scholarly journals Time-Varying Integration of Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Market with the EU Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-47
Author(s):  
Mariusz Hamulczuk ◽  
◽  
Oksana Makarchuk ◽  
Tetyana Kuts ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sunflower Oil ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Market Condition ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The Eu

Ukraine (UA) is one of the world-leading countries in sunflower oil production and sunflower oil exports. Due to the increasing demand caused by biofuel regulations, the European Union (EU) remains the key importer of Ukrainian sunflower oil. Therefore, the aim of the proposed research is to provide an evaluation of the time-varying integration of the UA sunflower oil market with the EU market. To fulfill this goal, first, the trends in sunflower oil production and exports in Ukraine as well as trade regulations are presented. The market integration was assessed using the ARDL-ECM approach that was applied to weekly sunflower oil prices in the period from 2000 to 2020. The analytical study was supplemented with the Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) Granger causality test, the Bai-Perron multiple structural breakpoint test (B-P) as well as impulse response functions (IRF). This study and the obtained results for the whole sample confirm the presence of a long-run relationship between EU and UA prices. The EU prices are the Granger cause for UA prices, as it is shown in the T-Y test. The Bai-Perron test indicates the existence of multiple structural breaks that can be justified by the market condition and policy modifications. Both the long- and the short-run response of UA prices to changes in EU prices vary significantly in different sub-periods.

scholarly journals Bank-Based Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time-Varying Causality Analysis for Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Amira Akl Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Growth Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
The Government

The bootstrap approach to Toda-Yamamoto (1995) modified causality test is applied in a rolling window of fixed size onto Egyptian data during 1960-2016 to examine time-varying links between economic growth (EG) and bank-based financial development (BBFD). Full sample results indicated the existence of unidirectional causality running from BBFD to EG, however; instability tests revealed the presence of structural breaks. Given the misleading inferences made using the full sample, the rolling window procedure is applied. Bidirectional time-varying causality between EG and BBFD was detected. Reasons behind declining the fraction of credit provided to private business sector to GDP in recent years include, mainly, credit crunch and expansion of credit to the government and partially to economic slowdown. Adoption of fiscal reforms and promotion of innovative financial tools suitable for the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises is highly recommended to enhance the role of banking system in promoting economic growth.

scholarly journals Economic prospects in the context of growing regional interdependencies: the European Union and the eastern partnership

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-72
Author(s):  
Ganna Kharlamova
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Political Association ◽  
The Eu

The paper deals with the European Union programme devoted to the eastern neighboring states. Through its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the EU works with its southern and eastern neighbours to achieve the closest possible political association and the greatest possible degree of economic integration. This goal builds on common interests and values — democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights, and social cohesion. The EU is concerned that, despite sufficient funding and support from the EU, the targeted states did not raise to the EU targets for the programme or at least to a relevant one. We assume that such fact happened mostly because, although having very diverse economic and reform pasts emerged from the post-soviet period, they were considered and approached as a single group. The main hypothesis: has the umbrella of the EU funds in terms of the EaP provided for the six targeted states to intensify the growth of regional interdependencies as well as political cooperation and progressive economic integration? The main goal of the paper is to assess, by means of the statistical and comparison approach, the development and the economic sustainability of six targeted states (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) in the period before and after the programme launching – the degree of regional interdependence and economic integration. The research was conducted using the methods of empirical (regression) analysis, theoretical explanations, descriptive analysis, and the Granger causality test.

scholarly journals Time-Varying Impacts of Carbon Price Drivers in the EU ETS: A TVP-VAR Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Yongna Yuan ◽  
Aimin Hao
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Eu Ets ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Oil Gas ◽  
The Eu

This study analyzes the impacts of different drivers on the pricing of EU carbon futures in various periods by using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The results indicate that: (1) The relationships between oil, gas, electricity, stock prices and carbon price have significant time-varying characteristics and those relationships have experienced an inversion in 2016. This might be due to the pressure of achieving the “EU 20-20-20” targets and the signing of the Paris Agreement as well as the fine-tuning of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). (2) The impacts of different drivers on carbon price are various. The carbon price is more sensitive to oil, gas, electricity prices as well as the stock price before the inversion in the short-term, while its response to changes in the stock price after the inversion is more obvious in the mid-long term. (3) After the signing of the Paris Agreement in the second quarter of 2016, the carbon price has a greater response to changes in its drivers. The oil price’s impact on carbon price became the most significant one among them.

scholarly journals Shift in tax burden and its impact on economic growth in the European Union

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 1153-1160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irena Szarowská
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Eu

This article deals with a tax burden in the European Union in as financial and economic crisis has impacted also on tax systems in the European Union. Governments’ tax measure aims to consolidate public finance and promote an economic growth. The article provides empirical evidence on a shift in a tax burden and its structure and analyzes the effects of shift in tax burden on economic growth in the EU. It is used the Eurostat definition to categorize tax burden by economic functions and implicit rates of consumption, labour and capital are investigated. The analysis is based on annual data of the EU member states in a period 1995–2010. On average, labour taxes have decreased by 1.9 p.p., capital taxes have also decreased – by 2.1 p.p., but consumption taxes have mildly increased by 0.4 p.p. in the European Union in a period 1995–2010. Pairwise Granger Causality Test was used for examining relations between economic growth and tax burden by economic functions in short-term. Results confirm that there is two-way causality between change of implicit tax rate of consumption and GDP growth; and also GDP growth Granger-causes change of implicit tax rate of capital and implicit tax rate of labour through one-way causality.

The tourism led growth hypothesis: the Lebanese case

2015 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charbel Bassil ◽  
Mohamad Hamadeh ◽  
Nisrine Samara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the direction of the causality between tourism development and economic growth in Lebanon between 1995 and 2013, after taking into consideration terrorist incidents and their intensities. These are considered as exogenous shocks that affect tourism development and economic growth instantaneously and with a lag. Design/methodology/approach – To reach the objectives, the authors estimate a vector auto regressive model with exogenous variables, applying a series of unit root tests with and without structural breaks and the Granger causality test. Findings – The findings suggest a positive unidirectional causality running from tourism development to economic growth in the short run. Thus, the authors find evidence for the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in Lebanon despite the exposure of the country to frequent terrorist incidents. The impulse response functions reveal that tourism development (economic growth) responds positively to a positive shock to economic growth (tourism development). Practical implications – The findings call for Lebanese policy makers aiming at promoting growth to design policies that encourage tourism, such as implementing tourism marketing policies and building the needed tourism infrastructure. Such policies will have positive but transitory effects on economic growth. The findings may also be useful for regional representatives of intergovernmental organizations and the offices of statistics of United Nations World Tourism Organization and the World Bank to better understand the tourism industry in Lebanon and similar countries suffering from instabilities. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the existing literature in three points: despite the importance of the tourism industry to the Lebanese economy, this topic did not receive careful attention in the literature; it takes into consideration the presence of structural breaks and possible nonlinearities in the number of tourist arrivals; and it investigates the TLGH after accounting for instability in the country.

scholarly journals Exploring the European Union Renewable Energy Directive and its Implications for Indonesias Palm Oil Industry

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Bondan Widyatmoko
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Market Penetration ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Sustainability Criteria ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The Eu

The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) is a vehicle for environmental NGOs concerned about biodiversity destruction in Indonesia, for European biodiesel producers to admit new competitors, and for European Union (EU) interests to build a secure and sustainable economy for their region. In other words, it is a manifestation of the di?erent interests of many agencies that share grace and favour over palm oil development in the EU. By observing the RED as the vehicle and the EU system of governance as its course, this paper records the interactions between those agencies in shaping the policy. The observations allow for agencies contributions to the images of palm oil. It depicts that biodiversity destruction is the basis for the sustainability criteria in the RED but it was not the only cause of the slowing down in the pace of the Indonesian palm oil market penetration in the region. To some extent, the RED is considered a trade barrier for Indonesian palm oil. However, the RED is an incentive to strengthen the image of the palm oil industry in a more constructive way and ensure the longevity of the industry.

Producer prices in the main food markets in the second quarter of 2021

2021 ◽  
pp. 56-60
Author(s):  
Oleg S. Sobolev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sunflower Oil ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
Main Food ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
The Eu

The article compares producer prices for grain, milk, meat in Russia, the EU and the USA in the 2nd quarter of 2021. The measures of state regulation in the sugar and sunflower oil market are evaluated. There was a higher increase in inflation compared to last year in the domestic markets of sugar, vegetables, potatoes, chickens and sunflower oil.

scholarly journals INVESTOR SENTIMENT CONNECTEDNESS: EVIDENCE FROM LINEAR AND NONLINEAR CAUSALITY APPROACHES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
AVIRAL KUMAR TIWARI ◽  
DEVEN BATHIA ◽  
ELIE BOURI ◽  
RANGAN GUPTA
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

This paper provides a novel perspective in determining the Granger causality of sentiment across the US, Latin America, Eurozone, Japan and Asia (excluding Japan), based on monthly data covering the period of January 2003–November 2017. Using a survey-based sentiment index of “sentix”, our results suggest strong evidence of nonlinearity and structural breaks making the use of linear causality models unreliable. Using a kernel-based multivariate nonlinear causality test, we find that causality runs from Eurozone to the US, Asia and Japan, with Japan also causing the Eurozone sentiment, and Latin America causing the Japanese sentiment. Interestingly, when we apply rolling estimations to detect time-varying causality for the cases of Eurozone and the US, Eurozone and Asia, Eurozone and Japan and Latin America and Japan, the results suggest evidence of bidirectional spillovers during certain months of the recent global financial crisis, and thereafter. Overall, our findings indicate that the sentiments of Japan, Asia and the US are related quite strongly with that of the Eurozone, as well as the sentiments of Japan and Latin America.

Russia - European Union: The continuation ofthe sanctions standoff

2017 ◽  
pp. 114-127
Author(s):  
M. Klinova ◽  
E. Sidorova
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Current Data ◽  
The State ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Year 2013

The article deals with economic sanctions and their impact on the state and prospects of the neighboring partner economies - the European Union (EU) and Russia. It provides comparisons of current data with that of the year 2013 (before sanctions) to demonstrate the impact of sanctions on both sides. Despite the fact that Russia remains the EU’s key partner, it came out of the first three partners of the EU. The current economic recession is caused by different reasons, not only by sanctions. Both the EU and Russia have internal problems, which the sanctions confrontation only exacerbates. The article emphasizes the need for a speedy restoration of cooperation.

Avrupa’ya Türk göçü: Almanya örneği

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Milan Palat
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Theoretical Concept ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
The Other ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Effective Mechanism ◽  
The Eu

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’den göç ve Almanya’nın ekonomik göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi, nicel metot yöntemleri kullanarak değerlendirmektir. Türkiye’nin belirsiz Avrupa ile bütünleşme beklentilerine rağmen  Avrupa Birliğinin köklü üyelerine olan Türk göçü devam edecektir. Çok sayıda Türk azınlığın yaşadığı ve hayat standartlarının yüksek olduğu Almanya, Hollanda ve Fransa’ya  büyük bir göç dalgası gerçekleşebilir. Çalışmanın istatistiksel bölümünün sonuçları, toplam göç ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladaki büyüme arasında pozitif, toplam göç ile işsizlik arasındaki negatif ve tahmin edilen bağımlılık yönüyle uygunluk içerisinde olan toplam göç ile aylık gelir arasında pozitif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Türkiye’den göçle işsizlik arasındaki ilişki, toplam göçle olan ilişkiden daha düşüktür. Ancak, Almanya’daki yabancı mevcudiyeti ile Türkiye’den göç arasında bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu durum, var olan göçmen topluluğunun olduğu yerin, yeni göçmenleri, köken bağlarına dayanarak cezbetmesi ve maliyet- riskler sebebiyle göçün düşük seviye de olduğuna dayanan kuramsal Ağ teorisi görüşü ile uygunluk göstermektedir. Göç ve işsizlik arasında gözlenen ilişki, Almanya’ya göçün  işgücü piyasasında talepte meydana gelen değişime karşılık geldiği gerçeğini göstermektedir. İşsizlik ve göç olgularının meydana geliş zamanlarında bir aralık  olsa bile  göç, Alman emek pazarında var olan dengesizliklerin azaltılmasında nispeten etkili bir mekanizma gibi görünmektedir. ENGLISH TITLE & ABSTRACTTurkish Immigration to the European Union: The Case of GermanyThe objective of the paper was to evaluate the relationships between immigration from Turkey and economic indicators in Germany using  quantitative methods. Despite Turkey’s unclear European integration prospects, it is predicted that Turkish immigration to  established member countries of the EU will continue. The strongest waves may flow to Germany, Netherlands or France, where numerous Turkish minorities are already present and where the living standards are high. Results from the statistical analysis of the paper showed a positive correlation between immigration total and the growth of gross domestic product. On the other hand, a negative correlation of immigration total and unemployment was found and a positive relationship between immigration total and income total which is in agreement with the expected dependency direction. With regards to  immigration from Turkey it is less correlated to unemployment than immigration total. But there is a correlation between immigration from Turkey and the stock of foreigners in Germany This is in accordance with the theoretical concept of network theory where an existing community of migrants keeps attracting new migrants because the costs and risks associated with migration are lower, thanks to established linkages to the country of origin. The observed correlation of migration and unemployment points to the fact that immigration to Germany responds to changes in demand in the labour market. Even though a time lag may occur in the case of unemployment and immigration, migration appears to be a relatively effective mechanism to offset existing imbalances in German labour markets. 

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