scholarly journals A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 901-925
Author(s):  
Haiyang Shi ◽  
Geping Luo ◽  
Hongwei Zheng ◽  
Chunbo Chen ◽  
Olaf Hellwich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Causal Structure ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Upstream Reservoir ◽  
Syr Darya

Abstract. The previous comparative studies on watersheds were mostly based on the comparison of dispersive characteristics, which lacked systemicity and causality. We proposed a causal structure-based framework for basin comparison based on the Bayesian network (BN) and focus on the basin-scale water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) nexus. We applied it to the Syr Darya River basin (SDB) and the Amu Darya River basin (ADB), of which poor water management caused the Aral Sea disaster. The causality of the nexus was effectively compared and universality of this framework was discussed. In terms of changes in the nexus, the sensitive factor for the water supplied to the Aral Sea changed from the agricultural development during the Soviet Union period to the disputes in the WEFE nexus after the disintegration. The water–energy contradiction of the SDB is more severe than that of the ADB, partly due to the higher upstream reservoir interception capacity. It further made management of the winter surplus water downstream of the SDB more controversial. Due to this, the water–food–ecology conflict between downstream countries may escalate and turn into a long-term chronic problem. Reducing water inflow to depressions and improving the planting structure prove beneficial to the Aral Sea ecology, and this effect of the SDB is more significant. The construction of reservoirs on the Panj River of the upstream ADB should be cautious to avoid an intense water–energy conflict such as the SDB's. It is also necessary to promote the water-saving drip irrigation and to strengthen the cooperation.

scholarly journals A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing basin-wide water-energy-food-ecology nexuses applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyang Shi ◽  
Geping Luo ◽  
Hongwei Zheng ◽  
Chunbo Chen ◽  
Jie Bai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Causal Structure ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Upstream Reservoir ◽  
Syr Darya

Abstract. The previous comparative studies on watersheds were mostly based on the comparison of dispersive characteristics, which lacked systemicity and causality. We proposed a causal structure-based framework for basin comparison based on the Bayesian network (BN), and focus on the basin-scale water-energy-food-ecology (WEFE) nexuses. We applied it to the Syr Darya river basin (SDB) and the Amu Darya river basin (ADB) that caused the Aral Sea disaster. The causality of the nexuses was effectively compared and universality of this framework was discussed. In terms of changes of the nexuses, the sensitive factor for the water supplied to the Aral Sea changed from the agricultural development during the Soviet Union period to the disputes in the WEFE nexuses after the disintegration. The water-energy contradiction of SDB is more severe than that of ADB partly due to the higher upstream reservoir interception capacity. It further made management of the winter surplus water downstream of SDB more controversial. Due to this, the water-food-ecology conflict between downstream countries may escalate and turn into a long-term chronic problem. Reducing water inflow to depressions and improving the planting structure prove beneficial to the Aral Sea ecology and this effect of SDB is more significant. The construction of reservoirs on the Panj river of the upstream ADB should be cautious to avoid an intense water-energy conflict as SDB. It is also necessary to promote the water-saving drip irrigation and to strengthen the cooperation.

Application of the Commercial approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 81-102
Author(s):  
S. Nazrul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
River System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
The World ◽  
Terrestrial Biodiversity ◽  
Syr Darya

Chapter 4 provides a few case studies of rivers to illustrate the consequences of the Commercial approach. These rivers are: the Colorado River of the United States; the Murray-Darling river system of Australia; the Amu Darya and Syr Darya of the former Soviet Union; the Nile River of Africa; and the Indus River of South Asia. It shows that in each case, the application of the Commercial approach has led to river fragmentation and excessive withdrawal of water, leading to exhaustion of rivers, which in turn led to salinity intrusion and erosion, subsidence, and desiccation of the deltas. The ecology of the river basins has been damaged, including loss of aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. In case of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers, this damage includes the destruction of the Aral Sea, once considered the second-largest inland waterbody of the world. In each case, the Commercial approach has led to conflicts among co-riparian countries.

The Decolonization of the Environment in Kazakhstan: The Novel Final Respects by Abdi-Jamil Nurpeisov

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dina Sharipova
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fishing Village ◽  
Human Culture ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Sea Power ◽  
Entire World

AbstractThis article examines the novel Final Respects by Abdi-Jamil Nurpeisov from a postcolonial ecocritical perspective. Nurpeisov was one of the first Kazakh writers to discuss the decolonization of the environment and the “process of self-apprehension” by writing about the tragedy of the Aral Sea, power relations between the center and periphery, and the interconnectivity of humans and the environment in the Soviet Union. Through the prism of a small fishing village, he shows the tragedy of a nation that has an impact on the entire world. The novel is thus a critique of anthropocentric policies imposed by Moscow on Kazakhstan and other Soviet republics. Throughout the text, Nurpeisov reiterates the connection between the local and the global on one hand, and human culture and the environment on the other.

scholarly journals A Great Game in Greater Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 238-243
Author(s):  
M. H. Glantz
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Aral Sea Basin ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Soviet Central Asia ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Central Asian Republics

The region historically referred to as Soviet Central Asia includes the 5 Central Asian Republics (CARs) of the Former Soviet Union (FSU): Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Their political status changed drastically when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and they became independent republics. Since the early 1990s, Central Asian leaders have referred on occasion to neighboring Afghanistan as the sixth CAR. In fact, it does occupy 14% of the Aral Sea Basin and its mountains supply about 15% of streamflow to the region’s mighty Amu Darya River that used to flow into Central Asia’s Aral Sea.

scholarly journals Water Balance Analysis Based on a Quantitative Evapotranspiration Inversion in the Nukus Irrigation Area, Lower Amu River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 2317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhibin Liu ◽  
Yue Huang ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Junli Li ◽  
Wei Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Quantitative Relationship ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Amu Darya River

Human activities are mainly responsible for the Aral Sea crisis, and excessive farmland expansion and unreasonable irrigation regimes are the main manifestations. The conflicting needs of agricultural water consumption and ecological water demand of the Aral Sea are increasingly prominent. However, the quantitative relationship among the water balance elements in the oasis located in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River Basin and their impact on the retreat of the Aral Sea remain unclear. Therefore, this study focused on the water consumption of the Nukus irrigation area in the delta of the Amu Darya River and analyzed the water balance variations and their impacts on the Aral Sea. The surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL) was employed to retrieve daily and seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) levels from 1992 to 2018, and a water balance equation was established based on the results of a remote sensing evapotranspiration inversion. The results indicated that the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) simulated by the SEBAL model matched the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) calculated by the Penman–Monteith method well, and the correlation coefficients between the two ETa sources were greater than 0.8. The total ETa levels in the growing seasons decreased from 1992 to 2005 and increased from 2005 to 2015, which is consistent with the changes in the cultivated land area and inflows from the Amu Darya River. In 2000, 2005 and 2010, the groundwater recharge volumes into the Aral Sea during the growing season were 6.74×109 m3, 1.56×109 m3 and 8.40×109 m3; respectively; in the dry year of 2012, regional ET exceeded the river inflow, and 2.36×109 m3 of groundwater was extracted to supplement the shortage of irrigation water. There is a significant two-year lag correlation between the groundwater level and the area of the southern Aral Sea. This study can provide useful information for water resources management in the Aral Sea region.

scholarly journals Approaches to Optimize Uzbekistan's Investment in Irrigation Technologies

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-147
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Original Size ◽  
Irrigation Technologies ◽  
Syr Darya

For many decades, Uzbekistan has been one of the largest cotton producers in the world. The irrigation water needed for these high production levels has been delivered by the massive diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, which naturally flowed into the Aral Sea. This diversion for agriculture was the main cause of the rapid decline of the Aral Sea, which is at only 10% of its original size today. The traditional method of irrigation, which relies on simple open canal systems, is highly inefficient for managing the region’s critical and limited water resource. It has been qualitatively estimated, for example, that irrigation water lost to evaporation and system inefficiencies is quite large. With the future availability of water at risk for agriculture in Central Asia, primarily due to the loss of glacial volume from global warming, along with declines in seasonal snowpack, it is clear that new approaches to water management are needed. Any serious efforts to restore the Aral Sea and its ecological services would also reduce supplies of irrigation water for Uzbekistan. While regional conflict over water is unlikely, it must be considered since Uzbekistan is a downstream country among several that rely on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for most of their water supplies. To insure against these risks to cotton production and the underlying economy, better irrigation technologies are needed across Uzbekistan. However, these technologies can be quite expensive, especially given that water is still nearly free. In this case study we explore the use of real options analysis (ROA) to look for optimal investment strategies in efficient irrigation technologies in light of variable climate and policy uncertainties.

scholarly journals Temporal/Spatial Variation of Terrestrial Water Storage and Groundwater Storage in Typical Inland River Basins of Central Asia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3385
Author(s):  
Ye Lyu ◽  
Yue Huang ◽  
Anming Bao ◽  
Ruisen Zhong ◽  
Han Yang
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Syr Darya ◽  
Amu Darya River

In this study, the Amu Darya river basin, Syr Darya river basin and Balkhash lake basin in Central Asia were selected as typical study areas. Temporal/spatial changes from 2002 to 2016 in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and the groundwater storage (GWS) were analyzed, based on RL06 Mascon data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, and the sum of soil water content, snow water equivalent and canopy water data that were obtained from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Combing meteorological data and land use and cover change (LUCC) data, the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on the terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) and the groundwater storage change (GWSC) was evaluated by statistical analysis. The results revealed three findings: (1) The TWS retrieved by CSR (Center for Space Research) and the JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) showed a decreasing trend in the three basins, and the variation of TWS showed a maximum surplus in spring (March–May) and a maximum deficit in autumn (September–November). (2) The decreasing rates of groundwater storage that were extracted, based on JPL and CSR Mascon data sets, were −2.17 mm/year and −3.90 mm/year, −3.72 mm/year and −4.96 mm/year, −1.74 mm/year and −3.36 mm/year in the Amu Darya river basin, Syr Darya river basin and Balkhash lake basin, respectively. (3) In the Amu Darya river basin, annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, while the evapotranspiration rate showed an increasing trend due to an increasing temperature, and the TWS decreased from 2002 to 2016 in most areas of the basin. However, in the middle reaches of the Amu Darya river basin, the TWS increased due to the increase in cultivated land area, water income from flooded irrigation, and reservoir impoundment. In the upper reaches of the Syr Darya river basin, the increase in precipitation in alpine areas leads to an increase in glacier and snow meltwater, which is the reason for the increase in the TWS. In the middle and lower reaches of the Syr Darya river basin, the amount of evapotranspiration dissipation exceeds the amount of water replenished by agricultural irrigation, which leads to a decrease in TWS and GWS. The increase in precipitation in the northwest of the Balkhash lake basin, the increase in farmland irrigation water, and the topography (higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest) led to an increase in TWS and GWS in the northwest of the Balkhash lake basin. This study can provide useful information for water resources management in the inland river basins of Central Asia.

scholarly journals Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 3387-3435 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. H. M. van Emmerik ◽  
Z. Li ◽  
M. Sivapalan ◽  
S. Pande ◽  
J. Kandasamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Health ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Environmental Awareness ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Pendulum Swing ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Holistic Understanding

Abstract. Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and a measure of environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. We propose this as a generalizable modeling framework for coupled human hydrological systems that is potentially transferable to systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

Hydro-hegemony in the Amu Darya Basin

Water Policy ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (S2) ◽  
pp. 71-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Wegerich
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Reservoir Capacity ◽  
Colonial Legacy ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
And Control

The water allocations in the Amu Darya Basin reflect the colonial legacy of the Soviet Union: the downstream riparian states, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, were utilized to produce cotton while upstream Tajikistan used water for energy production and it was anticipated to increase its reservoir capacity further to provide water storage and facilitate agricultural production downstream, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan were considered simple producers of water without having a real claim to it. Independence manifested inequitable water allocations, giving rise to the perception that especially Uzbekistan is the hydro-hegemon in the Amu Darya Basin. But the post-Soviet basin may be, in fact, without a hydro-hegemon. Data presented in this paper suggest that the riparian states are currently engaged in strategies of resource capture, by increasing their water demand without renegotiating agreements. In addition, while during the Soviet hegemony the increase of reservoir capacity upstream was perceived as ‘integration’ into the larger framework, today the re-emergence of these plans are perceived as a threat. The analysis of different aspects of hydro-hegemony, such as control over data, current discourses and control over provision infrastructure, demonstrates that Uzbekistan's control over the flows is hardly consolidated.

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