Verification and usability of location specific medium range weather forecast for Kullu valley

Weather plays a crucial role in agriculture. Precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, drying conditions, dry and wet spells are the most important weather elements information about whom could play a significant role in farm planning and operations. Inclement weather events like drought and floods, cold and heat waves, hails, squalls, tropical storms severely affect the production. Occurrences of erratic weather are beyond human control. It is possible to adapt or mitigate their malevolent effect to some extend if the occurrence of the events is predicted well in advance and farmers are suitably advised to take ameliorative measures. Attempts were made to verify the weather forecasts received on every Tuesday and Friday from NCMRWF/IMD. The verification analysis was carried out on weekly, seasonal and annual basis using various verification techniques, viz., Ratio Score (RS), Critical Success Index (CSI), Heidke Skill Score (HSS), Hanssen and Kuipers Score (HK), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), usability analysis and correlation approach during 2000-01 to 2009-10. The analysis depicted that ratio score on yearly basis was highest (74.6) during 2005-06 followed by 2004-05 (72.9) and 2003-04 (72.7). The value of H.K. score ranged between 24 and 42. The forecast found within quite usability range for most of the parameters but improvements are still possible. The correlation analysis showed that there was high correlation between observed and predicted values over the years. Hence, the forecast was found widely applicable among different user groups.

Block level weather forecast using direct model output from NWP models during monsoon season in India

The forecast for 655 districts and 6500 blocks had been prepared and implemented on 1st June, 2014. The procedure for getting forecast for the districts and blocks in India including altitude corrections is based upon regular (0.25 × 0.25) grid output from the T-574 Model and output from 9 km WRF model. A verification study for rainfall forecast at 0.25 × 0.25 degree grid for Indian Window (0-40° N and 60-100° N) is also conducted, which had indicated that skill of the rainfall forecast is good for all parts of the country except oceanic islands and high terrain regions and one can down scale to any level, down to the blocks, the skill scores will not differ much. A detailed verification study for the skill of the forecast at block level for all the eight weather parameters for which the forecast was issued is conducted. The skill of the rainfall forecast is obtained for categorical forecast and as well as for yes/no forecast. The skill scores for rainfall had indicated that highest value of Hanssen and Kuiper (HK) score is 0.44, Hanssen and Kuiper score for quantitative rainfall (HKQ) is 0.18, Ratio score for yes/no forecast is 90 percent and Hit rate (HR) is 0.83. The detailed verification study for the block level weather forecast for monsoon 2014 is presented in the paper and the skill found is good. The study indicates that model forecast has the potential to be used for the block level forecast after making the quick value additions for which hints are given in the conclusion part.

Is Social Media Spreading Misinformation on Exercise and Health in Brazil?

Instagram (IG) reaches millions of people, sharing personal content and all kinds of information, including those related to exercise and health. However, the scientific quality of the posted information is questionable. Thus, this study aimed to analyze whether exercise and health information posted by popular Brazilian IG influencers has technical-scientific accuracy. A personal IG account was created to identify Brazilian IG profiles. The inclusion criteria of the accounts were: (1) having 50% of all the shared posts related to topics about exercise and health, such as nutrition, health and wellness, medicine, or physical fitness; and (2) having over 100,000 followers. Qualitative analysis revealed a low quality percentage (38.79 ± 25.43%) for all analyzed posts. Out of all the posts, only 13 (~2.7%) cited a reference endorsing the information. Moreover, the higher quality-ratio score of the posts was not directly associated with the higher educational qualification of the influencers (r = 0.313; p = 0.076). Nevertheless, the number of followers was inversely correlated with the educational qualification of the influencers (r = −0.450; p = 0.009), but not with the quality-ratio score of the posts (r = −0.178 p = 0.322). We conclude that prominent Brazilian IG influencers disseminate low-quality information about exercise and health, contributing to the wide-spreading of misinformation to millions of followers.

Serum Glycocholic Acid-to-Total Bile Acid Ratio Is Independently Associated with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction and Aims. Bile acids play an essential role in the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study was aimed at investigating the association of the serum glycocholic acid- (GCA-) to-total bile acid (TBA) ratio with NAFLD in the general population. Materials and Methods. A total of 6708 subjects (2859 cases with NAFLD and 3849 controls) were enrolled in the development cohort and additional 1568 subjects (784 cases with NAFLD and 784 controls) in an independent validation cohort. Demographic characteristics and biochemical data were compared between subjects with NAFLD and controls. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association of the GCA-to-TBA ratio with NAFLD. A novel model incorporating the GCA-to-TBA ratio was developed for screening NAFLD from the general population. Results. The serum TBA and GCA levels were significantly higher in subjects with NAFLD than in those without NAFLD (2.8 (2.0-4.2) μmol/L vs. 2.5 (1.8-3.7) μmol/L and 1.30 (1.10-1.53) μg/mL vs. 1.28 (1.08-1.50) μg/mL, respectively, all p ≤ 0.01 ), whereas the serum GCA-to-TBA ratio was significantly lower in subjects with NAFLD than in subjects without NAFLD (0.44 (0.33-0.60) vs. 0.48 (0.36-0.64), p ≤ 0.01 ). Logistic regression analysis showed that the GCA-to-TBA ratio was independently associated with NAFLD after adjustment for confounding factors (odds ratio: 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-0.92, p ≤ 0.01 ). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the novel developed GCA-to-TBA ratio score model in discriminating NAFLD was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.83-0.85) in the development cohort and was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.36-0.65) in the validation cohort. Conclusion. The serum GCA-to-TBA ratio is independently associated with NAFLD. A simple novel model incorporating the GCA-to-TBA ratio score has a good performance in discriminating NAFLD from the general population.

Validation and comparison of non-invasive prediction models based on liver stiffness measurement to identify patients who could avoid gastroscopy

Several non‐invasive tests (NITs) based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) have been developed to rule out varices needing treatment (VNT), including the Baveno VI criteria (B6C), the expanded Baveno VI criteria (EB6C), the LSM-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score (LSPS), and the VariScreen algorithm. We aimed to validate and compare those NITs in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). This retrospective study enrolled 354 patients with cACLD; LSM, platelet count (PLT), international normalized ratio (INR), gastroscopy and spleen diameter (SD) were collected. VNT prevalence was 28.5%. In comparison, patients with VNT included higher LSM, INR, and SD and lower PLT. Gastroscopies were spared for 27.7% of patients using the B6C with 1.0% VNT missed rate, 47.2% of patients using the EB6C with 5.9% VNT missed rate, 57.6% of patients using the LSPS with 9.9% VNT missed rate, and 45.5% of patients using the VariScreen algorithm with 3.0% VNT missed rate. Only the B6C and the VariScreen algorithm could safely avoid gastroscopies, and the VariScreen algorithm spared more gastroscopies than the B6C. The results were consistent with the previous when performed subgroup analysis. In conclusion, the VariScreen algorithm performed the best and can be used in clinical.

The cut-off value of transient elastography to the value of hepatic venous pressure gradient in alcoholic cirrhosis

Background/Aims: The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) reflects portal hypertension, but its measurement is invasive. Transient elastography (TE) is a noninvasive method for evaluating liver stiffness (LS). We investigated the correlation between the value of LS, LS to platelet ratio (LPR), LS-spleen diameter-to-platelet ratio score (LSPS) and HVPG according to the etiology of cirrhosis, especially focused on alcoholic cirrhosis.Methods: Between January 2008 and March 2017, 556 patients who underwent HVPG and TE were consecutively enrolled. We evaluated LS, LPR, and LSPS according to the etiology of cirrhosis and analyzed their correlations with HVPG.Results: The LS value was higher in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis than viral cirrhosis based on the HVPG (43.5 vs. 32.0 kPa, P<0.001). There were no significant differences in the LPR or LSPS between alcoholic and viral cirrhosis groups, and the areas under the curves for the LPR and LSPS in subgroups according to HVPG levels were not superior to that for LS. In alcoholic cirrhosis, the LS cutoff value for predicting an HVPG ≥10 mmHg was 32.2 kPa with positive predictive value (PPV) of 94.5% and 36.6 kPa for HVPG ≥12 mmHg with PPV of 91.0%.Conclusions: The LS cutoff value should be determined separately for patients with alcoholic and viral cirrhosis. In alcoholic cirrhosis, the LS cutoff values were 32.2 and 36.6 kPa for predicting an HVPG ≥10 and ≥12 mmHg, respectively. However, there were no significant differences in the LPR or LSPS between alcoholic and viral cirrhosis groups.

The verifiability approach to deception detection: A Preregistered direct replication of the information protocol condition of Nahari, Vrij, and Fisher (2014)

Nahari, Vrij, and Fischer (2014) found that, when participants were forewarned that their statements would be checked for verifiable details, truth tellers gave much more verifiable details than liars (d = 1.14 [95% CI: 0.49; 1.78]). In this direct replication (n = 72), all participants wrote a statement claiming they had carried out their regular campus activities, whereas liars had actually stolen an exam. Statements were coded for verifiable details. Our primary prediction was confirmed: Truth tellers provided significantly more verifiable details than liars (d = 0.50 [95% CI: 0.02; 0.98]). Our secondary predictions - that liars would provide more unverifiable details than truth tellers, and that truth tellers would have a higher verifiable to unverifiable ratio score than liars - were not confirmed. We hope this will stimulate other independent investigations of VA to tell whether or not coding for verifiability will pass Ockham´s razor test.