scholarly journals Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Yiou ◽  
K. Goubanova ◽  
Z. X. Li ◽  
M. Nogaj

Abstract. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a useful tool to describe the statistical properties of extreme events. Its underlying assumptions include some form of temporal stationarity in the data. Previous studies have been able to treat long-term trends in datasets, to obtain the time dependence of EVT parameters in a parametric form. Since there is also a dependence of surface temperature and precipitation to weather patterns obtained from pressure data, we determine the EVT parameters of those meteorological variables over France conditional to the occurrence of North Atlantic weather patterns in the summer. We use a clustering algorithm on geopotential height data over the North Atlantic to obtain those patterns. This approach refines the straightforward application of EVT on climate data by allowing us to assess the role of atmospheric variability on temperature and precipitation extreme parameters. This study also investigates the statistical robustness of this relation. Our results show how weather regimes can modulate the different behavior of mean climate variables and their extremes. Such a modulation can be very different for the mean and extreme precipitation.

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 911-936 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. S. R. Pausata ◽  
C. Li ◽  
J. J. Wettstein ◽  
K. H. Nisancioglu ◽  
D. S. Battisti

Abstract. We investigate sea level pressure variability in the extratropical North Atlantic in the preindustrial climate (1750 A.D.) and at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyr before present) using four climate models. In general, the models exhibit a significant reduction in interannual variance of sea level pressure during the LGM compared to pre-industrial simulations and this reduction is concentrated in winter. For the preindustrial climate, all the models feature a similar leading mode (EOF) of sea level pressure variability that is also similar to the leading mode of variability in the instrumental record: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In contrast, the leading mode of sea level pressure variability during the LGM is model dependent, but in each model different from that in the preindustrial climate. In each model, the leading (NAO-like) mode of variability explains a smaller fraction of the variance and also less absolute variance in the LGM than in the preindustrial. The leading (NAO-like) mode of sea level pressure variability is shifted southward in the LGM simulations relative to the preindustrial simulations. Finally, we correlate the leading mode of sea level pressure variability with surface temperature and precipitation within each model and for the two time periods. In the preindustrial climate, the leading mode of sea level pressure variability is similar from model to model and the temperature and precipitation correlation patterns are also similar. In contrast, since the models find different dominant modes of sea level pressure variability for the LGM climate, they also disagree on the associated patterns of temperature and precipitation variability. Assuming stationarity of the relationship between surface climate and the leading mode of sea level pressure variability could lead to a misinterpretation of signals recorded in proxy data.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3177-3192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terrence M. Joyce ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
Lisan Yu

Abstract Coherent, large-scale shifts in the paths of the Gulf Stream (GS) and the Kuroshio Extension (KE) occur on interannual to decadal time scales. Attention has usually been drawn to causes for these shifts in the overlying atmosphere, with some built-in delay of up to a few years resulting from propagation of wind-forced variability within the ocean. However, these shifts in the latitudes of separated western boundary currents can cause substantial changes in SST, which may influence the synoptic atmospheric variability with little or no time delay. Various measures of wintertime atmospheric variability in the synoptic band (2–8 days) are examined using a relatively new dataset for air–sea exchange [Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes (OAFlux)] and subsurface temperature indices of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio path that are insulated from direct air–sea exchange, and therefore are preferable to SST. Significant changes are found in the atmospheric variability following changes in the paths of these currents, sometimes in a local fashion such as meridional shifts in measures of local storm tracks, and sometimes in nonlocal, broad regions coincident with and downstream of the oceanic forcing. Differences between the North Pacific (KE) and North Atlantic (GS) may be partly related to the more zonal orientation of the KE and the stronger SST signals of the GS, but could also be due to differences in mean storm-track characteristics over the North Pacific and North Atlantic.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Vyshkvarkova ◽  
Olga Sukhonos

Abstract The spatial distribution of compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation was studied over the territory of Eastern Europe for the period 1950–2018 during winter and spring. Using daily data on air temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the four indices – cold/dry, cold/wet, warm/dry and warm/wet. Also, we studying the connection between these indices and large-scale processes in the ocean-atmosphere system such as North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian Oscillation. The results have shown that positive trends in the region are typical of the combinations with the temperatures above the 75th percentile, i.e., the warm extremes in winter and spring. Negative trends were obtained for the cold extremes. Statistically significant increase in the number of days with warm extremes was observed in the northern parts of the region in winter and spring. The analysis of the impacts of the large-scale processes in oceans-atmosphere system showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation index has a strong positive and statistically significant correlation with the warm indices of compound extremes in the northern part of Eastern Europe in winter, while the Scandinavian Oscillation shows the opposite picture.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bassem Jalali ◽  
Marie-Alexandrine Sicre ◽  
Julien Azuara ◽  
Violaine Pellichero ◽  
Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout

Abstract. The 4.2 ka BP event, spanning from ca 4200 to 3900 cal BP, has been documented in numerous archaeological data and continental archives across the Northern Hemisphere as an abrupt shift to dry and cold climate. However, data on synchronous ocean circulation changes are notably lacking, thus preventing us from getting a full insight into the physical mechanisms responsible for this climate deterioration. Here, we present two high-resolution (5–20 years) sea surface temperature (SST) records from the subpolar gyre and off north Iceland in the vicinity of the polar front obtained from alkenone paleo-thermometry and compare them with proxy data from the western Mediterranean Sea to gain information on regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Our results are evidence of a temperature dipole pattern which, combined with other paleo-oceanographic records of the North Atlantic, suggests a weakening of the subpolar gyre possibly associated with atmospheric blocked regimes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 490 (2) ◽  
pp. 1879-1893
Author(s):  
Tiago F P Gomes ◽  
Erico L Rempel ◽  
Fernando M Ramos ◽  
Suzana S A Silva ◽  
Pablo R Muñoz

ABSTRACT This article provides observational evidence for the direct relation between current sheets, multifractality and fully developed turbulence in the solar wind. In order to study the role of current sheets in extreme-value statistics in the solar wind, the use of magnetic volatility is proposed. The statistical fits of extreme events are based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) modelling of Cluster 1 magnetic field data. The results reveal that current sheets are the main factor responsible for the behaviour of the tail of the magnetic volatility distributions. In the presence of current sheets, the distributions display a positive shape parameter, which means that the distribution is unbounded in the right tail. Thus the appearance of larger current sheets is to be expected and magnetic reconnection events are more likely to occur. The volatility analysis confirms that current sheets are responsible for the −5/3 Kolmogorov power spectra and the increase in multifractality and non-Gaussianity in solar wind statistics. In the absence of current sheets, the power spectra display a −3/2 Iroshnikov–Kraichnan law. The implications of these findings for the understanding of intermittent turbulence in the solar wind are discussed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josué M. Polanco-Martínez ◽  
Javier Fernández-Macho ◽  
Martín Medina-Elizalde

AbstractThe wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) is introduced for the first time in the study of climate dynamics inferred from multivariate climate time series. To exemplify the use of WLMC with real climate data, we analyse Last Millennium (LM) relationships among several large-scale reconstructed climate variables characterizing North Atlantic: i.e. sea surface temperatures (SST) from the tropical cyclone main developmental region (MDR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and tropical cyclone counts (TC). We examine the former three large-scale variables because they are known to influence North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and because their underlying drivers are still under investigation. WLMC results obtained for these multivariate climate time series suggest that: (1) MDRSST and AMO show the highest correlation with each other and with respect to the TC record over the last millennium, and: (2) MDRSST is the dominant climate variable that explains TC temporal variability. WLMC results confirm that this method is able to capture the most fundamental information contained in multivariate climate time series and is suitable to investigate correlation among climate time series in a multivariate context.


2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 763-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Hoon Kim ◽  
William N. Chan ◽  
Banavar Sridhar ◽  
Robert D. Sharman ◽  
Paul D. Williams ◽  
...  

AbstractThe variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment.


2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 2421-2439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene R. Langehaug ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Odd Helge Otterå

Abstract In the present study the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre (SPG) in a 600-yr preindustrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model is investigated. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflows from the Nordic seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std dev) of the total overflow (1 std dev = 0.2 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) corresponds to an intensification of about one-half std dev of the SPG strength (1 std dev = 2 Sv). A similar response is found for an increase of one std dev in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one-half std dev (1 std dev = 0.9 Sv).


1997 ◽  
Vol 78 (5s) ◽  
pp. S1-S50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Halpert ◽  
Gerald D. Bell

The climate of 1996 can be characterized by several phenomena that reflect substantial deviations from the mean state of the atmosphere persisting from months to seasons. First, mature cold-episode conditions persisted across the tropical Pacific from November 1995 through May 1996 and contributed to large-scale anomalies of atmospheric circulation, temperature, and precipitation across the Tropics, the North Pacific and North America. These anomalies were in many respects opposite to those that had prevailed during the past several years in association with a prolonged period of tropical Pacific warm-episode conditions (ENSO). Second, strong tropical intraseasonal (Madden–Julian oscillations) activity was observed during most of the year. The impact of these oscillations on extratropical circulation variability was most evident late in the year in association with strong variations in the eastward extent of the East Asian jet and in the attendant downstream circulation, temperature, and precipitation patterns over the eastern North Pacific and central North America. Third, a return to the strong negative phase of the atmospheric North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during November 1995–February 1996, following a nearly continuous 15-yr period of positive-phase NAO conditions, played a critical role in affecting temperature and precipitation patterns across the North Atlantic, Eurasia, and northern Africa. The NAO also contributed to a significant decrease in wintertime temperatures across large portions of Siberia and northern Russia from those that had prevailed during much of the 1980s and early 1990s. Other regional aspects of the short-term climate during 1996 included severe drought across the southwestern United States and southern plains states during October 1995–May 1996, flooding in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States during the 1995/96 and 1996/97 winters, a cold and extremely snowy 1995/96 winter in the eastern United States, a second consecutive year of above-normal North Atlantic hurricane activity, near-normal rains in the African Sahel, above-normal rainfall across southeastern Africa during October 1995–April 1996, above-normal precipitation for most of the year across eastern and southeastern Australia following severe drought in these areas during 1995, and generally nearnormal monsoonal rains in India with significantly below-normal rainfall in Bangladesh and western Burma. The global annual mean surface temperature for land and marine areas during 1996 averaged 0.21°C above the 1961–90 base period means. This is a decrease of 0.19°C from the record warm year of 1995 but was still among the 10 highest values observed since 1860. The global land-only temperature for 1996 was 0.06°C above normal and was the lowest anomaly observed since 1985 (−0.11°C). Much of this relative decrease in global temperatures occurred in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, where land-only temperatures dropped from 0.42°C above normal in 1995 to 0.04°C below normal in 1996. The year also witnessed a continuation of near-record low ozone amounts in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, along with an abnormally prolonged appearance of the “ozone hole” into early December. The areal extent of the ozone hole in November and early December exceeded that previously observed for any such period on record. However, its areal extent at peak amplitude during late September–early October was near that observed during the past several years.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document