Pengaruh Mesoscale Convective System terhadap Hujan Ekstrem Pesisir Barat Sumatra

Tulisan ini merupakan studi awal yang membuktikan pengaruh Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) terhadap curah hujan (CH) ekstrem di pesisir barat Sumatra dengan menggunakan citra rapidscan 10 menit Himawari-8 kanal IR1. Untuk mendapatkan data yang berkualitas, penulis melakukan koreksi data CH penakar Hellman terhadap data standar CH di Moelaboh (MLH), Sibolga (SBG), Teluk Bayur (TBR) dan Bengkulu (BKL) serta koreksi paralaks data citra Himawari-8. Dalam mengidentifikasi MCS, penulis menggunakan kriteria brightness temperature (BT) ≤ 221 derajat kelvin (K), luasan BT ≥ 10.000 km2 dan durasi ≥ 3 jam. Hasil penelitian mengindikasikan bahwa CH ekstrem bersamaan dengan keberadaaan MCS yang membuktikan bahwa CH ekstrem diakibatkan oleh MCS di MLB, SBG, TBR dan BKL. MCS tersebut sangat dipengaruhi oleh kemunculan Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) yang terhalangi oleh Bukit Barisan untuk kasus CH ekstrem di SBG dan TBR atau berinteraksi dengan angin pasat tenggara dari Samudra Hindia sebelah barat daya Sumatra untuk kasus CH ekstrem di BKL. Untuk kaus CH ekstrem di MLB, MCS terbentuk akibat interaksi angin pasat di Samudra Hindia sebelah barat Sumatra dan aliran siklonik sebelah barat MLB. This paper was a preliminary study that proved the impact of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) on extreme rainfall on the west coast of Sumatra using rapid scan imagery of 10 minutes Himawari-8 channel IR1. To get qualified data, we conducted the correction of rainfall data of Hellman gauge to the rainfall standard data in Moelaboh (MLH), Sibolga (SBG), Teluk Bayur (TBR), and Bengkulu (BKL) and the parallax correction to Himawari-8 imagery data. To identify MCS, we used brightness temperature (BT) ≤ 221 K, BT area ≥ 10.000 km2 and duration ≥ 3 hours as the criteria. The results indicated that extreme rainfall occured simultaneously with MCS proved that the extreme rainfall caused by MCS in MLB, SBG, TBR, and BKL. The MCS was greatly influenced by the appearance of westerly wind burst (WWB) which was blocked by Bukit Barisan for extreme rainfall cases in SBG and TBR or interacted with the southeast trade winds of the Indian Ocean in the southwest of Sumatra for extreme rainfall case in BKL. For extreme rainfall case in MLB, MCS was formed due to the interaction of trade winds of the Indian Ocean in the west of Sumatra and cyclonic flow in the west of MLB.

Nonlinear Zonal Propagation of Organized Convection in the Tropics

A wide range of the observed variability in the ITCZ is frequently explained in terms of equatorially trapped modes arising from Matsuno’s linear shallow-water model. Here, a series of zonally constant, meridionally symmetric aquachannel WRF simulations are used to study the propagation of tropical cloud clusters (CCs; patches of deep cloudiness and precipitation) in association with eastward-moving super cloud clusters (SCCs), also called convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). Two independent but complementary methods are used: the first, from a local approach, involves a CC-tracking algorithm, while the second uses Lagrangian trajectories in a nonlocal framework. We show that the large-scale flow in low to midlevels advects the CCs either eastward or westward depending on model climatology, proximity to the CCKW axis, and latitude. Moreover, for most analyzed cases, sequences of CCs oscillate, describing qualitatively sinusoidal-like paths in longitude–time space, although with sharp transitions from westward to eastward motion due to westerly wind burst activity associated with the CCKWs. We also find that the discrete precipitation elements (CCs) are embedded in continuous tracks of positive moisture anomalies, which are parallel to the Lagrangian trajectories themselves. A conceptual model of the nonlinear SCC–CC interaction is presented.

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Its Parameterization in an Idealized GCM for an MJO Analog above the Equator

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) typically contains several superclusters and numerous embedded mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It is hypothesized here that the poorly simulated MJOs in current coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs) is related to the inadequate treatment of unresolved MCSs. So its parameterization should provide the missing collective effects of MCSs. However, a satisfactory understanding of the upscale impact of MCSs on the MJO is still lacking. A simple two-dimensional multicloud model is used as an idealized GCM with clear deficiencies. Eddy transfer of momentum and temperature by the MCSs, predicted by the mesoscale equatorial synoptic dynamics (MESD) model, is added to this idealized GCM. The upscale impact of westward-moving MCSs promotes eastward propagation of the MJO analog, consistent with the theoretical prediction of the MESD model. Furthermore, the upscale impact of upshear-moving MCSs significantly intensifies the westerly wind burst because of two-way feedback between easterly vertical shear and eddy momentum transfer with low-level eastward momentum forcing. Finally, a basic parameterization of the upscale impact of upshear-moving MCSs modulated by deep heating excess and vertical shear strength significantly improves key features of the MJO analog in the idealized GCM with clear deficiencies. A three-way interaction mechanism between the MJO analog, parameterized upscale impact of MCSs, and background vertical shear is identified.

Examining Tropical Cyclone–Kelvin Wave Interactions Using Adjoint Diagnostics

The initial-state sensitivity and interactions between a tropical cyclone and atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the DYNAMO field campaign are explored using adjoint-based tools from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The development of Tropical Cyclone 5 (TC05) coincided with the passage of an equatorial Kelvin wave (KW) and westerly wind burst associated with an MJO that developed in the Indian Ocean in late November 2011. COAMPS 18-h adjoint sensitivities of low-level kinetic energy to changes in initial state winds, temperature, and water vapor are analyzed for both TC05 and the KW to document when the evolution of each system is sensitive to the other. Time series of sensitivity patterns confirm that TC05 and the KW low-level westerlies are sensitive to each other when the KW is to the southwest and south of TC05. While TC05 is not sensitive to the KW after this, the KW low-level westerlies remain sensitive to TC05 until it enters the far eastern Indian Ocean. Vertical profiles of both TC05 and KW sensitivity indicate lower-tropospheric maxima in temperature, wind, and moisture, with KW sensitivity typically 20% smaller than TC05 sensitivity. The magnitude of the sensitivity for both systems is greatest just prior to, and during, their closest proximity. A case study examination reveals that adjoint-based optimal perturbations grow and expand quickly through a dynamic response to decreased static stability. The evolution of moist-only and dry-only initial perturbations illustrates that the moist component is primarily responsible for the initial rapid growth, but that subsequent growth rates are similar.

Extreme Noise–Extreme El Niño: How State-Dependent Noise Forcing Creates El Niño–La Niña Asymmetry

A major open question about El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is what causes ENSO amplitude asymmetry, with strong El Niños generally larger than strong La Niñas. The authors examine a leading hypothesis—that the ENSO state modifies the fetch and/or wind speed of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that create asymmetric forcing and an asymmetric ENSO response. Further, in El Niño forecasts, the number of WWBs expected increases in the month following a strong WWB when compared with the month preceding it. Using a conceptual model, a relationship is derived between the magnitude of the westerly wind burst state dependence on ENSO and ENSO asymmetry. It is found that this relationship between the magnitude of the state dependence and ENSO asymmetry holds in both the observations and 21 coupled climate models. Finally, it is found that because of state-dependent westerly wind burst forcing, extreme El Niño events tend to be of the eastern Pacific variety.

Dynamics of the ITCZ Boundary Layer

This paper presents high-resolution numerical solutions of a nonlinear zonally symmetric slab model of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) boundary layer. The boundary layer zonal and meridional flows are forced by a specified pressure field, which can also be interpreted as a specified geostrophically balanced zonal wind field ug(y). One narrow on-equatorial peak in boundary layer pumping is produced when the forcing is easterly geostrophic flow along the equator and two narrow peaks in boundary layer pumping are produced on opposite sides of the equator (a double ITCZ) when the forcing is westerly geostrophic flow along the equator. In the case when easterlies are surrounding a westerly wind burst, once again a double ITCZ is produced, but the ITCZs have significantly more intense boundary layer pumping than the case of only westerly geostrophic flow. A comparison of the numerical solutions to those of classical Ekman theory suggests that the meridional advection term υ(∂υ/∂y) plays a vital role in strengthening and narrowing boundary layer pumping regions while weakening and broadening boundary layer suction regions.

COASTAL UPWELLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY WIND BURST IN THE NORTH OF PAPUA CONTINENT, WESTERN PACIFIC

Coastal upwelling play an important role in biological productivity and the carbon cycle in the ocean. This research aimed to examine the phenomenon of coastal upwelling that occur in the coastal waters north of Papua continent under the influence of Westerly Wind Burst(WWB) prior to the development of El Nino in the Pacific. Data consisted of sea surface temperature, vertical oceanic temperature, ocean color satellite image, wind stress and vector wind speed image, sea surface high, and Nino 3.4 index. Coastal upwelling events in the northern coastal waters of Papua continent occurred in response to westerly winds and westerly wind burst (WWBs) during December to March characterizing by low sea surface temperature (SST) (25 - 28C), negative sea surface high deviation and phytoplankton blooming, except during pre-development of the El Nino 2006/2007 where weak upwelling followed by positive sea surface high deviation. Strong coastal upwelling occurred during two WWBs in December and March1996/1997 with maximum wind speed in March produced a strong El Nino 1997/1998. Upwelling generally occurred along coastal waters of Jayapura to Papua New Guinea with more intensive in coastal waters north of Papua New Guinea indicated by Ekman transport and Ekman layer depth maximum.

Genesis of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) from a Westerly Wind Burst Associated with the MJO. Part II: Roles of Deep Convection in Tropical Transition

In this study, the life cycles of a series of four major mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during genesis and their roles in transforming a vertically tilted vortex associated with a westerly wind burst (hereafter the WWB vortex) into Typhoon Chanchu (2006) are examined using 11-day cloud-resolving simulations presented in Part I. It is found that the tilted WWB vortex at early stages is characterized by an elevated cold-core layer (about 200 hPa thick) below and a weak warm column above with large vertical wind shear across the layer, which extends over a horizontal distance of about 450 km between the vortex’s 400- and 900-hPa centers. During the final two days of the genesis process, the upper-level warm column increases in depth and intensity as a result of the absorption of convectively generated vortices (CGVs), including a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), causing more rapid amplification of cyclonic vorticity in the middle than the lower troposphere. The commencement of sustained intensification of Chanchu occurs when the upper-level warm column is vertically aligned with the surface-based warm-core vortex. Results show that four unique MCSs develop in succession on the downtilt-right side of the WWB vortex. The first MCS develops as a squall line with trailing stratiform precipitation and an MCV; subsequent MCSs include a convective cluster whose shape changes from an inverted U to a question mark and finally a spiral rainband as the WWB vortex decreases its vertical tilt. Strong cold pools are favored behind the leading connective lines during the earlier tilted-vortex stages due primarily to dry intrusion by the midlevel sheared flows, whereas few cold downdrafts occur at later stages as the WWB vortex becomes more upright and sufficiently moist. The authors conclude that the roles of the MCSs during genesis are to (a) generate cyclonic vorticity and then store it mostly in the midtroposphere, after merging CGVs within the WWB vortex; (b) moisten the low- and midlevels; (c) enhance the northward displacement of the WWB vortex; and (d) reduce the vertical tilt of the WWB vortex.

Genesis of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) from a Westerly Wind Burst Associated with the MJO. Part I: Evolution of a Vertically Tilted Precursor Vortex

Although previous studies have shown the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclogenesis (TCG), many scale-interactive processes leading to TCG still remain mysterious. In this study, the larger-scale flow structures and evolution during the pregenesis, genesis, and intensification of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) near the equator are analyzed using NCEP’s final analysis, satellite observations, and 11-day nested numerical simulations with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast model (ARW-WRF). Results show that the model could reproduce the structures and evolution of a synoptic westerly wind burst (WWB) associated with the MJO during the genesis of Chanchu, including the eastward progression of a WWB from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific Ocean, the modulation of the associated quasi-symmetric vortices, the initial slow spinup of a northern (pre-Chanchu) disturbance at the northeastern periphery of the WWB, and its general track and intensification. It is found that the MJO, likely together with a convectively coupled Kelvin wave, provides the necessary low-level convergence and rotation for the development of the pre-Chanchu disturbance, particularly through the eastward-propagating WWB. The incipient vortex evolves slowly westward, like a mixed Rossby–gravity wave, on the northern flank of the WWB, exhibits a vertically westward-tilted circulation structure, and eventually moves northward off of the equator. Results show that the interaction of the tilted vortex with moist easterly flows assists in the downtilt-right (i.e., to the right of the upward tilt) organization of deep convection, which in turn forces the tilted vortex to move toward the area of ongoing deep convection, thereby helping to partly decrease the vertical tilt with time. It is shown that despite several days of continuous convective overturning, sustained surface intensification does not commence until the vortex becomes upright in the vertical. A conceptual model is finally presented, relating the decreasing vortex tilt to convective development, storm movement, TCG, and surface intensification.