scholarly journals Historic global biomass burning emissions based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)

Author(s):  
Margreet J. E. van Marle ◽  
Silvia Kloster ◽  
Brian I. Magi ◽  
Jennifer R. Marlon ◽  
Anne-Laure Daniau ◽  
...  

Abstract. Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997 back in time, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C year−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the IPCC CMIP simulations.

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3329-3357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margreet J. E. van Marle ◽  
Silvia Kloster ◽  
Brian I. Magi ◽  
Jennifer R. Marlon ◽  
Anne-Laure Daniau ◽  
...  

Abstract. Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Kasoar ◽  
Douglas Hamilton ◽  
Daniela Dalmonech ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Gitta Lasslop ◽  
...  

<p>The CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios include projections of future changes in anthropogenic biomass-burning.  Globally, they assume a decrease in total fire emissions over the next century under all scenarios.  However, fire regimes and emissions are expected to additionally change with future climate, and the methodology used to project fire emissions in the SSP scenarios is opaque.</p><p>We aim to provide a more traceable estimate of future fire emissions under CMIP6 scenarios and evaluate the impacts for aerosol radiative forcing.  We utilise interactive wildfire emissions from four independent land-surface models (CLM5, JSBACH3.2, LPJ-GUESS, and ISBA-CTRIP) used within CMIP6 ESMs, and two different machine-learning methods (a random forest, and a generalised additive model) trained on historical data, to predict year 2100 biomass-burning aerosol emissions consistent with the CMIP6-modelled climate for three different scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585.  This multi-method approach provides future fire emissions integrating information from observations, projections of climate, socioeconomic parameters and changes in vegetation distribution and fuel loads.</p><p>Our analysis shows a robust increase in fire emissions for large areas of the extra-tropics until the end of this century for all methods.  Although this pattern was present to an extent in the original SSP projections, both the interactive fire models and machine-learning methods predict substantially higher increases in extra-tropical emissions in 2100 than the corresponding SSP datasets.  Within the tropics the signal is mixed. Increases in emissions are largely driven by the temperature changes, while in some tropical areas reductions in fire emissions are driven by human factors and changes in precipitation, with the largest reductions in Africa. The machine-learning methods show a stronger reduction in the tropics than the interactive fire models, however overall there is strong agreement between both the models and the machine-learning methods.</p><p>We then use additional nudged atmospheric simulations with two state-of-the-art composition-climate models, UKESM1 and CESM2, to diagnose the impact of these updated fire emissions on aerosol burden and radiative forcing, compared with the original SSP prescribed emissions.  We provide estimates of future fire radiative forcing, compared to modern-day, under these CMIP6 scenarios which span both the severity of climate change in 2100, and the rate of reduction of other aerosol species.</p>


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Di Giuseppe ◽  
Samuel Rémy ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Fredrik Wetterhall

Abstract. The atmospheric composition analysis and forecast for the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) relies on biomass burning fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). GFAS converts fire radiative power (FRP) observations from MODIS satellites into smoke constituents. Missing observations are filled in using persistence where observed FRP from the previous day are progressed in time until a new observation is recorded. One of the consequences of this assumption is an overestimation of fire duration, which in turn translates into an overestimation of emissions from fires. In this study persistence is replaced by modelled predictions using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which describes how atmospheric conditions affect the vegetation moisture content and ultimately fire duration. The skill in predicting emissions from biomass burning is improved with the new technique, which indicates that using an FWI-based model to infer emissions from FRP is better than persistence when observations are not available.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2335-2351 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Chang ◽  
Y. Song

Abstract. Biomass burning in tropical Asia emits large amounts of trace gases and particulate matter into the atmosphere, which has significant implications for atmospheric chemistry and climatic change. In this study, emissions from open biomass burning over tropical Asia were evaluated during seven fire years from 2000 to 2006 (1 March 2000–31 February 2007). The size of the burned areas was estimated from newly published 1-km L3JRC and 500-m MODIS burned area products (MCD45A1). Available fuel loads and emission factors were assigned to each vegetation type in a GlobCover characterisation map, and fuel moisture content was taken into account when calculating combustion factors. Over the whole period, both burned areas and fire emissions showed clear spatial and seasonal variations. The size of the L3JRC burned areas ranged from 36 031 km2 in fire year 2005 to 52 303 km2 in 2001, and the MCD45A1 burned areas ranged from 54 790 km2 in fire year 2001 to 148 967 km2 in 2004. Comparisons of L3JRC and MCD45A1 burned areas using ground-based measurements and other satellite data were made in several major burning regions, and the results suggest that MCD45A1 generally performed better than L3JRC, although with a certain degree of underestimation in forest areas. The average annual L3JRC-based emissions were 123 (102–152), 12 (9–15), 1.0 (0.7–1.3), 1.9 (1.4–2.6), 0.11 (0.09–0.12), 0.89 (0.63–1.21), 0.043 (0.036–0.053), 0.021 (0.021–0.023), 0.41 (0.34–0.52), 3.4 (2.6–4.3), and 3.6 (2.8–4.7) Tg yr−1 for CO2, CO, CH4, NMHCs, NOx, NH3, SO2, BC, OC, PM2.5, and PM10, respectively, whereas MCD45A1-based emissions were 122 (108–144), 9.3 (7.7–11.7), 0.63 (0.46–0.86), 1.1 (0.8–1.6), 0.11 (0.10–0.13), 0.54 (0.38–0.76), 0.043 (0.038–0.051), 0.033 (0.032–0.037), 0.39 (0.34–0.47), 3.0 (2.6–3.7), and 3.3 (2.8–4.0) Tg yr−1. Forest burning was identified as the major source of the fire emissions due to its high carbon density. Although agricultural burning was the second highest contributor, it is possible that some crop residue combustion was missed by satellite observations. This possibility is supported by comparisons with previously published data, and this result may be due to the small size of the field crop residue burning. Fire emissions were mainly concentrated in Indonesia, India, Myanmar, and Cambodia. Furthermore, the peak in the size of the burned area was generally found in the early fire season, whereas the maximum fire emissions often occurred in the late fire season.


2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 3175-3226 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. van der Werf ◽  
J. T. Randerson ◽  
L. Giglio ◽  
G. J. Collatz ◽  
P. S. Kasibhatla ◽  
...  

Abstract. Biomass burning represents an important source of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, yet little is known about its interannual variability or the underlying mechanisms regulating this variability at continental to global scales. Here we investigated fire emissions during the 8 year period from 1997 to 2004 using satellite data and the CASA biogeochemical model. Burned area from 2001–2004 was derived using newly available active fire and 500 m burned area datasets from MODIS following the approach described by Giglio et al. (2005). ATSR and VIRS satellite data were used to extend the burned area time series back in time through 1997. In our analysis we estimated fuel loads, including peatland fuels, and the net flux from terrestrial ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and biomass burning, using time varying inputs of precipitation (PPT), temperature, solar radiation, and satellite-derived fractional absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR). For the 1997–2004 period, we found that on average approximately 58 Pg C year−1 was fixed by plants, and approximately 95% of this was returned back to the atmosphere via Rh. Another 4%, or 2.5 Pg C year−1 was emitted by biomass burning; the remainder consisted of losses from fuel wood collection and subsequent burning. At a global scale, burned area and total fire emissions were largely decoupled from year to year. Total carbon emissions tracked burning in forested areas (including deforestation fires in the tropics), whereas burned area was largely controlled by savanna fires that responded to different environmental and human factors. Biomass burning emissions showed large interannual variability with a range of more than 1 Pg C year−1, with a maximum in 1998 (3.2 Pg C year−1) and a minimum in 2000 (2.0 Pg C year−1).


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 3485-3497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcella Busilacchio ◽  
Piero Di Carlo ◽  
Eleonora Aruffo ◽  
Fabio Biancofiore ◽  
Cesare Dari Salisburgo ◽  
...  

Abstract. The observations collected during the BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3) and total peroxy nitrates ∑PNs, ∑ROONO2). The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of  ∑PNs, a long-lived NOx reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions. In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of concentrations of ∑PNs, whereas minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 is observed. The ∑PN and O3 productions have been calculated using the rate constants of the first- and second-order reactions of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation. The ∑PN and O3 productions have also been quantified by 0-D model simulation based on the Master Chemical Mechanism. Both methods show that in fire plumes the average production of ∑PNs and O3 are greater than in the background plumes, but the increase of ∑PN production is more pronounced than the O3 production. The average ∑PN production in fire plumes is from 7 to 12 times greater than in the background, whereas the average O3 production in fire plumes is from 2 to 5 times greater than in the background. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign, fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3,  but (1 ∑PN production is amplified significantly more than O3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the O3 production and the ∑PN production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the ∑PNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long-lived precursors of O3 than short-lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area.


2002 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 1159-1179 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Schultz

Abstract. Biomass burning has long been recognised as an important source of trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. The burning of vegetation has a repeating seasonal pattern, but the intensity of burning and the exact localisation of fires vary considerably from year to year. Recent studies have demonstrated the high interannual variability of the emissions that are associated with biomass burning. In this paper we present a methodology using active fire counts from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) sensor on board the ERS-2 satellite to estimate the seasonal and interannual variability of global biomass burning emissions in the time period 1996--2000. From the ATSR data, we compute relative scaling factors of burning intensity for each month, which are then applied to a standard inventory for carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning. The new, time-resolved inventory is evaluated using the few existing multi-year burned area observations on continental scales.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 9709-9746 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kloster ◽  
N. M. Mahowald ◽  
J. T. Randerson ◽  
P. J. Lawrence

Abstract. Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire behavior will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075–2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985–2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projection. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by −5%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase in 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by −6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 24875-24911 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. N. Yurganov ◽  
W. McMillan ◽  
E. Grechko ◽  
A. Dzhola

Abstract. CO total column (TC) retrievals from MOPITT version 3 and AIRS version 5 are validated through comparisons with archived TC data from the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) between March 2000 and December 2007. MOPITT retrievals exhibit an increasing temporal bias with a rate of 1.4–1.8% per year; thus far, AIRS retrievals appear to be more stable. For the lowest CO values in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), AIRS TC retrievals overestimate FTS TC by 20%. MOPITT's bias and standard deviation do not depend on CO TC absolute values. Empirical corrections are derived for AIRS and MOPITT retrievals based on the observed annually averaged bias versus the FTS TC. With these corrections, CO burdens from AIRS and MOPITT come into good agreement in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and in the tropical belt. In the SH, agreement between AIRS and MOPITT CO burdens is better for the larger CO TC in austral winter and worse in austral summer when CO TC are smaller. Interannual variations in AIRS and MOPITT retrieved CO burdens are compared with CO emissions from wild fires from the Global Fire Emission Dataset (GFED2) inventory. Before July 2008, all variations in retrieved CO burden can be explained by changes in fire emissions. After July 2008, global and tropical CO burdens decreased until October before recovering by the beginning of 2009. The NH CO burden also decreased but reached a minimum in January 2009 before starting to recover. The decrease in tropical CO burdens is explained by lower than usual fire emissions in South America and Indonesia. This decrease in topical emissions also accounts for most of the change in global CO burden. However, no such diminution of NH biomass burning is indicated by GFED2. Thus, the CO burden decrease in the NH could result from a combination of lower fossil fuel emissions during the global economic recession and transport of less CO from the tropics. More extensive modeling will be required to fully resolve this issue.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Evangeliou ◽  
Y. Balkanski ◽  
W. M. Hao ◽  
A. Petkov ◽  
R. P. Silverstein ◽  
...  

Abstract. In recent decades much attention has been given to the Arctic environment, where climate change is happening rapidly. Black carbon (BC) has been shown to be a major component of Arctic pollution that also affects the radiative balance. In the present study, we focused on how vegetation fires that occurred in Northern Eurasia during the period of 2002–2013 influenced the budget of BC in the Arctic. For simulating the transport of fire emissions from Northern Eurasia to the Arctic, we adopted BC fire emission estimates developed independently by GFED3 (Global Fire Emissions Database) and FEI-NE (Fire Emission Inventory – Northern Eurasia). Both datasets were based on fire locations and burned areas detected by MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on NASA's (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Terra and Aqua satellites. Anthropogenic sources of BC were estimated using the MACCity (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate/megaCITY – Zoom for the ENvironment) emission inventory. During the 12-year period, an average area of 250,000 km2 yr−1 was burned in Northern Eurasia and the global emissions of BC ranged between 8.0 and 9.5 Tg yr−1. For the BC emitted in the Northern Hemisphere, about 70 % originated from anthropogenic sources and the rest from biomass burning (BB). Using the FEI-NE inventory, we found that 102 ± 29 kt yr−1 BC from biomass burning was deposited on the Arctic (defined here as the area north of 67º N) during the 12 years simulated, which was twice as much as when using MACCity inventory (56 ± 8 kt yr−1). The annual mass of BC deposited in the Arctic from all sources (FEI-NE in Northern Eurasia, MACCity elsewhere) is significantly higher by about 37 % in 2009 to 181 % in 2012, compared to the BC deposited using just the MACCity emission inventory. Deposition of BC in the Arctic from BB sources in the Northern Hemisphere thus represents 68 % of the BC deposited from all BC sources (the remaining being due to anthropogenic sources). Northern Eurasian vegetation fires (FEI-NE) contributed 85 % (79–91 %) to the BC deposited over the Arctic from all BB sources in the Northern Hemisphere. Arctic total BC burden showed strong seasonal variations, with highest values during the Arctic Haze season. High winter–spring values of BC burden were caused by transport of BC mainly from anthropogenic sources in Europe, whereas the peak in summer was mainly due to the fire emissions in Northern Eurasia. BC particles emitted from fires in lower latitudes (35° N–40° N) were found to remain the longest in the atmosphere due to the high release altitudes of smoke plumes, exhibit tropospheric transport resulting in a high summer peak of burden, and grow by condensation processes. In regards to the geographic contribution on the deposition of BC, we estimated that about 46 % of the BC deposited over the Arctic from vegetation fires in Northern Eurasia originated from Siberia, 6 % from Kazakhstan, 5 % from Europe, and about 1 % from Mongolia. The remaining 42 % originated from other areas in Northern Eurasia. For spring and summer, we computed that 42 % of the BC released from Northern Eurasian vegetation fires was deposited over the Arctic (annual average: 17 %). Vegetation fires in Northern Eurasia contributed to 14 % to 57 % of BC surface concentrations at the Arctic stations (Alert, Barrow, Zeppelin, Villum, and Tiksi), with fires in Siberia contributing the largest share. However, anthropogenic sources in the Northern Hemisphere remain essential, contributing 29 % to 54 % to the surface concentrations at the Arctic monitoring stations. The rest originated from North American fires.


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