scholarly journals Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian Network

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Paprotny ◽  
Oswaldo Morales Nápoles
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Graphical Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Method Performance ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Dependency Structure ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Geographical Characteristics ◽  
Better Than

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazard requires adequate extreme discharge data. Models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former requires enormous computation power, while the latter are most limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian Networks (BN), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables describing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Data on annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauge stations were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and climate of catchments that drain to those locations. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe, and better than a comparable global statistical method. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and is not affected by a split-sample validation. The BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent, both for present and future climate, showing large variation in influence of climate change on river discharges, as well as large differences between emission scenarios. The method could be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

scholarly journals Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2615-2636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Paprotny ◽  
Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Graphical Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Catchment Areas

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables representing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauges (stations with catchment areas ranging from 1.4 to 807 000 km2) were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and local climate. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe and better than a comparable global statistical model. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and remains the same in a split-sample validation. Though discharge prediction under climate change is not the main scope of this paper, the BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent both for present and future climate, as an example. Results show substantial variation in the influence of climate change on river discharges. The model can be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

scholarly journals Identifying and Analyzing Dependencies in and among Complex Cyber Physical Systems

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1685
Author(s):  
Aida Akbarzadeh ◽  
Sokratis Katsikas
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Graphical Model ◽  
Cyber Physical Systems ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Physical Systems ◽  
Dependency Structure ◽  
Tightly Coupled ◽  
Insight Into

Contemporary Critical Infrastructures (CIs), such as the power grid, comprise cyber physical systems that are tightly coupled, to form a complex system of interconnected components with interacting dependencies. Modelling methodologies have been suggested as proper tools to provide better insight into the dependencies and behavioural characteristics of these complex systems. In order to facilitate the study of interconnections in and among critical infrastructures, and to provide a clear view of the interdependencies among their cyber and physical components, this paper proposes a novel method, based on a graphical model called Modified Dependency Structure Matrix (MDSM). The MDSM provides a compact perspective of both inter-dependency and intra-dependency between subsystems of one complex system or two distinct systems. Additionally, we propose four parameters that allow the quantitative assessment of the characteristics of dependencies, including multi-order dependencies in large scale CIs. We illustrate the workings of the proposed method by applying it to a micro-distribution network based on the G2ELAB 14-Bus model. The results provide valuable insight into the dependencies among the network components and substantiate the applicability of the proposed method for analyzing large scale cyber physical systems.

PENGEMBANGAN MEDIA BIG BOOK UNTUK MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR PECAHAN SENILAI SISWA SD

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Disyacitta Neolia Firdana ◽  
Trimurtini Trimurtini
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fourth Grade ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
Equivalent Fractions ◽  
Fourth Grade Students ◽  
Teacher Needs ◽  
The Media ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Better Than

This research aimed to determine the properness and effectiveness of the big book media on learning equivalent fractions of fourth grade students. The method of research is Research and Development  (R&D). This study was conducted in fourth grade of SDN Karanganyar 02 Kota Semarang. Data sources from media validation, material validation, learning outcomes, and teacher and students responses on developed media. Pre-experimental research design with one group pretest-posttest design. Big book developed consist of equivalent fractions material, students learning activities sheets with rectangle and circle shape pictures, and questions about equivalent fractions. Big book was developed based on students and teacher needs. This big book fulfill the media validity of 3,75 with very good criteria and scored 3 by material experts with good criteria. In large-scale trial, the result of students posttest have learning outcomes completness 82,14%. The result of N-gain calculation with result 0,55 indicates the criterion “medium”. The t-test result 9,6320 > 2,0484 which means the average of posttest outcomes is better than the average of pretest outcomes. Based on that data, this study has produced big book media which proper and effective as a media of learning equivalent fractions of fourth grade elementary school.

scholarly journals Assessment of Numerical Methods for Plunging Breaking Wave Predictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 264
Author(s):  
Shanti Bhushan ◽  
Oumnia El Fajri ◽  
Graham Hubbard ◽  
Bradley Chambers ◽  
Christopher Kees
Keyword(s):  
Solitary Wave ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Turbulence Models ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
Wave Crest ◽  
Breaking Wave ◽  
Rans Turbulence Models ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Better Than

This study evaluates the capability of Navier–Stokes solvers in predicting forward and backward plunging breaking, including assessment of the effect of grid resolution, turbulence model, and VoF, CLSVoF interface models on predictions. For this purpose, 2D simulations are performed for four test cases: dam break, solitary wave run up on a slope, flow over a submerged bump, and solitary wave over a submerged rectangular obstacle. Plunging wave breaking involves high wave crest, plunger formation, and splash up, followed by second plunger, and chaotic water motions. Coarser grids reasonably predict the wave breaking features, but finer grids are required for accurate prediction of the splash up events. However, instabilities are triggered at the air–water interface (primarily for the air flow) on very fine grids, which induces surface peel-off or kinks and roll-up of the plunger tips. Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) turbulence models result in high eddy-viscosity in the air–water region which decays the fluid momentum and adversely affects the predictions. Both VoF and CLSVoF methods predict the large-scale plunging breaking characteristics well; however, they vary in the prediction of the finer details. The CLSVoF solver predicts the splash-up event and secondary plunger better than the VoF solver; however, the latter predicts the plunger shape better than the former for the solitary wave run-up on a slope case.

scholarly journals SPAN512: A new mid-latitude pulsar survey with the Nançay Radio Telescope

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (S291) ◽  
pp. 375-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Desvignes ◽  
Ismaël Cognard ◽  
David Champion ◽  
Patrick Lazarus ◽  
Patrice Lespagnol ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radio Telescope ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
High Time ◽  
Frequency Resolution ◽  
Integration Time ◽  
Sensitivity Limit ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Large Bandwidth ◽  
L Band ◽  
Better Than

AbstractWe present an ongoing survey with the Nançay Radio Telescope at L-band. The targeted area is 74° ≲ l < 150° and 3.5° < |b| < 5°. This survey is characterized by a long integration time (18 min), large bandwidth (512 MHz) and high time and frequency resolution (64 μs and 0.5 MHz) giving a nominal sensitivity limit of 0.055 mJy for long period pulsars. This is about 2 times better than the mid-latitude HTRU survey, and is designed to be complementary with current large scale surveys. This survey will be more sensitive to transients (RRATs, intermittent pulsars), distant and faint millisecond pulsars as well as scintillating sources (or any other kind of radio faint sources) than all previous short-integration surveys.

scholarly journals Deglacial carbon cycle changes observed in a compilation of 127 benthic <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C time series (20–6 ka)

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1229-1252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlye D. Peterson ◽  
Lorraine E. Lisiecki
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Ocean Carbon

Abstract. We present a compilation of 127 time series δ13C records from Cibicides wuellerstorfi spanning the last deglaciation (20–6 ka) which is well-suited for reconstructing large-scale carbon cycle changes, especially for comparison with isotope-enabled carbon cycle models. The age models for the δ13C records are derived from regional planktic radiocarbon compilations (Stern and Lisiecki, 2014). The δ13C records were stacked in nine different regions and then combined using volume-weighted averages to create intermediate, deep, and global δ13C stacks. These benthic δ13C stacks are used to reconstruct changes in the size of the terrestrial biosphere and deep ocean carbon storage. The timing of change in global mean δ13C is interpreted to indicate terrestrial biosphere expansion from 19–6 ka. The δ13C gradient between the intermediate and deep ocean, which we interpret as a proxy for deep ocean carbon storage, matches the pattern of atmospheric CO2 change observed in ice core records. The presence of signals associated with the terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric CO2 indicates that the compiled δ13C records have sufficient spatial coverage and time resolution to accurately reconstruct large-scale carbon cycle changes during the glacial termination.

scholarly journals Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 2859-2876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Bruno Merz ◽  
Heiko Apel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Risk Maps

Abstract. Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost–benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

scholarly journals A networked voting rule for democratic representation

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 172265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis R. Hernández ◽  
Carlos Gracia-Lázaro ◽  
Edgardo Brigatti ◽  
Yamir Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
General Relation ◽  
Community Size ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Voting Rule ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
High Connectivity ◽  
Better Than

We introduce a general framework for exploring the problem of selecting a committee of representatives with the aim of studying a networked voting rule based on a decentralized large-scale platform, which can assure a strong accountability of the elected. The results of our simulations suggest that this algorithm-based approach is able to obtain a high representativeness for relatively small committees, performing even better than a classical voting rule based on a closed list of candidates. We show that a general relation between committee size and representatives exists in the form of an inverse square root law and that the normalized committee size approximately scales with the inverse of the community size, allowing the scalability to very large populations. These findings are not strongly influenced by the different networks used to describe the individuals’ interactions, except for the presence of few individuals with very high connectivity which can have a marginal negative effect in the committee selection process.

scholarly journals Design and Demonstration of Large Scale Cu2O Photocathodes with Metal Grid Structure for Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 7422
Author(s):  
Min-Kyu Son
Keyword(s):  
Water Splitting ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Grid Structure ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Intrinsic Conductivity ◽  
Metal Grid ◽  
Splitting System ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Better Than

Upscaling of photoelectrode for a practical photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting system is still challenging because the PEC performance of large-scale photoelectrode is significantly low, compared to the lab scale photoelectrode. In an effort to overcome this challenge, sputtered gold (Au) and copper (Cu) grid lines were introduced to improve the PEC performance of large-scale cuprous oxide (Cu2O) photocathode in this work. It was demonstrated that Cu grid lines are more effective than Au grid lines to improve the PEC performance of large-scale Cu2O photocathode because its intrinsic conductivity and quality of grid lines are better than ones containing Au grid lines. As a result, the PEC performance of a 25-cm2 scaled Cu2O photocathode with Cu grid lines was almost double than one without grid lines, resulting in an improved charge transport in the large area substrate by Cu grid lines. Finally, a 50-cm2 scaled Cu2O photocathode with Cu grid lines was tested in an outdoor condition under natural sun. This is the first outdoor PEC demonstration of large-scale Cu2O photocathode with Cu grid lines, which gives insight into the development of efficient upscaled PEC photoelectrode.

scholarly journals Results from the implementation of the elastic viscous plastic sea ice rheology in HadCM3

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-803
Author(s):  
W. Connolley ◽  
A. Keen ◽  
A. McLaren
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Future Improvement ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Solid Foundation ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
Better Than

Abstract. We present results of an implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea ice dynamics scheme into the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model HadCM3. Although the large-scale simulation of sea ice in HadCM3 is quite good with this model, the lack of a full dynamical model leads to errors in the detailed representation of sea ice and limits our confidence in its future predictions. We find that introducing the EVP scheme results in a worse initial simulation of the sea ice. This paper documents various improvements made to improve the simulation, resulting in a sea ice simulation that is better than the original HadCM3 scheme overall. Importantly, it is more physically based and provides a more solid foundation for future improvement. We then consider the interannual variability of the sea ice in the new model and demonstrate improvements over the HadCM3 simulation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document