scholarly journals Maximum Pressure, Minimum Deal: President Trump’s Trade War with a Rising China*

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-99
Author(s):  
Holger Janusch ◽  
Daniel Lorberg
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rising China ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Hegemonic Stability

In the context of the American decline, President Trump’s trade war toward a rising China fits into the pattern of a declining hegemon, as predicted by hegemonic stability theory. Trump’s trade policy is driven by his view of trade as a zero-sum game, his fixation on the trade deficit, and his “maximum pressure” negotiation approach. The result - the “phase one” deal - seems to be a trade ceasefire rather than a lasting trade peace between the declining hegemon and its ascending challenger because it stands on a shaky foundation. This “phase one” deal does not address the structural problems in the US-Sino trade relation. Moreover, its goals are unrealistic, and it is built upon a dispute settlement that favors deal determination over rule-based conflict resolution.

scholarly journals A real driver of US–China trade conflict

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min-hyung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Us Hegemony ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Hegemonic Stability

Purpose According to the conventional wisdom, trade is not a zero-sum game, but a positive-sum game. By allowing countries to focus on producing the goods that they can produce relatively efficiently, free trade is largely beneficial for everyone involved. Then, why are the world’s two largest economies (i.e. the USA and China) currently engaged in a trade war, which is likely to hurt their own economies? What is the driving force for the trade war between the two economic giants? The purpose of this paper is to offer an explanation of the underlying cause of the US–China trade war. Design/methodology/approach In an effort to make sense of the trade war between the USA and China, the paper draws the insights from the two international relations theories – i.e. hegemonic stability theory and power transition theory. Findings As China continues to threaten US hegemony in the world in general and East Asia in particular, the Sino–US competition for hegemony will intensify over time. As a result, the trade war between the two countries may persist longer than many anticipate. Further, even if the trade war between the two superpowers ends soon, a similar type of conflict is likely to occur later as long as the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry continues. Originality/value The central thesis of this paper is that “US fear” about its declining hegemony and China’s rapid rise as a challenger of US hegemony is driving a US-launched trade war with China. Since the underlying cause of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is political (i.e. the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry) rather than economic (e.g. US attempts to improve the trade balance with China by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods), the paper contends that the full understanding of the trade war requires close attention to the importance of power competition between the two superpowers.

The Thucydides Trap as an Alternative Explanation for the US–China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad A. Moosa
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
National Income ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Thucydides Trap ◽  
Trade War

The current trade war between the USA and China is perceived to be motivated by the US desire to curtail the bilateral trade deficit, on the assumption that reducing the deficit boosts economic growth. This flawed proposition indicates gross misunderstanding of the national income identity and the basic principles of macroeconomics. The imposition of tariffs will not reduce the trade deficit as the assumptions and conditions required for a smooth working of the process are unrealistic and counterfactual. The notion of an economic Thucydides trap is put forward to explain why the trade war is motivated by US apprehension about China’s rising economic power.

scholarly journals The United States-China Trade War: Empirical Assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Victor Adjarho Ovuakporaye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Empirical Assessment ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to explore the US-China trade war by looking at various issues surrounding the US-China trade relation. The US-China trade war had been imminent since January 2018, meritoriously commenced on 6 July 2018, which is still ongoing. The US imposed sanctions on various Chinese goods, which was counter by the Chinese side also. Both side have felt the effect of the trade war though China felt the impact more than United States. Though, both nations have recently held positive trade talks which leads to the first phase of negotiation the trade war is still ongoing. If the partnership between the United states and China collapses, this will also end up harming the global economy severely since they are crucial cornerstones of the international economy.

scholarly journals Discussion on the Impact of Sino-US Trade War on Taiwanese Manufacturing

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Jui-Lung Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Dispute Settlement Mechanism ◽  
Wto Dispute Settlement ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

When US President Donald Trump signed the Section 301 Investigation in March 2018, the Sino-US trade war intensified, exerting a great impact on the global economy. The Trump Administration recently has piled up the economic and trade pressure on China, while China seeks to resort to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism and break the siege imposed by the trade war through the "Belt and Road Initiative". US launched a trade war against China due mainly to the huge trade deficit with China, and the trade frictions between the U.S. and China have caused turbulence on the Asian and global industrial chains. Therefore, by analyzing the recent trade conflicts between the U.S. and China and the responses given by both respectively, this paper explores the possible impact on Taiwan's manufacturing and its potential response.

The US and Asia in 2018

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Sutter
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Intense Competition ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

A summit with North Korea’s leader in June saw President Trump greatly ease regional tensions created by his earlier maximum pressure policy against North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. He also launched punitive tariffs to change trading relations to US benefit, with adverse impact on regional economies. China became the focus, resulting in a trade war accompanied by a hardening of US policy, foreshadowing intense competition.

scholarly journals The US hegemony, East Asia and global governance

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Min-Hua Chiang
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
World Order ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
American Hegemony ◽  
Us Hegemony ◽  
Rising China ◽  
Zero Sum

This article studies the US hegemony with particular focus on its dominant role in East Asia and compares conventional thoughts with different views provided by the two books reviewed. Reich and Lebow considered that American hegemony has started to erode when other nations regained their economic strength and political stability during the postwar decades. Acharya’s main argument is focusing on the decline of the American world order, rather than the decline of the US. Authors from the two books jumped out from the conventional zero-sum game between the rising China and the declining US power and consider other regional players in constructing the world order. However, this article argued that if China was not able to challenge the US power presence, there is no reason to assume the IS power decline. The establishment of the institutionalized network with involvement of several countries would only to strengthen the US dominance, rather than to weaken it.

scholarly journals The Influence of D. Trump’s Policy on International Trade

2019 ◽  
pp. 65-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. O. Chudinova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Free Competition ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

The increasing level of tension in the trade relations between the United States and other countries, especially China; the potential escalation of trade wars, when countries take more and more explicit retaliatory protectionist measures, becomes a sustainability risk to development of international trade. The US actions taken in 2018–2019 to protect the internal market turned into into a full-fledged trade war, directed primarily against China - the country the United States has the largest trade deficit with. The introduction of the US tariff restrictions on imports from China and several other countries has caused retaliatory measures, as a result the uncertainty of the prospects for international trade increases. Non-tariff measures, such as phytosanitary requirements and technical barriers to trade, have also seen an increase in restrictions.An important source of controversy is the different positions of countries regarding the permissible degree of state support for enterprises. Developed countries, especially the United States, Japan, and the countries of the European Union, have fairly rigidly regulated rules regarding free competition. A cause for great concern is not only the US trade war with China and its consequences for other countries, but also the problems of international trade regulation.

Biden win would improve Mexico relations

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Us Senate

Significance Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has strived to maintain cordial relations with incumbent US President Donald Trump, despite his aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico. A Biden win would improve bilateral relations significantly. Impacts Biden’s interest in Mexico may stretch beyond trade and the border to a wider range of issues, leading AMLO to see him as interventionist. A Republican-dominated US Senate would increase attention on issues of interest to businesses, such as investor-state dispute settlement. Any easing of the US-China trade war could weaken the perceived urgency of the need to re-shore supply chains, to the detriment of Mexico. Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States will ensure AMLO maintains a pragmatic approach towards any bilateral disputes.

US-Thai military and trade links could cool

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Political Role ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Military

Subject US-Thailand relations. Significance The US Pacific Command's participation in the successful international collaboration to rescue 13 people from a cave in Thailand on July 10 was viewed on both sides as an affirmation of the US-Thailand alliance, and as a further boost to a new momentum in the broader bilateral relationship following a sharp slowdown after Thailand’s 2014 military coup. Improvement in relations is due partly to the reluctance of President Donald Trump's administration to emphasise democracy and human rights in foreign policy and more specifically to Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s visit to the White House last October. Impacts Warmer ties will not necessarily translate to increased US investment in Thailand. Thailand will need to look further afield for private investment in its Eastern Economic Corridor. If a China-US trade war occurs, Bangkok would try to avoid choosing sides but could ultimately pick Washington. The Trump administration’s push to reduce the US trade deficit with Thailand could cause frictions absent a quick deal. Thailand’s new constitution gives the military a lasting political role; US-Thai military links could therefore later help ties.

scholarly journals Emerging Countries and the Effects of the Trade War between US and China

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monique Carvalho ◽  
André Azevedo ◽  
Angélica Massuquetti
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Allocative Efficiency ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects of the US–China trade war on both countries and some emerging economies. Two scenarios are examined, one where only US protectionist measures are considered, and another in which Chinese retaliation is taken into account, using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) Computable General Equilibrium model. The results showed that, on one hand, the trade war would lead to a reduction in US trade deficit and an increase in domestic production of those sectors affected by higher import tariffs and Chinese producers and consumers would bear the lion’s share of the burden of the trade war. But, on the other hand, both countries and the world as a whole would lose in terms of welfare, due to the significant reduction in allocative efficiency, especially in the US, and the loss of terms of trade in the Chinese case. With the increase in protectionism between the two largest global economies, some important emerging countries, not directly involved in the trade war, would benefit by the shift in demand to sectors where they have comparative advantages.

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