scholarly journals A Comparison of Global Surface Air Temperature Over the Oceans Between CMIP5 Models and NCEP Reanalysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xian Zhu ◽  
Tianyun Dong ◽  
Shanshan Zhao ◽  
Wenping He
Keyword(s):  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Ncep Reanalysis ◽  
The World ◽  
Mean Sea Surface ◽  
Zonal Average ◽  
Environmental Prediction

By utilizing eight CMIP5 model outputs in historical experiment that simulated daily mean sea surface temperature (SST) and NCEP reanalysis data over 12 ocean basins around the world from 1960 to 2005, this paper evaluates the performance of CMIP5 models based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data showed that the SST in most ocean basins of the world had long-range correlation (LRC) characteristics. The DFA values of the SST over ocean basins are large in the tropics and small in high latitudes. In spring and autumn, the zonal average DFA of SST are basically distributed symmetrically in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In summer, the zonal average values of DFA in the Northern Hemisphere are larger than those in the southern hemisphere, and vice versa in winter. The performance of HadGEM2-AO, CNRM-CM5, and IPSL-CM5A-MR are all relative well among the eight models in simulating SST over most regions of the global ocean.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP5 Models to Simulate Land Surface Air Temperature Based on Long-Range Correlation

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Zhao ◽  
Wenping He ◽  
Tianyun Dong ◽  
Jie Zhou ◽  
Xiaoqiang Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Distribution Characteristics ◽  
Scaling Exponents ◽  
Zonal Distribution ◽  
Range Correlation

The daily average land surface air temperature (SAT) simulated by 8 CMIP5 models historical experiments and that from NCEP data during 1960–2005, are used to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 model based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The DFA results of NCEP data show that SAT in most regions of the world exhibit long-range correlation. The scaling exponents of NCEP SAT show the zonal distribution characteristics of larg in tropics while small in medium and high latitudes. The distribution characteristics of the zonal average scaling exponents of CMCC-CMS, GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR are similar to that of NCEP data. From the DFA errors of model-simulated SAT, the performance of IPSL-CM5A-MR is the best among the 8 models throughout the year, the performance of FGOALS-g2 is good in spring and summer, GFDL-ESM2G is the best in autumn, CNRM-CM5 and CMCC-CMS is good in winter. The scaling exponents of model-simulated SAT are closer to that of NCEP data in most areas of the mid-high latitude on the northern hemisphere. However, simulations of SAT in East Asia and Central North American are generally less effective. In spring, most models have better performance in Siberian (SIB), Central Asia (CAS) and Tibetan (TIB). SAT in Northern Europe area are well simulated by most models in summer. In autumn, areas with better performance of most models are Mediterranean, SIB and TIB regions. In winter, SAT in Greenland, SIB and TIB areas are well simulated by most models. Generally speaking, the performance of CMIP5 models for SAT on global continents varies in different seasons and different regions.

scholarly journals Reanalysis data of wind fields above the caspian sea for Calculation of wind-induced waves

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 598-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. I. Lopatoukhin ◽  
N. A. Yaitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Research ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The World ◽  
Environmental Prediction

A database covering at least 30 years is required for calculation of the wind-induced waves mode in accordance with recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization. Continuous measurements of wind-induced waves for this period of time are missing or available only for a limited number of offshore strips. Typically this information is a result of calculations based on numerical (spectral) hydrodynamic models of the wind-induced waves while input data is information regarding wind from reanalyzes. Reanalysis can be used for calculation of wind-induced waves without any preliminary processing but not for all offshore zones. The Caspian Sea is used as an example to demonstrate an approach to revision of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data and study results are provided.

Long-term variation of water vapor content and precipitation in the Haihe river basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun Chang ◽  
Ping Feng ◽  
Fawen Li ◽  
Yunming Gao
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Water Vapor Content ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Annual Water ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
High Consistency ◽  
The Haihe River Basin

Based on the Haihe river basin National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data from 1948 to 2010 and the precipitation data of 53 hydrological stations during 1957–2010, this study analyzed the variation of water vapor content and precipitation, and investigated the correlation between them using several statistical methods. The results showed that the annual water vapor content decreased drastically from 1948 to 2010. It was comparatively high from the late 1940s to the late 1960s and depreciated from the early 1970s. From the southeast to the northwest of the Haihe river basin, there was a decrease in water vapor content. For vertical distribution, water vapor content from the ground to 700 hPa pressure level accounted for 72.9% of the whole atmospheric layer, which indicated that the water vapor of the Haihe river basin was mainly in the air close to the ground. The precipitation in the Haihe river basin during 1957–2010 decreased very slightly. According to the correlation analysis, the precipitation and water vapor content changes showed statistically positive correlation, in addition, their break points were both in the 1970s. Furthermore, the high consistency between the precipitation efficiency and precipitation demonstrates that water vapor content is one of the important factors in the formation of precipitation.

scholarly journals Subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Jin Kim ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Woosok Moon ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Jaeyoung Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Blocking High ◽  
Pressure Anomaly

AbstractThe subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) is re-examined using reanalysis data. Consistent with previous studies, a significant negative correlation is observed in cold season from November to February, but with a local minimum in late December. This relationship is dominated not only by the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which becomes more frequent during the last two decades, but also by the cold Arctic-warm Eurasia (CAWE) pattern. The budget analyses reveal that both WACE and CAWE patterns are primarily driven by the temperature advection associated with sea level pressure anomaly over the Ural region, partly cancelled by the diabatic heating. It is further found that, although the anticyclonic anomaly of WACE pattern mostly represents the Ural blocking, about 20% of WACE cases are associated with non-blocking high pressure systems. This result indicates that the Ural blocking is not a necessary condition for the WACE pattern, highlighting the importance of transient weather systems in the subseasonal Arctic-Eurasian SAT co-variability.

scholarly journals Retrieval of Layer Averaged Relative Humidity Profiles from MHS Observations over Tropical Region

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. K. Gangwar ◽  
B. S. Gohil ◽  
A. K. Mathur
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Atmospheric Layer ◽  
Ncep Reanalysis ◽  
Microwave Humidity Sounder ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Profile Errors ◽  
Humidity Profiles

The present paper deals with the retrieval of the atmospheric layer averaged relative humidity profiles using data from the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) onboard the MetOp satellite. The retrieval has been innovatively performed by firstly retrieving humidity for pairs of thick overlapping layers (TOLs) used subsequently to derive humidity for associated thin isolated layer (TIL). A water vapour dependent (WVD) algorithm has been developed and applied to infer the humidity of TOLs. Thus, the retrieved profiles have been finally compared with standard algorithm (NORM). These algorithms have been developed based on radiative transfer simulations and study of sensitivities of MHS channels on humidity of various types of layers (TOL, TIL). The algorithm has been tested with MHS data and validated using concurrent radiosonde as well as NCEP reanalysis data indicating profile errors of ~15% and ~19%, respectively.

Evaluating temperature extremes in CMIP6 simulations using statistically proper evaluation methods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thordis Thorarinsdottir ◽  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Marion Haugen ◽  
Nadine Gissibl ◽  
Marit Sandstad
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Near Surface

<p>Reliable projections of extremes in near-surface air temperature (SAT) by climate models become more and more important as global warming is leading to significant increases in the hottest days and decreases in coldest nights around the world with considerable impacts on various sectors, such as agriculture, health and tourism.</p><p>Climate model evaluation has traditionally been performed by comparing summary statistics that are derived from simulated model output and corresponding observed quantities using, for instance, the root mean squared error (RMSE) or mean bias as also used in the model evaluation chapter of the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Both RMSE and mean bias compare averages over time and/or space, ignoring the variability, or the uncertainty, in the underlying values. Particularly when interested in the evaluation of climate extremes, climate models should be evaluated by comparing the probability distribution of model output to the corresponding distribution of observed data.</p><p>To address this shortcoming, we use the integrated quadratic distance (IQD) to compare distributions of simulated indices to the corresponding distributions from a data product. The IQD is the proper divergence associated with the proper continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as it fulfills essential decision-theoretic properties for ranking competing models and testing equality in performance, while also assessing the full distribution.</p><p>The IQD is applied to evaluate CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of monthly maximum (TXx) and minimum near-surface air temperature (TNn) over the data-dense regions Europe and North America against both observational and reanalysis datasets. There is not a notable difference between the model generations CMIP5 and CMIP6 when the model simulations are compared against the observational dataset HadEX2. However, the CMIP6 models show a better agreement with the reanalysis ERA5 than CMIP5 models, with a few exceptions. Overall, the climate models show higher skill when compared against ERA5 than when compared against HadEX2. While the model rankings vary with region, season and index, the model evaluation is robust against changes in the grid resolution considered in the analysis.</p>

EL NINO EFFECTS ON THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE ACCORDING TO CMIP5 MODELS AND REANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-23
Author(s):  
M. A. Kolennikova ◽  
◽  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
D. Yu. Gushchina ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Coupled Climate Models

The response of the Arctic stratosphere to El Nio is studied with account of its Eastern and Central Pacific types for the period of 1950-2005. The study is based on the regression and composite analysis using the simulations with six CMIP5 coupled climate models and reanalysis data.

Trends in phytoplankton communities within large marine ecosystems diverge from the global ocean

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Kevin D. Friedland ◽  
John R. Moisan ◽  
Aurore A. Maureaud ◽  
Damian C. Brady ◽  
Andrew J. Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll Concentration ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Large Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Phytoplankton Communities ◽  
The World

Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) are highly productive regions of the world ocean under anthropogenic pressures; we analyzed trends in sea surface temperature (SST), cloud fraction (CF), and chlorophyll concentration (CHL) over the period 1998–2019. Trends in these parameters within LMEs diverged from the world ocean. SST and CF inside LMEs increased at greater rates inside LMEs, whereas CHL decreased at a greater rates. CHL declined in 86% of all LMEs and of those trends, 70% were statistically significant. Complementary analyses suggest phytoplankton functional types within LMEs have also diverged from those characteristic of the world ocean, most notably, the contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates, which have declined within LMEs. LMEs appear to be warming rapidly and receiving less solar radiation than the world ocean, which may be contributing to changes at the base of the food chain. Despite increased fishing effort, fishery yields in LMEs have not increased, pointing to limitations related to productivity. These changes raise concerns over the stability of these ecosystems and their continued ability to support services to human populations.

scholarly journals Regional and local variations in atmospheric aerosols using ground-based sun photometry during Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) in 2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (22) ◽  
pp. 14795-14803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itaru Sano ◽  
Sonoyo Mukai ◽  
Makiko Nakata ◽  
Brent N. Holben
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Aerosol Dynamics ◽  
Aerosol Mass ◽  
Combined Use ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Observation Networks

Abstract. Aerosol mass concentrations are affected by local emissions as well as long-range transboundary (LRT) aerosols. This work investigates regional and local variations of aerosols based on Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON). We constructed DRAGON-Japan and DRAGON-Osaka in spring of 2012. The former network covers almost all of Japan in order to obtain aerosol information in regional scale over Japanese islands. It was determined from the DRAGON-Japan campaign that the values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) decrease from west to east during an aerosol episode. In fact, the highest AOT was recorded at Fukue Island at the western end of the network, and the value was much higher than that of urban areas. The latter network (DRAGON-Osaka) was set as a dense instrument network in the megalopolis of Osaka, with a population of 12 million, to better understand local aerosol dynamics in urban areas. AOT was further measured with a mobile sun photometer attached to a car. This transect information showed that aerosol concentrations rapidly changed in time and space together when most of the Osaka area was covered with moderate LRT aerosols. The combined use of the dense instrument network (DRAGON-Osaka) and high-frequency measurements provides the motion of aerosol advection, which coincides with the wind vector around the layer between 700 and 850 hPa as provided by the reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

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