Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints

Escalating burned area in western US forests punctuated by the 2020 fire season has heightened the need to explore near-term macroscale forest-fire area trajectories. As fires remove fuels for subsequent fires, feedbacks may impose constraints on the otherwise climate-driven trend of increasing forest-fire area. Here, we test how fire-fuel feedbacks moderate near-term (2021–2050) climate-driven increases in forest-fire area across the western US. Assuming constant fuels, climate–fire models project a doubling of forest-fire area compared to 1991–2020. Fire-fuel feedbacks only modestly attenuate the projected increase in forest-fire area. Even models with strong feedbacks project increasing interannual variability in forest-fire area and more than a two-fold increase in the likelihood of years exceeding the 2020 fire season. Fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks are unlikely to strongly constrain the profound climate-driven broad-scale increases in forest-fire area by the mid-21st century, highlighting the need for proactive adaptation to increased western US forest-fire impacts.

Forest Fire in East Nusa Tenggara during 2015-2019: Comparison to Forest Fire in Kalimantan and Sumatera

East Nusa Tenggara is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has big forest fires following some provinces in Kalimantan and Sumatra. However, forest fires in East Nusa Tenggara have less attention in forest fires discussion in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze forest fires in East Nusa Tenggara and their impact on reducing visibility and increasing carbon monoxide (CO) from 2015 to 2019. In this study, hotspot, forest fire area, Oceanic Niño Index, visibility, and CO total column data were used to analyze the forest fires using a statistical comparison method in East Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, and Sumatra. The result shows that the number of hotspots in East Nusa Tenggara less than in Kalimantan and Sumatra for the same forest fire area. The forest fires in East Nusa Tenggara do not harm the atmospheric environment significantly. East Nusa Tenggara dominantly consists of savanna areas with no peatland, hence, the forest biomass burning produces less smoke and CO. Furthermore, the forest fire in East Nusa Tenggara has not an impact on decreasing visibility and increasing CO total column, in contrast, visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan has fallen to 6 km from the annual average, and CO total column rise three times of normal condition during peak fire.

The Role of Community in Disaster Mitigation: The Case of Umbulharjo Merapi Monitoring Community on Merapi Mount, Indonesia

Natural disasters are events that often occur in Southeast Asia, including in Indonesia. As it is situated in the ring of fire area and has faced different kinds of natural disaster events, Indonesia has their own experiences in disaster risk management, one of which is the involvement and active role of the community. Therefore, this study will analyze the important role of Umbulharjo Merapi Monitoring Community (UMMC)––a community that focuses on monitoring Mount Merapi in the Special Region of Yogyakarta––that is committed as the provider of information regarding Merapi condition through a direct monitor and plays the role in initiating programs that focus on disaster mitigation. The results of this study aims to show that the role of the community is necessarily required in the mitigation program so that it can be a reference for disaster management models in disaster-prone areas in the Southeast Asian region. This study used a qualitative descriptive method and the data were obtained through an in-depth interview process involving community members, academicians and the government of Sleman Regency. The results of the study revealed that the disaster mitigation carried out by UMMC consisted of four stages that are: identification, analysis, treating, monitoring and evaluation. Through these four stages, several programs for disaster risk reduction are arranged, such as counselling, training, collaborating with stakeholders, and mentoring.

Unveiling the Factors Responsible for Australia’s Black Summer Fires of 2019/2020

The summer season of 2019–2020 has been named Australia’s Black Summer because of the large forest fires that burnt for months in southeast Australia, affecting millions of Australia’s citizens and hundreds of millions of animals and capturing global media attention. This extensive fire season has been attributed to the global climate crisis, a long drought season and extreme fire weather conditions. Our aim in this study was to examine the factors that have led some of the wildfires to burn over larger areas for a longer duration and to cause more damage to vegetation. To this end, we studied all large forest and non-forest fires (>100 km2) that burnt in Australia between September 2019 and mid-February 2020 (Australia’s Black Summer fires), focusing on the forest fires in southeast Australia. We used a segmentation algorithm to define individual polygons of large fires based on the burn date from NASA’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fires product and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burnt area product (MCD64A1). For each of the wildfires, we calculated the following 10 response variables, which served as proxies for the fires’ extent in space and time, spread and intensity: fire area, fire duration (days), the average spread of fire (area/days), fire radiative power (FRP; as detected by NASA’s MODIS Collection 6 active fires product (MCD14ML)), two burn severity products, and changes in vegetation as a result of the fire (as calculated using the vegetation health index (VHI) derived from AVHRR and VIIRS as well as live fuel moisture content (LFMC), photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and combined photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic vegetation (PV+NPV) derived from MODIS). We also computed more than 30 climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic variables based on remotely sensed derived variables, climatic time series and land cover datasets, which served as the explanatory variables. Altogether, 391 large fires were identified for Australia’s Black Summer. These included 205 forest fires with an average area of 584 km2 and 186 non-forest fires with an average area of 445 km2; 63 of the forest fires took place in southeast (SE) Australia (the area between Fraser Island, Queensland, and Kangaroo Island, South Australia), with an average area of 1097 km2. Australia’s Black Summer forest fires burnt for more days compared with non-forest fires. Overall, the stepwise regression models were most successful at explaining the response variables for the forest fires in SE Australia (n = 63; median-adjusted R2 of 64.3%), followed by all forest fires (n = 205; median-adjusted R2 of 55.8%) and all non-forest fires (n = 186; median-adjusted R2 of 48.2%). The two response variables that were best explained by the explanatory variables used as proxies for fires’ extent, spread and intensity across all models for the Black Summer forest and non-forest fires were the change in PV due to fire (median-adjusted R2 of 69.1%) and the change in VHI due to fire (median-adjusted R2 of 66.3%). Amongst the variables we examined, vegetation and fuel-related variables (such as previous frequency of fires and the conditions of the vegetation before the fire) were found to be more prevalent in the multivariate models for explaining the response variables in comparison with climatic and anthropogenic variables. This result suggests that better management of wildland–urban interfaces and natural vegetation using cultural and prescribed burning as well as planning landscapes with less flammable and more fire-tolerant ground cover plants may reduce fire risk to communities living near forests, but this is challenging given the sheer size and diversity of ecosystems in Australia.

Why Fire Sprinklers Should Not Be Required in Open Parking Structures

In the 2021 editions of the International Building Code (IBC) and International Fire Code (IFC), provisions were added by code change F110-18 to require automatic sprinkler protection in all open parking structures that exceed 48,000 square feet in fire area. Unfortunately, the technical documentation that was submitted to support such a drastic change to the building and fire codes did not meet the expected robustness to justify these new requirements. This white paper provides: • Historical background information on the fire experience in open parking structures. • A summary of the documentation used to require sprinkler protection for open parking structures in the 2021 IFC. • A review of the potential fire hazards in open parking structures. • An explanation of why this added expense for the construction of open parking structures is not justified.

FIRE CHARACTERISTICS OF ZAGROS FOREST ECOSYSTEM, KERMANSHAH PROVINCE, WESTERN IRAN

Fires are an integral part of many terrestrial biomes and a major source of disturbance in nature. The purpose of this study is to assess the causes and characteristics of fires in the Zagros ecosystem in ten consecutive years from 2011 to 2020. To conduct this research, wholly fire events that occurred in natural areas in the Gilan-e Gharb basin during the fire season detailed in a decade. In practice, immediately after informed of the occurrence of fires in natural areas, research data recorded. Totally, 233 event fires have occurred in the ten years from 2011 to 2020. The fire affected approximately 11,420 hectares of natural areas. The highest frequency of monthly fires during the months of the fire season includes 53, 44, and 40 events, which concern August, July, and September, respectively. The frequency of fires in different components of natural resources shows that the highest and the least frequency includes non-wooded pastures (44.6±5.6) and mixed Forest-rangeland (14.25±4.11). The most causes of fire in natural areas include recreation and hunting (43.3±16.1). The maximum frequency of the fire area includes <100 hectares’ classes (83.6±20.57). Most fires suppressed in a very short period (64.27±26.17). Daneh Khoshk, Nawdar, Poshteh, Peikoleh, Belaleh, Cheleh – Ghalajeh as well as Chikan regions include a high risk of fire. The issues connected to the fire are multidimensional. It deals with climatic and habitat factors, social issues, and the nature conservation culture institutionalization among the local people. To reduce the fire and the resulting damage, it is necessary to perform basic proceedings in whole fields.

EVALUASI KEJADIAN KEBAKARAN TAHUN 2019 DI KPH KAYU TANGI RPH PENGARON HUTAN LINDUNG LIANG ANGGANG

The aim of the study was to evaluate the fire incident at 2019 and identify the fuel charge in the Tangi wood RPH KPH from Liang Anggang Forest Reserve. The research location is conducted with the purpose of sampling at 5 points that occur fire incidents and in each tile a fire event created triangular plot made with 3 sizes 30 x 30 x 30 m, 10 x 10 x 10 m, and 1 x 1 m2 systematically. The fire incident was found at five research locations in the area of Liang Anggang protected Forest, consisting of 4 blocks I and 1 region in the Block II area. Plots 1, 2, 4, and 5 have been performed and the fire area is only in the most severe plots, while in the tile 3 the incidence area is very severe because no blackout activities are carried out there. The lost fuel load on block I and Block II in the 2019 is severe and can be categorized in high weather warnings even reaching extreme so that fire prone to fire occurs.Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi kejadian kebakaran tahun 2019 dan mengidentifikasi muatan bahan bakar di KPH Kayu Tangi RPH Pengaron Hutan Lindung Liang Anggang. Lokasi penelitian dilakukan secara purposive sampling pada 5 titik yang terjadi kejadian kebakaran dan pada masing-masing petak kejadian kebakaran dibuat plot segitiga yang dibuat dengan 3 ukuran yaitu 30 x 30 x 30 m, 10 x 10 x 10 m, dan 1 x 1 m2 secara sistematis. Kejadian kebakaran ditemukan pada lima lokasi penelitian di areal Hutan Lindung Liang Anggang, yang terdiri dari 4 di wilayah blok I dan 1 di wilayah blok II. Petak 1, 2, 4, dan 5 telah dilakukan pemadaman dan luasan kejadian kebakaran pun hanya pada petak 2 yang paling parah, sedangkan pada petak 3 areal kebakarannya sangatlah parah dikarenakan tidak ada kegiatan pemadaman yang dilakukan disana. Muatan bahan bakar yang hilang pada blok I dan blok II pada tahun 2019 sangatlah parah dan bisa dikategorikan dalam rambu pengukuran cuaca adalah tinggi bahkan mencapai ekstrim sehingga rawan terjadi kebakaran.