Dynamics of Forage Production in Pasture-woodlands of the Swiss Jura Mountains under Projected Climate Change Scenarios

In many parts of the foothills of the Orinoquía region of Colombia, cattle production takes place on poorly drained soils. The region is dominated by extensive grazing systems of Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola, a grass with high adaptation potential under temporal waterlogging conditions. Inadequate management practices and low soil fertility result in degradation, however, with important negative effects on pasture productivity and the quality and provision of (soil) ecosystem services–a situation that is likely to worsen in the near future due to climate change. Against this background, AGROSAVIA (Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria) selected Arachis pintoi CIAT 22160 cv. Centauro (Centauro) as a promising alternative for the sustainable intensification of livestock production and rehabilitation of degraded areas. This study assesses dual-purpose milk production in the foothills of the Colombian Orinoquía from an economic perspective. We compare two production systems: the Centauro–Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola association (new system) and Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola as a monoculture (traditional system). We used cashflow and risk assessment models to estimate economic indicators. The projections for economic returns consider changes in forage characteristics under regional climate change scenarios RCP (2.6, 8.5). The LIFE-SIM model was used to simulate dairy production. Results show that the inclusion of Centauro has the potential to increase animal productivity and profitability under different market scenarios. The impact of climatic variables on forage production is considerable in both climate change scenarios. Both total area and potential distribution of Centauro could change, and biomass production could decline. Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola showed better persistence due to higher nitrogen levels in soil when grown in association with Centauro. The legume also provides a number of ecosystem services, such as improving soil structure and composition, and also contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This helps to improve the adaptation and mitigation capacity of the system.

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Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Requirements of Preserved Forage for Horses under Mediterranean Conditions

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy10111758 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1758

Author(s):

Daniela Soares ◽

João Rolim ◽

Maria João Fradinho ◽

Teresa Afonso do Paço

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Deficit ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Balance Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Forage Production ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Adaptation Measure ◽

Irrigation Requirements ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Pasture and forage production occupies a large part of the utilized agricultural area in Portugal, a country prone to the effects of climate change. This study aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on forage irrigation requirements and at defining and assessing different adaptation measures. A second objective focuses on evaluating the impacts on water deficit of rainfed forages. This study was performed in a Lusitano horse stud farm located in Azambuja Municipality, Portugal. The climate change impacts on the crop irrigation requirements and crop water deficit were simulated using the soil water balance model, ISAREG. The reference period considered was 1971–2000 and the climate scenarios were the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2071–2100). The results show that the adaptation measure aiming at maximum production (several cuts) will increase the irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios between 38.4% and 67.1%. The adaptation measure aiming at reducing the water consumption (only one cut) will lead to a reduction in irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios, ranging between −31.1% and −64.0%. In rainfed conditions, the water deficit is substantially aggravated in the climate change scenarios.

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User-Centered Climate Change Scenarios Technique Development and Application of Korean Peninsula

Journal of Climate Change Research ◽

10.15531/ksccr.2018.9.1.13 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 13-29 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Jaepil Cho ◽

Imgook Jung ◽

Wonil Cho ◽

Syewoon Hwang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Korean Peninsula ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Technique Development ◽

User Centered

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Modelling impacts of different climate change scenarios on soil water regime of a Mollisol

Cereal Research Communications ◽

10.1556/crc.33.2005.1.45 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 33 (1) ◽

pp. 185-188 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Csilla Farkas ◽

Roger Randriamampianina ◽

Juraj Majerčak

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Water ◽

Water Regime ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Soil Water Regime

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Using species distribution models with climate change scenarios to aid ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California shrublands

10.2737/psw-rp-270 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Erin C. Riordan ◽

Arlee M. Montalvo ◽

Jan L. Beyers

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Restoration ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Southern California ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models

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Tackling G × E × M interactions to close on-farm yield-gaps: creating novel pathways for crop improvement by predicting contributions of genetics and management to crop productivity

Theoretical and Applied Genetics ◽

10.1007/s00122-021-03812-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mark Cooper ◽

Kai P. Voss-Fels ◽

Carlos D. Messina ◽

Tom Tang ◽

Graeme L. Hammer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Improvement ◽

Target Population ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Global Food Security ◽

Genotype By Environment ◽

Improvement Strategies ◽

Yield Gaps ◽

On Farm

Abstract Key message Climate change and Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management interactions together challenge our strategies for crop improvement. Research to advance prediction methods for breeding and agronomy is opening new opportunities to tackle these challenges and overcome on-farm crop productivity yield-gaps through design of responsive crop improvement strategies. Abstract Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management (G × E × M) interactions underpin many aspects of crop productivity. An important question for crop improvement is “How can breeders and agronomists effectively explore the diverse opportunities within the high dimensionality of the complex G × E × M factorial to achieve sustainable improvements in crop productivity?” Whenever G × E × M interactions make important contributions to attainment of crop productivity, we should consider how to design crop improvement strategies that can explore the potential space of G × E × M possibilities, reveal the interesting Genotype–Management (G–M) technology opportunities for the Target Population of Environments (TPE), and enable the practical exploitation of the associated improved levels of crop productivity under on-farm conditions. Climate change adds additional layers of complexity and uncertainty to this challenge, by introducing directional changes in the environmental dimension of the G × E × M factorial. These directional changes have the potential to create further conditional changes in the contributions of the genetic and management dimensions to future crop productivity. Therefore, in the presence of G × E × M interactions and climate change, the challenge for both breeders and agronomists is to co-design new G–M technologies for a non-stationary TPE. Understanding these conditional changes in crop productivity through the relevant sciences for each dimension, Genotype, Environment, and Management, creates opportunities to predict novel G–M technology combinations suitable to achieve sustainable crop productivity and global food security targets for the likely climate change scenarios. Here we consider critical foundations required for any prediction framework that aims to move us from the current unprepared state of describing G × E × M outcomes to a future responsive state equipped to predict the crop productivity consequences of G–M technology combinations for the range of environmental conditions expected for a complex, non-stationary TPE under the influences of climate change.

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Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Ecological Processes ◽

10.1186/s13717-020-00259-0 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Nabaz R. Khwarahm

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Future Climate ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Kurdistan Region ◽

Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

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Impact assessment of common bean availability in Brazil under climate change scenarios

Agricultural Systems ◽

10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103174 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 191 ◽

pp. 103174

Author(s):

Luís A.S. Antolin ◽

Alexandre B. Heinemann ◽

Fábio R. Marin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Common Bean ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Elevated temperature and browning increase dietary methylmercury, but decrease essential fatty acids at the base of lake food webs

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-95742-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Pianpian Wu ◽

Martin J. Kainz ◽

Fernando Valdés ◽

Siwen Zheng ◽

Katharina Winter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Fatty Acids ◽

Organic Matter ◽

Food Webs ◽

Essential Fatty Acids ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Essential Nutrients ◽

Aquatic Food Webs ◽

Aquatic Food

AbstractClimate change scenarios predict increases in temperature and organic matter supply from land to water, which affect trophic transfer of nutrients and contaminants in aquatic food webs. How essential nutrients, such as polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and potentially toxic contaminants, such as methylmercury (MeHg), at the base of aquatic food webs will be affected under climate change scenarios, remains unclear. The objective of this outdoor mesocosm study was to examine how increased water temperature and terrestrially-derived dissolved organic matter supply (tDOM; i.e., lake browning), and the interaction of both, will influence MeHg and PUFA in organisms at the base of food webs (i.e. seston; the most edible plankton size for zooplankton) in subalpine lake ecosystems. The interaction of higher temperature and tDOM increased the burden of MeHg in seston (< 40 μm) and larger sized plankton (microplankton; 40–200 μm), while the MeHg content per unit biomass remained stable. However, PUFA decreased in seston, but increased in microplankton, consisting mainly of filamentous algae, which are less readily bioavailable to zooplankton. We revealed elevated dietary exposure to MeHg, yet decreased supply of dietary PUFA to aquatic consumers with increasing temperature and tDOM supply. This experimental study provides evidence that the overall food quality at the base of aquatic food webs deteriorates during ongoing climate change scenarios by increasing the supply of toxic MeHg and lowering the dietary access to essential nutrients of consumers at higher trophic levels.

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