scholarly journals Evidence exclusive labels in cognitive research cause unstable prevalence estimates over time

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (S10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Connor Duncan Richardson ◽  
Blossom CM Stephan ◽  
Louise Robinson ◽  
Carol Brayne ◽  
Fiona E Matthews ◽  
...  
Janus Head ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-225
Author(s):  
Heather Fox ◽  

Katherine Anne Porter submitted a group of stories called “Legend and Memory” to The Atlantic Monthly in 1934, but instead of the reception she hoped for, The Atlantic Monthly responded with a request for significant revisions. These recommendations, as Porter adamantly explained, would change the collective meaning of the stories. And yet, Porter ultimately chose to concede, publishing the stories separately in other magazines before finally collecting them together again in The Leaning Tower and Other Stories (1944). Over the next twenty years, Porter would publish the stories (later called The Old Order stories) in two more collections— The Leaning Tower and Other Stories, The Old Order: Stories of the South from The Leaning Tower, Pale Horse, Pale Rider, and Flowering Judas and The Collected Stories of Katherine Anne Porter. Each time she chose not to edit individual stories but rearranged the order of the stories. Individually, each story is like a sketch, or one component of the protagonist Miranda’s construct of identity from the perspective of an adult looking backward and remembering as a child. And yet collectively, these stories reveal memory’s process of reconstruction and how the perspective of time transforms event through addition, elimination, and arrangement. Using text, correspondence, manuscripts, and cognitive research to examine the progression of Porter’s work on The Old Order stories in three collections over more than thirty years, “Representations of Truth: The Significance of Order in Katherine Anne Porter’s The Old Order Stories” traces the progressive ordering of these stories from their original submission to their final collection in The Collected Stories of Katherine Anne Porter (1965). This essay argues that Porter’s rearrangements reflect a reconstructive process of memory. Over time, the reorganization of The Old Order stories demonstrate a shift in Miranda’s memories from a chronological positioning to a representational ordering, allowing Miranda to reexamine her perspective on past experiences.


1995 ◽  
Vol 166 (4) ◽  
pp. 462-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Fombonne

BackgroundThis paper examines the evidence that rates of anorexia nervosa have increased over time.MethodEpidemiological studies that have provided time trends in incidence rates in specific countries or psychiatric registers and prevalence surveys were reviewed to assess whether or not prevalence estimates are higher in the most recent studies.ResultsEstimated trends in incidence rates showed an increase but no study ruled out plausible alternative explanations. Studies showing no upward trend were as numerous and were generally based on larger samples. Analysis of 29 cross-sectional surveys conducted over the last 25 years indicated that the median prevalence rate was 1.3 per 1000 females. There was no indication that more recent surveys yielded higher prevalence rates.ConclusionAnorexia nervosa remains a rare disorder and there is no evidence of a secular increase in its incidence.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayley Boxall ◽  
Siobhan Lawler

A key assumption in the domestic violence literature is that abuse escalates in severity and frequency over time. However, very little is known about how violence and abuse unfolds within intimate relationships and there is no consensus on how escalation should be defined or how prevalent it is. A narrative review of the literature identified two primary definitions of escalation: a pattern of increasingly frequent and/or severe violent incidents, or the occurrence of specific violent acts (ie outcomes). Escalation appears to be limited to serious or prolific offenders rather than characterising all abusive relationships. However, disparities in prevalence estimates between those provided by victim–survivors and recorded incident data highlight the difficulty of measuring this aspect of abusive relationships.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 360-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. O'Donnell ◽  
S. Vanderloo ◽  
L. McRae ◽  
J. Onysko ◽  
S. B. Patten ◽  
...  

Background.To compare trends in the estimated prevalence of mood and/or anxiety disorders identified from two data sources (self-report and administrative). Reviewing, synthesising and interpreting data from these two sources will help identify potential factors that underlie the observed estimates and inform public health action.Method.We used self-reported, diagnosed mood and/or anxiety disorder cases from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) across a 5-year span (from 2003 to 2009) to estimate the prevalence among the Canadian population aged ≥15 years. We also estimated the prevalence of mood and/or anxiety disorders using the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System (CCDSS), which identified cases using ICD-9/-10-CA codes from physician billing claims and hospital discharge records during the same time period. The prevalence rates for mood and/or anxiety disorders were compared across the CCHS and CCDSS by age and sex for all available years of data from 2003 to 2009. Summary rates were age-standardised to the Canadian population as of 1 October 1991.Results.In 2009, the prevalence of mood and/or anxiety disorders was 9.4% using self-reported data v. 11.3% using administrative data. Prevalence rates obtained from administrative data were consistently higher than those from self-report for both men and women. However, due to an increase in the prevalence of self-reported cases, these differences decreased over time (rate ratios for both sexes: 1.6–1.2). Prevalence estimates were consistently higher among females compared with males irrespective of data source. While differences in the prevalence estimates between the two data sources were evident across all age groups, the reduction of these differences was greater among adolescent, young and middle-aged adults compared with those 70 years and older.Conclusions.The overall narrowing of differences over time reflects a convergence of information regarding the prevalence of mood and/or anxiety disorders trends between self-report and administrative data sources. While the administrative data-based prevalences remained relatively stable, the self-reported prevalences increased over time. These observations may reflect positive societal changes in the perceptions of mental health (declining stigma) and/or increasing mental health literacy. Additional research using non-ecological data is required to further our understanding of the observed findings and trends, including a data linkage exercise permitting a comparison of prevalence estimates and population characteristics from these two data sources both separately and merged.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sotiris Georganas ◽  
Alina Velias ◽  
Sotiris Vandoros

AbstractTimely, accurate epidemic figures are necessary for informed policy. In the Covid-19 pandemic, mismeasurement can lead to tremendous waste, in health or economic output. “Random” testing is commonly used to estimate virus prevalence, reporting daily positivity rates. However, since testing is necessarily voluntary, all “random” tests done in the field suffer from selection bias. This bias, unlike standard polling biases, goes beyond demographical representativeness and cannot be corrected by oversampling (i.e. selecting people without symptoms to test). Using controlled, incentivized experiments on a sample of all ages, we show that people who feel symptoms are up to 33 times more likely to seek testing. The bias in testing propensities leads to sizable prevalence bias: test positivity is inflated by up to five times, even if testing is costless. This effect varies greatly across time and age groups, making comparisons over time and across countries misleading. We validate our results using the REACT study in the UK and find that positivity figures have indeed a very large and time varying bias. We present calculations to debias positivity rates, but importantly, suggest a parsimonious way to sample the population bypassing the bias altogether. Our estimation is both real-time and consistently close to true values. These results are relevant for all epidemics, besides covid-19, when carriers have informative beliefs about their own status.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Tumilowicz ◽  
Ty Beal ◽  
Lynnette M Neufeld ◽  
Edward A Frongillo

ABSTRACT Improving nutritional status during adolescence is an opportunity to improve the lives of this generation and the next. Estimating the burden of malnutrition at a population level is fundamental to targeting interventions and measuring progress over time, and for adolescents, we usually depend on survey data and the 2007 WHO Growth Reference to do so. There is substantial risk of misguided conclusions regarding adolescent prevalence estimates, however, when underlying methodological limitations of the indicators and reference are not adequately considered. We use national prevalence estimates among girls and young women 10–22 y of age from the 2014 State of Food Security and Nutrition in Bangladesh report as an example to demonstrate that determining the true prevalence of undernutrition, overweight, and obesity is complicated by racial/ethnic variation across populations in timing of the adolescent growth spurt, growth potential, and body build. Further challenging the task are inherent limitations of the body mass index as an indicator of thinness and adiposity, and cutoffs that poorly distinguish a well-nourished population from a malnourished one. We provide recommendations for adolescent nutrition policy and program decision-making, emphasizing the importance of 1) critically interpreting indicators and distributions by age when using the 2007 WHO Growth Reference; 2) examining what is happening before and after adolescence, when interpretation of anthropometry is more straightforward, as well as trends over time; and 3) complementing anthropometry with other information, particularly dietary intake. Finally, we advocate that nutrition researchers prioritize exploration of better methods to predict peak height velocity, for development of standardized indicators to measure dietary quality among adolescents, and for studies that will illuminate causal paths so that we can effectively improve adolescent dietary intake and nutritional status.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnoldas Pautienius ◽  
Katja Schulz ◽  
Christoph Staubach ◽  
Juozas Grigas ◽  
Ruta Zagrabskaite ◽  
...  

Abstract The first cases of African swine fever (ASF) were detected in the Lithuanian wild boar population in 2014. Since then, the disease spread slowly through the whole country, affecting both, wild boar and domestic pigs. In the other Baltic states, which both are also affected by ASF since 2014, the recent course of ASF prevalence suggests that the countries might be well under way of disease elimination. In contrast, in Lithuania the epidemic seems to be still in full progress. In the present study, we aimed to extend a previous prevalence study in Lithuania. Looking at ASF virus (ASFV) and seroprevalence estimates of wild boar in all months of 2018 and in all affected municipalities in Lithuania, the course of ASF was evaluated on a temporal and spatial scale. A non-spatial beta-binomial model was used to correct for under- or overestimation of the average prevalence estimates. Within 2018 no big differences between the prevalence estimates were seen over time. Despite of the lower sample size, highest ASFV prevalence estimates were found in dead wild boar, suggesting higher detection rates through passive surveillance than through active surveillance. Accordingly, with the maximum prevalence of 87.5% in May 2018, the ASFV prevalence estimates were very high in wild boar found dead. The number of samples originating from hunted animals (active surveillance) predominated clearly. However, the ASFV prevalence in those animals was lower with a maximum value of 2.1%, emphasizing the high value of passive surveillance. A slight increase of the seroprevalence in hunted wild boar could be seen over time. In the center of Lithuania, a cluster of municipalities with high ASFV and seroprevalence estimates was found. The results of the study indicate that ASFV is still circulating within the Lithuanian wild boar population, constituting a permanent risk of disease transmission into domestic pig holdings. However, additional, more recent data analyses are necessary to re-evaluate the course of ASF in Lithuania and thus, to be able to make a statement about the stage of the ASF epidemic in the country. This is of huge importance for Lithuania for evaluating control measures and their efficacy, but also for neighbouring countries to assess the risk of disease spread from Lithuania.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Famke J. M. Mölenberg ◽  
Chris de Vries ◽  
Alex Burdorf ◽  
Frank J. van Lenthe

Abstract Background Most health surveys have experienced a decline in response rates. A structured approach to evaluate whether a decreasing - and potentially more selective - response over time biased estimated trends in health behaviours is lacking. We developed a framework to explore the role of differential non-response over time. This framework was applied to a repeated cross-sectional survey in which the response rate gradually declined. Methods We used data from a survey conducted biannually between 1995 and 2017 in the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Information on the sociodemographic determinants of age, sex, and ethnicity was available for respondents and non-respondents. The main outcome measures of prevalence of sport participation and watching TV were only available for respondents. The framework consisted of four steps: 1) investigating the sociodemographic determinants of responding to the survey and the difference in response over time between sociodemographic groups; 2) estimating variation in health behaviour over time; 3) comparing weighted and unweighted prevalence estimates of health behaviour over time; and 4) comparing associations between sociodemographic determinants and health behaviour over time. Results The overall response rate per survey declined from 47% in 1995 to 15% in 2017. The probability of responding was higher among older people, females, and those with a Western background. The response rate declined in all subgroups, and a faster decline was observed among younger persons and those with a non-Western ethnicity as compared to older persons and those with a Western ethnicity. Variation in health behaviours remained constant. Prevalence estimates and associations did not follow the changes in response over time. On the contrary, the difference in probability of participating in sport gradually decreased between males and females, while no differential change in the response rate was observed. Conclusions Providing insights on non-response patterns over time is essential to understand whether declines in response rates may have influenced estimated trends in health behaviours. The framework outlined in this study can be used for this purpose. In our example, in spite of a major decline in response rate, there was no evidence that the risk of non-response bias increased over time.


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