The unfortunate regressivity of public natural disaster insurance: Quantifying distributional implications of EQC building cover for New Zealand

<p>This thesis examines the question “What have been the distributional implications of the setup of Earthquake Commission (EQC) building cover for New Zealand homeowners?” In New Zealand, the vast majority of property owners pay identical premiums for the benefit of the first $100,000 tranche of natural disaster cover per dwelling. The research provides a detailed quantification of the degree of regressivity of the scheme created by these flat premiums. Using EQC claims and property datasets relating to the Canterbury Earthquake Series, I test the hypothesis that wealthier homeowners are receiving more benefit. Wealth is identified by property value, income and a range of socio-economic variables collected from the most recent New Zealand Census before the earthquake series. In explaining EQC total dwelling payout by property value and by these socio-economic variables, the research shows there is a distributional implication to EQC’s building cover. This thesis includes a proposed modification to the premium structure of the scheme, whereby regressivity could be avoided. The research concludes with a survey of other public natural disaster insurance schemes worldwide, and identifies those likely to face similar regressivity issues.</p>

The unfortunate regressivity of public natural disaster insurance: Quantifying distributional implications of EQC building cover for New Zealand

<p>This thesis examines the question “What have been the distributional implications of the setup of Earthquake Commission (EQC) building cover for New Zealand homeowners?” In New Zealand, the vast majority of property owners pay identical premiums for the benefit of the first $100,000 tranche of natural disaster cover per dwelling. The research provides a detailed quantification of the degree of regressivity of the scheme created by these flat premiums. Using EQC claims and property datasets relating to the Canterbury Earthquake Series, I test the hypothesis that wealthier homeowners are receiving more benefit. Wealth is identified by property value, income and a range of socio-economic variables collected from the most recent New Zealand Census before the earthquake series. In explaining EQC total dwelling payout by property value and by these socio-economic variables, the research shows there is a distributional implication to EQC’s building cover. This thesis includes a proposed modification to the premium structure of the scheme, whereby regressivity could be avoided. The research concludes with a survey of other public natural disaster insurance schemes worldwide, and identifies those likely to face similar regressivity issues.</p>

Characteristics of the Vertical and Horizontal Response Spectra of Earthquakes in the Jeju Island Region

In this study, we evaluated the response spectra of 24 earthquake series, which includes 15 from the Kumamoto earthquake series and 9 from the Pohang earthquake series, and explored the effects of earthquake magnitude on the resonance frequencies of structures and buildings. Furthermore, the observations of this study were compared with the design response spectra, Regulatory Guide 1.60 (The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1973) for Korean nuclear power plants, and with the Korean Building Code (MOLIT, 2016, hereinafter referred to as KBC 2016) for general structures and buildings. The response spectra, after normalization with reference to the peak ground acceleration (PGA), were derived using a total of 423 horizontal and vertical accelerations. It was observed that the shapes of the horizontal and vertical response spectra were strongly dependent on the magnitude of the earthquake and the resonance frequency. Given the strong dependence of the response on the magnitude, it is suggested to consider magnitude > ML ~ 6.0 when establishing design response spectra. Compared to inland areas, a fairly higher amplitude of response at significantly lower frequency ranges could be attributed to the local geological environment of Jeju Island, which was formed by a surface volcano eruption and the distribution of unconsolidated Pleistocene marine sediments in the Jeju area. It is necessary to study the characteristic influence of layers with low shear wave velocity distributed in the Jeju region on seismic responses more rigorously while considering the frequency band and amplitudes at the surface of Jeju. The resonance frequencies of general low-rise and mid-rise buildings by the brief formula and those by design response spectra both suggested by KBC 2016 were overlapped, and these indicated that the seismic hazard could be much higher on general buildings in the Jeju region than in inland areas. Lastly, it is necessary to make the design standard criteria for Reg. Guide 1.60 and KBC 2016 more conservative in the lower frequency range of higher than 0.6 Hz and 2.0–6.0 Hz, respectively, which is significantly lower than those of the inland area, and to establish improved design response spectra with site-specific seismic design standards by referencing large amounts of qualitative data from the region around the Korean Peninsula.

Mengembalikan Image Pariwisata Lombok Paska Bencana

Era globalisasi dan teknologi berkontribusi terhadap bisnis pariwisata melampaui ekspor minyak, produk makanan sekaligus merupakan salah satu sumber pendapatan utama bagi banyak negara berkembang. Di bidang pelayanan, kekhasan pariwisata menampilkan dirinya sebagai industri utama untuk penggunaan dan inovasi teknologi. Tetapi di balik pertumbuhannya, muncul pula risiko iklim yang datang tanpa kompromi. Gempa Lombok merupakan awal dari rangkaian Gempa Lombok 2018 yang dipicu oleh aktivitas sesar naik di utara Lombok . Hal ini menelan banyak korban jiwa dan lebih dari 10.000 bangunan rusak. Berita kehancuran dan memukul pariwisata Lombok serta meneror wisatawan dalam merencanakan wisata ke Lombok, dengan cepat menyiarkan kabar hingga ke manca negara. Dampak ekonomi dari gempa, kerusakan hingga kerugian yang dialami pelaku usaha pariwisata dan pemulihan citra destinasi,membutuhkan pemulihan hinga bertahun-tahun. Makalah ini bermaksud untuk memperdalam kerusakan yang terjadi pada pulau Lombok, dengan menyarankan beberapa tindakan yang dapat meminimalkan efek dari bencana untuk menarik Kembali minat wisatawan sehingga memulihkan perekonomian Indonesia.Kata kunci: Manajemen krisis; Krisis Keselamatan dan Keamanan; Image Destinasi ABSTRACT The era of globalization and technology has contributed to the tourism business beyond the export of oil, food products and is one of the main sources of income for many developing countries. In the service sector, the specialty of tourism presents itself as a major industry for the use and innovation of technology. But behind its growth, there are also climate risks that come without compromise. The Lombok Earthquake was the beginning of the 2018 Lombok Earthquake series which was triggered by an upswing activity in the north of Lombok. This claimed many lives and damaged more than 10,000 buildings. News of the destruction and hit Lombok tourism as well as terrorizing tourists in planning tours to Lombok, quickly spread the news to foreign countries. The economic impact of the earthquake, the damage to the losses suffered by tourism business actors and the restoration of the image of the destination, requires years of recovery. This paper intends to deepen the damage done to the island of Lombok, by suggesting some actions that can minimize the effects of the disaster in order to re-attract tourists and thus restore the Indonesian economy.Keywords: Crisis management; Safety and Security Crisis; Destination Image

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Ground Deformation Due to 2018 Lombok Earthquake Series

Lombok Island in Indonesia was hit by four major earthquakes (6.4 Mw to 7 Mw) and by at least 818 earthquakes between 29 July and 31 August 2018. The aims of this study are to measure ground deformation due to the 2018 Lombok earthquake series and to map its spatio-temporal distribution. The application of DinSAR was performed to produce an interferogram and deformation map. Time series Sentinel-1 satellite imageries were used as master and slave for each of these four major earthquakes. The spatio-temporal distribution of the ground deformation was analyzed using a zonal statistics algorithm in GIS. It focused on the overlapping area between the raster layer of the deformation map and the polygon layer of six observation sites (Mataram City, Pamenang, Tampes, Sukadana, Sembalun, and Belanting). The results showed that the deformation includes uplift and subsidence. The first 6.4 Mw foreshock hitting on 29 July 2018 produces a minimum uplift effect on the island. The 7.0 Mw mainshock on 5 August 2018 causes extreme uplift at the northern shore. The 6.2 Mw Aftershock on 9 August 2018 generates subsidence throughout the study area. The final earthquake of 6.9 Mw on 19 August 2018 initiates massive uplift in the study area and extreme uplift at the northeastern shore. The highest uplift reaches 0.713 m at the northern shore, while the deepest subsidence is measured −0.338 m at the northwestern shore. Dominant deformation on the northern area of Lombok Island indicates movement of Back Arc Trust in the north of the island. The output of this study would be valuable to local authorities to evaluate existing earthquake’s impacts and to design mitigation strategies to face earthquake-induced ground displacement.

The preliminary inventory of coseismic ground failures related to December 2020 – January 2021 Petrinja earthquake series

The most recent major earthquake series struck near Petrinja (December 29th 2020 M 6.2), and triggered extensive ground failures in the wider area of Petrinja, Sisak and Glina. Coseismic ground failures including subsidence dolines, liquefaction and landslides have been documented over a large area by various experts and teams. These data are stored in the newly created inventory, which is openly presented in this paper. This inventory is administered and updated by the Croatian Geological Survey, and will be available online via a Web Map Service (WMS) (www.hgi-cgs.hr). The aim of the inventory is to not only provide data for the development of susceptibility maps and more detailed exploration for possible remediation measures, but also to define the priorities for immediate action. The earthquake triggered the rapid development of dropout dolines which endanger the local populations of the villages of Mečenčani and Borojevići. This is still an ongoing process in the vicinity of the houses and therefore in-situ exploration started immediately. Liquefaction related to alluvial sediments of the Sava, Kupa and Glina rivers occurred almost exclusively in loose and pure sands, and was accompanied by sand boils, subsidence and lateral spreading. Liquefaction also presents a greater hazard because settlement of houses and river embankments occurred. Lateral spreading caused failures of river flood embankments and natural river banks. According to the data known to date, the majority of the coseismic landslides were reactivated with minor displacements. Despite that, it has been recognised that houses at the edge, or in landslide colluvium suffered greater damage than other houses located outside the landslide impact zone.

Cascading Partial Rupture of the Flores Thrust during the 2018 Lombok Earthquake Sequence, Indonesia

A series of four Mw&gt;6 earthquakes struck the northern region of Lombok, eastern Indonesia, in a span of three weeks from late July to mid-August 2018. The series was thought to be associated with the Flores thrust, but the exact mechanism causing the unusual earthquake series has remained elusive. Our Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar analysis, combined with insights from seismology, indicates that the events originated at different hypocenter depths with differing fault geometries, which may explain the cascading behavior of the events, and indicates that better imaging of active fault geometry might provide some insight into future rupture behavior on other similar thrust systems. Our static stress change calculations suggest that the earlier events in the sequence played a role in promoting the later events. In addition, the second event brought the most significant impact on a nearby volcano, by causing volumetric expansion at its shallow magma plumbing system and unclamping its magma ascent zone, which may potentially have an impact on its future eruptive activity. However, no volcanic activity has so far occurred after the earthquakes. Finally, our damage proxy maps suggest that the second event caused the greatest damage to buildings.