scholarly journals A Branching Process Model for the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Spread in Greece

2021 ◽  
pp. 63-69
Author(s):  
Ioanna A. Mitrofani ◽  
◽  
Vasilis P. Koutras
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Simple Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The novel coronavirus (covid-19) was initially identified at the end of 2019 and caused a global health care crisis. The increased transmissibility of the virus, that led to high mortality, raises the interest of scientists worldwide. Thus, various methods and models have been extensively discussed, so to study and control covid-19 transmission. Mathematical modeling constitutes an important tool to estimate key parameters of the transmission and predict the dynamic of the virus. More precisely, in the relevant literature, epidemiology is considered as a classical application area of branching processes, which are stochastic individual-based processes. In this paper, we develop a classical Galton-Watson branching process approach for the covid-19 spread in Greece at the early stage. This approach is structured in two parts, initial and latter transmission stages, so to provide a comprehensive view of the virus spread through basic and effective reproduction numbers respectively, along with the probability of an outbreak. Additionally, the effectiveness of control measures is discussed, based on a simple exponential smoothing model, which is used to build a non-mitigation scenario. Finally, our primary aim is to model all transmission stages through branching processes in order to analyze the first semiannual spread of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in the region of Greece.

scholarly journals Community grid management is an important measure to contain the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ling ◽  
Xianjie Wen
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grid Management

Abstract The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)), declared as a ‘global pandemic’ by the World Health Organization (WHO), is a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The outbreak in multiple locations shows a trend of accelerating spread around the world. China has taken a series of powerful measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to actively finding effective treatment drugs and developing vaccines, it is more important to identify the source of infection at the community level as soon as possible to block the transmission path of the virus to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The implementation of grid management in the community and the adoption of precise management and control measures to reduce unnecessary personnel movement can effectively reduce the risk of pandemic spread. This paper mainly describes that the grid management mode can promote the refinement and comprehensiveness of community management. As a management system with potential to improve the governance ability of community affairs, it may be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic in the community.

scholarly journals Experiences and Practices in the Current Prevention and Control of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shen Shao ◽  
Zichen Zhou ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Shuyu Liu ◽  
Lu Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Lung Diseases ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
International Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Type ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

ABSTRACT Since December 2019, several new infectious diseases, mainly lung diseases caused by novel coronavirus infections, have been discovered in Wuhan, Hubei Province. With the spread of the epidemic, cases in other regions of China and abroad have been confirmed. This sudden outbreak of a new type of infectious disease has seriously threatened people’s health and safety, and China has adopted strong prevention and control measures in response. To provide a reference for international health emergency management workers, this article summarizes, from an academic perspective, the main prevention and control measures taken in China.

scholarly journals Tracking the spread of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) based on big data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xumao Zhao ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Xinhai Li
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) appeared in Wuhan in late 2019 have infected 34,598 people, and killed 723 among them until 8th February 2020. The new virus has spread to at least 316 cities (until 1st February 2020) in China. We used the traffic flow data from Baidu Map, and number of air passengers who left Wuhan from 1st January to 26th January, to quantify the potential infectious people. We developed multiple linear models with local population and air passengers as predicted variables to explain the variance of confirmed cases in every city across China. We found the contribution of air passengers from Wuhan was decreasing gradually, but the effect of local population was increasing, indicating the trend of local transmission. However, the increase of local transmission is slow during the early stage of novel coronavirus, due to the super strict control measures carried out by government agents and communities.

scholarly journals Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Timothy W Russell ◽  
Charlie Diamond ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
John Edmunds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Gates Foundation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Over Time

AbstractBackgroundAn outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to 46,997 confirmed cases as of 13th February 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.MethodsWe combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January and February 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas.FindingsWe estimated that the median daily reproduction number, Rt, declined from 2.35 (95% CI: 1.15-4.77) one week before travel restrictions were introduced on 23rd January to 1.05 (95% CI: 0.413-2.39) one week after. Based on our estimates of Rt,we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential as Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population.InterpretationOur results show that COVID-19 transmission likely declined in Wuhan during late January 2020, coinciding with the introduction of control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan pre-control, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but may still cause new outbreaks eventually.FundingWellcome Trust (206250/Z/17/Z, 210758/Z/18/Z), HDR UK (MR/S003975/1), Gates Foundation (INV-003174), NIHR (16/137/109)

scholarly journals Nations’ Responses and Control Measures in Confrontation with the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Rapid Review

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parinaz Tabari ◽  
Mitra Amini ◽  
Mohsen Moghadami ◽  
Mahsa Moosavi
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Rapid Review ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Rapid Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a significant concern in many countries due to the rapid rate of transmission between humans. Taking advantage of the experience of the last epidemics in 2002 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and 2012 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), some regions of the world were well- prepared for the new outbreak. However, other countries needed to be adapted to the situation promptly. Many management strategies were established, and some restrictions were introduced in some regions. In this review, we aimed to determine countries’ public responses to the epidemic of COVID-19 and how they developed administrative approaches towards the outbreak.

scholarly journals Artemether, Artesunate, Arteannuin B, Echinatin, Licochalcone B and Andrographolide Effectively Inhibit SARS-CoV-2 and Related Viruses In Vitro

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunjia Hu ◽  
Meiqin Liu ◽  
Hongbo Qin ◽  
Haofeng Lin ◽  
Xiaoping An ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Medicine ◽  
Traditional Chinese Medicine ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Clinical Applications ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Compound Library ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Since the first reported case caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, COVID-19 has caused serious deaths and an ongoing global pandemic, and it is still raging in more than 200 countries and regions around the world and many new variants have appeared in the process of continuous transmission. In the early stage of the epidemic prevention and control and clinical treatment, traditional Chinese medicine played a huge role in China. Here, we screened out six monomer compounds, including artemether, artesunate, arteannuin B, echinatin, licochalcone B and andrographolide, with excellent anti-SARS-CoV-2 and anti-GX_P2V activity from Anti-COVID-19 Traditional Chinese Medicine Compound Library containing 389 monomer compounds extracted from traditional Chinese medicine prescriptions “three formulas and three drugs”. Our discovery preliminary proved the stage of action of those compounds against SARS-CoV-2 and provided inspiration for further research and clinical applications.

scholarly journals Epidemiologic Features of 135 Patients With Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Tianjin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 630-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunxia Cao ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Shuyu Liu ◽  
Haojun Fan ◽  
Liangchen Hao
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Familial Clustering ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiologic Features

ABSTRACTObjective:This study describes the epidemiologic features of an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Tianjin caused by a novel coronavirus and provides the scientific basis for prevention and control measures.Methods:Data from COVID-19 cases were collected from daily notifications given to the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China and Tianjin Health Committee. All of the data were analyzed with SPSS, version 24.0 software (IBM Corp, Armonk, NY).Results:As of February 24, 2020, there have been 135 confirmed cases, 3 deaths, and 87 recoveries in Tianjin, China. The incidence of COVID-19 was 8.65/1 000 000 with a 2.22% case fatality rate. Regarding geographic distribution, the incidence was 8.82 per 1 000 000 in urban areas and 8.00 per 1 000 000 in suburbs. During the early stage of the epidemic, most cases came from urban areas and in patients with a history of sojourning in Hubei Province. The majority of patients were 31–70 years old (75.97%). A familial clustering was the most important characteristic of COVID-19 (accounting for 74.81%).Conclusions:Current information suggests that people are generally susceptible to COVID-19, which has shown a familial clustering in Tianjin.

scholarly journals Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Chinese Experience and Implications for Other Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Liu ◽  
Xiao-Guang Yue ◽  
Paul B. Tchounwou
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multiple Systems ◽  
The Public ◽  
Community Technology ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that occurred in China is rapidly spreading globally. China’s bond and strict containment measures have been proved (in practice) to significantly reduce the spread of the epidemic. This was obtained through the use of emergency control measures in the epidemic areas and the integration of resources from multiple systems, including business, community, technology, education, and transportation, across the country. In order to better understand how China has managed to reduce the public health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic, this editorial systematically reviews the specific measures for infection prevention and control of the disease. The best practices for COVID-19 eradication in China provide evidence-based strategies that could be replicated in other countries.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2: A critical review of preventive and control measures in the context of the virus’ characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-39
Author(s):  
Manca Alič ◽  
Andrej Ovca
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Cleaning And Disinfection ◽  
And Control

Abstract The year 2020 has been marked by the novel coronavirus, named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic on the 11th of March 2020 due to the spread of this very contagious virus throughout the world. Since the outbreak, we have gained many insights about the virus, its presence and persistence in the environment and its possible and most common transmission routes. Such knowledge about the virus is invaluable for establishing effective preventive and control measures (also referred to as Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)) that have become a key to tackling this pandemic in the absence of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. In this review, we discuss five main groups of NPIs: 1) ventilation, 2) cleaning and disinfection, 3) hand hygiene, 4) physical distancing, and 5) protective masks. We explore their shortcomings and potential negative consequences that might occur as unwanted side effects.

scholarly journals Containment, Contact Tracing and Asymptomatic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Modelling Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 3125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryo Kinoshita ◽  
Asami Anzai ◽  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Takeshi Miyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

When a novel infectious disease emerges, enhanced contact tracing and isolation are implemented to prevent a major epidemic, and indeed, they have been successful for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which have been greatly reduced without causing a global pandemic. Considering that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infections are substantial for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the feasibility of preventing the major epidemic has been questioned. Using a two-type branching process model, the present study assesses the feasibility of containing COVID-19 by computing the probability of a major epidemic. We show that if there is a substantial number of asymptomatic transmissions, cutting chains of transmission by means of contact tracing and case isolation would be very challenging without additional interventions, and in particular, untraced cases contribute to lowering the feasibility of containment. Even if isolation of symptomatic cases is conducted swiftly after symptom onset, only secondary transmissions after the symptom onset can be prevented.

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