Optimal Ordering Policy for Retailers with Bayesian Information Updating in a Presale System

In this study, we investigate inventory allocation and pricing strategies for retailers by incorporating demand information into the issue of inventory allocation during the presale period. In a presale system, retailers offer presale goods at a price lower than the retail price. By offering products at a discount, retailers may attract additional demand. In addition, this system enables retailers to reduce the uncertainty of market demand and establish a strategy for inventory allocation based on the results of presales. A Bayesian approach was employed to analyze and update demand information, and inventory allocation was formulated as a newsvendor problem to determine the optimal policy that maximizes retailer profit . A numerical analysis was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy. Results suggest that the proposed strategies can support retailers by more accurately predicting demand and achieving higher profits with less inventory. Furthermore, retailers can experience greater benefits from risk-averse customers than from risk-neutral customers.

Mobile Payment and Mobile Application (App) Behavior for Online Recommendations

A mobile application (App) is an application designed to run on a smartphone, tablet, or other mobile device. With the continuous change of mobile payment applications in smart phones and the support of the banking system, the global mobile payment population is increasing. This study examines the behaviors of Taiwan mobile payment and apps users, a total of 1,176 valid questionnaire data is divided into six sections with 29 items for a database design. This study develops a data mining approach, including clustering analysis and association rules, based on a relational database. Thus, this study shows that mobile payment not only can provide payment service but is also a critical mobile application platform for online business. Finally, we show that as users of mobile payment and apps gain additional demand and consumption ability, online operators can gradually put together mobile payment business models to enable future electronic commerce online recommendations.

Mobile payment and mobile applications (Apps) behaviors for online recommendations

A mobile application (App) is an application designed to run on a smartphone, tablet, or other mobile device. With the continuous change of mobile payment applications in smart phones and the support of the banking system, the global mobile payment population is increasing. This study examines the behaviors of Taiwan mobile payment and apps users, a total of 1,176 valid questionnaire data is divided into six sections with 29 items for a database design. This study develops a data mining approach, including clustering analysis and association rules, based on a relational database. Thus, this study shows that mobile payment not only can provide payment service but is also a critical mobile application platform for online business. Finally, we show that as users of mobile payment and apps gain additional demand and consumption ability, online operators can gradually put together mobile payment business models to enable future electronic commerce online recommendations.

Mechanical engineering as a growth driver economy of Kazakhstan

This article discusses the development of production processes in the context of integration, which makes it possible to increase the competitiveness of the industry, concentrate production, money and commodity capital, increase the speed of production, introduce innovations, produce products with high added value and enter the world markets. The features of the growth of the machine-building industry, which determine the energy and material consumption of the economy, labor productivity, the level of generation of innovations, the level of environmental safety of industrial production and the economic security of the country, are analyzed. Revealed and substantiated the need to focus on the “complication” of the national economy and diversification of those industries that give the maximum multiplier effect and high-quality economic growth. On the basis of the conducted research, the author proposes to activate the innovative development of mechanical engineering as a driver of industrialization in Kazakhstan. The need for the growth of domestic mechanical engineering, which provides the country's economy with means of production, promotes the development of all manufacturing industries, fuel and energy, transport and logistics, extractive sectors of the economy and agriculture is revealed and substantiated. On the basis of the study, the author proposes to highlight the multiplier effect, reflecting the degree of influence of a particular industry or sector on the growth of the economy as a whole by creating additional demand in other industries and sectors of the economy, and, consequently, jobs. The success of the development of mechanical engineering is determined in the proposed directions for increasing state support and stimulating the industry.

SP10.1.6 Benefit of Two week colorectal cancer referrals of patients who had colonic imaging within the last 5 years: do they improve the colorectal cancer outcome?

Purpose There has been a significant rise in the number of colorectal rapid access referrals. These referral results in additional demand for hospital services as well as delays assessment and management of other patients. We analyzed the outcome of colorectal fast tract clinic re- referrals on bowel cancer outcome in patients with recent colonic imaging. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1000 consecutive colorectal rapid access pathway referrals in 2019.Patients with complete colonic imaging within the preceding 5 years were included. We assessed their clinical outcome and colonic imaging when performed. Results In total, 82 (8.2%) patients out of 1000 met the selection criteria. Among these 12 patients (14%) did not need any further colonic investigations. A further 12 patients (14%) were already on the colorectal surveillance program, including a patient with recently diagnosed rectal cancer. Hence 24 patients (29.2%) referral was not indicated. 58 patients had further colonic imaging in the form of colonoscopy or virtual colonoscopy following clinic consultation. 32 (55.17%) of them had normal colonic imaging. 14 patients (24.1%) were identified with colorectal polyps with only one identified as tubular adenoma. The remaining 12 patients had non neoplastic pathology. Conclusion No new significant colorectal pathology was identified in this group of patients. We suggest that symptomatic patients who had complete colonic imaging within 5 years be referred to routine colorectal clinic in order to make the colorectal rapid access referral pathway more effective especially during these unprecedented times.

PP18 Is there provider induced demand at emergency departments with primary care services? Patient, local and wider system factors described to influence demand for primary care in emergency departments: realist evaluation

BackgroundEvidence from evaluations of emergency departments (EDs) with co-located primary care services suggests that they influence additional demand for non-urgent care (provider-induced demand). In a realist review of the literature on the effects of primary care services in EDs we proposed a theory that when primary care services are distinct at an ED they may encourage additional primary care demand and when primary care clinicians work indistinctly in the ED there is no additional demand. We aimed to explore evidence for this theory and explain contexts, mechanisms and outcomes that influence such demand.MethodsWe used realist evaluation methodology and carried out observations of key processes. We interviewed 23 patients, 21 ED clinical directors, 26 other ED staff members and 26 GPs at 13 EDs (England & Wales). Field notes and audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and analysed by creating context, mechanism and outcome configurations to refine and develop theories relating to provider induced demand.ResultsEDs with distinct primary care services were perceived to attract more demand for primary care than EDs where primary care clinicians worked indistinctly because the primary care service was visible, widely known about, enabled direct access, and received NHS 111 referrals. Other influences on demand were patients’ experiences of accessing primary care, the capacity for urgent care in the community, location of the ED and public transport links, service design and developments (new buildings, renovations) and population characteristics (unfamiliarity with local healthcare services, not registered with a GP or different cultural perceptions of seeking health care).ConclusionsA range of patient, local-system and wider-system factors contribute to additional demand at an ED with co-located primary care services. Our findings can inform providers and policymakers in developing strategies to limit the effect of these influences on additional demand.

Does sex composition of offspring relate to fertility in urban areas? The case of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

With the onset of the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa, couples’ desired number of children and the sex composition of offspring may become conflicted, with potential effects on future fertility. While intuitively expected, this effect has not been observed in studies in sub-Saharan Africa, where the level of fertility is higher than in other African regions. In this study, the hypothesis of a conflicted situation was examined by assessing the effect of sex composition of offspring on women’s intentions regarding additional children and their use of modern contraceptives. A mixed-method analysis was performed using quantitative data regarding 2567 women aged 35–49 years drawn from a 2012 Demtrend retrospective longitudinal population survey, supplemented by qualitative data collected through 23 in-depth interviews of men and women in Ouagadougou. Results showed that the absence of one sex (boy or girl) in the existing offspring was associated with additional demand for children and lower contraceptive use. These results suggest that a desire for a combination of both girls and boys may be the driving factor contributing to larger family size; that is, continued fertility may not be determined by son preference, but rather by overall composition of offspring, when existing children are all girls or all boys. This could explain the stalling of the fertility decline observed in recent years in Ouagadougou.

Management of Residues from Fruit Tree Pruning: A Trade-Off between Soil Quality and Energy Use

In the EU, bioenergy is by far the most significant renewable energy source and more than two thirds of biomass utilized for energy conversion consists of forestry and agricultural residues, such as fruit tree pruning. Although still underutilized, biomass from pruning is a relevant energy feedstock that does not generate additional demand for land, nor negative impact on the environment and biodiversity. On the other hand, previously shredded pruning left in the field may sustain agricultural processes and help provide beneficial ecological services. In the latter case, the most relevant result is the increase in soil organic carbon, an essential factor for improving soil quality and promoting climate regulation. As a result, a “dilemma” arises for farmers over two conflicting pruning management options: “pruning to energy” vs. “pruning to soil”, respectively. The present study, performed in the frame of the Horizon 2020 project “uP_running”, is offering a straightforward evaluation tool to assess weather biomass resulting from fruit tree pruning could be removed from the field and used as energy feedstock without compromising both soil quality and the provision of important ecosystem services.

Potentials of cultural-historical and tourism heritage for the development of tourism in the Timok region

In recent years, the term "industrial tourism" has been increasingly used in the literature. It describes an area that includes industrial monuments and abandoned buildings, and above all rare ones that are still in function. Industrial tourism includes all plants used for food processing, wood processing and textile industry, there are also mills, ports, mines, car and aviation industry, shipyards, etc. Within the doctoral dissertation entitled "Potentials of cultural-historical and economic heritage for the development of industrial tourism in the Timok region", a research was conducted that deals with the growing interest of industrial tourism in Eastern Serbia, more precisely in the Timok region. This branch of tourism is no longer a sphere of interest only for certain groups of technical experts, but also for regular tourists who are interested in touring certain regions. The aim of the research is to present the possibilities for the development of industrial tourism in the Timok region, as well as to obtain data on the current situation. The research is based on the experiential information of tourism workers who, due to the nature of their work and interests, are relevant to the proposed topic. The surveyed respondents are employed in the field of tourism in various positions, as well as students who are educated in the field of tourism. The data obtained during the research indicate respondents believe that the media do not sufficiently inform potential tourists about industrial tourism attractions, the potential of the tourist offer, but also about the Timok region itself, both locally and beyond, in Serbia and abroad. Such data indicate the possibility of improvement through the application of an adequate strategy to promote and inform potential users, as well as the insufficient usage of the industrial potential of the region itself. Investing certain resources in the marketing and development of industrial tourism would create additional demand, and this would result in the improvement of the tourist offer. Valorization of industrial heritage in Eastern Serbia can stimulate regional identity, revitalize the area and create additional tourist attractions. Plans and results from certain projects of this type are very important for the region, but also for the state.