scholarly journals Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre- and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3123-3137 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Gouveia ◽  
A. Bastos ◽  
R. M. Trigo ◽  
C. C. DaCamara
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Vegetation Density ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Recovery Times ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The present work aims to study the combined effect of drought and large wildfires in the Iberian Peninsula relying on remotely sensed data of vegetation dynamics and leaf moisture content, in particular monthly NDVI, NDWI and NDDI time series from 1999–2009, derived from VEGETATION dataset. The impact of the exceptional 2004/2005 drought on vegetation was assessed for vegetation recovering from the extraordinary fire season of 2003 and on the conditions that contributed to the onsetting of the fire season of 2005. Drought severity was estimated by the cumulative negative effect on photosynthetic activity (NDVI) and vegetation dryness (NDDI), with about 2/3 of Iberian Peninsula presenting vegetative stress and low water availability conditions, in spring and early summer of 2005. Furthermore, NDDI has shown to be very useful to assess drought, since it combines information on vegetation and water conditions. Moreover, we show that besides looking at the inter-annual variability of NDVI and NDDI, it is useful to evaluate intra-annual changes (δNDVI and δNDDI), as indicators of change in vegetation greenness, allowing a detailed picture of the ability of the different land-cover types to resist to short-term dry conditions. In order to assess drought impact on post-fire regeneration, recovery times were evaluated by a mono-parametric model based on NDVI data and values corresponding to drought months were set to no value. Drought has shown to delay recovery times for several months in all the selected scars from 2003. The analysis of vegetation dynamics and fire selectivity in 2005 suggests that fires tended to occur in pixels presenting lower vegetative and water stress conditions during spring and early summer months. Additionally, pre-fire vegetation dynamics, in particular vegetation density and water availability during spring and early summer, has shown to influence significantly the levels of fire damage. These results stress the role of fuel availability in fire occurrence and impact on the Iberian Peninsula.

scholarly journals Influence of Altitude on the Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Droughts in Mountain Regions of the Free State Province, South Africa (1960–2013)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Mbiriri ◽  
G. Mukwada ◽  
D. Manatsa
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Free State ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Free State Province ◽  
The Impact

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed for October to December (OND) and January to March (JFM) summer subseasons for Free State Province, South Africa, to assess the influence of altitude on drought severity and frequency. The observed spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the SPI variability revealed that factors governing drought interannual variability varied markedly within the region for the two subseasons. Strong correlations between r=0.76 and 0.93 across the clusters in both subseasons were observed. Significant shift in average SPI, towards the high during the OND subseason, was detected for the far western low-lying and central regions of the province around the 1990s. An ANOVA test revealed a significant relationship between drought severity and altitude during the OND subseason only. The impact of altitude is partly manifested in the strong relationship between meridional winds and SPI extremes. When the winds are largely northerly, Free State lies predominantly in the windward side of the Drakensberg Mountains but lies in the rain shadow when the winds are mostly southerly. The relationship between ENSO and SPI indicates stronger correlations for the early summer subseason than for the late summer subseason while overall presenting a diminishing intensity with height over the province.

Timing matters – the importance of “when” droughts and temperature anomalies occur in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarek EI-Madany ◽  
Arnaud Carrara ◽  
Gerardo Moreno ◽  
M. Pilar Martin ◽  
Javier Pacheco-Labrador ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Ecosystem Productivity ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

<p>Mediterranean ecosystems and their different vegetation types are adapted to the annual cycle between wet and cool winter periods and dry and hot summers. Within this cycle, productivity is strongly driven by water availability but also temperature. With climate change, the Mediterranean area, and especially the Iberian Peninsula is expected to receive less precipitation. Future projections of temperature distributions of the Iberian Peninsula predict shifts toward a higher mean (+2 °C) and maximum (+4 °C) temperature. As a result, an increase in drought frequency and duration can be assumed. The response of the vegetation, especially with respect to the different components of the carbon cycle [net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco)] and plant stress are still not well understood for these ecosystems. One of the biggest unknowns is the impact of the timing of temperature and precipitation anomalies on the carbon balances of these ecosystems.</p><p>We present results from different studies focusing on the Iberian Peninsula showing the importance of the timing of temperature and water availability anomalies and how they influence the carbon balance of those ecosystems. While the impact of a strong compound heat and drought event during the summer period had only a very small impact on the carbon balance of the ecosystem a positive temperature anomaly during the winter period of 2015/16 caused a strong increase in ecosystem productivity. The differences in the ecosystem responses are a result of the different ecosystem conditions and limitations. During summer the analyzed ecosystems are already under conditions of strong water limitation and reduced ecosystem productivity (senesced grass layer and stressed trees) and thus the response to the compound event was low. While during winter, large parts of the Iberian Peninsula are temperature limited, and increased temperatures relieved this limitation and increased LAI i.e. fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation. On the other hand, the timing of precipitation, that controls the water availability in the soil during the spring and autumn periods have a large impact on the annual carbon balance of these ecosystems as they can reduce or increase the growing season length, and thus the carbon sequestration of these ecosystems. A recent study indicates that the impact of warm winters is not only increasing GPP but also Reco with important memory effects (i.e. increase of Reco later in the season). As a result, winter warming might lead to increased carbon uptake during winter but leads to a reduction in net carbon uptake for the whole year. Given the predictions of warming winters in the Mediterranean areas, this might cause more implications for the carbon balance as compared to summer heatwaves and droughts.</p>

scholarly journals Soil Moisture Dynamics in Response to Precipitation and Thinning in a Semi-Dry Forest in Northern Mexico

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Argelia E. Rascón-Ramos ◽  
Martín Martínez-Salvador ◽  
Gabriel Sosa-Pérez ◽  
Federico Villarreal-Guerrero ◽  
Alfredo Pinedo-Alvarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Dry Forest ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Northern Mexico ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moisture Dynamics

Understanding soil moisture behavior in semi-dry forests is essential for evaluating the impact of forest management on water availability. The objective of the study was to analyze soil moisture based in storm observations in three micro-catchments (0.19, 0.20, and 0.27 ha) with similar tree densities, and subject to different thinning intensities in a semi-dry forest in Chihuahua, Mexico. Vegetation, soil characteristics, precipitation, and volumetric water content were measured before thinning (2018), and after 0%, 40%, and 80% thinning for each micro-catchment (2019). Soil moisture was low and relatively similar among the three micro-catchments in 2018 (mean = 8.5%), and only large rainfall events (>30 mm) increased soil moisture significantly (29–52%). After thinning, soil moisture was higher and significantly different among the micro-catchments only during small rainfall events (<10 mm), while a difference was not noted during large events. The difference before–after during small rainfall events was not significant for the control (0% thinning); whereas 40% and 80% thinning increased soil moisture significantly by 40% and 53%, respectively. Knowledge of the response of soil moisture as a result of thinning and rainfall characteristics has important implications, especially for evaluating the impact of forest management on water availability.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Predicting distribution of malaria vector larval habitats in Ethiopia by integrating distributed hydrologic modeling with remotely sensed data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ai-Ling Jiang ◽  
Ming-Chieh Lee ◽  
Guofa Zhou ◽  
Daibin Zhong ◽  
Dawit Hawaria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Vector ◽  
Malaria Control ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Larval Habitat ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Larval Habitats ◽  
Common Land Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractLarval source management has gained renewed interest as a malaria control strategy in Africa but the widespread and transient nature of larval breeding sites poses a challenge to its implementation. To address this problem, we propose combining an integrated high resolution (50 m) distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed data to simulate potential malaria vector aquatic habitats. The novelty of our approach lies in its consideration of irrigation practices and its ability to resolve complex ponding processes that contribute to potential larval habitats. The simulation was performed for the year of 2018 using ParFlow-Common Land Model (CLM) in a sugarcane plantation in the Oromia region, Ethiopia to examine the effects of rainfall and irrigation. The model was calibrated using field observations of larval habitats to successfully predict ponding at all surveyed locations from the validation dataset. Results show that without irrigation, at least half of the area inside the farms had a 40% probability of potential larval habitat occurrence. With irrigation, the probability increased to 56%. Irrigation dampened the seasonality of the potential larval habitats such that the peak larval habitat occurrence window during the rainy season was extended into the dry season. Furthermore, the stability of the habitats was prolonged, with a significant shift from semi-permanent to permanent habitats. Our study provides a hydrological perspective on the impact of environmental modification on malaria vector ecology, which can potentially inform malaria control strategies through better water management.

scholarly journals Understanding the Impact of Different Landscape-Level Fuel Management Strategies on Wildfire Hazard in Central Portugal

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 522
Author(s):  
Akli Benali ◽  
Ana C. L. Sá ◽  
João Pinho ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
José M. C. Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Treatment Area ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
The North ◽  
Wildfire Hazard ◽  
Central Portugal ◽  
The Impact

The extreme 2017 fire season in Portugal led to widespread recognition of the need for a paradigm shift in forest and wildfire management. We focused our study on Alvares, a parish in central Portugal located in a fire-prone area, which had 60% of its area burned in 2017. We evaluated how different fuel treatment strategies may reduce wildfire hazard in Alvares through (i) a fuel break network with different extents corresponding to different levels of priority and (ii) random fuel treatments resulting from a potential increase in stand-level management intensity. To assess this, we developed a stochastic wildfire simulation system (FUNC-SIM) that integrates uncertainties in fuel distribution over the landscape. If the landscape remains unchanged, Alvares will have large burn probabilities in the north, northeast and center-east areas of the parish that are very often associated with high fireline intensities. The different fuel treatment scenarios decreased burned area between 12.1–31.2%, resulting from 1–4.6% increases in the annual treatment area and reduced the likelihood of wildfires larger than 5000 ha by 10–40%. On average, simulated burned area decreased 0.22% per each ha treated, and cost-effectiveness decreased with increasing area treated. Overall, both fuel treatment strategies effectively reduced wildfire hazard and should be part of a larger, holistic and integrated plan to reduce the vulnerability of the Alvares parish to wildfires.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 239980832199870
Author(s):  
Sheree A Pagsuyoin ◽  
Joost R Santos
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
National Capital Region ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document