scholarly journals Another deficient monsoon 2004 - A comparison with drought year 2002 and possible causes

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI ◽  
S. R. KALSI ◽  
H. R. HATWAR ◽  
S. K. SUBRAMANIAN

The rainfall over India as a whole during the summer monsoon season of 2004 was deficient with –13% below normal. Earlier in 2002, India has faced another worst situation when large-scale drought occurred and all India rainfall was below –19%. In the present study, we have compared briefly salient observational features of both the monsoons to find out their distinct characteristics. Comparisons show appearance of many similar as well as contrasting features. Though, both seasons were deficient, their dates of onset of monsoon over Kerala were either before or near the normal date. Progress up to central India was also normal in both the seasons. While Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) during June was good, a few longest stagnation periods during advancing stage in July of both the years made unexpected delay of monsoon in covering entire India. Rainfall of July also suffered the most in both the seasons with a record lowest ISMR in 2002. Not a single depression formed in 2002 while in 2004, their frequency was less than half of normal. Analysis of other large-scale monthly anomalous ocean and atmospheric conditions over Indo-Pacific region including El-Nino conditions confirms that ENSO and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation or EQUINOO have caused drought in July 2002, but not in July 2004. This is because very high typhoon formation and their recurvature with significantly higher than normal convection over northwest Pacific associated with record lowest ISMR in July, 2002 in contrast to occurrence of deficient ISMR in July 2004 which was associated with few typhoon formation and less convection. Also in 2002, Indian region was happened to fall exactly under the subsidence branch of Walker circulation with ascending branch over the western Pacific in the season in contrast to 2004, when subsidence was observed to be both over large part of western Pacific and adjoining Indian region.

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2569-2595 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Janicot ◽  
C. D. Thorncroft ◽  
A. Ali ◽  
N. Asencio ◽  
G. Berry ◽  
...  

Abstract. The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.


MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-186
Author(s):  
S. K. JADHAV

In the present paper performance of the monthly sub-divisional summer monsoon rainfall is studied in association with the position of the Low Pressure System (LPS) over the Indian region. Existence of the LPS over a particular location increases the rainfall activities in certain parts of the country while decreases in some other parts. For this study, the Indian region (5°-35° N and 60° -100° E) is divided into 5°  Lat. ´ 5° Long. grids. The duration of LPS is taken in terms of LPS days with respect to the location of LPS in a particular grid. Monthly total number of LPS days in each of the grids are computed during the summer monsoon season, June to September for the period 1891 – 1990. Maximum number of LPS days (more than half of the total) are observed in the latitude belt between 20°-25°N. The percentages of total LPS days in this area are higher in July and August which are peak monsoon months as compared to June and September. When there is a LPS are in the area 20°-25° N and 80°-90° E, there is significant increase in the rainfall activities in the sub-divisions along mean monsoon trough while northeast India and southeast peninsular India experience significant decrease in rainfall in the months of July and August. Owing to the movement of LPS from east to west through central India, most parts of the country, excluding northeast India and south peninsular India get good rainfall activity. Correlation coefficients between monthly LPS days over the different grids and monthly sub-divisional rainfall are computed to study the relationships. The performance of sub-divisional rainfall mostly related with the occurrence of LPS in certain grid- locations. The correlation field maps may give some useful information about rainfall performance due to LPS in a particular grid locations.


Author(s):  
Xingang Dai ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Ping Wang

Abstract This paper focuses on Asian monsoon projection with CMIP5 multi-model outputs. A large-scale monsoon herewith is defined as a vector field of vertically integrated moisture flux from the surface to 500 hPa. Results demonstrate that the model ensemble mean underestimated the summer monsoon and overestimated slightly the winter monsoon over South Asia in both CMIP5 historical climate simulation and the monsoon projection for 2006–2015. The major of the bias is the model climate drift (MCD), which is removed in the monsoon projection for 2016–2045 under scenarios RCP4.5 for reducing the uncertainty. The projection shows that two increased moisture flows northward appeared across the Equator of Indian Ocean, the first is nearby Somalia coast toward northwestern part of South Asia, leading to excess rainfall in where the wet jet could reach, and the second starts from the equatorial Sect. (80°E–100°E) toward northeastern Bay of Bengal, leading to more rainfall spreading over the northwestern coast of Indochina Peninsula. In addition, a westward monsoon flow is intensified over the Peninsula leading to local climate moisture transport belt shifted onto South China Sea, which would reduce moisture transport toward Southwest China on one hand, and transport more moisture onto the southeast coast of the China mainland. The anomalous monsoon would result in a dry climate in Northwest China and wet climate in the coast belt during summer monsoon season for the period. Besides, the Asian winter monsoon would be seemingly intensified slightly over South Asia, which would bring a dry winter climate to Indian subcontinent, Northwest China, but would be more rainfall in southeast part of Arabian Peninsula with global climate warming.


2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 1247-1252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anish Kumar M. Nair ◽  
K. Rajeev ◽  
S. Sijikumar ◽  
S. Meenu

Abstract. Using spatial and vertical distributions of clouds derived from multi-year spaceborne observations, this paper presents the characteristics of a significant "pool of inhibited cloudiness" covering an area of >106 km2 between 3–13° N and 77–90° E over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), persisting throughout the Asian summer monsoon season (ASM). Seasonal mean precipitation rate over the "pool" is <3 mm day−1 while that over the surrounding regions is mostly in the range of 6–14 mm day−1. Frequency of occurrence of clouds in this "pool" is ~20–40 % less than that over the surrounding deep convective regions. Zonal and meridional cross sections of the altitude distribution of clouds derived from CloudSat data reveal a vault-like structure at the "pool" with little cloudiness below ~7 km, indicating that this "pool" is almost fully contributed by the substantially reduced or near-absence of low- and middle-level clouds. This suggest the absence of convection in the "pool" region. Spaceborne scatterometer observations show divergence of surface wind at the "pool" and convergence at its surroundings, suggesting the existence of a mini-circulation embedded in the large-scale monsoon circulation. Reanalysis data shows a mini-circulation extending between the surface and ~3 km altitude, but its spatial structure does not match well with that inferred from the above observations. Sea surface at the south BoB during ASM is sufficiently warm to trigger convection, but is inhibited by the subsidence associated with the mini-circulation, resulting in the "pool". This mini-circulation might be a dynamical response of the atmosphere to the substantial spatial gradient of latent heating by large-scale cloudiness and precipitation at the vast and geographically fixed convective zones surrounding the "pool". Subsidence at the "pool" might contribute to the maintenance of convection at the above zones and be an important component of ASM that is overlooked hitherto.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9408-9414 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Abish ◽  
P. V. Joseph ◽  
Ola M. Johannessen

Recent research has reported that the tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) of the boreal summer monsoon season is weakening. The analysis herein using 60 yr (1950–2009) of data reveals that this weakening of the TEJ is due to the decreasing trend in the upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient over the area covered by the TEJ. During this period, the upper troposphere over the equatorial Indian Ocean has warmed due to enhanced deep moist convection associated with the rapid warming of the equatorial Indian Ocean. At the same time, a cooling of the upper troposphere has taken place over the Northern Hemisphere subtropics including the Tibetan anticyclone. The simultaneous cooling of the subtropics and the equatorial heating has caused a decrease in the upper tropospheric meridional thermal gradient. The consequent reduction in the strength of the easterly thermal wind has resulted in the weakening of the TEJ.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 1697-1708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkrintra Singhrattna ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
K. Krishna Kumar ◽  
Martyn Clark

Abstract Summer monsoon rains are a critical factor in Thailand’s water resources and agricultural planning and management. In fact, they have a significant impact on the country’s economic health. Consequently, understanding the variability of the summer monsoon rains over Thailand is important for instituting effective mitigating strategies against extreme rainfall fluctuations. To this end, the authors systematically investigated the relationships between summer monsoon precipitation from the central and northern regions of Thailand and large-scale climate features. It was found that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), in particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a negative relationship with the summer monsoon rainfall over Thailand in recent decades. However, the relationship between summer rainfall and ENSO was weak prior to 1980. It is hypothesized that the ENSO teleconnection depends on the SST configuration in the tropical Pacific Ocean, that is, an eastern Pacific–based El Niño pattern, such as is the case in most of the post-1980 El Niño events, tends to place the descending limb of the Walker circulation over the Thailand–Indonesian region, thereby significantly reducing convection and consequently, rainfall over Thailand. It is believed that this recent shift in the Walker circulation is instrumental for the nonstationarity in ENSO–monsoon relationships in Thailand. El Niños of 1997 and 2002 corroborate this hypothesis. This has implications for monsoon rainfall forecasting and, consequently, for resources planning and management.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2199-2215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Rucong Yu ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Helge Drange ◽  
Christophe Cassou ◽  
...  

Abstract The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since the late 1970s, which has contributed to the interdecadal transition of East Asian climate. The reason for the westward extension is unknown, however. The present study suggests that this significant change of WPSH is partly due to the atmosphere’s response to the observed Indian Ocean–western Pacific (IWP) warming. Coordinated by a European Union’s Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE), five AGCMs were forced by identical idealized sea surface temperature patterns representative of the IWP warming and cooling. The results of these numerical experiments suggest that the negative heating in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased convective heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent associated with IWP warming are in favor of the westward extension of WPSH. The SST changes in IWP influences the Walker circulation, with a subsequent reduction of convections in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which then forces an ENSO/Gill-type response that modulates the WPSH. The monsoon diabatic heating mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins plays a secondary reinforcing role in the westward extension of WPSH. The low-level equatorial flank of WPSH is interpreted as a Kelvin response to monsoon condensational heating, while the intensified poleward flow along the western flank of WPSH is in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance. The IWP warming has led to an expansion of the South Asian high in the upper troposphere, as seen in the reanalysis.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 4823-4885 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bonasoni ◽  
P. Laj ◽  
A. Marinoni ◽  
M. Sprenger ◽  
F. Angelini ◽  
...  

Abstract. South Asia is strongly influenced by the so-called Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), a wide polluted layer extending from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayas during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons (November to April). This thick, grey-brown haze blanket substantially interacts with the incoming solar radiation, causing a cooling of the Earth's surface and a warming of the atmosphere, thus influencing the monsoon system and climate. In this area, the Himalayan region, particularly sensitive to climate change, offers a unique opportunity to detect global change processes and to analyse the influence of anthropogenic pollution on background atmospheric conditions through continuous monitoring activities. This paper provides a detailed description of the atmospheric conditions characterizing the high Himalayas, thanks to continuous observations begun in March 2006 at the Nepal Climate Observatory – Pyramid (NCO-P) located at 5079 m a.s.l. on the southern foothills of Mt. Everest, in the framework of ABC-UNEP and SHARE-Ev-K2-CNR projects. Besides giving an overview of the measurement site and experimental activities, the work presents an in-depth characterization of meteorological conditions and air-mass circulation at NCO-P during the first two years of activity (March 2006–February 2008). The mean values of atmospheric pressure, temperature and wind speed recorded at the site were: 551 hPa, −3.0 °C, 4.7 m s−1, respectively. The highest seasonal values of temperature (1.7 °C) and relative humidity (94%) were registered during the monsoon season, which was also characterized by thick clouds present in about 80% of the afternoon hours and by a frequency of cloud-free sky less than 10%. The lowest temperature and relative humidity values were registered during winter, −6.3 °C and 22%, respectively, the season being characterised by mainly cloud-free sky conditions and rare thick clouds. The summer monsoon influenced the rain precipitation (seasonal mean 237 mm), while wind was dominated by flows from the bottom of the valley (S-SW) and upper mountain (N-NE). In relation to seasonal weather conditions, the time series variability of black carbon and dust particles (optical active aerosols) and ozone (regional greenhouse gas) were analysed, as they are significant constituents of the Atmospheric Brown Cloud and strongly influence the atmospheric radiative forcing. The highest seasonal values of black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) and dust particles were observed during the pre-monsoon season (316.9 ng m−3, 60.9 ppbv, 0.37 cm−3, respectively), while the lowest concentrations occurred during the monsoon for BC and O3 (49.6 ng m−3 and 33.6 ppbv, respectively) and post-monsoon for dust particles (0.07 cm−3). The seasonal cycles of these compounds are influenced both by the local mountain wind system and by the three principal large-scale circulation regimes: Westerly, South-Westerly and Regional, as shown by the analysis of in-situ meteorological parameters and 5-day LAGRANTO back-trajectories. In particular, the analysis of data representative of synoptic-scale circulation showed that the highest median values (O3: 68 ppbv, BC: 124 ng m−3, dust particles: 0.44 cm−3, respectively) were related with air-masses from polluted and arid regions in the Indian subcontinent, as well as the Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf. Furthermore, it was documented that in 90% of pre-monsoon days the Khumbu valley represents a "direct channel" able to transport polluted air-masses from the Asian Brown Cloud up to NCO-P and to higher altitudes. On such days the average day-time BC concentration (625 ng m−3) was at least double that recorded on the remaining days, even if during some pollution hot spots BC daily values increased up to 1000 ng m−3. In this study, two years of Himalayan observation activities carried out at NCO-P, in conjunction with model circulation analyses, provide some of the first evidence that polluted air-masses linked to the Atmospheric Brown Cloud can reach the high Himalayas, in particular during the pre-monsoon season, influencing the pristine atmospheric composition.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-82
Author(s):  
J. R. KULKARNI ◽  
M. MUJUMDAR ◽  
S. P. GHARGE ◽  
V. SATYAN ◽  
G. B. PANT

Earlier investigations into the epochal behavior of fluctuations in All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) have indicated the existence of a Low Frequency Mode (LFM) in the 60-70 years range. One of the probable sources of this variability may be due to changes in solar irradiance. To investigate this, time series of 128-year solar irradiance data from 1871-1998 has been examined. The Wavelet Transform (WT) method is applied to extract the LFM from these time series, which show a very good correspondence. A case study has been carried out to test the sensitivity of AISMR to solar irradiance. The General Circulation Model (GCM) of the Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) has been integrated in the control run (using the climatological value of solar constant i.e., 1365 Wm-2) and in the enhanced solar constant condition (enhanced by 10 Wm-2) for summer monsoon season of 1986. The study shows that the large scale atmospheric circulation over the Indian region, in the enhanced solar constant scenario is favorable to good monsoon activity. A conceptual model for the impact of solar irradiance on the AISMR at LFM is also suggested.


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