed via the threat of its habitat or, oppositely, where the occurrence of wildlife leads to a threat of endangered fauna. We present three examples to illustrate this.</p><p>First, the habitat of the tiger in the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL) at the foot of the Himalayas seems to increasingly become threatened by changes in the hydrological conditions. Grasslands in floodplains are an important part of the tiger habitat as these are the grounds where the tiger preferably hunts for deer as his prey. Disturbances of the water systems such as gravel and sand extraction from the river beds, intake of water for irrigation and hydropower production are increasingly happening and climate change may further alter the Himalayan water systems. This seems to disturb the grasslands in their hydrological and hydromorphological dynamics, which may negatively impact the density of deer, which may put additional pressure on the tiger populations in the nature reserves of the TAL.</p><p>Second, ungulates are important mammals in the grasslands and savannah of southern Africa. The water availability for these animals may alter upon climate change, including higher frequencies of droughts. Research suggests that the community composition of ungulates may alter by this. Here, the larger water-dependent grazers may be replaced by smaller, less water-dependent species.</p><p>Third, the beaver is well-known as hydrological ecosystem engineer. The beaver, therefore, has obtained some attention within the context of ecohydrology. The impact of the beaver as ecosystem engineer is, however, peculiar for nature reserves at the Belgian-Dutch border. Surface water with poor quality due to lack of appropriate sewage water treatment is running along nature reserves. The reintroduction of the beaver causes a rise in the surface and groundwater levels due to its dam-building activities. This induces an introduction of polluted surface water into the Dutch wetlands which contain a less eutrofied ecosystem than the Belgian ones that were fed by the polluted surface water. Nature restoration may thus go on the expense of nature degradation.</p><p>These examples show that the ecohydrology of wildlife is as fascinating and diverse as classical ecohydrology is.</p>

Coherent intra-annual ensemble forecasts of surface and groundwater availability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Robertson ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
Olga Barron ◽  
Geoff Hodgson ◽  
Andrew Schepen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Error Models ◽  
Groundwater Availability ◽  
Surface Water And Groundwater ◽  
Surface And Groundwater

<p>In many parts of the world, surface water and groundwater are used complementarily to supply agricultural production and to meet urban water demands. Conjunctive management of these water resources requires balancing of the different characteristics of surface water and groundwater with respect to availability, quality and cost of supply. Ensemble forecasts of surface water and groundwater availability can inform management decisions but require explicit representation of the complex processes controlling surface and groundwater interactions. While many methods and operational services exist that provide independent forecasts for surface and groundwater availability, to our knowledge no approaches for coupled forecasting have been developed yet.</p><p>In this presentation we introduce an approach that generates coupled forecasts of surface water and groundwater availability. It extends the Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS) (Bennett et al., 2016) approach to forecast groundwater level at specified locations, in addition to streamflow totals, to lead times of 12 months at monthly time steps. We adapt a conceptual hydrological model to improve predictions of streamflow and, as a by-product, groundwater level. We then apply independent error models to streamflow and groundwater level to reduce bias, update predictions using recent observations and quantify residual uncertainty. Ensemble streamflow and groundwater forecasts are generated by forcing the hydrological and error models with ensemble rainfall forecasts generated by post-processing ECMWF System 5 outputs. The skill, bias and reliability of the rainfall, streamflow and groundwater level forecasts were assessed for a case-study catchment in South-East Queensland, Australia. We find that skill of forecasts is dependent on the forecast issue month and lead time, with groundwater level forecasts displaying significant skill to lead times of 12 months, while streamflow forecast skill rarely persists beyond 3 months.  We conclude by describing opportunities to improve forecast skill and some of the challenges that may be faced in the operational delivery of water resource forecasts in real-time.</p><p>Reference</p><p>Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resources Research, 52, 8238-8259, 10.1002/2016WR019193, 2016.</p>

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6488) ◽  
pp. 314-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Park Williams ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
Benjamin I. Cook ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
North America ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Large Contribution ◽  
Moderate Drought

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 46% (model interquartiles of 34 to 103%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.

scholarly journals Varying soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in Central Europe

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

Abstract. The frequency and intensity of climate extremes is expected to increase in many regions due to anthropogenic climate change. In Central Europe extreme temperatures are projected to change more strongly than global mean temperatures and soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to this regional amplification. Because of their strong societal, ecological and economic impacts, robust projections of temperature extremes are needed. Unfortunately, in current model projections, temperature extremes in Central Europe are prone to large uncertainties. In order to understand and potentially reduce uncertainties of extreme temperatures projections in Europe, we analyze global climate models from the CMIP5 ensemble for the business-as-usual high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We find a divergent behavior in long-term projections of summer precipitation until the end of the 21st century, resulting in a trimodal distribution of precipitation (wet, dry and very dry). All model groups show distinct characteristics for summer latent heat flux, top soil moisture, and temperatures on the hottest day of the year (TXx), whereas for net radiation and large-scale circulation no clear trimodal behavior is detectable. This suggests that different land-atmosphere coupling strengths may be able to explain the uncertainties in temperature extremes. Constraining the full model ensemble with observed present-day correlations between summer precipitation and TXx excludes most of the very dry and dry models. In particular, the very dry models tend to overestimate the negative coupling between precipitation and TXx, resulting in a too strong warming. This is particularly relevant for global warming levels above 2 °C. The analysis allows for the first time to substantially reduce uncertainties in the projected changes of TXx in global climate models. Our results suggest that long-term temperature changes in TXx in Central Europe are about 20 % lower than projected by the multi-model median of the full ensemble. In addition, mean summer precipitation is found to be more likely to stay close to present-day levels. These results are highly relevant for improving estimates of regional climate-change impacts including heat stress, water supply and crop failure for Central Europe.

Evaluating the effects of climate change for groundwater quantitative status in Denmark

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annesofie Jakosben ◽  
Hans Jørgen Henriksen ◽  
Ernesto Pasten-Zapata ◽  
Torben Sonnenborg ◽  
Lars Troldborg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Ecological Flow

<p>By use of transient and distributed groundwater-surface water flow models, simulated time series of stream discharge and groundwater level for monitoring networks, groundwater bodies and river reaches have been analysed for a historical period and four different future scenarios toward 2100 in two large-scale catchments in Denmark. The purpose of the climate scenarios has been to qualify the existing knowledge on how future climate change most likely will impact hydrology, groundwater status and Ecological Quality Elements (EQR- Ecological flow in rivers). Another purpose has been to identify whether foreseen climate changes will be detected by the surface water and groundwater monitoring networks, and to which degree the River Basin Management Plan measures for supporting the goal of good quantitative status are robust to the projected changes in water balance and ecological flow. The developed hydrological models were run with climate inputs based on selected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate model runs (RCP8.5 wet, median, dry and RCP4.5 median). Changes in groundwater quantitative status and ecological flow metrics were calculated based on 30-year model runs driven by RCP8.5 for 2071-2100 (RCP4.5 for 2041-70) and compared to 1981-2010.</p><p>Overall the four scenarios results in very significant water balance changes with increased precipitation: 3% to 27%, evapotranspiration: 6% to 17%, groundwater recharge: 0% to 49%, drainage flow: 0% to 71%, baseflow: 0% to 31% and overland flow: 16% to 281%. For one catchment an increase in abstraction of 23% to 171% due to an increase in irrigation demand by 36% to 113% is foreseen. The results have wide implications for groundwater flooding risks, quantitative status and ecological flow metrics. Most sensitive is changes in ecological flow conditions in rivers for fish, showing a relative high probability for decreased state for 10-20% of the reaches for the RCP8.5 wet and dry scenarios due to more extreme hydrological regimes toward 2071-2100. Maximum monthly runoff is increased for winter months by 100% for RCP8.5 wet and median scenarios and around 10% for RCP8.5 dry scenario. Annual maximum daily flows is simulated to increase by up to a factor of five, and late summer low flows decreased.</p><p>Impacts on groundwater levels and water balances of groundwater bodies will be significant, with increased seasonal fluctuations and also increased maximum and decreased minimum groundwater levels for 30 year periods for 2071-2100 compared to 1981-2010.</p><p>More rain, both when we look back on historical data and when we look forward with latest climate projections will result in more frequent flooding from groundwater and streams in the future. At the same time, the temperature and thus evapotranspiration rises. This means that in the long term we will have increased challenges with drought and increased irrigation demands on sandy soils while evapotranspiration will also increase on the clayey soils. This will result in greater fluctuation in the flow and groundwater levels between winters and summers, and between wet and dry years, challenging sustainable groundwater abstraction and maintaining good quantitative status of groundwater bodies.</p>

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