Statistical and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Electricity Consumption Forecasting in the Brazilian Industrial Sector

Forecasting the industry’s electricity consumption is essential for energy planning in a given country or region. Thus, this study aims to apply time-series forecasting models (statistical approach and artificial neural network approach) to the industrial electricity consumption in the Brazilian system. For the statistical approach, the Holt–Winters, SARIMA, Dynamic Linear Model, and TBATS (Trigonometric Box–Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal components) models were considered. For the approach of artificial neural networks, the NNAR (neural network autoregression) and MLP (multilayer perceptron) models were considered. The results indicate that the MLP model was the one that obtained the best forecasting performance for the electricity consumption of the Brazilian industry under analysis.

Forecasting model of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia: An application of time series approach using neural network

COVID-19 has spread to more than a hundred countries worldwide since the first case reported in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. As one of the countries affected by the spread of COVID-19 cases, the local government of Malaysia has issued several policies to reduce the spread of this outbreak. One of the measures taken by the Malaysian government, namely the Movement Control Order, has been carried out since March 18, 2020. In order to provide precise information to the government so that it can take the appropriate measures, many researchers have attempted to predict and create the model for these cases to identify the number of cases each day and the peak of this pandemic. Therefore, hospitals and health workers can anticipate a surge in COVID-19 patients. In this research, confirmed, recovered, and death cases prediction was performed using the neural network as one of the machine learning methods with high accuracy. The neural network model used is the Multi-Layer Perceptron, Neural Network Auto-Regressive, and Extreme Learning Machine. The three models calculated the average percentage error (APE) values for 7 days and obtained APE values for most cases less than 10%; only 1 case in the last day of one method had an APE value of approximately 11%. Furthermore, based on the best model, then the forecast is made for the next 7 days. In conclusion, this study identified that the MLP model is the best model for 7-step ahead forecasting for confirmed, recovered, and death cases in Malaysia. However, according to the result of testing data, the ELM performs better than the MLP model.

Influence of Atmospheric Scattering on the Accuracy of Laser Altimetry of the GF-7 Satellite and Corrections

Satellite laser altimetry can obtain sub-meter or even centimeter-scale surface elevation data over large areas, but it is inevitably affected by scattering caused by clouds, aerosols, and other atmospheric particles. This laser ranging error caused by scattering cannot be ignored. In this study, we systematically combined existing atmospheric scattering identification technology used in satellite laser altimetry and observed that the traditional algorithm cannot effectively estimate the laser multiple scattering of the GaoFen-7 (GF-7) satellite. To solve this problem, we used data from the GF-7 satellite to analyze the importance of atmospheric scattering and propose an identification scheme for atmospheric scattering data over land and water areas. We also used a look-up table and a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model to identify and correct atmospheric scattering, for which the availability of land and water data reached 16.67% and 26.09%, respectively. After correction using the MLP model, the availability of land and water data increased to 21% and 30%, respectively. These corrections mitigated the low identification accuracy due to atmospheric scattering, which is significant for facilitating satellite laser altimetry data processing.

Prediction Power of Logistic Regression (LR) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Models in Exploring Driving Forces of Urban Expansion to Be Sustainable in Estonia

Estonia mainly experienced urban expansion after regaining independence in 1991. Employing the CORINE Land Cover dataset to analyze the dynamic changes in land use/land cover (LULC) in Estonia over 28 years revealed that urban land increased by 33.96% in Harju County and by 19.50% in Tartu County. Therefore, after three decades of LULC changes, the large number of shifts from agricultural and forest land to urban ones in an unplanned manner have become of great concern. To this end, understanding how LULC change contributes to urban expansion will provide helpful information for policy-making in LULC and help make better decisions for future transitions in urban expansion orientation and plan for more sustainable cities. Many different factors govern urban expansion; however, physical and proximity factors play a significant role in explaining the spatial complexity of this phenomenon in Estonia. In this research, it was claimed that urban expansion was affected by the 12 proximity driving forces. In this regard, we applied LR and MLP neural network models to investigate the prediction power of these models and find the influential factors driving urban expansion in two Estonian counties. Using LR determined that the independent variables “distance from main roads (X7)”, “distance from the core of main cities of Tallinn and Tartu land (X2)”, and “distance from water land (X11)” had a higher negative correlation with urban expansion in both counties. Indeed, this investigation requires thinking towards constructing a balance between urban expansion and its driving forces in the long term in the way of sustainability. Using the MLP model determined that the “distance from existing residential areas (X10)” in Harju County and the “distance from the core of Tartu (X2)” in Tartu County were the most influential driving forces. The LR model showed the prediction power of these variables to be 37% for Harju County and 45% for Tartu County. In comparison, the MLP model predicted nearly 80% of variability by independent variables for Harju County and approximately 50% for Tartu County, expressing the greater power of independent variables. Therefore, applying these two models helped us better understand the causative nature of urban expansion in Harju County and Tartu County in Estonia, which requires more spatial planning regulation to ensure sustainability.

Integration of allocentric and egocentric visual information in a convolutional / multilayer perceptron network model of goal-directed gaze shifts

Allocentric (landmark-centered) and egocentric (eye-centered) visual codes are fundamental for spatial cognition, navigation, and goal-directed movement. Neuroimaging and neurophysiology suggest these codes are segregated initially, but then reintegrated in frontal cortex for movement control. We created and validated a theoretical framework for this process using physiologically constrained inputs and outputs. To implement a general framework, we integrated a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) of the visual system with a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model of the sensorimotor transformation. The network was trained on a task where a landmark shifted relative to the saccade target. These visual parameters were input to the CNN, the CNN output and initial gaze position to the MLP, and a decoder transformed MLP output into saccade vectors. Decoded saccade output replicated idealized training sets with various allocentric weightings, and actual monkey data where the landmark shift had a partial influence (R2 = 0.8). Furthermore, MLP output units accurately simulated prefrontal response field shifts recorded from monkeys during the same paradigm. In summary, our model replicated both the general properties of the visuomotor transformations for gaze and specific experimental results obtained during allocentric-egocentric integration, suggesting it can provide a general framework for understanding these and other complex visuomotor behaviors.

Improving surface melt estimation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet using deep learning: a proof of concept over the Larsen Ice Shelf

Accurately estimating the surface melt volume of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is challenging and has hitherto relied on climate modeling or observations from satellite remote sensing. Each of these methods has its limitations, especially in regions with high surface melt. This study aims to demonstrate the potential of improving surface melt simulations with a regional climate model by deploying a deep learning model. A deep-learning-based framework has been developed to correct surface melt from the regional atmospheric climate model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2), using meteorological observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs) and surface albedo from satellite imagery. The framework includes three steps: (1) training a deep multilayer perceptron (MLP) model using AWS observations, (2) correcting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo observations, and (3) using these two to correct the RACMO2 surface melt simulations. Using observations from three AWSs at the Larsen B and C ice shelves, Antarctica, cross-validation shows a high accuracy (root-mean-square error of 0.95 mm w.e. d−1, mean absolute error of 0.42 mm w.e. d−1, and a coefficient of determination of 0.95). Moreover, the deep MLP model outperforms conventional machine learning models and a shallow MLP model. When applying the trained deep MLP model over the entire Larsen Ice Shelf, the resulting corrected RACMO2 surface melt shows a better correlation with the AWS observations for two out of three AWSs. However, for one location (AWS 18), the deep MLP model does not show improved agreement with AWS observations; this is likely because surface melt is largely driven by factors (e.g., air temperature, topography, katabatic wind) other than albedo within the corresponding coarse-resolution model pixels. Our study demonstrates the opportunity to improve surface melt simulations using deep learning combined with satellite albedo observations. However, more work is required to refine the method, especially for complicated and heterogeneous terrains.

A Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Model to Classify Hypertension in Adolescents Using Anthropometric Measurements: A Cross-Sectional Study in Sarawak, Malaysia

This study outlines and developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model for adolescent hypertension classification focusing on the use of simple anthropometric and sociodemographic data collected from a cross-sectional research study in Sarawak, Malaysia. Among the 2,461 data collected, 741 were hypertensive (30.1%) and 1720 were normal (69.9%). During the data gathering process, eleven anthropometric measurements and sociodemographic data were collected. The variable selection procedure in the methodology proposed selected five parameters: weight, weight-to-height ratio (WHtR), age, sex, and ethnicity, as the input of the network model. The developed MLP model with a single hidden layer of 50 hidden neurons managed to achieve a sensitivity of 0.41, specificity of 0.91, precision of 0.65, F -score of 0.50, accuracy of 0.76, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) of 0.75 using the imbalanced data set. Analyzing the performance metrics obtained from the training, validation and testing data sets show that the developed network model is well-generalized. Using Bayes’ Theorem, an adolescent classified as hypertensive using this created model has a 66.2% likelihood of having hypertension in the Sarawak adolescent population, which has a hypertension prevalence of 30.1%. When the prevalence of hypertension in the Sarawak population was increased to 50%, the developed model could predict an adolescent having hypertension with an 82.0% chance, whereas when the prevalence of hypertension was reduced to 10%, the developed model could only predict true positive hypertension with a 33.6% chance. With the sensitivity of the model increasing to 65% and 90% while retaining a specificity of 91%, the true positivity of an adolescent being hypertension would be 75.7% and 81.2%, respectively, according to Bayes’ Theorem. The findings show that simple anthropometric measurements paired with sociodemographic data are feasible to be used to classify hypertension in adolescents using the developed MLP model in Sarawak adolescent population with modest hypertension prevalence. However, a model with higher sensitivity and specificity is required for better positive hypertension predictive value when the prevalence is low. We conclude that the developed classification model could serve as a quick and easy preliminary warning tool for screening high-risk adolescents of developing hypertension.

In Silico Drug Repurposing for Anti-Inflammatory Therapy: Virtual Search for Dual Inhibitors of Caspase-1 and TNF-Alpha

Inflammation involves a complex biological response of the body tissues to damaging stimuli. When dysregulated, inflammation led by biomolecular mediators such as caspase-1 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) can play a detrimental role in the progression of different medical conditions such as cancer, neurological disorders, autoimmune diseases, and cytokine storms caused by viral infections such as COVID-19. Computational approaches can accelerate the search for dual-target drugs able to simultaneously inhibit the aforementioned proteins, enabling the discovery of wide-spectrum anti-inflammatory agents. This work reports the first multicondition model based on quantitative structure–activity relationships and a multilayer perceptron neural network (mtc-QSAR-MLP) for the virtual screening of agency-regulated chemicals as versatile anti-inflammatory therapeutics. The mtc-QSAR-MLP model displayed accuracy higher than 88%, and was interpreted from a physicochemical and structural point of view. When using the mtc-QSAR-MLP model as a virtual screening tool, we could identify several agency-regulated chemicals as dual inhibitors of caspase-1 and TNF-alpha, and the experimental information later retrieved from the scientific literature converged with our computational results. This study supports the capabilities of our mtc-QSAR-MLP model in anti-inflammatory therapy with direct applications to current health issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Development of a Machine Learning Classifier for Brain Tumors Diagnosis Based on DNA Methylation Profile

Background: More than 150 types of brain tumors have been documented. Accurate diagnosis is important for making appropriate therapeutic decisions in treating the diseases. The goal of this study is to develop a DNA methylation profile-based classifier to accurately identify various kinds of brain tumors.Methods: Thirteen datasets of DNA methylation profiles were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, of which GSE90496 and GSE109379 were used as the training set and the validation set, respectively, and the remaining 11 sets were used as the independent test set. The random forest algorithm was used to select the CpG sites based on the importance of the features and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model was trained to classify the samples. Deconvolution with the debCAM package was used to explore the cellular composition difference among tumors.Results: From training datasets with 2,801 samples, 396,568 CpG sites were retained after preprocessing, of which 767 were selected as the modeling features. A three-layer MLP model was developed, which consists of 1,320 nodes in the hidden layer, to predict the histological types of brain tumors. The prediction accuracy is 99.2, 87.0, and 96.58%, respectively, on the training, validation and test sets. The results of deconvolution analysis showed that the cell proportions of different tumor subtypes were different, and it is approximately enough to distinguish different tumor entities.Conclusion: We developed a classifier that is robust for the classification of central nervous system tumors, and tried to analyze the reasons for the classification performance.