scholarly journals Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor

Author(s):  
M. J. Polo ◽  
C. Aguilar ◽  
A. Millares ◽  
J. Herrero ◽  
R. Gómez-Beas ◽  
...  

Abstract. Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
J. J. Vasconcelos

Hater resource managers in semi-arid regions are faced with some unique problems. The wide variations in precipitation and stream flows in semi-arid regions increase man's dependence on the ground water resource for an ample and reliable supply of water. Proper management of the ground water resource is absolutely essential to the economic well being of semi-arid regions. Historians have discovered the remains of vanished advanced civilizations based on irrigated agriculture which were ignorant of the importance of proper ground water resource management. In the United States a great deal of effort is presently being expended in the study and control of toxic discharges to the ground water resource. What many public policy makers fail to understand is that the potential loss to society resulting from the mineralization of the ground water resource is potentially much greater than the loss caused by toxic wastes discharges, particularly in developing countries. Appropriations for ground water resource management studies in developed countries such as the United States are presently much less than those for toxic wastes management and should be increased. It is the reponsibility of the water resource professional to emphasize to public policy makers the importance of ground water resource management. Applications of ground water resource management models in the semi-arid Central Valley of California are presented. The results demonstrate the need for proper ground water resource management practices in semi-arid regions and the use of ground water management models as a valuable tool for the water resource manager.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1869-1884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire L. Walsh ◽  
Stephen Blenkinsop ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Aidan Burton ◽  
Richard J. Dawson ◽  
...  

Abstract. Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence, a portfolio of measures is required.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Jiang ◽  
Han ◽  
Gao ◽  
He ◽  
...  

As water security becomes an increasingly important issue, the analysis of the conflict between water supply and demand has gained significance in China. This paper details a bibliometric review of papers published between 2003 and 2018 on the water footprint in China, one of the global hotspots of water resource research. The tendencies and key points of water footprint research were systematically analyzed based on 1564 articles, comprising 1170 original publications in Chinese from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database and 394 publications in English from the Web of Science database. The results show that the literature associated with water footprint research has expanded significantly. The number of papers published increased from 104 in 2003–2006 to 735 in 2015–2018. Water footprint research has been applied to agricultural, industrial, and regional water resource management to quantify the impact of human activities on water resources and the environment. Water footprint metrics were extracted for regional comparisons. There are obvious regional characteristics of the water footprint in China, but the uncertainty of results makes further investigation necessary. Further water footprint modeling and field experimental research is needed to explore the water–ecological environment under complex systems.


Water Policy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 510-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huan Liu ◽  
Yangwen Jia ◽  
Cunwen Niu ◽  
Yongde Gan ◽  
Fei Xu

Abstract Water security is the basis of sustainable human development. A new evaluation system of water security was established based on the natural–social dualistic water cycle theory, and then applied to characterize water security issues in China. At the national scale, the current state of water security was moderate, which was attributed to the improvement of water resource management level. However, it is still seriously inadequate in coordination of water use between ecological protection and socio-economic development, and wastewater treatment and reuse. Consequently, a resilient and integrated water management with adaptive capacity is needed. Moreover, the water security state in southern China was better than that in northern China, which was mainly attributed to the abundance of water resources in the south. Although the critical factors hindering water security were significantly different among China's 31 administrative regions, the low urban sewage reuse rate was a common factor, and irrigation efficiency was low in most parts of southern China. While in northern China, water resource overexploitation, polluted water quality and degraded aquatic ecosystems were common challenges. The results are consistent with the actual situations of China, and the related analysis can provide a reference for increasing regional water security.


Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1545
Author(s):  
Lei Jin ◽  
Haiyan Fu ◽  
Younggy Kim ◽  
Jiangxue Long ◽  
Guohe Huang

In realistic water resource planning, fuzzy constraints can be violated but still allowed to certain acceptance degrees. To address this issue, in this study, a bi-objective pseudo-interval type 2 (T2) linear programming approach with a ranking order relation between the intervals is proposed for water system allocation. This developed approach can transform normal T2 fuzzy sets, including both trapezoidal and triangular types, into the bi-objective linear programming approach solved with the proposed algorithm with mathematical rigor, which improves the flexibility of the decision supports. The new model is applied in the utilization of regional water resource management in Xiamen city, China. Concurrently, a local water system model is established by considering the aspects of industrial, agricultural, and municipal requirements. Thus, by analysis of the solution algorithm, decision-makers can obtain different optimal results by selecting different acceptance degrees. The results also demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. Therefore, this approach not only augments the theory of the optimal allocation method in water resource management, but also provides the support for meeting the requirements of the 13th five-year plan for Xiamen ecological planning.


Processes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongchang Miao ◽  
Donglin Li ◽  
Qiting Zuo ◽  
Lei Yu ◽  
Xiaoxia Fei ◽  
...  

Discrepancies between water demand and supply are intensifying and creating a need for sustainable water resource process management associated with rapid economic development, population growth, and urban expansion. In this study, a scenario-based interval fuzzy-credibility constrained programming (SIFCP) method is developed for planning a water resource management system (WRMS) that can handle uncertain information by using interval values, fuzzy sets, and scenario analysis. The SIFCP-WRMS model is then applied to plan the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in Henan Province, China. Solutions of different water distribution proportion scenarios and varied credibility levels are considered. Results reveal that different water-distribution proportion scenarios and uncertainties used in the SIFCP-WRMS model can lead to changed water allocations, sewage discharges, chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions, and system benefits. Results also indicate that the variation of scenarios (i.e., from S2 to S3) can result in a change of 9% over the planning horizon for water allocation in the industrial sector. Findings can help decision-makers resolve conflicts among economic objective, water resource demand, and sewage discharge, as well as COD emissions.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-87
Author(s):  
M. Esterhuizen ◽  
L. de Jager ◽  
W. A. Jezewski

Abstract In 2012, the South African Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) initiated a study: Continuation of the Northern Planning Region's All Towns Reconciliation Strategies: Phase 1. This study reviewed, prioritised and updated the rudimentary All Towns strategies initially developed by DWS in 2011. The purpose of the strategies was to reconcile water requirements with available resources for the 2011–2035 planning horizon by estimating the projected water requirements, determining available water resources (surface and groundwater) and developing a water balance. Recommendations were made to conserve, manage and administer local water sources as well as to augment water supplies from other sources if required. The recommendations provided actions and options for implementation by the relevant Water Services Authorities and the DWS at a local and regional level, providing the opportunity for integrated and coordinated planning. Bulk and reticulation metering, the implementation of water conservation and demand management programmes and recommendations on the updating of water use allocations were prioritised. Detailed studies required to determine the most feasible water resource augmentation options to ensure a positive water balance were identified. The study coordinated efforts by officials and stakeholders representing both the water resources and water services sectors. The prioritised strategies defined the deficit or surplus of the water resources per water source on a technical level, but also highlighted the need for planning and coordination between the water resources and water services sectors. The strategies are not legally mandated documents, but represent some of the best efforts spanning across various sectors to realise coordinated water infrastructure planning in DWS’ Northern Planning Region. The use of the documents in the local, district and national planning environments should be promoted for integrated planning, and it may be fitting to incorporate the All Towns Reconciliation Strategy documents as a valuable resource to inform the water legislation currently being reviewed.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document