scholarly journals The control of climate sensitivity on variability and change of summer runoff from two glacierised Himalayan catchments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sourav Laha ◽  
Argha Banerjee ◽  
Ajit Singh ◽  
Parmanand Sharma ◽  
Meloth Thamban
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Eastern Himalaya ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Winter Snow ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Catchment Runoff

Abstract. The response of catchment runoff to climate forcing is determined by its climate sensitivity. We investigate the sensitivity of summer runoff to precipitation and temperature changes in winter-snow dominated Chandra (western Himalaya), and summer-rain dominated upper Dudhkoshi (eastern Himalaya) catchments in order to understand the nature of climate-change impact on the mean summer runoff and its variability. The runoff over the period 1980–2018 is simulated with a semi-distribute hydrologic model, which is calibrated using available discharge and glacier mass loss data. An analysis of the interannual variability of the simulated summer runoff reveals that the runoff from the glacierised parts of the catchments is sensitive to temperature changes, but is insensitive to precipitation changes. The behaviour of the summer runoff from the non-glacierised parts is exactly opposite. Such precipitation-independent runoff from the glacierised parts stabilises the catchment runoff against precipitation variability to some degree. With shrinking glacier cover over the coming decades, the summer runoff from the two catchments is expected become more sensitive to the precipitation forcing and less sensitive to the temperature forcing. Because of these competing effects, the impact of the glacier loss on the interannual variability of summer runoff may not be significant. However, the characteristic ‘peak water’ in the long-term mean summer runoff, which is caused by the excess meltwater released by the shrinking ice reserve, may lead to a detectable signal over the background interannual variability of runoff in these two catchments.

Simulating streamflow and the effects of projected climate change on the Savage River, Maryland, USA

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy W. Hawkins ◽  
Bradley J. Austin
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
The Impact

The Savage River in western Maryland and its associated reservoir and watershed serves many purposes including recreation, drinking water supply, and auxiliary water supply for Washington DC. Streamflow on the Savage River was modeled using a simple hydrologic model and validated with historical streamflow observations. Future projected climate data were used to drive the model to assess the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on future streamflow. Winter streamflow is projected to increase, while spring, summer, and fall streamflow are projected to decrease. Annual streamflow totals show a slight negative trend over the coming century. Future changes in precipitation are more influential on future streamflow during the winter while temperature may be more important during the summer and fall. On an annual basis, by the year 2098, the impacts of temperature and precipitation will essentially cancel each other out resulting in only a small negative trend in annual streamflow. Increased streamflow during the winter months may not be able to compensate for decreased flow during the remainder of the year which raises concerns about the ability of the reservoir to supply water during future droughts.

Focus on Thermokarst Lakes in Indian Himalaya: Inception and Implication under Warming Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-69
Author(s):  
Pratima Pandey ◽  
S. Nawaz Ali ◽  
Vikram Sharma ◽  
Prashant K. Champati Ray
Keyword(s):  
Western Himalaya ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Thermokarst Lakes ◽  
Glacial Environments ◽  
Global Warming Scenario ◽  
Scientific Attention ◽  
Topographic Depressions ◽  
Permafrost Thawing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Thaw Lakes

Thermokarst (Thaw) lakes are landforms found in topographic depressions created by thawing ground ice in permafrost zones. They play an important role in the regulation of climatic functions. These lakes are a manifestation of warming surface temperatures that accelerates the ice-rich permafrost to degrade by creating marshy hollows/ponds. In the current global warming scenario, the thermokarst lakes in the high mountain regions (Himalaya) are expected to grow further. This accelerate permafrost thawing which will affect the carbon cycle, hydrology and local ecosystems. This phenomenon has attracted huge scientific attention because it has led to a rapid mass change of glaciers in the region, including extensive changes occurring on peri-glacial environments. The most striking fact is the release of an enormous amount of greenhouse gases, including methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide that is locked in these lakes. The present study delves into the thermokarst lakes in the upper reaches of Chandra Valley and Western Himalaya. The study also aims at designating the impact of their changes on the ecosystem, particularly their influence on the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

scholarly journals Unravelling thermal stress due to thermal expansion mismatch in metal–organic frameworks for methane storage

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jelle Wieme ◽  
Veronique Van Speybroeck
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Thermal Stress ◽  
Pressure Coefficient ◽  
Metal Organic Frameworks ◽  
Methane Storage ◽  
Thermal Expansion Mismatch ◽  
Thermal Pressure ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Metal Organic ◽  
The Impact

Thermal stress is present in metal–organic frameworks undergoing temperature changes during adsorption and desorption. We computed the thermal pressure coefficient as a proxy for this phenomenon and discuss the impact of thermal expansion mismatch.

scholarly journals Towards Including Dynamic Vegetation Parameters in the EUMETSAT H SAF ASCAT Soil Moisture Products

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Susan C. Steele-Dunne ◽  
Sebastian Hahn ◽  
Wolfgang Wagner ◽  
Mariette Vreugdenhil
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Incidence Angle ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Window Width ◽  
High Frequency Variability ◽  
Vegetation Parameters ◽  
The Impact

The TU Wien Soil Moisture Retrieval (TUW SMR) approach is used to produce several operational soil moisture products from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on the Metop series of satellites as part of the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H SAF). The incidence angle dependence of backscatter is described by a second-order Taylor polynomial, the coefficients of which are used to normalize ASCAT observations to the reference incidence angle of 40∘ and for correcting vegetation effects. Recently, a kernel smoother was developed to estimate the coefficients dynamically, in order to account for interannual variability. In this study, we used the kernel smoother for estimating these coefficients, where we distinguished for the first time between their two uses, meaning that we used a short and fixed window width for the backscatter normalisation while we tested different window widths for optimizing the vegetation correction. In particular, we investigated the impact of using the dynamic vegetation parameters on soil moisture retrieval. We compared soil moisture retrievals based on the dynamic vegetation parameters to those estimated using the current operational approach by examining their agreement, in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient, unbiased RMSE and bias with respect to in situ soil moisture. Data from the United States Climate Research Network were used to study the influence of climate class and land cover type on performance. The sensitivity to the kernel smoother half-width was also investigated. Results show that estimating the vegetation parameters with the kernel smoother can yield an improvement when there is interannual variability in vegetation due to a trend or a change in the amplitude or timing of the seasonal cycle. However, using the kernel smoother introduces high-frequency variability in the dynamic vegetation parameters, particularly for shorter kernel half-widths.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of hydrodynamics on large-scale flood wave propagation – a case study for the Amazon Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannis M. Hoch ◽  
Arjen V. Haag ◽  
Arthur van Dam ◽  
Hessel C. Winsemius ◽  
Ludovicus P. H. van Beek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Validation Parameters ◽  
Directional Coupling ◽  
Inundation Extent ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Large-scale flood events often show spatial correlation in neighbouring basins, and thus can affect adjacent basins simultaneously, as well as result in superposition of different flood peaks. Such flood events therefore need to be addressed with large-scale modelling approaches to capture these processes. Many approaches currently in place are based on either a hydrologic or a hydrodynamic model. However, the resulting lack of interaction between hydrology and hydrodynamics, for instance, by implementing groundwater infiltration on inundated floodplains, can hamper modelled inundation and discharge results where such interactions are important. In this study, the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB at 30 arcmin spatial resolution was one-directionally and spatially coupled with the hydrodynamic model Delft 3D Flexible Mesh (FM) for the Amazon River basin at a grid-by-grid basis and at a daily time step. The use of a flexible unstructured mesh allows for fine-scale representation of channels and floodplains, while preserving a coarser spatial resolution for less flood-prone areas, thus not unnecessarily increasing computational costs. In addition, we assessed the difference between a 1-D channel/2-D floodplain and a 2-D schematization in Delft 3D FM. Validating modelled discharge results shows that coupling PCR-GLOBWB to a hydrodynamic routing scheme generally increases model performance compared to using a hydrodynamic or hydrologic model only for all validation parameters applied. Closer examination shows that the 1-D/2-D schematization outperforms 2-D for r2 and root mean square error (RMSE) whilst having a lower Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). We also found that spatial coupling has the significant advantage of a better representation of inundation at smaller streams throughout the model domain. A validation of simulated inundation extent revealed that only those set-ups incorporating 1-D channels are capable of representing inundations for reaches below the spatial resolution of the 2-D mesh. Implementing 1-D channels is therefore particularly of advantage for large-scale inundation models, as they are often built upon remotely sensed surface elevation data which often enclose a strong vertical bias, hampering downstream connectivity. Since only a one-directional coupling approach was tested, and therefore important feedback processes are not incorporated, simulated discharge and inundation extent for both coupled set-ups is generally overpredicted. Hence, it will be the subsequent step to extend it to a two-directional coupling scheme to obtain a closed feedback loop between hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes. The current findings demonstrating the potential of one-directionally and spatially coupled models to obtain improved discharge estimates form an important step towards a large-scale inundation model with a full dynamic coupling between hydrology and hydrodynamics.

On the benefit of the Canadian Small Lake Model to better represent the impact of small natural lakes on GEM-Hydro streamflow simulations.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Etienne Gaborit ◽  
Murray MacKay ◽  
Camille Garnaud ◽  
Vincent Fortin
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Small Lake ◽  
Surface Component ◽  
Lake Model ◽  
The Impact

<p>This study aims at assessing the impact of a new lake model on streamflow simulations performed with the GEM-Hydro hydrologic model developed at ECCC. GEM-Hydro is at the heart of the National Surface and River Prediction System (NSRPS) which ECCC uses to forecast river flows over most of Canada. The GEM-Hydro model mainly consists of the GEM-Surf component to represent surface processes, and of the Watroute model to represent river and lake routing, in order to perform streamflow simulations and forecasts. The surface component of GEM-Hydro can simulate 5 different types of surfaces.  Currently, the water tile consists of a very simple algorithm which, in terms of water balance, consists of producing runoff fluxes simply equal to precipitation minus evaporation. This runoff over water surfaces is then provided as input, along with runoff and drainage generated over other surface tiles, to the Watroute model. The Watroute version used in GEM-Hydro currently only represents major lakes (area greater than 100km<sup>2</sup>) along the river networks, and does not represent the impact that small lakes can have on streamflow, which mainly consists in slowing down runoff before it reaches the main streams of the network.</p><p>Recently, the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) was implemented in the surface component of GEM-Hydro to represent the energy and water balance over water tiles more accurately. So far, CSLM simulations have been shown promising in terms of evaporation, ice cover, absolute and dew point temperature simulations, compared with the former algorithm used over water. However, the impact of CSLM on the resulting streamflow simulations performed with GEM-Hydro has not been evaluated yet. This study aims first at evaluating the impact of CSLM on streamflow simulations, and secondly at testing different CSLM configurations as well as different coupling strategies with Watroute, with the objective of finding the best set up for the prediction of streamflow in Canada. For example, overland runoff generated by the land tile can be provided to the water tile of the same grid point in different ways, and the outflow computed at the outlet of the water tile can be computed with different parameters. Moreover, different outflow computations have to be taken into account depending on if the water tile of a grid point represents subgrid-scale lakes, or if on the contrary it belongs to a lake spanning over multiple model grid points.</p><p>To do so, different GEM-Hydro open-loop simulations have been performed on the Lake of the Woods watershed, located in Canada, with and without CSLM to represent water tiles. The CSLM configurations leading to the best results are presented here. CSLM simulations are also evaluated in terms of surface fluxes, to ensure that the main purpose of the model, which is to improve surface fluxes to ultimately improve atmospheric forecasts, is preserved, compared to the default configuration of the model. Ideas for further improving the coupling between the GEM-Hydro surface and routing components, in terms of lake processes, are also presented and will be tested in future work.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1059-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Rath ◽  
J. F. González Rouco ◽  
H. Goosse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Geothermal Gradient ◽  
Temperature Profiles ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Temperature Signal ◽  
Borehole Temperatures ◽  
Borehole Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories. However, there are still many open questions concerning the significance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last Glacial Maximum is still present in borehole temperature profiles. It is shown here that this signal also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries by producing errors in the determination of the steady state geothermal gradient. However, the impact on estimates of past temperature changes is weaker. For deeper boreholes, the curvature of the long-term signal is significant. A correction based on simple assumptions about glacial–interglacial temperature changes shows promising results, improving the extraction of millennial scale signals. The same procedure may help when comparing observed borehole temperature profiles with the results from numerical climate models.

scholarly journals Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response to Seasonal Modulation of Ocean Color: Impact on Interannual Climate Simulations in the Tropical Pacific

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ballabrera-Poy ◽  
R. Murtugudde ◽  
R-H. Zhang ◽  
A. J. Busalacchi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ocean Color ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The ability to use remotely sensed ocean color data to parameterize biogenic heating in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model is investigated. The model used is a hybrid coupled model recently developed at the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) by coupling an ocean general circulation model with a statistical atmosphere model for wind stress anomalies. The impact of the seasonal cycle of water turbidity on the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of the coupled system is investigated using three simulations differing in the parameterization of the vertical attenuation of downwelling solar radiation: (i) a control simulation using a constant 17-m attenuation depth, (ii) a simulation with the spatially varying annual mean of the satellite-derived attenuation depth, and (iii) a simulation accounting for the seasonal cycle of the attenuation depth. The results indicate that a more realistic attenuation of solar radiation slightly reduces the cold bias of the model. While a realistic attenuation of solar radiation hardly affects the annual mean and the seasonal cycle due to anomaly coupling, it significantly affects the interannual variability, especially when the seasonal cycle of the attenuation depth is used. The seasonal cycle of the attenuation depth interacts with the low-frequency equatorial dynamics to enhance warm and cold anomalies, which are further amplified via positive air–sea feedbacks. These results also indicate that interannual variability of the attenuation depths is required to capture the asymmetric biological feedbacks during cold and warm ENSO events.

scholarly journals Spatial-temporal changes in river runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Zhai ◽  
Fulu Tao ◽  
Zhihui Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 ℃ above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 ℃, it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios by four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on river runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR) in China. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, river runoff and TEWR were analysed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that there were large uncertainties in climate scenarios from the different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in the impact assessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differences between the two warming scenarios. The interannual variability of river runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from 1.5 ℃ warming scenario to 2.0 ℃ warming scenario. By contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable. Both extreme low and high river runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas in China, with high river runoff increasing more. And the risk of extreme river runoff events would be higher under 2.0 ℃ warming scenario than under 1.5 ℃ warming scenario in term of both extent and intensity. River runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum temperature would generally cause river runoff to decrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation also played a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our findings highlight climate change mitigation and adaptation should be taken to reduce the risks of hydrological extreme events.

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