scholarly journals Scenario Storyline in Context of Decarbonization Pathways for a Future European Energy System

2021 ◽  
pp. 9-25
Author(s):  
Andrea Herbst ◽  
Steffi Schreiber ◽  
Witold-Roger Poganietz ◽  
Angelo Martino ◽  
Dominik Möst
Keyword(s):  
Energy System ◽  
Qualitative Description ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Policy Scenarios

AbstractThis chapter presents a qualitative description of the scenario storylines for the REFLEX project. The scenario descriptions provide the overall qualitative framework for the modeling activities by setting-up two holistic socio-technical scenarios based on different storylines: the moderate renewable scenario (Mod–RES) as reference scenario and the (de-)centralized high renewable scenarios (High–RES) as ambitious policy scenarios. The chapter highlights the definition of main techno-economic framework parameters, macro-economic and societal drivers as well as of the considered political environment.

A Tool for Thermoeconomic Analysis and Optimization of Gas, Steam, and Combined Plants

1997 ◽  
Vol 119 (4) ◽  
pp. 885-892 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Agazzani ◽  
A. F. Massardo
Keyword(s):  
Cost Model ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Physical Structure ◽  
Capital Cost ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Electricity Cost ◽  
Combined Cycles ◽  
Thermodynamic Variables ◽  
Definition Of

The aim of this work is to demonstrate the capability of an original “modular” simulator tool for the thermoeconomic analysis of thermal-energy systems. The approach employed is based on the Thermoeconomic Functional Analysis (T.F.A.), which, through definition of the “functional productive diagram” and the establishment of the capital cost function of each component, allows the marginal costs and the unit product costs, i.e., the “internal economy,” of the functional exergy flows to be obtained in correspondence to the optimum point. The optimum design of the system is obtained utilizing a traditional optimization technique, which includes both physical structure of the energy system described in terms of thermodynamic variables and cost model (capital cost of the components, maintenance and amortization factors, unit fuel cost, unit electricity cost, etc.). As an application example to show the practicability of the tool, the thermoeconomic analysis of various complex multipressure combined cycles (with or without steam reheating) is carried out. The results are analyzed and discussed in depth.

scholarly journals ARE THE PARIS AGREEMENT EFFORTS EQUALLY SHARED? GDP AND CO2 PRODUCTION REGULARITIES

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (310) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Adalmir Antonio Marquetti ◽  
Gabriel Mendoza Pichardo ◽  
Guilherme De Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Co2 Production ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Kaya Identity

<p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p><strong></strong>This study investigates regularities in the production of GDP and CO2 emissions for 84 countries between 1980-2014. The empirical strategy is derived from an ecological-economic framework in which both outputs are produced employing capital, energy and labor. Moreover, we propose an expanded version of the Kaya identity, which creates a link between the growth rate of CO2 emissions and capital accumulation to evaluate the distribution of abatement efforts under the Paris Agreement. By using a new dataset, we found evidence of relative decoupling in developing countries and absolute decoupling in some developed countries. Our findings show that the individual voluntary definition of the emission targets under the Agreement resulted in an unequal distribution of the abatement efforts among developing and developed countries. In the absence of higher energy or environment-saving technical changes, the required reductions in capital accumulation are sharper for developing than developed countries.</p><p> </p><p>¿SE COMPARTEN LOS ESFUERZOS DEL ACUERDO DE PARÍS IGUALMENTE? <br />REGULARIDADES DE PRODUCCIÓN DEL PIB Y CO2<br /><strong></strong></p><p><strong>RESUMEN</strong><br />Este trabajo investiga las regularidades en la producción del PIB y las emisiones de CO2 en 84 países entre 1980 y 2014. La estrategia empírica deriva de un marco ecológico-económico en el cual los dos bienes se producen utilizando capital, energía y trabajo. Proponemos una versión expandida de la identidad de Kaya que crea un vínculo entre la tasa de crecimiento de las emisiones de CO2 y la acumulación de capital para evaluar la distribución de los esfuerzos de abatimiento del Acuerdo de París. Mediante el uso de una nueva base de datos, encontramos un desacoplamiento relativo en los países en desarrollo y un desacoplamiento absoluto en algunos países desarrollados. Nuestros hallazgos muestran que la definición individual voluntaria de las metas de emisiones del Acuerdo resulta en una distribución desigual de los esfuerzos de abatimiento entre los países en desarrollo y desarrollados. En ausencia de un mayor cambio técnico ahorrador de energía o del ambiente, las reducciones requeridas en la acumulación de capital son más agudas para los países en desarrollo que para los desarrollados.</p>

scholarly journals Constructing the Citizen: The Primrose League and the Definition of Citizenship in the Age of Mass Democracy in Britain, 1918-1928

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Hendley
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
British Politics ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Social ◽  
Mass Democracy ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
First Time

Abstract The Primrose League was a patriotic mass organisation nominally independent from, but allied to the British Conservative Party. During the last quarter of the nineteenth century, it politically mobilised large numbers of British women. In addition, through its social activities, the League assisted with the social integration of those holding full political rights with those who did not. The Fourth Reform Act of 1918 fundamentally altered the structure of British politics by tripling the size of the electorate and giving the vote to a significant number of British women for the first time. In this new political environment, Conservatives were concerned with countering the rising Labour Party and limiting the expectations of new voters. After 1918, the Primrose League attempted to define or construct a partisan model of citizenship. The League's model emphasised citizens' duties, individuals' civil rights and the idea of active citizenship. This campaign both helped the Conservative Party to adjust to the new political order and gave the Primrose League a new role to play in the age of mass democracy.

Direct Calculation of Average and Marginal Costs From the Productive Structure of an Energy System

1995 ◽  
Vol 117 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Lazzaretto ◽  
A. Macor
Keyword(s):  
Unit Cost ◽  
Direct Calculation ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Average Unit ◽  
Productive Structure ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Direct Inspection

Most of the thermoeconomic accounting and optimization methods for energy systems are based upon a definition of the productive purpose for each component. On the basis of this definition, a productive structure of the system can be defined in which the interactions among the components are described by their fuel product. The aim of this work is to calculate marginal and average unit costs of the exergy flows starting from their definitions by a direct inspection of the productive structure. As a main result, it is noticed that the only differences between marginal and average unit cost equations are located in the capital cost terms of input-output cost balance equations of the components.

Phonological planes and spaces A quantitative study on five corpora

1996 ◽  
Vol 113-114 ◽  
pp. 349-378
Author(s):  
Marc Bourdeau ◽  
Jean-Pierre Tubach
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Qualitative Description ◽  
French Language ◽  
Statistical Methodology ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Polish Language ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Quantitative Definition

Abstract We describe a statistical methodology that provides a quantitative definition of the concept of phonological space that has been used for a long time as a purely qualitative description of languages. We apply this description to five corpora : four of French language, and one of Polish language. We obtain cartesian planes where the speakers are represented as points. We show that we can discriminate the five corpora. We end by pointing to applications to the learning and destruction of phonological capabilities.

scholarly journals Model predictive control to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak in a multi-region scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Scarabaggio ◽  
Raffaele Carli ◽  
Mariagrazia Dotoli ◽  
Graziana Cavone ◽  
Nicola Epicoco
Keyword(s):  
Model Predictive Control ◽  
Predictive Control ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
Regional Strategies ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Restrictive Measures

The COVID-19 outbreak is deeply influencing the global social and economic framework, due to restrictive measures adopted worldwide by governments to counteract the pandemic contagion. <br>In multi-region areas such as Italy, where the contagion peak has been reached, it is crucial to find targeted and coordinated optimal exit and restarting strategies on a regional basis to effectively cope with possible onset of further epidemic waves, while efficiently returning the economic activities to their standard level of intensity. <br><br>Differently from the related literature, where modeling and controlling the pandemic contagion is typically addressed on a national basis, this paper proposes an optimal control approach that supports governments in defining the most effective strategies to be adopted during post-lockdown mitigation phases in a multi-region scenario.<br>Based on the joint use of a non-linear Model Predictive Control scheme and a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-based epidemiological model, the approach is aimed at minimizing the cost of the so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, mitigation strategies), while ensuring that the capacity of the network of regional healthcare systems is not violated. <br>In addition, the proposed approach supports policy makers in taking targeted intervention decisions on different regions by an integrated and structured model, thus both respecting the specific regional health systems characteristics and improving the system-wide performance by avoiding uncoordinated actions of the regions.<br><br>The methodology is tested on the COVID-19 outbreak data related to the network of Italian regions, showing its effectiveness in properly supporting the definition of effective regional strategies for managing the COVID-19 diffusion.

scholarly journals Model predictive control to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak in a multi-region scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Scarabaggio ◽  
Raffaele Carli ◽  
Mariagrazia Dotoli ◽  
Graziana Cavone ◽  
Nicola Epicoco
Keyword(s):  
Model Predictive Control ◽  
Predictive Control ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
Regional Strategies ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Restrictive Measures

The COVID-19 outbreak is deeply influencing the global social and economic framework, due to restrictive measures adopted worldwide by governments to counteract the pandemic contagion. <br>In multi-region areas such as Italy, where the contagion peak has been reached, it is crucial to find targeted and coordinated optimal exit and restarting strategies on a regional basis to effectively cope with possible onset of further epidemic waves, while efficiently returning the economic activities to their standard level of intensity. <br><br>Differently from the related literature, where modeling and controlling the pandemic contagion is typically addressed on a national basis, this paper proposes an optimal control approach that supports governments in defining the most effective strategies to be adopted during post-lockdown mitigation phases in a multi-region scenario.<br>Based on the joint use of a non-linear Model Predictive Control scheme and a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-based epidemiological model, the approach is aimed at minimizing the cost of the so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, mitigation strategies), while ensuring that the capacity of the network of regional healthcare systems is not violated. <br>In addition, the proposed approach supports policy makers in taking targeted intervention decisions on different regions by an integrated and structured model, thus both respecting the specific regional health systems characteristics and improving the system-wide performance by avoiding uncoordinated actions of the regions.<br><br>The methodology is tested on the COVID-19 outbreak data related to the network of Italian regions, showing its effectiveness in properly supporting the definition of effective regional strategies for managing the COVID-19 diffusion.

scholarly journals Weibo Rumor Recognition Based on Communication and Stacking Ensemble Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yu Wu ◽  
Yan Zeng ◽  
Jie Yang ◽  
Zhenni Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Learning ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Qualitative Description ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
The Public ◽  
Quantitative Calculation ◽  
Traditional Classification ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Information Recognition

Research on the identification of rumors in cyberspace helps to discover social issues that are of concern to the public and are not easily found, and it also can help to purify cyberspace and to maintain social stability. However, the real complexity of rumors makes it difficult for its recognition technology to bridge the semantic gap between qualitative description and quantitative calculation of rumors. Firstly, the existing rumor definitions are mostly qualitative descriptions, so we propose a technical definition of Internet rumors to facilitate quantitative calculations. Secondly, since the feature set used in rumor recognition research is not effective, by combining with communication, we construct a more suitable feature set for rumor recognition. Thirdly, aiming at the problem that traditional classification algorithms are not suitable for complex rumor information recognition, a rumor recognition method based on Stacking ensemble learning is proposed. Our experiment results show that the proposed method has higher accuracy, less algorithm execution time, and better practical application effect.

scholarly journals Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization

2019 ◽  
Vol 162 (4) ◽  
pp. 1857-1875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoi Vrontisi ◽  
Kostas Fragkiadakis ◽  
Maria Kannavou ◽  
Pantelis Capros
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Carbon Intensity ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts

Abstract The European Union has recently established the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” climate policy framework, aiming at the achievement of the European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the Paris Agreement. The EU28 NDC includes a commitment for emission reductions in 2030 but also refers to an economy-wide effort towards 2050 so as to contribute effectively to the long-term mitigation of climate change. We discuss the respective EU28 emission pathways in the context of a well below 2 °C global climate stabilization target and estimate the macroeconomic impacts for the EU28 economy by considering alternative levels of climate action for major non-EU emitters. We employ two models, the technology-rich energy system model PRIMES, and the global large-scale hybrid computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The two models are soft linked so as to ensure a consistent and robust framework of analysis. We find that emission reductions in the energy supply sector are dominant up to 2030 while transport takes the lead in 2050. Transport and non-CO2 emissions are the main remaining emitting sources in 2050. We present the key decarbonization pillars and confirm that the impacts on the EU28 economy largely depend on the level of mitigation action adopted by the rest of the world and by the relative carbon intensity across regions. Due to asymmetric ambition of climate policies, a global implementation of NDCs results in economic losses for the EU28 when compared with a “pre-Paris” policy reference scenario, despite positive effects on energy-intensive and clean technology exports. On the contrary, we find that the region registers economic gains in the case of coordinated 2 °C global climate action.

scholarly journals Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng Li ◽  
Jingying Fu ◽  
Gang Lin ◽  
Dong Jiang ◽  
Kun Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Structure Optimization ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Hebei Province ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
The Impact

In view of the complexity of the energy system and its complex relationship with socio-economic factors, this study adopts the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, a technology-based, bottom-up approach, scenario-based analysis, to develop a systematic analysis of the current and future energy consumption, supply and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. The impact of various energy policies on the energy system in Hebei Province was analysed by considering four scenarios: a Reference Scenario (REF), Industrial Structure Optimization Scenario (ISO), Terminal Consumption Structure Optimization Scenario (TOS) and Low-carbon Development Scenario (LCD). By designing strategic policies from the perspective of industrial adjustment, aggressive energy structure policies and measures, such as the ISO and the TOS, and even more aggressive options, such as the LCD, where the percentage of cleaner alternative energy sources has been further increased, it has been indicated that energy consumption will have increased from 321.618 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the REF, with a corresponding increase in GHG emissions from 920.56 million metric tonnes (Mt) to 2262.81 Mt. In contrast, the more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the LCD, which combines the ISO with the policy-oriented TOS, can lower energy consumption by 50.82% and CO2 emissions by 64.26%. The results shed light on whether and how these scenarios can shape the energy-carbon emission reduction trajectories and develop the low-carbon pathways in Hebei Province.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document