scholarly journals Quantifying transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of intervention within long-term healthcare facilities

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica E. Stockdale ◽  
Sean C. Anderson ◽  
Andrew M. Edwards ◽  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
Nicola Mulberry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Standard Methods ◽  
Risk Environments ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Level Model

Estimates of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for COVID-19 are particularly variable in the context of transmission within locations such as long-term healthcare (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterize the heterogeneity of R 0 across known outbreaks within these facilities. We used a unique comprehensive dataset of all outbreaks that occurred within LTHC facilities in British Columbia, Canada as of 21 September 2020. We estimated R 0 in 18 LTHC outbreaks with a novel Bayesian hierarchical dynamic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered individuals, incorporating heterogeneity of R 0 between facilities. We further compared these estimates to those obtained with standard methods that use the exponential growth rate and maximum likelihood. The total size of outbreaks varied dramatically, with range of attack rates 2%–86%. The Bayesian analysis provided an overall estimate of R 0 = 2.51 (90% credible interval 0.47–9.0), with individual facility estimates ranging between 0.56 and 9.17. Uncertainty in these estimates was more constrained than standard methods, particularly for smaller outbreaks informed by the population-level model. We further estimated that intervention led to 61% (52%–69%) of all potential cases being averted within the LTHC facilities, or 75% (68%–79%) when using a model with multi-level intervention effect. Understanding of transmission risks and impact of intervention are essential in planning during the ongoing global pandemic, particularly in high-risk environments such as LTHC facilities.

scholarly journals Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica E. Stockdale ◽  
Sean C. Anderson ◽  
Andrew M. Edwards ◽  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
Nicola Mulberry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Standard Methods ◽  
Risk Environments ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Care Facilities

AbstractEstimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in the context of transmission within locations such as long-term health care (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterise the heterogeneity of R0 across known outbreaks within these facilities. We used a unique comprehensive dataset of all outbreaks that have occurred within LTHC facilities in British Columbia, Canada. We estimated R0 with a Bayesian hierarchical dynamic model of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals, that incorporates heterogeneity of R0 between facilities. We further compared these estimates to those obtained with standard methods that utilize the exponential growth rate and maximum likelihood. The total size of an outbreak varied dramatically, with a range of attack rates of 2%–86%. The Bayesian analysis provides more constrained overall estimates of R0 = 2.19 (90% CrI [credible interval] 0.19–6.69) than standard methods, with a range within facilities of 0.48–10.08. We further estimated that intervention led to 57% (47%–66%) of all cases being averted within the LTHC facilities, or 73% (63%–78%) when using a model with multi-level intervention effect. Understanding the risks and impact of intervention are essential in planning during the ongoing global pandemic, particularly in high-risk environments such as LTHC facilities.

scholarly journals Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garyfallos Konstantinoudis ◽  
Tullia Padellini ◽  
James E Bennett ◽  
Bethan Davies ◽  
Majid Ezzati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Lower Layer ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Ecological Design ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Confounding Adjustment

Background: Recent studies suggested a link between long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality. However, due to their ecological design, based on large spatial units, they neglect the strong localised air-pollution patterns, and potentially lead to inadequate confounding adjustment. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 on COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 in England using high geographical resolution. Methods: We included 38 573 COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level in England (n=32 844 small areas). We retrieved averaged NO2 and PM2.5 concentration during 2014-2018 from the Pollution Climate Mapping. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effect of air-pollution while adjusting for a series of confounding and spatial autocorrelation. Findings: We find a 0.5% (95% credible interval: -0.2%-1.2%) and 1.4% (-2.1%-5.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate for every 1μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 respectively, after adjusting for confounding and spatial autocorrelation. This corresponds to a posterior probability of a positive effect of 0.93 and 0.78 respectively. The spatial relative risk at LSOA level revealed strong patterns, similar for the different pollutants. This potentially captures the spread of the disease during the first wave of the epidemic. Interpretation: Our study provides some evidence of an effect of long-term NO2 exposure on COVID-19 mortality, while the effect of PM2.5 remains more uncertain. Funding: Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Environmental Protection Agency and National Institutes of Health.

scholarly journals Addressing Challenges in Humanistic Communication During COVID-19 Through Medical Education

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shefali Amin ◽  
Justin Chin ◽  
Mark A. Terrell ◽  
Christine M. Lomiguen
Keyword(s):  
Medical Education ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Patient Interaction ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Insight Into

The current global pandemic due to COVID-19 has resulted in widespread lockdowns, social distancing, and other protective guidelines; these infectious control and mitigation measures challenge the medical system and create anxiety among all populations. In hospitals and healthcare facilities, patient interaction and shared decision making are sacrificed for fear of COVID-19 nosocomial spread. The intangible effects of human interaction with COVID-19 patients, whether of a physician or a patient’s family, are replaced with isolation amid ventilators. Medical professionals must find a way to practice life-saving medical care while maintaining humanistic and professional interactions. This article provides insight into the necessity and challenges of humanistic communication during COVID-19 across various institutions and offers both short- and long-term solutions and reforms through medical education.

Population fragmentation causes inadequate gene flow and increases extinction risk

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Frankham ◽  
Jonathan D. Ballou ◽  
Katherine Ralls ◽  
Mark D. B. Eldridge ◽  
Michele R. Dudash ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Flow ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Random Mating ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Isolated Population ◽  
Population Fragmentation ◽  
Single Population ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Limited Gene Flow

Most species now have fragmented distributions, often with adverse genetic consequences. The genetic impacts of population fragmentation depend critically upon gene flow among fragments and their effective sizes. Fragmentation with cessation of gene flow is highly harmful in the long term, leading to greater inbreeding, increased loss of genetic diversity, decreased likelihood of evolutionary adaptation and elevated extinction risk, when compared to a single population of the same total size. The consequences of fragmentation with limited gene flow typically lie between those for a large population with random mating and isolated population fragments with no gene flow.

scholarly journals Behavioral medicine challenges in the shadow of a global pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyssa T Brooks ◽  
Hannah K Allen ◽  
Louise Thornton ◽  
Tracy Trevorrow
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Health Behavior ◽  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Direct Effects ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Future Data ◽  
Short And Long Term

Abstract Health behavior researchers should refocus and retool as it becomes increasingly clear that the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic surpass the direct effects of COVID-19 and include unique, drastic, and ubiquitous consequences for health behavior. The circumstances of the pandemic have created a natural experiment, allowing researchers focusing on a wide range of health behaviors and populations with the opportunity to use previously collected and future data to study: (a) changes in health behavior prepandemic and postpandemic, (b) health behavior prevalence and needs amidst the pandemic, and (c) the effects of the pandemic on short- and long-term health behavior. Our field is particularly challenged as we attempt to consider biopsychosocial, political, and environmental factors that affect health and health behavior. These realities, while daunting, should call us to action to refocus and retool our research, prevention, and intervention efforts

scholarly journals Responses of Vertebrate Wildlife to Oil and Natural Gas Development: Patterns and Frontiers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Chalfoun
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Natural Gas Development ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

Abstract Purpose of Review Anthropogenic activities can lead to the loss, fragmentation, and alteration of wildlife habitats. I reviewed the recent literature (2014–2019) focused on the responses of avian, mammalian, and herpetofaunal species to oil and natural gas development, a widespread and still-expanding land use worldwide. My primary goals were to identify any generalities in species’ responses to development and summarize remaining gaps in knowledge. To do so, I evaluated the directionality of a wide variety of responses in relation to taxon, location, development type, development metric, habitat type, and spatiotemporal aspects. Recent Findings Studies (n = 70) were restricted to the USA and Canada, and taxonomically biased towards birds and mammals. Longer studies, but not those incorporating multiple spatial scales, were more likely to detect significant responses. Negative responses of all types were present in relatively low frequencies across all taxa, locations, development types, and development metrics but were context-dependent. The directionality of responses by the same species often varied across studies or development metrics. Summary The state of knowledge about wildlife responses to oil and natural gas development has developed considerably, though many biases and gaps remain. Studies outside of North America and that focus on herpetofauna are lacking. Tests of mechanistic hypotheses for effects, long-term studies, assessment of response thresholds, and experimental designs that isolate the effects of different stimuli associated with development, remain critical. Moreover, tests of the efficacy of habitat mitigation efforts have been rare. Finally, investigations of the demographic effects of development across the full annual cycle were absent for non-game species and are critical for the estimation of population-level effects.

scholarly journals COVID-19 related mortality in post-operative cardiac surgical patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Azhar Hussain ◽  
Amina Khalil ◽  
Priyanka Kolvekar ◽  
Prity Gupta ◽  
Shyamsunder Kolvekar
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Case Presentation ◽  
Elective Cardiac Surgery ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Cardiac Operations ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic of unprecedented proportions. Elective cardiac surgery has been universally postponed with only urgent and emergency cardiac operations being performed. The National Health Service in the United Kingdom introduced national measures to conserve intensive care beds and significantly limit elective activity shortly after lockdown. Case presentation We report two cases of early post-operative mortality secondary to COVID-19 infection immediately prior to the implementation of these widespread measures. Conclusion The role of cardiac surgery in the presence of COVID-19 is still very unpredictable and further studies on both short term and long term outcomes are warranted.

scholarly journals Advancement in long-distance bird migration through individual plasticity in departure

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse R. Conklin ◽  
Simeon Lisovski ◽  
Phil F. Battley
Keyword(s):  
Bird Migration ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Breeding Site ◽  
Environmental Constraints ◽  
Adaptive Responses ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Breeding Resources ◽  
Plastic Responses

AbstractGlobally, bird migration is occurring earlier in the year, consistent with climate-related changes in breeding resources. Although often attributed to phenotypic plasticity, there is no clear demonstration of long-term population advancement in avian migration through individual plasticity. Using direct observations of bar-tailed godwits (Limosa lapponica) departing New Zealand on a 16,000-km journey to Alaska, we show that migration advanced by six days during 2008–2020, and that within-individual advancement was sufficient to explain this population-level change. However, in individuals tracked for the entire migration (50 total tracks of 36 individuals), earlier departure did not lead to earlier arrival or breeding in Alaska, due to prolonged stopovers in Asia. Moreover, changes in breeding-site phenology varied across Alaska, but were not reflected in within-population differences in advancement of migratory departure. We demonstrate that plastic responses can drive population-level changes in timing of long-distance migration, but also that behavioral and environmental constraints en route may yet limit adaptive responses to global change.

scholarly journals Integrated photothermal decontamination device for N95 respirators

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Muñoz ◽  
Maxime Comtois-Bona ◽  
David Cortes ◽  
Cagla Eren Cimenci ◽  
Qiujiang Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Temperature Treatment ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Photothermal Treatment ◽  
Mild Temperature ◽  
N95 Respirators ◽  
Uv C

AbstractThe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for the COVID-19 global pandemic has infected over 25 million people worldwide and resulted in the death of millions. The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in a shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) in many regions around the world, particularly in middle- and low-income countries. The shortages of PPE, such as N95 respirators, is something that will persist until an effective vaccine is made available. Thus, devices that while being easy to operate can also be rapidly deployed in health centers, and long-term residences without the need for major structural overhaul are instrumental to sustainably use N95 respirators. In this report, we present the design and validation of a decontamination device that combines UV-C & B irradiation with mild-temperature treatment. The device can decontaminate up to 20 masks in a cycle of < 30 min. The decontamination process did not damage or reduce the filtering capacity of the masks. Further, the efficacy of the device to eliminate microbes and viruses from the masks was also evaluated. The photothermal treatment of our device was capable of eradicating > 99.9999% of the bacteria and > 99.99% of the virus tested.

scholarly journals Harnessing SmartPhones to Personalize Nutrition in a Time of Global Pandemic

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 422
Author(s):  
Niv Zmora ◽  
Eran Elinav
Keyword(s):  
Modern Technology ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Nutritional Interventions ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Healthy Nutrition ◽  
Food Diaries ◽  
Physical Interactions

The soar in COVID-19 cases around the globe has forced many to adapt to social distancing and self-isolation. In order to reduce contact with healthcare facilities and other patients, the CDC has advocated the use of telemedicine, i.e., electronic information and telecommunication technology. While these changes may disrupt normal behaviors and routines and induce anxiety, resulting in decreased vigilance to healthy diet and physical activity and reluctance to seek medical attention, they may just as well be circumvented using modern technology. Indeed, as the beginning of the pandemic a plethora of alternatives to conventional physical interactions were introduced. In this Perspective, we portray the role of SmartPhone applications (apps) in monitoring healthy nutrition, from their basic functionality as food diaries required for simple decision-making and nutritional interventions, through more advanced purposes, such as multi-dimensional data-mining and development of machine learning algorithms. Finally, we will delineate the emerging field of personalized nutrition and introduce pioneering technologies and concepts yet to be incorporated in SmartPhone-based dietary surveillance.

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