scholarly journals PHASE REARRANGEMENT IN LOCAL BALANCED HYDROGEOCHEMICAL SYSTEMS AS A OF FLUID EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS MECHANISM OCCURRENCE

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (33) ◽  
pp. 248-258
Author(s):  
A. U. ABDULLAEV
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Structural Relaxation ◽  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Major Earthquake ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Internal Phase ◽  
The World ◽  
Precursors Of Earthquakes ◽  
Hydrogeochemical System

Scientists all over the world are making tremendous efforts to solve the problem of earthquake prediction. Dozens of different phenomena and signs that could serve as precursors of earthquakes are found. But these effects were very unstable and had a mosaic character in the propagation of development and time. They appeared not always and not before every major earthquake. There are many cases where earthquakes occurred without the manifestation of any precursors. Such non-stationary phenomena do not allow formulating adequate strong earthquakes preparing models and their methods of predicting. Among well-studied and encouraging earthquake precursors, hydrogeodynamic and hydrogeochemical anomalies are considered to be the most promising, which has a sufficiently substantiated scientific background. In this class of precursors, the mechanism of their formation during the preparation of earthquakes remains debatable. There are several problems due to abnormal concentration sources and their transport during a little time period in the observation points. In the proposed work, it is proved that the main mechanism of the occurrence of exotic transient fluid anomalies is the interphase rearrangement in the local balanced hydrogeochemical system as a reaction to strong earthquakes factors preparing influence. The internal phase reorganization in the hydrogeochemical system is realized through structural relaxation as a result of the occurrence of rapid physicochemical reactions exchange.

scholarly journals Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Z. Li ◽  
Z. Q. Bai ◽  
W. S. Chen ◽  
Y. Q. Xia ◽  
Y. R. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Frequency Range ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Innovative Methods ◽  
The World ◽  
Infrasonic Wave

Abstract. The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.

DAYA SAING EKSPOR KARET ALAM TIGA NEGARA ITRC (INDONESIA, THAILAND, MALAYSIA) DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL PERIODE 1994-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
Shinta Dwi Ardanari ◽  
Rynalto Mukiwihando
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
International Market ◽  
World Market ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Export Share ◽  
Intense Competition ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

ABSTRACTShare of Indonesia's export value of natural rubber in the international market is almost always below Thailand, which is one of the competiting countries. The others countries began to become a threat to Indonesia because their exports share of natural rubber showed an increasing. This indicates that there is intense competition in the international market. As a country with the largest plantation area in the world, Indonesia should be superior. But this can be an opportunity to be able to compete in the world market so it is important to be managed more deeply so that it can create competitive advantages that can increase competitiveness. This study aims to determine the position of the competitiveness of natural rubber exports for the three countries of ITRC in the international market. The analytical method used is dynamic RCA. The results showed that all products of natural rubber coded HS 400110, 400121, 400122, 400129 and 400130 were experiencing a decline in growth in the export share of the three countries of ITRC : Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, but the market demand conditions for these products were declining in that time period.

The Relationship between China's Export-led Growth and Its Double Transition of Demographic Change and Industrialization

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yao
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
World Market ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Double Transition ◽  
The World ◽  
New Thinking ◽  
The Relationship

China's export-led growth is rooted in China's double transition of demographic transition and structural change from industrialization. Accession to the WTO has allowed China to fully integrate into the world system and capture the gains of its comparative advantage in abundant labor supply. Structural change has a dampening effect on the Balassa–Samuelson effect so as to sustain China's competiveness in the world market. The double transition will take 10 to 15 years to finish; in this time period, China will likely continue its fast export-led growth. Along the way, export-led growth has also created serious structural imbalances highlighted by underutilized savings, slow growth of residential income and domestic consumption, and a heavy reliance on investment. This linkage requires new thinking when global imbalances are to be tackled.

scholarly journals ART IN THE ERA OF CHANGE AND CHANGE IN ART

2020 ◽  
pp. 296-306
Author(s):  
L. D. Gerasimova ◽  
◽  
M. Yu. Sapunova ◽  
G. L. Rahubenko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Culture ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Market Needs ◽  
Individual Human

The article examines and analyzes the changes in the world of culture and art that have involved the postmodernism era, which arose during a period of rapidly changing moods in society, which accept the appearance of culture, but are absolutely alien and ugly, bearing the decline and destruction. Art, which is a kind of mark of the epoch and a reflection of morality, established stereotypes, and lifestyle, has experienced many revolutionary trends caused by the demand of a particular time period. In modernculture, there is a negative trend in the development of artistic, literary, and cinematic production, everything is oriented to the market needs. Canons are being collapsed, content is being simplified, and technologies are being violated. Culture and art began to meet individual human needs, acquired a commercial character and became subject to the influence of the customer and the consumer.What is a "mass" culture? How much does the understanding of art depend on a person's wealth and education? For whom is culture now intelligible? How does the society standard of living influence culture and art in general?

scholarly journals Comparative analysis of efficiency of democracy in Ukraine according to the indices of democracy The Economist Democracy Index, Freedom In the World and Polity IV

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 78-92
Author(s):  
Kateryna Fedoryshynа
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Integral Point ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Executive Power ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Final Score ◽  
Legal Restrictions

This article represents an analysis of efficiency of Ukrainian democracy within the framework of three popural indices of democracy – The Economist Democracy Index, Freedom In the World index and Polity IV. Comparative analysis shows the core factors which bring three different democratic concepts, used in the indices, to the integral unity. Finding correlation between factors of Ukrainian democracy, measured in the indices through a certain time period (2006-2018), helps getting integral look at the problem of non existent universal theoretic base for understanding democracy. The basic idea of the analysis, represented in this article, shows that different factors, used by indices in measuring democracy, do not evenly correlate in practice, though they represent holistic approach to the essence of democracy. Choosing specific theoretical approach of understanding democracy makes it hard for indices to fully measure real democracy. This analysis aims at searching correlation in different basic factors of democratic models, used by indices with different approaches. As the result of the analysis the article ranks a number of basic factors, used in three popular indices of democracy, according to the strength of correlation of these factors with other factors of the index they represent and with the final score of the index. Integral choice of the basic factors, which correlate with the change of Ukraine’s democratic trends according to the three indices, covers several dimensions of democratic model. Ukrainian democratic trends in the specific time period (2006-2018), as the analysis shows, from integral point of view correlates the most with the changes in electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties and legal restrictions of the executive power. Political culture, political participation and individual rights show weak correlation with Ukrainian democratic trends within the period of time, chosen for the analysis.

scholarly journals How to Avoid Black Markets for Appointments with Online Booking Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (7) ◽  
pp. 2127-2151
Author(s):  
Rustamdjan Hakimov ◽  
C.-Philipp Heller ◽  
Dorothea Kübler ◽  
Morimitsu Kurino
Keyword(s):  
Market Design ◽  
Current System ◽  
Black Markets ◽  
High Demand ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Batch System ◽  
Lab Experiments ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

Allocating appointment slots is presented as a new application for market design. Online booking systems are commonly used by public authorities to allocate appointments for visa interviews, driver’s licenses, passport renewals, etc. We document that black markets for appointments have developed in many parts of the world. Scalpers book the appointments that are offered for free and sell the slots to appointment seekers. We model the existing first-come-first-served booking system and propose an alternative batch system. The batch system collects applications for slots over a certain time period and then randomly allocates slots to applicants. The theory predicts and lab experiments confirm that scalpers profitably book and sell slots under the current system with sufficiently high demand, but that they are not active in the proposed batch system. We discuss practical issues for the implementation of the batch system and its applicability to other markets with scalping. (JEL C92, D47)

scholarly journals On the existence of earthquake precursors

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Evison
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Formal Testing ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Experimental Stage

Earthquake prediction based on precursors can aim to provide fully quantified, time-varying, synoptic forecasts, which do not depart from physical and geological principles, and are amenable to formal testing. These features are in contrast to the traditional occultist or soothsayer style of prediction. The recently-advanced, pre-emptive hypothesis that earthquakes are intrinsically unpredictable, and precursors non-existent, is also amenable to testing: it is refuted by the well-known relations between mainshocks and aftershocks. These relations show that a set of aftershocks is to a high degree predictable from the mainshock, so that, as a matter of principle, the mainshock is a precursor to its aftershocks. This result is compatible with the power-law property of seismicity, on which the unpredictability hypothesis is based. Empirical research on most precursors is difficult because of the scarcity of data, and is still largely at the anecdotal stage. Additional difficulties at the experimental stage are exemplified by the failure of the Tokai and Parkfield experiments to advance the study of precursors as planned. A comparative abundance of data is available on seismicity anomalies, and research on this type of precursor is progressing towards the operational stage.

scholarly journals On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

1997 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Gorshkov ◽  
V. I. Keilis-Borok ◽  
I. M. Rotwain ◽  
A. A. Soloviev ◽  
I. A. Vorobieva
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Block Structure ◽  
Seismicity Patterns ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Structure Dynamics ◽  
Prediction Algorithms ◽  
The Media

The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones.

scholarly journals Clinical audit on possible causes of hospital initiated clinic cancellations and recommendation to improve the service

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S324-S324
Author(s):  
Tanzida Haque ◽  
Mosab Mohammed Jodat Ibrahim ◽  
Bapu Ravindranath
Keyword(s):  
Inner City ◽  
Clinical Audit ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Junior Doctors ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Cancellation Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Patient Appointment ◽  
Training Opportunities ◽  
Changeover Period

AimsThe aim of this audit is to explore the possible causes of clinic cancellation in an inner city CMHT and the recommendation to reduce the burden.BackgroundCancellations of planned appointments have been a major and long-standing problem for healthcare organisations across the world. It represents a significant loss of revenue and waste of resources, have significant psychological, social and financial implications for patients and their families and represent a significant loss of training opportunities for trainees. Re-scheduling appointment is one of the major issues of inconvenience to the patients. It also increases workload for the patient appointment team.MethodData have been collected retrospectively from patient appointment booking team regarding clinic cancellation with causes of cancellation recorded in the system (01/07/2019–30/09/2019). The investigators have investigated if the cancellation has been made when it was absolutely necessary to cancel the clinic (Unavailability of doctors due to leave/on calls) and if patients have been informed at least 8 weeks prior to the appointed clinic as per trust protocol.ResultTotal number of 193 clinics were booked at the CMHT from July 2019 – September 2019. About 54% clinics were cancelled during the time period. The Clinic Cancellation rate was higher in September (68%) and was lowest in August (30.30%). As the month of July is the changeover period for trainees, the number of clinics booked during August was relatively less than normal. 72% clinics were cancelled by junior doctors and 28% clinics were cancelled by consultants at the CMHT. The major cause of clinic cancellation was unavailability of the junior doctors due to on call (31.58%) which was not communicated to the patient appointment booking team. Due to annual leave, 25% clinics were cancelled and 21% clinics were cancelled due to study leave. In both cases it is evident that, lack of communication between clinicians and patient appointment team are primarily responsible for hospital-initiated clinic cancellations. As per Patient Appointment booking team, around 50% cases, patients were informed 8 weeks in advance before cancelling the clinics.ConclusionThis is evident from this audit that the number of hospital-initiated clinic cancellations can be reduced by improving communication between Patient Appointment booking service, Medical staffing department and clinicians. The findings of the audit have been shared locally with CMHT managers, clinicians and with the patient appointment booking team.

scholarly journals Time in the Upaniṣads

Religions ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Signe Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Vedic Ritual ◽  
Scholarly Literature ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Cyclical Time ◽  
The World ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Ways Of Thinking ◽  
Transitional Time

The Upaniṣads (ca. 800 BCE) were composed during a transitional time period in Hinduism when Vedic ritual and cosmogonic ideas began to give way to new worldviews. The intriguing Upaniṣadic notions of time have received little attention in the scholarly literature compared to the elaborate models of cyclical time that develop in later texts. I propose, however, that the Upaniṣads represent a seminal reorientation in Hindu conceptions of time. We still find an older view of time in the Upaniṣads as something that marks the rhythms of the ritual year, but later Upaniṣadic texts begin to explore entirely new ways of thinking about time. I propose that the movement away from the more integrated view of the material and immaterial as one reality in the Vedas towards a radical dualism between the spiritual and the material in later Hindu thought informs many of the new ideas of time that emerge in the Upaniṣads, including that of time as an abstract construct. The authors of the Upaniṣads investigate—and ultimately reject—the notion of time itself as the cause of the visible world, ponder the idea that time is something that is created by a divine being in order to structure the world, speculate that time may be a mere intellectual construct, and postulate that the highest reality may be situated in a realm that is outside of time altogether.

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