scholarly journals Drift simulation of MH370 debris using supersensemble techniques

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Jansen ◽  
Giovanni Coppini ◽  
Nadia Pinardi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Search Area ◽  
Extensive Search ◽  
The Right ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. On the 7th of March 2014 (UTC), Malaysia Airlines flight 370 vanished without a trace. The aircraft is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean, but despite extensive search operations the location of the wreckage is still unknown. The only part of the aircraft that has been recovered so far is a small piece of the right wing. It was discovered 17 months after the disappearance on the island of Réunion, approximately 4,000 km from the assumed crash site. This paper presents a numerical simulation using high resolution oceanographic and meteorological data to predict the movement of floating debris from the accident. It combines multiple model realisations into a superensemble, and includes the discovery of debris on Réunion to improve the final result. The superensemble is used to predict the distribution of debris at various moments in time. The results for the initial probability density show good agreement with the current underwater search area. Results at later times show that the most probable locations to discover washed up debris are along the African west-coast and the southeast of Australia. The debris remaining at sea from late 2015 is spread out over a wide area and its distribution changes only slowly.

scholarly journals Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1623-1628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Jansen ◽  
Giovanni Coppini ◽  
Nadia Pinardi
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Marine Debris ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Search Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Extensive Search ◽  
Tangible Evidence ◽  
The Right

Abstract. On 7 March 2014 (UTC), Malaysia Airlines flight 370 vanished without a trace. The aircraft is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean, but despite extensive search operations the location of the wreckage is still unknown. The first tangible evidence of the accident was discovered almost 17 months after the disappearance. On 29 July 2015, a small piece of the right wing of the aircraft was found washed up on the island of Réunion, approximately 4000 km from the assumed crash site. Since then a number of other parts have been found in Mozambique, South Africa and on Rodrigues Island. This paper presents a numerical simulation using high-resolution oceanographic and meteorological data to predict the movement of floating debris from the accident. Multiple model realisations are used with different starting locations and wind drag parameters. The model realisations are combined into a superensemble, adjusting the model weights to best represent the discovered debris. The superensemble is then used to predict the distribution of marine debris at various moments in time. This approach can be easily generalised to other drift simulations where observations are available to constrain unknown input parameters. The distribution at the time of the accident shows that the discovered debris most likely originated from the wide search area between 28 and 35° S. This partially overlaps with the current underwater search area, but extends further towards the north. Results at later times show that the most probable locations to discover washed-up debris are along the African east coast, especially in the area around Madagascar. The debris remaining at sea in 2016 is spread out over a wide area and its distribution changes only slowly.

Take one dispersing plume and add some precipitation: using ensembles to simulate deposition uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Leadbetter ◽  
Peter Bedwell ◽  
Gertie Geertsema ◽  
Irene Korsakissok ◽  
Jasper Tomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Radioactive Material ◽  
Positional Error ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Dispersion Models ◽  
Air Concentration ◽  
Initial State

<p>In the event of an accidental airborne release of radioactive material, dispersion models would be used to simulate the spread of the pollutant in the atmosphere and its subsequent deposition. Typically, meteorological information is provided to dispersion models from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. As these NWP models have increased in resolution their ability to resolve short-lived, heavy precipitation events covering smaller areas has improved. This has led to more realistic looking precipitation forecasts. However, when traditional statistics comparing precipitation predictions to measurements at a point (e.g. an observation site) are used, these high-resolution models appear to have a lower skill in predicting precipitation due to small differences in the location and timing of the precipitation with respect to the observations. This positional error is carried through to the dispersion model resulting in predictions of high deposits where none are observed and vice versa; a problem known as the double penalty problem in meteorology.</p><p>Since observations are not available at the onset of an event, it is crucial to gain insight into the possible location and timing errors. One method to address this issue is to use ensemble meteorological data as input to the dispersion model. Meteorological ensembles are typically generated by running multiple model integrations where each model integration starts from a perturbed initial state and uses slightly different model parametrisations to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state and its evolution. Ensemble meteorological data provide several possible predictions of the precipitation that are all considered to be equally likely and this allows the dispersion model to produce several possible predictions of the deposits of radioactive material.</p><p>As part of the Euratom funded project, CONFIDENCE, a case study involving the passage of a warm front, where the timing of the front is uncertain in relation to a hypothetical nuclear accident in Europe was examined. In this study a ten-member meteorological ensemble was generated using time lagged forecasts to simulate perturbations in the initial state and two different model parameterisations. This meteorological ensemble was used as input to a single dispersion model to generate a dispersion model ensemble. The resulting ensemble dispersion output and methods to communicate the uncertainty in the deposition and the resulting uncertainty in the air concentration predictions are presented. The results demonstrate how high-resolution meteorological ensembles can be combined with dispersion models to simulate the maximum impact of precipitation and the uncertainty in its position and timing.</p>

scholarly journals High-Resolution Monthly Precipitation Fields (1913–2015) over a Complex Mountain Area Centred on the Forni Valley (Central Italian Alps)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Golzio Alessio ◽  
Crespi Alice ◽  
Irene Maria Bollati ◽  
Senese Antonella ◽  
Guglielmina Adele Diolaiuti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Good Agreement

Mountain environments are extremely influenced by climate change but are also often affected by the lack of long and high-quality meteorological data, especially in glaciated areas, which limits the ability to investigate the acting processes at local scale. For this reason, we checked a method to reconstruct high-resolution spatial distribution and temporal evolution of precipitation. The study area is centred on the Forni Glacier area (Central Italian Alps), where an automatic weather station is present since 2005. We set up a model based on monthly homogenised precipitation series and we spatialised climatologies and anomalies on a 30-arc-second-resolution DEM, using Local Weighted Linear Regression (LWLR) and Regression Kriging (RK) of precipitation versus elevation, in order to test the most suitable approach for this complex terrain area. The comparison shows that LWLR has a better reconstruction ability for winter while RK slightly prevails during summer. The results of precipitation spatialisation were compared with station observations and with data collected at the weather station on Forni Glacier, which were not used to calibrate the model. A very good agreement between observed and modelled precipitation records was pointed out for most station sites. The agreement is lower, but encouraging, for Forni Glacier station data.

scholarly journals Operational use of improved CMVs derived from INSAT IR data in NWP Model over Indian region

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-322
Author(s):  
DEVENDRA SINGH ◽  
R. C. BHATIA ◽  
S. K. SRIVASTAV ◽  
SANT PRASAD ◽  
R. K. GIRI
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Processing System ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Data Processing System ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Operational Scheme

Lkkj & balSV ls izkIr lh- ,e- oh- dh xq.krk vk’oklu ¼D;w- ,-½ tk¡p izkjaHk esa ,u- lh- bZ- ih- okf’kaxVu vFkok bZ- lh- ,e- MCY;w- ,Q- ls izkIr 12 ?kaVs ds fuEu foHksnu iwokZuqeku ds vk¡dM+ksa dk mi;ksx djds dh tkrh gSA fgan egklkxj ds vi;kZIr vk¡dM+ksa okys {ks= ls balSV vFkok vU; mixzgksa ls izkIr lh- ,e- oh- dk mi;ksx bu iwokZuqekuksa esa izkjaHk esa ugha fd;k tkrk FkkA vU; dsUnzksa dks balSV ls izkIr lh- ,e- oh- dh xq.krk fo’oluh; Lrj dh ugha yxhA tqykbZ 98 ls igys] balSV ds vykok fdlh vU; mixzg ls fgan egklkxj ds vi;kZIr vk¡dM+ksa okys {ks= ds vk¡dM+s izkIr ugha gq,A tqykbZ 98 esa] ehfVvkslSV&5 dks fgan egklkxj ds Åij 63 fMxzh iwoZ dh vksj f[kldk;k x;kA balSV ekSle foKku vk¡dM+k lalk/ku ra= ¼vkbZ- ,e- Mh- ih- ,l-½ esa balSV ls lh- ,e- oh- izkIr djus dh izpkyukRed ;kstuk esa dqN egRoi.kZ lq/kkj fd, x, ftlls mi;ksxdrkZvksa dks csgrj xq.krk  ds mixzg ls izkIr iou ds vk¡dM+s miyC/k djok, tk ldsaA la’kksf/kr ,yxksfjFe esa xq.krk vk’oklu tk¡p esa ,y- ,- ,e- iwokZuqeku dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA LiSDVªe dh 'khr ifjf/k ij es?kksa  ds dqN izfr’kr ds vkSlr rkieku ds vk/kkj ij nkc vkSj m¡pkbZ;k¡ fu/kkZfjr dh tkrh gSaA balSV vkSj ehfV;kslsV&5 ls izkIr lh- ,e- oh dk foLrkj ls rqyukRed v/;;u fd;k x;k gSA  balSV vkSj ehfV;kslsV-5 ls izkIr ifj"Ñr lh- ,e- oh- ds chp xq.krk ds vk/kkj ij vPNh vuq:irk dk irk pyk gSA vfHkufr vkSj vkj- ,e- ,l esa Hkh lq/kkj gq, gSaA lh- ,e- oh- esa igys izsf{kr {ks=h; iouksa esa Hkh lq/kkj gqvk gSA ehfV;kslsV&5 dh rqyuk esa balSV ls izkIr lh- ,e- oh- dh de la[;k dk dkj.k balSV jsfM;ksehVj dk fuEu LFkkfud foHksnu gSA fp=ksa ds f=d ls rS;kj lh- ,e- oh- ds nks lSVksa dks lfEefyr fd;k x;k ftlesa nks lSVksa esa LFkkfir lh- ,e- oh- dks 'kkfey ugha djus dk  /;ku j[kk x;k gSA balSV  ls izkIr ifj"Ñr lh- ,e- oh- ls ekWMy }kjk fd, tkus okys iwokZuqeku ij ldkjkRed izHkko iMk gSA Earlier Quality Assurance (QA) tests of INSAT derived CMVs were done using low resolution 12 hour forecast from NCEP Washington or ECMWF. These forecasts earlier did not use satellite derived CMVs from INSAT or other satellites from data sparse Indian Ocean. Other centers did not find INSAT CMVs of reliable quality. Before July 1998, no other satellite except INSAT covered the data sparse Indian Ocean. In July 1998, METEOSAT-5 was shifted over Indian Ocean at 63 degree East. Certain vital changes have been incorporated in the operational scheme of INSAT CMVs derivation at INSAT Meteorological Data Processing System (IMDPS) for providing satellite derived winds of improved quality to the users. The modified algorithm uses LAM forecast in QA tests. Pressures and heights are assigned on the basis of mean temperature of certain percentage of cloud population at the cold end of the spectrum. Detailed comparison of CMVs from INSAT and METEOSAT-5 has been done. The improved CMVs from INSAT and METEOSAT-5 show quite good agreement qualitatively.  The bias and RMS also show improvements. Zonal winds observed earlier in CMVs have shown improvement. The lesser number of INSAT CMVs is due to lower spatial resolution of INSAT radiometer compared to METEOSAT-5. The two sets of CMVs generated from triplet of images are being combined, taking care of excluding the collocated CMVs in the two sets. The improved INSAT derived CMVs have shown positive impact on the Model forecast.

Nazistowski mord na Żydach w prasie polskich komunistów (1942–1944).

2006 ◽  
pp. 54-75
Author(s):  
Klaus Peter Friedrich
Keyword(s):  
Shared Responsibility ◽  
The Political ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War ◽  
Polish Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Political Right

Facing the decisive struggle between Nazism and Soviet communism for dominance in Europe, in 1942/43 Polish communists sojourning in the USSR espoused anti-German concepts of the political right. Their aim was an ethnic Polish ‘national communism’. Meanwhile, the Polish Workers’ Party in the occupied country advocated a maximum intensification of civilian resistance and partisan struggle. In this context, commentaries on the Nazi judeocide were an important element in their endeavors to influence the prevailing mood in the country: The underground communist press often pointed to the fate of the murdered Jews as a warning in order to make it clear to the Polish population where a deficient lack of resistance could lead. However, an agreed, unconditional Polish and Jewish armed resistance did not come about. At the same time, the communist press constantly expanded its demagogic confrontation with Polish “reactionaries” and accused them of shared responsibility for the Nazi murder of the Jews, while the Polish government (in London) was attacked for its failure. This antagonism was intensified in the fierce dispute between the Polish and Soviet governments after the rift which followed revelations about the Katyn massacre. Now the communist propaganda image of the enemy came to the fore in respect to the government and its representatives in occupied Poland. It viewed the government-in-exile as being allied with the “reactionaries,” indifferent to the murder of the Jews, and thus acting ultimately on behalf of Nazi German policy. The communists denounced the real and supposed antisemitism of their adversaries more and more bluntly. In view of their political isolation, they coupled them together, in an undifferentiated manner, extending from the right-wing radical ONR to the social democrats and the other parties represented in the underground parliament loyal to the London based Polish government. Thereby communist propaganda tried to discredit their opponents and to justify the need for a new start in a post-war Poland whose fate should be shaped by the revolutionary left. They were thus paving the way for the ultimate communist takeover

The Politics of Repressed Guilt

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Leeb
Keyword(s):  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
National Socialist ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Critical Scholarship ◽  
Important Addition ◽  
Defensive Mechanisms ◽  
The Right

Through a critical appropriation of Hannah Arendt, and a more sympathetic engagement with Theodor W. Adorno and psychoanalysis, this book develops a new theoretical approach to understanding Austrians’ repression of their collaboration with National Socialist Germany. Drawing on original, extensive archival research, from court documents on Nazi perpetrators to public controversies on theater plays and museums, the book exposes the defensive mechanisms Austrians have used to repress individual and collective political guilt, which led to their failure to work through their past. It exposes the damaging psychological and political consequences such failure has had and continues to have for Austrian democracy today—such as the continuing electoral growth of the right-wing populist Freedom Party in Austria, which highlights the timeliness of the book. However, the theoretical concepts and practical suggestions the book introduces to counteract the repression of individual and collective political guilt are relevant beyond the Austrian context. It shows us that only when individuals and nations live up to guilt are they in a position to take responsibility for past crimes, show solidarity with the victims of crimes, and prevent the emergence of new crimes. Combining theoretical insights with historical analysis, The Politics of Repressed Guilt is an important addition to critical scholarship that explores the pathological implications of guilt repression for democratic political life.

Jewish Question in the Ideology and Political Practice of Russian Monarchists in the Beginning of the 20th Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 232-261
Author(s):  
Igor V. Omeliyanchuk
Keyword(s):  
Jewish Population ◽  
Jewish Question ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Anti Semitism ◽  
The First World War ◽  
The Russian Empire ◽  
The Right ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
First World

The present article examines the place of the Jewish question in the ideology of the monarchist (right-wing, “black hundred”) parties. In spite of certain ideological differences in the right-wing camp (moderate Rights, Rights and extreme Right-Wing), anti-Semitism was characteristic of all monarchist parties to a certain extent, in any case before the First World War. That fact was reflected in the party documents, resolutions of the monarchist congresses, publications and speeches of the Right-Wing leaders. The suggestions of the monarchists in solving the Jewish questions added up to the preservation and strengthening of the existing restrictions with respect to the Jewish population in the Russian Empire. If in the beginning the restrictions were main in the economic, cultural and everyday life spheres, after the convocation of the State Duma the Rights strived after limiting also the political rights of the Jewish population of the Empire, seeing it as one of the primary guarantees for autocracy preservation in Russia, that was the main political goal of the conservatives.

Main Forms of Propagandistic Activities of the Right-Wing Parties (1904–1914)

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 656-676
Author(s):  
Igor V. Omeliyanchuk
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Periodical Press ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
The People ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Right ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
The 19Th Century

The article examines the main forms and methods of agitation and propagandistic activities of monarchic parties in Russia in the beginning of the 20th century. Among them the author singles out such ones as periodical press, publication of books, brochures and flyers, organization of manifestations, religious processions, public prayers and funeral services, sending deputations to the monarch, organization of public lectures and readings for the people, as well as various philanthropic events. Using various forms of propagandistic activities the monarchists aspired to embrace all social groups and classes of the population in order to organize all-class and all-estate political movement in support of the autocracy. While they gained certain success in promoting their ideology, the Rights, nevertheless, lost to their adversaries from the radical opposition camp, as the monarchists constrained by their conservative ideology, could not promise immediate social and political changes to the population, and that fact was excessively used by their opponents. Moreover, the ideological paradigm of the Right camp expressed in the “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, Nationality” formula no longer agreed with the social and economic realities of Russia due to modernization processes that were underway in the country from the middle of the 19th century.

Modeling of mass transfer in biofilms in oscillatory flow conditions using k-ɛ turbulence model

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 201-207
Author(s):  
H. Nagaoka ◽  
T. Nakano ◽  
D. Akimoto
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mass Transfer ◽  
Turbulence Model ◽  
Uptake Rate ◽  
Oscillatory Flow ◽  
Substrate Uptake ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Mass Transfer Mechanism ◽  
Substrate Uptake Rate ◽  
Good Agreement

The objective of this research is to investigate mass transfer mechanism in biofilms under oscillatory flow conditions. Numerical simulation of turbulence near a biofilm was conducted using the low Reynold’s number k-ɛ turbulence model. Substrate transfer in biofilms under oscillatory flow conditions was assumed to be carried out by turbulent diffusion caused by fluid movement and substrate concentration profile in biofilm was calculated. An experiment was carried out to measure velocity profile near a biofilm under oscillatory flow conditions and the influence of the turbulence on substrate uptake rate by the biofilm was also measured. Measured turbulence was in good agreement with the calculated one and the influence of the turbulence on the substrate uptake rate was well explained by the simulation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document