scholarly journals Prediction of in‐hospital mortality with machine learning for COVID‐19 patients treated with steroid and Remdesivir

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiki Kuno ◽  
Yuki Sahashi ◽  
Shinpei Kawahito ◽  
Mai Takahashi ◽  
Masao Iwagami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hospital Mortality

scholarly journals LEVERAGING MACHINE LEARNING MODELS TO PREDICT IN-HOSPITAL MORTALITY AFTER MITRACLIP

2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (18) ◽  
pp. 940
Author(s):  
Chayakrit Krittanawong ◽  
Hafeez Ul Hassan Virk ◽  
Joshua Hahn ◽  
Fu'ad Al-Azzam ◽  
Kevin Greason ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

scholarly journals Characterising risk of in-hospital mortality following cardiac arrest using machine learning: A retrospective international registry study

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e1002709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane Nanayakkara ◽  
Sam Fogarty ◽  
Michael Tremeer ◽  
Kelvin Ross ◽  
Brent Richards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Registry Study ◽  
International Registry

scholarly journals Machine Learning-based in-hospital Mortality Prediction Models for Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ke ◽  
Yiwei Chen ◽  
Xiaoping Wang ◽  
Zhiyong Wu ◽  
qiongyao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
Coronary Syndrome

Abstract BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to evaluate the performance of traditional regression and machine learning prediction models.MethodsThe data of ACS patients who entered the emergency department of Fujian Provincial Hospital from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020 for chest pain were retrospectively collected. The study used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality of ACS patients. The traditional regression and machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models, and the sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each model.ResultsA total of 7810 ACS patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.75%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that age and levels of D-dimer, cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and calcium channel blockers were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The study found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the models developed by logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality were 0.963, 0.960, 0.963, and 0.959, respectively. Feature importance evaluation found that NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol were top three variables that contribute the most to the prediction performance of the GBDT model and random forest model.ConclusionsThe predictive model developed using logistic regression, GBDT, random forest, and SVM algorithms can be used to predict the risk of in-hospital death of ACS patients. Based on our findings, we recommend that clinicians focus on monitoring the changes of NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol, as this may improve the clinical outcomes of ACS patients.

scholarly journals Machine Learning to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Patients Using Computed Tomography-Derived Pulmonary and Vascular Features

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 501
Author(s):  
Simone Schiaffino ◽  
Marina Codari ◽  
Andrea Cozzi ◽  
Domenico Albano ◽  
Marco Alì ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Computed Tomography ◽  
Pulmonary Artery ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Chest Ct ◽  
Multilayer Perceptrons ◽  
Emergency Department Admission ◽  
Pulmonary Artery Diameter

Pulmonary parenchymal and vascular damage are frequently reported in COVID-19 patients and can be assessed with unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT), widely used as a triaging exam. Integrating clinical data, chest CT features, and CT-derived vascular metrics, we aimed to build a predictive model of in-hospital mortality using univariate analysis (Mann–Whitney U test) and machine learning models (support vectors machines (SVM) and multilayer perceptrons (MLP)). Patients with RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and unenhanced chest CT performed on emergency department admission were included after retrieving their outcome (discharge or death), with an 85/15% training/test dataset split. Out of 897 patients, the 229 (26%) patients who died during hospitalization had higher median pulmonary artery diameter (29.0 mm) than patients who survived (27.0 mm, p < 0.001) and higher median ascending aortic diameter (36.6 mm versus 34.0 mm, p < 0.001). SVM and MLP best models considered the same ten input features, yielding a 0.747 (precision 0.522, recall 0.800) and 0.844 (precision 0.680, recall 0.567) area under the curve, respectively. In this model integrating clinical and radiological data, pulmonary artery diameter was the third most important predictor after age and parenchymal involvement extent, contributing to reliable in-hospital mortality prediction, highlighting the value of vascular metrics in improving patient stratification.

scholarly journals A machine learning predictive model of in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated by anemia: a retrospective study based on the MIMIC-III database

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaobin Liu ◽  
Yu Zhao ◽  
Yingyi Qin ◽  
Dan Wang ◽  
Xi Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Comorbidity Index ◽  
Mimic Iii

Abstract BackgroudPatients with sepsis complicated by anemia have a higher risk of mortality. It is clinically important to study the risk factors associated with the prognosis of this disease. The aim of this study was to establish a predictive model of mortality during hospitalization by extracting clinical data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. MethodsThe clinical data of patients with sepsis complicated by anemia in the MIMIC-III database were retrospectively analyzed. Indexes were screened by stepwise logistic regression (LR), and machine learning predictive models such as Decision Tree (DT), Random Forests (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were developed and compared, identifying advantages and disadvantages of each model. ResultsA total of 13,547 patients with sepsis complicated by anemia were included in the study, among which 1,827 died during hospitalization and 11,720 were still alive at discharge. The preliminary stepwise regression model selected 20 clinical indexes, including Elixhauser comorbidity index, maximum blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and maximum hemoglobin reduction. The predictive models showed good discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]:LR, 0.777; DT, 0.726; RF, 0.788; XGBoost, 0.815) and goodness of fit (area under the precision-recall curve [AUPRC]: LR, 0.350; DT, 0.290; RF, 0.400; XGBoost, 0.428). The Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values in the XGBoost model showed that Elixhauser comorbidity index, maximum BUN, maximum hemoglobin reduction, ventilator use within 24 hours of admission, and age were significant features for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated by anemia. ConclusionsThe XGBoost model had better discrimination ability and goodness of fit when compared with other models. Machine learning algorithms have significant practical value in the development of an early warning system for patients with sepsis complicated by anemia.

scholarly journals Machine-learning to Improve Prediction of Mortality following Acute Myocardial Infarction: An Assessment in the NCDR-Chest Pain-Myocardial Infarction Registry

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohan Khera ◽  
Julian Haimovich ◽  
Nate Hurley ◽  
Robert McNamara ◽  
John A Spertus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Gradient Descent ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
C Statistic

ABSTRACTIntroductionAccurate prediction of risk of death following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) can guide the triage of care services and shared decision-making. Contemporary machine-learning may improve risk-prediction by identifying complex relationships between predictors and outcomes.Methods and ResultsWe studied 993,905 patients in the American College of Cardiology Chest Pain-MI Registry hospitalized with AMI (mean age 64 ± 13 years, 34% women) between January 2011 and December 2016. We developed and validated three machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality and compared the performance characteristics with a logistic regression model. In an independent validation cohort, we compared logistic regression with lasso regularization (c-statistic, 0.891 [95% CI, 0.890-0.892]), gradient descent boosting (c-statistic, 0.902 [0.901-0.903]), and meta-classification that combined gradient descent boosting with a neural network (c-statistic, 0.904 [0.903-0.905]) with traditional logistic regression (c-statistic, 0.882 [0.881-0.883]). There were improvements in classification of individuals across the spectrum of patient risk with each of the three methods; the meta-classifier model – our best performing model - reclassified 20.9% of individuals deemed high-risk for mortality in logistic regression appropriately as low-to-moderate risk, and 8.2% of deemed low-risk to moderate-to-high risk based consistent with the actual event rates.ConclusionsMachine-learning methods improved the prediction of in-hospital mortality for AMI compared with logistic regression. Machine learning methods enhance the utility of risk models developed using traditional statistical approaches through additional exploration of the relationship between variables and outcomes.

scholarly journals Prediction of in-hospital mortality of Clostriodiodes difficile infection using critical care database: a big data-driven, machine learning approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e000761
Author(s):  
Hao Du ◽  
Kewin Tien Ho Siah ◽  
Valencia Zhang Ru-Yan ◽  
Readon Teh ◽  
Christopher Yu En Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Critical Care ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Severity Scores ◽  
Mimic Iii ◽  
Care Database

Research objectivesClostriodiodes difficile infection (CDI) is a major cause of healthcare-associated diarrhoea with high mortality. There is a lack of validated predictors for severe outcomes in CDI. The aim of this study is to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for CDI in-hospital mortality using a large critical care database.MethodologyThe demographics, clinical parameters, laboratory results and mortality of CDI were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database. We subsequently trained three machine learning models: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) to predict in-hospital mortality. The individual performances of the models were compared against current severity scores (Clostridiodes difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS) and ATLAS (Age, Treatment with systemic antibiotics, leukocyte count, Albumin and Serum creatinine as a measure of renal function) by calculating area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). We identified factors associated with higher mortality risk in each model.Summary of resultsFrom 61 532 intensive care unit stays in the MIMIC-III database, there were 1315 CDI cases. The mortality rate for CDI in the study cohort was 18.33%. AUROC was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.76) for LR, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.77) for RF and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.78) for GBM, while previously AUROC was 0.57 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.65) for CARDS and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.70) for ATLAS. Albumin, lactate and bicarbonate were significant mortality factors for all the models. Free calcium, potassium, white blood cell, urea, platelet and mean blood pressure were present in at least two of the three models.ConclusionOur machine learning derived CDI in-hospital mortality prediction model identified pertinent factors that can assist critical care clinicians in identifying patients at high risk of dying from CDI.

scholarly journals Early prediction of in-hospital death of COVID-19 patients: a machine-learning model based on age, blood analyses, and chest x-ray score

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emirena Garrafa ◽  
Marika Vezzoli ◽  
Marco Ravanelli ◽  
Davide Farina ◽  
Andrea Borghesi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Hospital Death ◽  
Web Based ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Chest X Ray ◽  
Blood Analytes ◽  
Second Wave

An early-warning model to predict in-hospital mortality on admission of COVID-19 patients at an emergency department (ED) was developed and validate using a Machine-Learning model. In total, 2782 patients were enrolled between March 2020 and December 2020, including 2106 patients (first wave) and 676 patients (second wave) in the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The first-wave patients were divided into two groups with 1474 patients used to train the model, and 632 to validate it. The 676 patients in the second wave were used to test the model. Age, 17 blood analytes and Brescia chest X-ray score were the variables processed using a Random Forests classification algorithm to build and validate the model. ROC analysis was used to assess the model performances. A web-based death-risk calculator was implemented and integrated within the Laboratory Information System of the hospital. The final score was constructed by age (the most powerful predictor), blood analytes (the strongest predictors were lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer, Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein, Lymphocyte %, Ferritin std and Monocyte %), and Brescia chest X-ray score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve obtained for the three groups (training, validating and testing) were 0.98, 0.83 and 0.78, respectively. The model predicts in-hospital mortality on the basis of data that can be obtained in a short time, directly at the ED on admission. It functions as a web-based calculator, providing a risk score which is easy to interpret. It can be used in the triage process to support the decision on patient allocation.

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