A scenario analysis under epistemic uncertainty in Natech accidents: imprecise probability reasoning in Bayesian Network

The increasing frequency and severity of Natech accidents warn us to investigate the occurrence mechanism of these events. Cascading disasters chain magnifies the impact of natural hazards due to its propagation through critical infrastructures and socio-economic networks. In order to manipulate imprecise probabilities of cascading events in Natech scenarios, this work proposes an improved Bayesian network （BN） combining with evidence theory to better deal with epistemic uncertainty in Natech accidents than traditional BNs. Effective inference algorithms have been developed to propagate system faulty in a socio-economic system. The conditional probability table (CPT) of BN in the traditional probability approach is modified by utilizing an OR/AND gate to obtain the belief mass propagation in the framework of evidence theory. Our improved Bayesian network methodology makes it possible to assess the impact and damage of Natech accidents under the environment of complex interdependence among accidents with insufficient data. Finally, a case study of Guangdong province, an area prone to natural disasters, is given. The modified Bayesian network is carried out to analyze this area’s Natech scenario. After diagnostic analysis and sensitivity analysis of human factors and the natural factor, we are able to locate the key nodes in the cascading disaster chain. Findings can provide useful theoretical support for urban managers of industrial cities to enhance disaster prevention and mitigation ability.

The Reshaping Oil and Arms Trade between the United States and GCC: Is the Theory of Complex Interdependence Still Prevailing?

This paper makes use of interdependence theory to analyse the historical development of the economic relations between the GCC countries and the United States. The focus will be on oil and arms trade between the GCC countries and the United States. The results show that while the military and security dependence of the GCC countries on the United States remains relatively intact, the dependence of the United States on the natural resources of the GCC region has decreased. In light of this, the paper suggests that the historical interdependence between the GCC countries and the United States has recently evolved into a unilateral dependence and that the GCC countries’ natural resources are directed towards Asian countries.

Assessment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Significance of the First Beijing Summit (2000) to Africa

This study assessed FOCAC and the significance of the first Beijing Summit resolutions to Africa. The paper adopted developmental research design and qualitative method of data collection by means of secondary data. The study also leveraged on complex interdependence theory as a framework for analysis. The study found out that the Beijing Summit resolution to Africa organized in the year 2000 laid the foundation of mutual cooperation and assistance for the forum on China-Africa cooperation. Assessing the significance of the summit in consonance with the aims and objectives of FOCAC, as highlighted at the summit, it was found out that the summit was significant not only in the areas of debt cancellation and establishment of African human resource development fund and investment, but also in the areas of boosting rapid development of overall cooperation, leading a new type of international cooperation with Africa, promoting democratization of international relations and improving global governance on the principle of win-win cooperation. The paper lamented that there are some challenges faced by FOCAC and recommendations were provided.

Kashmir dispute: Emerging complexities after abrogation of Article 370

Kashmir dispute is one of the contentious issues between India and Pakistan since their inception as independent states in 1947. This paper addresses this dispute that how it has been a primary cause of contention between India and Pakistan. How is it a huge humanitarian crises in the South Asia and ultimately the cause of a bulk of defence expenditures by India and Pakistan. Nonetheless, both the countries realize that the problem of Kashmir can and should be resolved through peaceful negotiations to reach a non-military solution. Both the states continue giving it a central importance in their internal and external policies. This resultant peaceful cooperation between the two nuclear powers is a central part of complex interdependence theory, which is used in this paper for analysing the issue. Thus, the paper investigates the Kashmir conflict and the cooperation between India and Pakistan to seek a peaceful resolution. The paper qualitatively assesses the situation emerged in the Kashmir after the abolishment of Article 370, for which some key people are interviewed. The findings show that the unilateral abrogation of the article 370 by the Modi government that changed the status of Kashmir further intensified the conflict and undermined the peaceful efforts made so far.

Comparing COVID-19 risk factors in Brazil using machine learning: the importance of socioeconomic, demographic and structural factors

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a devastating impact on Brazil. Brazil’s social, health and economic crises are aggravated by strong societal inequities and persisting political disarray. This complex scenario motivates careful study of the clinical, socioeconomic, demographic and structural factors contributing to increased risk of mortality from SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil specifically. We consider the Brazilian SIVEP-Gripe catalog, a very rich respiratory infection dataset which allows us to estimate the importance of several non-laboratorial and socio-geographic factors on COVID-19 mortality. We analyze the catalog using machine learning algorithms to account for likely complex interdependence between metrics. The XGBoost algorithm achieved excellent performance, producing an AUC-ROC of 0.813 (95% CI 0.810–0.817), and outperforming logistic regression. Using our model we found that, in Brazil, socioeconomic, geographical and structural factors are more important than individual comorbidities. Particularly important factors were: The state of residence and its development index; the distance to the hospital (especially for rural and less developed areas); the level of education; hospital funding model and strain. Ethnicity is also confirmed to be more important than comorbidities but less than the aforementioned factors. In conclusion, socioeconomic and structural factors are as important as biological factors in determining the outcome of COVID-19. This has important consequences for policy making, especially on vaccination/non-pharmacological preventative measures, hospital management and healthcare network organization.

INDIA’S ROLE IN KAZAKHSTAN’S MULTI-VECTOR FOREIGN POLICY

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan’s economy was weak since most of the industrial enterprises were located in Russia. To attain economic growth, Kazakhstan crafted a unique foreign policy known as the multi-vector foreign policy, which facilitated an easy inflow of direct foreign investments into the state economy. After economic liberalization in 1991, India took a serious interest in Central Asia, and since then the two nations have come a long way marked by complex interdependence in the international arena. They have demonstrated a successful and sustained upward trend in their bilateral relationship through soft power, trade and long-standing historical connections. Thus, the prospects of mutual cooperation between Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, and India are quite promising in the near future.

The Evolving State of the State in International Political Economy

Three established conceptions of the nation-state have a long and well-established tradition in the field of International Political Economy (IPE), each aligning with a major research paradigm within IPE or the broader field of international relations: realism, open economy politics, and constructivism. A fourth, emerging, research paradigm called the “New Interdependence Approach” or the “Political Economy of Complex Interdependence” offers a promising new conceptualization of the nation-state that encompasses the best insights offered by traditional paradigms. This article reviews the evolution of scholarly thinking about the nation-state within the field of IPE and proposes a new, more encompassing conception of the nation-state as a cross-section of the international political economy multiplex.