Risk-Based Analysis and Decision Making in Multi-Disciplinary Environments

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multidisciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings: 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concerns are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information-objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and/or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

Optical (Camera-Based) Technology for Seismic Risk Assessment

Due to an increasing bandwidth for data transport in recent computers, optical (camera-based) sensors with high frame rates and reasonable resolutions can nowadays be used with off-the-shelf computers. By monitoring buildings, bridges and other infrastructure with such sensors, they can greatly assist in risk assessment. In this paper, several field application examples are described, largely encompassing the areas of civil infrastructure monitoring. Optical (camera-based) systems can be particularly powerful for monitoring both local and global movements within a scene or environment. Therefore, natural hazards induced by such movements, for example during earthquake events, are an important application area for these new technologies. First, a clear definition of seismic risk assessment is provided. Subsequently, two important fields where cameras may be useful in seismic risk assessment are described. Specifically, the context of (i) early warning systems and (ii) post-earthquake assessment are addressed. An example of using the optical record from a series of large shake table tests is provided and comparison with other methods discussed.

The Importance of Inherently Safer Processes to Site Security

Inherently safer processes (ISP) have become increasingly more important in recent years, specifically since the terrorist events of September 2001. New emphasis on site security and vulnerability has made it imperative for the chemical industry to view new and existing processes in a creative way. The tools available in designing an inherently safer process will allow industry to make these changes. “We ought, when possible, to be removing hazards rather than controlling them” (Kletz [1]). The concepts of inherent safety will be reviewed with specific examples with site security implications. For example the in-situ intermediate generation of methyl isocyanate (MIC) is a striking example of the concept of minimization and is of particular interest, since after the Bhopal incident, large quantities of MIC would be a target for terrorism. Other examples such as in-situ generation of phosgene use of aqueous ammonia instead of anhydrous, and elimination of chlorine cylinders in water treatment will be discussed with site security implications. The concepts used to create these inherently safer designs can then be integrated into existing process safety management programs to improve the overall safety of the chemical industry.

Managing a Major Curriculum Reform Effort in a Large Research University

This paper describes a substantive undergraduate curriculum reform effort being undertaken over a five year period at the University of Texas at Austin, with special consideration to the management issues that are being addressed. The initiative, called Project PROCEED (for Project-Centered Education), grew out of a desire to strengthen our student’s understanding of fundamental engineering theory by continuously tying it to tangible objects and systems, to strengthen our Department’s connections with its industrial stakeholders by actively involving them in the development and delivery of curriculum content, and to provide our students with a broad range of team-based experiences which will better prepare them for growth and leadership in the corporate and professional world. The rationale for PROCEED and key program elements are described. Management issues, such as logistics, promoting faculty and student buy-in, financing, industrial interaction, and program evaluation are discussed.

Analytical Approaches to Address Homeland Security Issues

Homeland security concerns arising since September 11, 2001, have captured national attention and sparked a number of responses at all levels of government. As events have unfolded and the nature of the situation has become better understood within the US, the need for effective planning and response has resulted in the identification of significant analytical challenges. These challenges relate to a number of different needs, including the following: • estimating the probability and the potential impact of various threats, • identifying the need for and effectiveness of specific counter-measures, and • assessing the combined results of interacting activities and events. Analytical approaches traditionally used for safety engineering and risk analysis, coupled with analytical approaches borrowed from other systems analysis disciplines, can be usefully adapted to help meet these challenges. This paper identifies and discusses several illustrative examples of the analytical challenges currently being faced with respect to homeland security. Linkages are then examined between these specific challenges and traditional analytical approaches from a variety of disciplines, including safety engineering and risk analysis. Since effective cooperation among responsible agencies and organizations has been identified as an issue of concern and is essential to achieve an effective homeland security strategy and response capability, issues relating to multiple interacting activities are specifically highlighted.

Using Risk Analysis to Identify Cost Effective Improvements to a Semiconductor Fabrication Chemical Distribution Facility

In today’s semiconductor industry, the business loss associated with one full day of lost production can have a significant impact on revenues. Key factors affecting overall profitability are unplanned fabrication downtimes and contamination resulting in defective products. It is critical, therefore, to implement effective risk management strategies for the fabrication process to eliminate yield-limiting defects and to improve the overall production. This paper will discuss a study completed for a semiconductor chemical supplier. Battelle applied a methodology based on the Process Event Tree/Hazard and Operability Study (PET-HAZOP) methodology, identifying numerous ways to avoid unnecessary outages and lost production at a specific client’s semiconductor fabrication facility. This methodology uses a systematic approach to identifying risks in a process, and risks are quantified in terms of expected dollars per year. Within the analysis, the importance of individual equipment items in the process is measured with respect to risk. Two risk measures are used in the analysis: Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) and Risk Achievement Worth (RAW). The RRW identifies opportunities for areas of risk reduction and the RAW identifies critical equipment that must be maintained to prevent the overall risk of the system from increasing significantly. Results were provided in a cost-benefit form for the top items on the RRW and RAW lists. For example, replacing existing chemical distribution pumps with completely non-metallic pumps (cost of about $60,000) would result in savings, due to avoidance of possible chemical contamination, of $430,000 per year. This, and other findings, proved that a systematic approach to evaluating risks for the semiconductor front-end process can identify valuable risk reduction alternatives resulting in significant cost savings.

Entry Level Mechanical Engineering CAD Skills Assessments and Improvements

This paper presents information and discussion with respect to CAD skills for mechanical engineers entering the industrial environment. CAD systems are now an integral part of the functioning of virtually all engineering departments. This paper discusses how critical these systems have become to the practice of mechanical design and engineering. Naturally, then, CAD system skills become a consideration during the hiring of mechanical engineers. In order to deal with this situation, companies have considered or implemented CAD system skills assessments. The author investigates some of these assessments. Based on this investigation, a set of “core” skills or issues is presented which should be part of assessments or general hiring expectations. The core skills are not centered on specific CAD system software, but on general principles and practices that are essential to using these systems effectively.

A Design Approach to Risk Engineering

This article discuss the characteristics of the risk engineering process that would need to be generated in order to properly bring a designed system to market. First, the current status of risk engineering will be discussed from a design perspective by defining and explaining what is meant by key words such as “risk” and “risk engineering process”. The general goals of the risk engineering process for an example fuel cell-based distributed cogeneration system (FC-Based DCG) will be noted before finally discussing the specific objectives, functions, procedure, & expected results of the risk engineering process for the system.

Industry Focused Courses Utilizing Collaborative Learning Approach

Industry focused, full semester Courses A “Industry and Information Systems” and B “Overview of the Market and Introduction to Marketing” are lectured by the lead author at Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Technology (TMIT). In these courses, overview of the global and Japanese economies and trends of each industry sector are introduced by the lecturer. Students are assigned to write a report on a specific industry sector, a specific market and other related topics of his or her interest, and opportunities for presentation and discussion on their draft reports with their classmates and the lecturer are given toward the end of the semester. Apart from these courses, a full semester Course C “Evolution of Industry, Business and Engineering Practice in the Global Economy,” utilizing collaborative learning approach, was proposed by the lead author in 1998, and was partially taught at American and Japanese universities, utilizing the Proceedings of the ASME Engineering & Technology Management Group Symposia at IMECE 2000–2002.1)–3) The surveys were conducted concerning the student’s interest of industry sectors, lecture topics, and international topics both at the beginning and at the end of the semester. In addition, surveys to sense students’ new discovery from lectures for all course modules and those to sense useful knowledge in their career planning and in general were conducted at the end of all classes. The results of surveys show that students found the discussion opportunities valuable to gain broader perspectives and insights into their own subject of study when writing their reports, by learning what their classmates are studying and from classmates’ comments. This paper also discusses what motivates students in learning, what influences students’ general, specific, and career interests, and how students’ interests may change from the beginning to the end of the semester for which these courses are given.

The Value of a Space Precursor Analysis Program: A Saturn Example

There is general agreement that “near miss” or “close call” data is valuable to the space program and whenever NASA becomes convinced that such events have occurred they have acted responsibly and quickly to address them. The problem lies in defining what constitutes a near miss in a system that is inherently very complex, such that ‘abnormalities’ are actually normal occurrences, and yet one that is relatively reliable because of the inherent strengths incorporated into the design, such as robustness, redundancy, and functional diversity. The question becomes: what would the consideration of failure precursors add to the insights to be drawn from history as it relates to forecasting future performance? This paper will use the example of the Saturn program to address the problems involved in forecasting the risk in complex, yet reasonably reliable programs and to indicate preliminary approaches for use in establishing a space industry precursor program.