28. Threats to the Existing Global Order: Challenges from the East

This chapter considers challenges from Russia, North Korea, and China. The first section describes Vladimir Putin’s acquisition and retention of power, and his antagonistic approach towards former members of the Soviet Union. Russia’s rift with the West was exacerbated by its annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Syria. The second section discusses tensions arising from North Korea’s nuclear policy, and attempts by Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un to achieve a lasting peace agreement. The third section examines the economic growth of China, the development of its international role since joining the WTO, its increasing military strength, and its foreign policy. The chapter concludes with an assessment of the opportunities and the geopolitical risks for Asia and China while the influence of the United States, European Union, and Russia wanes.

26. Conflict and Chaos in the Middle East

This chapter examines the unrest across the Middle East in the 2010s. The first section focuses on the civil war in Syria and the role of so-called Islamic State., examining the causes of the Syrian uprising and the development of protests against President Assad into civil war. It describes the growth of Jihadism, formation of Ahrar al-Sham, and emergence of ISIS, and the subsequent declaration of a Caliphate. The escalation and destructive impact of the conflict is examined in the context of increasing international intervention and the involvement of foreign powers in both exacerbation of the conflict and efforts to restore peace. The second section describes the growing regional importance of Iran alongside the 2015 nuclear deal and tensions with Saudi Arabia. The chapter concludes with the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Egypt, conflict in Yemen, and the downfall of Gaddafi in Libya.

25. Economic Problems in the West and the Economic Rise of China in the East

This chapter examines the shift in global balance that began in the post-2007 economic crisis. For a considerable time before the 2008 crisis, the United States and most European states had been living on high levels of debt both national and individual, public and private. Manufacturing in the developed West, and its provision of secure jobs for many workers, was undermined by the new economic environment of globalization, as well as the growth of cheaper manufacturing in China and the other BRIC countries. A new epoch of financial capitalism, which had emerged since the 1980s, was in full swing by the start of the Noughties. The chapter first considers the post-2007 economic crisis, before discussing the continuing rise of China and Russian foreign policy under Vladimir Putin. It concludes with an assessment of international reactions to China’s rise, including those of East Asia, international organizations, and Taiwan.

24. The War in Iraq

This chapter focuses on the Iraq war of 2003–11 and the troubles in the Middle East. George W. Bush’s advisers, led by Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld, had been considering an attack on Iraq well before 9/11. At the same time, many experts within the government pointed to the lack of any evidence for Iraqi-sponsored terrorism directed against the United States. The threats to US national security were outlined to Bush in a briefing just prior to his inauguration; these threats came primarily from al-Qaeda’s terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear arms and other weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The chapter first considers the US decision to invade Iraq, before discussing the war, taking into account the US’s Operation Iraqi Freedom and the war’s costs to the US and to Iraq. It also examines the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and concludes with an assessment of the ‘Arab Spring’.

18. Instability in Latin America

This chapter examines the reasons for the instability in Latin America during the Cold War. The oil crisis of 1973–4, followed by trade deficits, depression, and high inflation, helped promote revolutionary ideas among the landless peasants and urban poor of many Latin American countries. Under Jimmy Carter, with his interest in promoting human rights, a more active and enlightened US policy towards Latin America might have been expected. However, his aims were inconsistent, as the moral cause of human rights clashed with local realities and other American interests. The chapter first considers the Reagan Doctrine and Ronald Reagan’s meddling in El Salvador before discussing the involvement of the US in Nicaragua and the ‘Contragate’ scandal. It concludes with an assessment of the US invasions of Grenada and Panama.

6. Maintaining the Spheres of Influence

This chapter examines how the United States and the Soviet Union tried to maintain their respective spheres of influence during the Cold War, especially in three regions: Eastern Europe, Western Europe, and Latin America. The death of Joseph Stalin and the assumption of power by the triumvirate of Lavrenti Beria, Nikita Khrushchev, and Georgi Malenkov resulted in a fresh approach to domestic issues and to the nature of Soviet control over its European satellites. The apparent change produced a new Soviet approach to East–West relations. The chapter first considers how the new Soviet leadership addressed the crisis in East Germany before analysing American influence in Western Europe and US relations with Latin America. The discussion covers themes and events such as the Soviet policy on Hungary and Poland, the Messina Conference and the Spaak Committee, nuclear cooperation and multilateral force, and the US response to the Cuban Revolution.

5. Soviet–American Relations: Avoiding Hot War and the Search for Stability

This chapter examines US–Soviet relations during the Cold War as well as the question of the genuineness of efforts by the United States and the Soviet Union to achieve disarmament and resolve troublesome disputes. It begins with a discussion of the German question, noting that Germany’s future position was vital to the future of Europe and a particular concern of the Soviets. It then considers the progress of arms control and peace efforts by the United States and the Soviet Union, before concluding with an analysis of the relationship of arms control to the use of armaments in hot war and to some aspects of fighting the Cold War.

27. Threats to the Existing Global Order: Instability in the West

This chapter examines significant challenges to the status quo in the West. President Obama’s domestic success was the extension of health care, while the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis resulted in heavy electoral losses for the Democrats in 2010. Nevertheless, he secured a second term in 2012 after some foreign policy successes, including arms reduction with Russia and the death of Osama bin Laden. Ultimately, Obama’s preference for diplomacy over force allowed Russia and Iran to fill the vacuum in Syria. Donald Trump became the oldest US president following the 2016 election. Controversially, he challenged conventional wisdom on climate change, free trade, and NATO, while sympathising with Brexit and Vladimir Putin. The aftermath of the 2008 crash, the failure of neo-liberalism, UK austerity, and Eurozone instability are examined in the second section. The chapter concludes with the reasons for the Brexit referendum, the result, and its consequences.

20. Europe and the Former Soviet Union

This chapter examines important developments in Europe and the former Soviet Union. The collapse of communism paved the way for the greatest changes in Europe since 1919, with the political disintegration of three Eurasian countries: the then USSR, with localized outbreaks of violence; Yugoslavia, with several years of bloody civil war; and Czechoslovakia, where the Czechs and Slovaks peacefully agreed to go their own way as of January 1993, in the so-called ‘velvet divorce’. Communism’s demise also brought reunification to a divided nation: Germany. The chapter first considers the German reunification, before discussing the break-up of the USSR and the Wars of Succession, Yugoslavia’s break-up and the Bosnian War, NATO and European security, and the emergence of the European Union, which replaced the European Community.

19. The Decline of the Cold War, 1985–9

This chapter examines the decline of the Cold War during the period 1985–9. It begins with a discussion of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s ‘new diplomacy’, a more flexible, less ideological foreign policy based on his belief that ‘a less confrontational stance towards the outside world would provide greater security than endless rearming’. It then considers Gorbachev’s reforms, the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty signed in December 1987 by Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, and US–Soviet relations under George H. W. Bush and Gorbachev. It also analyses the end of the Cold War in less developed countries such as Afghanistan, Angola, and Cambodia, before concluding with an assessment of the demise of Soviet communism in Eastern Europe.